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  • Money-Market Rates Rise, Defy Central Bank Measures

    Money-Market Rates Rise, Defy Central Bank Measures
    http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?p...k7Q&refer=home

    Money-Market Rates Rise, Defy Central Bank Measures (Update4)

    By Gavin Finch

    March 25 (Bloomberg) -- The cost of borrowing in dollars, euros and pounds for three months or less rose as efforts by policy makers to revive lending failed to stop banks from hoarding cash.

    The three-month London interbank offered rate, or Libor, for dollars increased 5 basis points to 2.66 percent, the highest level since March 14, the British Bankers' Association said today. The comparable euro rate climbed 2 basis points to 4.70 percent, the highest since Dec. 27.

    ``There's really only a handful of banks that are offering cash,'' said Ronald Tharun, a money-market trader at a unit of Landesbank Baden-Wuerttemberg, Germany's biggest state-owned bank. ``Everyone is just waiting for the next bank to go down. There is no trust in the market. They're very afraid.''

    Banks are unwilling to lend to all but the safest borrowers after at least $200 billion in losses and writedowns since the start of 2007. Bear Stearns Cos. had to be rescued by JPMorgan Chase & Co. last week after a run on the bank. Central banks agreed this month to inject $240 billion into the banking system to counter the credit squeeze.

    Credit losses linked to the collapse of the U.S. subprime- mortgage market will probably swell to $460 billion, Andrew Tilton, New York-based senior economist at Goldman Sachs Group Inc., wrote in a report yesterday.

    Central Bank Loans

    The difference between the rate banks charge for three-month dollar loans relative to the overnight indexed swap rate showed a decline in the availability of cash today. The so-called Libor- OIS spread widened 7 basis points to 64 basis points. It averaged 8 basis points in the first half of 2007.

    The cost of borrowing in euros rose even after the European Central Bank provided 216 billion euros ($336.5 billion) of cash to banks today, 50 billion euros more than it estimated was needed. The marginal rate was 4.23 percent, up from 4.16 percent last week.

    The ECB also said it loaned banks $15 billion for 28 days in a separate dollar auction with the Federal Reserve. The Fed said it received 88 bidders at its auction of $50 billion of loans yesterday.

    ``There's still a lot of uncertainty in the market,'' said Jan Misch, money-market trader at Landesbank Baden-Wuerttemberg in Stuttgart. ``Banks are hesitant to lend among each other and nervous due to the closing of the quarter.''

    `Credit Bubble'

    The three-month rate for pounds climbed 1 basis point to 6 percent, its 11th straight increase, according to the BBA. The Bank of England injected an extra 5 billion pounds ($10 billion) in loans last week.

    Concerted central bank action announced Dec. 12 temporarily eased the credit shortage at the end of last year. Still, money- market rates began rising again this month, prompting a second round of emergency lending.

    ``Institutions still have written off less than half of the losses associated with the bursting of the credit bubble,'' Goldman Sachs's Tilton wrote. ``There is light at the end of the tunnel, but it's still rather dim.''

    Merrill Lynch & Co. fell for the first time in three days today after JPMorgan cut its 2008 profit estimate for the third- largest U.S. securities firm by 45 percent on concern that further writedowns may reduce earnings.

    Merrill slipped 93 cents, or 1.9 percent, to $47.45 by 11:26 a.m. in New York Stock Exchange composite trading. The stock has fallen 44 percent over the past year, compared with a 27 percent decline in the Standard and Poor's 500 Financials Index.

  • #2
    Treasuries Rally as U.S. Consumer Confidence, Home Prices Fall

    Treasuries Rally as U.S. Consumer Confidence, Home Prices Fall
    http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?p...nT4&refer=home

    Treasuries Rally as U.S. Consumer Confidence, Home Prices Fall

    By Sandra Hernandez

    March 25 (Bloomberg) -- Treasuries rose as industry reports showed U.S. consumer confidence fell this month to a five-year low and home prices slumped, underscoring concern that the economy has entered a recession.

    Treasuries outperformed European bonds on speculation the Federal Reserve will cut borrowing costs at a more aggressive pace than the European Central Bank. Government debt also gained after JPMorgan Chase & Co. cut its profit estimate for Merrill Lynch & Co. on concern that it may report more writedowns.

    The Fed's efforts to boost confidence in financial markets ``cannot address the fundamental issues, which are a decline in home prices, the decline in consumer confidence, the very significant oversupply of housing,'' said Amitabh Arora, head of global interest-rate strategy in New York at Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc., one of the 20 primary dealers that trade with the central bank.

    The yield on the 10-year note fell 5 basis points, or 0.05 percentage point, to 3.50 percent as of 11:55 a.m. in New York, according to bond broker Cantor Fitzgerald LP. The price of the 3 1/2 percent note due February 2018 rose almost 1/2, or $5 per $1,000 face amount, to 99 31/32. Two-year yields declined 7 basis points to 1.74 percent.

