MISH throws in the towel!!!!

[FRED]

Re: MISH throws in the towel!!!!

You know that the even the NAVY claims an intellectual superiority over the Marines. And they DRIVE BOATS for god's sake!

In the era of nuclear tipped tactical air to surface missiles I believe submariners call them "targets."

[Guest]

Re: MISH throws in the towel!!!!

Idianov -

I truly hate to be an advocate for Mish in any regard, as I think he's going to be the "pied piper" of some profoundly incorrect market calls going forwards. But there is a better than even chance that we have a blistering SPX rally straight through the remainder of 2008 and into the spring of '09, after which we have 'the big one' downwards. If that's the case, it will put us fundamental investors at iTulip to a tough test.

By any description, a steep 12 month long rally in the SPX is something more than a trading whimsy.

However I completely agree that Mish's entire 'method' is far too easily shaken from it's viewpoints, where his "fundamental stances" seem to mutate with alarming ease. That kind of investing sooner or later becomes too nimble for it's own good. But it's just conceivable that we have a powerful rally from here out to early 2009. Try SPX at 1440 in a matter of weeks, and at 1880 by early spring of '09. Not assured, but looking quite possible.

[Andreuccio]

Re: MISH throws in the towel!!!!

Now that's "news" to me!

iTulip: Come for the finance, stay for the toxicology reports.

[jtabeb]

Re: MISH throws in the towel!!!!

Idianov -
But there is a better than even chance that we have a blistering SPX rally straight through the remainder of 2008 and into the spring of '09, after which we have 'the big one' downwards.

By any description, a steep 12 month long rally in the SPX is something more than a trading whimsy.

But it's just conceivable that we have a powerful rally from here out to early 2009. Try SPX at 1440 in a matter of weeks, and at 1880 by early spring of '09. Not assured, but looking quite possible.

Could you elaborate more on your line of reasoning as to why you see this as possible or probable? Does the "it's time to short the market" call no longer stand?

[idianov]

Re: MISH throws in the towel!!!!

Idianov -

I truly hate to be an advocate for Mish in any regard, as I think he's going to be the "pied piper" of some profoundly incorrect market calls going forwards. But there is a better than even chance that we have a blistering SPX rally straight through the remainder of 2008 and into the spring of '09, after which we have 'the big one' downwards. If that's the case, it will put us fundamental investors at iTulip to a tough test.

By any description, a steep 12 month long rally in the SPX is something more than a trading whimsy.

However I completely agree that Mish's entire 'method' is far too easily shaken from it's viewpoints, where his "fundamental stances" seem to mutate with alarming ease. That kind of investing sooner or later becomes too nimble for it's own good. But it's just conceivable that we have a powerful rally from here out to early 2009. Try SPX at 1440 in a matter of weeks, and at 1880 by early spring of '09. Not assured, but looking quite possible.

Lukester, I do want to take any chances. There is a PE bubble waiting to be burst once US real economy squeezes the profit margins of highly leveraged companies, which will wipe out equity of investors and leave debts on the books of investment banks.

My chart reading skills and real time constraints are not good enough to time entry/exits on speculative bets to risk my capital. The high voilatility increases the chances of whipsaws.

However, my TA skills are good enough to recognize the market trends. I also heavily invest my time in reading iTulip to undestand and track the fundamentals with the help of iTulip investment framework. I will stay invested in PMs until fundamentals stop to be aligned with the trend.

The strong vs weak markets comment earlier with regards to Mish's timing call is based on a simple evolutionary concept that the the weak will lose its share to the strong. The fundamentals that set those trends are even stronger now than before, which should only accelerate the trends. In this environment, investing for the short term speculative gain while dumping winning positions is dumb.

I can relate to the current macro environment which reminds me of SU debt default and collapse in 1990s, when people's productive life savings where frozen in government savings bank and wiped out by hyper-inflation that followed the default. The American Bonds Crisis is the result of the US financial system over-leveraging and over-using foreigner's productive savings invested in the US, which are being wiped out by global inflation with the help of FED and other CBs.


Igor

[Guest]

Re: MISH throws in the towel!!!!

Jtabeb -

It's a very small circulation advisory I follow. They've made some extremely good (highly accurate) sector calls as far as I've tracked them, this past year, including calling the recent gold price top within 5 dollars, two to three months ahead of time. And I regret to say they do use Elliott Wave type fractal patterns as part of their process (regret because I personally feel a lot of antipathy to Elliott Wave).

I can't divulge the name of the advisory here. Sorry but we are not obliged to share everything on these pages. Not because I'm inclined to be cagey, but because this place gets a truly gargantuan number of page views. Lets wait and see. Personally I'm not chasing into it. I own zero stocks at this time, and am in no hurry to buy any. In fact I think I'll sit it out entirely with some substantial positions in bullion, ( )but for the more frequent traders here that SPX possibility may be of interest.

[Guest]

Re: MISH throws in the towel!!!!

Igor -

As per my reply above, I actually agree with you completely. I am following the exact same strategy as you.

[jtabeb]

Re: MISH throws in the towel!!!!

Jtabeb -

Sorry but we are not obliged to share everything on these pages.

What about in the select forums? Just trying to really understand what membership means. If I'm not getting the full scoop, that's fine, but I think that a disclosure should be provided. Just so everyone knows that this site is not a level "all for one-one for all" playing field.

Not Gripping, seriously. Just want everyone to understand what the social contract here is. That's all. (Because, I didn't)

Respectfully,


JT

[Guest]

Re: MISH throws in the towel!!!!