    Arora advises buying two-year notes and to bet on a wider gap between their yields and those of longer-dated Treasuries.
    3m T-Bill yield @1.3

    Comment


    • #3
      Re: Money-Market Rates Rise, Defy Central Bank Measures

      Originally posted by Sapiens View Post
      Money-Market Rates Rise, Defy Central Bank Measures
      http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?p...k7Q&refer=home
      I'm sorry to hear about this. I'm considering refying into a LIBOR based arm that caps at 5% over the initial rate (assuming I understand the terms correctly). I'm not about to do it unless LIBOR drops low enough that the fully indexed max rate would be not much higher than my current fixed rate. But it's a race between LIBOR and the value of my house. If the value drops too quickly ahead of LIBOR, I won't have enough equity. If LIBOR's going in the wrong direction I'll have to stay put.

      Thanks for the post, Sapiens.

      Comment


      • #4
        Re: Money-Market Rates Rise, Defy Central Bank Measures

        Originally posted by Andreuccio View Post
        I'm sorry to hear about this. I'm considering refying into a LIBOR based arm that caps at 5% over the initial rate (assuming I understand the terms correctly). I'm not about to do it unless LIBOR drops low enough that the fully indexed max rate would be not much higher than my current fixed rate. But it's a race between LIBOR and the value of my house. If the value drops too quickly ahead of LIBOR, I won't have enough equity. If LIBOR's going in the wrong direction I'll have to stay put.

        Thanks for the post, Sapiens.
        This sounds like DE-flation to me. Yet, the prices are hyper-inflating at the supermarket and the filling-station, even at Wal Mart. What a mess!

        For this, we need a Federal Reserve?????????? This is the mess that Greenspan made!

        We would have been far far better off if the Fed would have let the economy deflate gently into a mild recession back in 2001. But the idiots at the Fed tinkered, and here we are now.

        Comment


        • #5
          Re: Money-Market Rates Rise, Defy Central Bank Measures

          Originally posted by Starving Steve View Post
          This sounds like DE-flation to me. Yet, the prices are hyper-inflating at the supermarket and the filling-station, even at Wal Mart. What a mess!

          For this, we need a Federal Reserve?????????? This is the mess that Greenspan made!

          We would have been far far better off if the Fed would have let the economy deflate gently into a mild recession back in 2001. But the idiots at the Fed tinkered, and here we are now.
          To learn more about Why is the US Economy Crashing? read the interview with Dr. Steven Keen of Australia. In it EJ discusses America's unique post credit bubble dual demand destruction spirals.

          Cash/Goods Price Inflation Spiral:
          Negative GDP growth
          Declining dollar
          Rising import prices
          Traded-goods cost-push inflation

          Credit/Assets Price Deflation Spiral:
          Asset price deflation
          Declining collateral values
          Credit Contraction
          Non-traded goods price deflation

          Both spirals feed into:
          Declining household and business cash flow
          Bankruptcy
          Unemployment
          Declining incomes

          Ed.

          Comment


          • #6
            Re: Money-Market Rates Rise, Defy Central Bank Measures

            Originally posted by FRED View Post
            To learn more about Why is the US Economy Crashing? read the interview with Dr. Steven Keen of Australia. In it EJ discusses America's unique post credit bubble dual demand destruction spirals.

            Cash/Goods Price Inflation Spiral:
            Negative GDP growth
            Declining dollar
            Rising import prices
            Traded-goods cost-push inflation

            Credit/Assets Price Deflation Spiral:
            Asset price deflation
            Declining collateral values
            Credit Contraction
            Non-traded goods price deflation

            Both spirals feed into:
            Declining household and business cash flow
            Bankruptcy
            Unemployment
            Declining incomes


            If I am understanding the situation correctly, the above would appear to capture, in one illustration, the essence of the "Are we in Ka or are we in Poom?" question that has been asked and debated over recent months on various threads.

            Seems to me one of these dual spirals has the dis-inflationary characteristics of a Ka, and the other has the inflationary fingerprints of Poom all over it.

            As EJ pointed out a short while ago [ http://www.itulip.com/forums/showthr...28835#poststop ] the Ka and the Poom are happening at the same time, and this entirely unfamiliar circumstance is contributing to the confused inflation/deflation debate. Both sides can legitimately point to fresh evidence, almost daily, to support their position. None of us, including our politicians, have any experience dealing with this dual-spiral double-whammy.
            Last edited by GRG55; March 26, 2008, 05:00 AM. Reason: Insert link to referenced thread

            Comment


            • #7
              Re: Money-Market Rates Rise, Defy Central Bank Measures

              Originally posted by GRG55 View Post

              As EJ pointed out a short while ago, the Ka and the Poom are happening at the same time, and this entirely unfamiliar circumstance is contributing to the confused inflation/deflation debate. Both sides can legitimately point to almost daily fresh evidence to support their position. None of us, including our politicians, have any experience dealing with this dual-spiral double-whammy.
              I think I missed that part about ka and poom happening at the same time... but if that's true, then wouldn't we need a new model? Like, maybe an implosion/explosion theory? As in, while certain parts of the market are imploding, others are exploding outward as M3 and reflation efforts funnel into them?