Jtabeb -

I'm just a plebe. Not a Select Premium member at this time, so you could say I'm "off the grid" in terms of any normative iTulip guidelines. BTW - I very much appreciate all your posts guy.

[FRED]

Re: MISH throws in the towel!!!!

What about in the select forums? Just trying to really understand what membership means. If I'm not getting the full scoop, that's fine, but I think that a disclosure should be provided. Just so everyone knows that this site is not a level "all for one-one for all" playing field.

Not Gripping, seriously. Just want everyone to understand what the social contract here is. That's all. (Because, I didn't)

Respectfully,


JT

We have done tons of original research and analysis on the financial system and economy for over 10 years and continue to build on it. The results in terms of "What it is" content is free. A large number of commentators and web sites that adopt these ideas over time, such as under various guises our Ka-Poom theory of disinflation and inflation, bubble cycles, and so on. That's fine with us as a public good.

The more expensively developed, unique, original and most valuable research, analysis, and conclusions from an actionability standpoint, the "What it means" and "Where it's going" content, is behind the paywall where we have an added level of legal protection. If you charge for content you can protect your copyright far better than if you do not as financial loss from theft can be easily demonstrated.

Make sense?

[Andreuccio]

Re: MISH throws in the towel!!!!

What about in the select forums? Just trying to really understand what membership means. If I'm not getting the full scoop, that's fine, but I think that a disclosure should be provided. Just so everyone knows that this site is not a level "all for one-one for all" playing field.

Not Gripping, seriously. Just want everyone to understand what the social contract here is. That's all. (Because, I didn't)

Respectfully,


JT

I can't speak for Lukester (ever ), but I think your best bet for him to tell you the name of the advisory newsletter he's referencing would be if you PM'd him. From what he wrote, it appears his hesitation is in having it out publicly, which is understandable, but that he wouldn't mind sharing it individually.

[jtabeb]

Re: MISH throws in the towel!!!!

It does.

Was just wondering if there was an understanding about reporting.

Let's say you guys had recieved good information that tomarrow the gold price is going to drop by $100. Is it explicit that you would report it? (behind the pay wall)

Again, just seeking clarity of understanding.

[Jim Nickerson]

Re: MISH throws in the towel!!!!

It does.

Was just wondering if there was an understanding about reporting.

Let's say you guys had recieved good information that tomarrow the gold price is going to drop by $100. Is it explicit that you would report it? (behind the pay wall)

Again, just seeking clarity of understanding.

Doesn't iTulip offer a month trial or a three month subscription. Do it and decide. I don't think, EJ or anyone else is gonna tell subscribers gold or anything is going to drop/rise/not change tomorrow, but he or Fred can clarify that for you.

[FRED]

Re: MISH throws in the towel!!!!

It does.

Was just wondering if there was an understanding about reporting.

Let's say you guys had recieved good information that tomarrow the gold price is going to drop by $100. Is it explicit that you would report it? (behind the pay wall)

Again, just seeking clarity of understanding.

iTulip never offers short term market opinions and does not believe anyone can accurately provide short term directional calls. What iTulip does do is make macro calls, such as calling a the start of a bear market in stocks in April 2000 and again in December 2007, the start of a bull market in gold in 2001, in Oct. 2006 the start of a US recession in Q4 2007, and so on, with all of the research and data provided that went into the decisions.

Using the example of the Keen interview above what occurs in the second part for subscribers is that we further investigate the progress of the process of recession and the influence of dollar depreciation and inflation, and asset price deflation. You will see a number of charts and diagrams we developed to help readers understand our unique take on the macro circumstances.

By continuously putting our theories to the test against other experts' we find areas of agreement and areas of disagreement. Then we evaluate whether the preponderance of the evidence is in favor of our view or our guest's. If the evidence argues for modifying our theory we do that or we take the new information as confirmation. In this way we constantly build on the past.

With respect to Keen, he appears to be persuaded that the US is experiencing a unique mixture of self-reinforcing processes that we call the Dual Cycles of Demand Destruction. In our terminology this means "Ka" disinflation and "Poom" inflation at the same time. This suggests that we may need to modify to our Ka-Poom thesis that presumes that the events of disinflation and reflation always occur in sequence.

Most times we come away with confirmation as in the case of our interview with Gave-Kal last year. Louis expected the credit crisis to abate and the stock market to continue up this year while our take was that Risk Pollution thesis informed us that the process was destined to go on until Treasury bonds are impacted and that the debt deflation was eventually going to hit the US stock market even in nominal terms.

Full description of iTulip Select here.

As an aside, the reason why EJ does follow his gold and bond macro opinions in his own account but not stock opinions: when he's on CNBC or FOX or some other station and his opposition asserts "You're here with a bearish call on housing stocks because you're short and trying to make money" EJ needs to be able to say, "No, I have no short positions in housing stocks at this time." With respect to gold and treasury bonds, however, no one is going to think it is remotely possible that EJ can influence prices with public comments so there is no perception of conflict.

It's costly to maintain this level of independence but we think it's worthwhile in the long term. Fortunately for readers, they can make their own decisions based in the information here provided by iTulip and its astute members and on other sites with no such constraints.

[dbarberic]

Re: MISH throws in the towel!!!!

Mish-Mash... what a goof ball.

All this has taught me is to formulate a thesis, prove out and test the thesis, and then have enough guts to put your own money on the line based on your thesis.

Mish-Mash is bunk.