              Comment


              • #8
                Re: Money-Market Rates Rise, Defy Central Bank Measures

                Originally posted by DemonD View Post
                I think I missed that part about ka and poom happening at the same time... but if that's true, then wouldn't we need a new model? Like, maybe an implosion/explosion theory? As in, while certain parts of the market are imploding, others are exploding outward as M3 and reflation efforts funnel into them?
                I tried the search to see if I could find the post where EJ made that comment, but no success. Perhaps the amazing FRED can identify it and post a link to it here.

                [EDIT: Found it: http://www.itulip.com/forums/showthr...ighlight=model ]

                Originally posted by FRED View Post
                The deflation case: caught, gutted, poached and eaten

                Oh, no! Not the Inflation vs Deflation debate again!

                by Eric Janszen

                The Fed’s greatest challenge is that the need to create an inflationary firebreak between crashing asset prices and the real economy has become so obvious that Wall Street money managers are starting to pile into the inflation bet en masse...

                ...This is the essence of the “Poom” argument, that all of the money needed to produce all-goods price inflation has already been printed and resides overseas in foreign government and private accounts. It’s the money we spent on the wars, entitlements, and everything else. A tidal wave of inflation is held back only by dollar demand created by co-dependent governments overseas. The surprise that I did not anticipate is that the “Ka” disinflation and “Poom” inflation are happening simultaneously...
                A couple of weeks ago I opined in a couple of different threads that perhaps Ka-Poom theory may need to be amended, to better model the current unusual circumstances. [ http://www.itulip.com/forums/showthr...odel#post29868 ]

                My question then: Can we take EJ's simultaneous Ka + Poom "Double-Death Spirals" (TM) above as an "official tweak" of Ka-Poom?
                Last edited by GRG55; March 26, 2008, 05:19 AM.

                Comment


                • #9
                  Re: Money-Market Rates Rise, Defy Central Bank Measures

                  Originally posted by GRG55 View Post
                  I tried the search to see if I could find the post where EJ made that comment, but no success. Perhaps the amazing FRED can identify it and post a link to it here.

                  [EDIT: Found it: http://www.itulip.com/forums/showthr...ighlight=model ]



                  A couple of weeks ago I opined in a couple of different threads that perhaps Ka-Poom theory may need to be amended, to better model the current unusual circumstances. [ http://www.itulip.com/forums/showthr...odel#post29868 ]

                  My question then: Can we take EJ's simultaneous Ka + Poom "Double-Death Spirals" (TM) above as an "official tweak" of Ka-Poom?
                  Well here's a partial confirmation from another thread, courtesy of our inimitable FRED:

                  Originally posted by FRED View Post
                  ...With respect to Keen, he appears to be persuaded that the US is experiencing a unique mixture of self-reinforcing processes that we call the Dual Cycles of Demand Destruction. In our terminology this means "Ka" disinflation and "Poom" inflation at the same time. This suggests that we may need to modify to our Ka-Poom thesis that presumes that the events of disinflation and reflation always occur in sequence...

                  Comment


                  • #10
                    Re: Money-Market Rates Rise, Defy Central Bank Measures

                    simultaneous inflation and deflation seems like a shock only because they are both occurring in ways that affect us negatively. previous we had inflation in domestic assets and deflation in import prices. everyone thought that was peachy.

                    Comment


                    • #11
                      Re: Money-Market Rates Rise, Defy Central Bank Measures

                      I suggest this name:
                      Nuclear Implosion Theory.

                      A nuclear bomb is set off by implosion (which would be the dropping asset prices and loss of value in all the radioactive MBS's and commercial paper). The implosion causes a huge explosion sending massive waves of destruction everywhere and the flames will follow paths of least resistance, overheating and potentially causing heat bubbles in other areas away from the epicenter of the blast.

                      In the aftermath of the implosion/explosion, there are massive shockwaves and radioactive waves which tend to inflict collateral damage on everyone, those closest to the event get incinerated but people far away still end up with significant problems.

                      This would be a logical step from ka-poom, since ka-poom is sort of an onomatopoeia for an explosion.

                      (Alt name, not as sexy: Nuclear Implosion/Explosion Theory).

                      You might draw some heat as the word "implosion" has been used on different websites, but to me this would just lend more credence to the theory name, and I'm sure mr. krowne would take it as a compliment or something in terms of intellectual property rights could be worked out if those things need to happen.

                      Just a suggestion.

                      Maybe a new contest, rename the theory? heh.

                      Comment


                      • #12
                        Re: Money-Market Rates Rise, Defy Central Bank Measures

                        Originally posted by DemonD View Post
                        I suggest this name:
                        Nuclear Implosion Theory.

                        A nuclear bomb is set off by implosion (which would be the dropping asset prices and loss of value in all the radioactive MBS's and commercial paper). The implosion causes a huge explosion sending massive waves of destruction everywhere and the flames will follow paths of least resistance, overheating and potentially causing heat bubbles in other areas away from the epicenter of the blast...

                        Maybe a new contest, rename the theory? heh.
                        Nuclear Implosion Theory?

                        Gets my vote. That way we can "NIT"-pick it to death. ;)
                        Last edited by GRG55; March 27, 2008, 05:39 AM.

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