MISH throws in the towel!!!!

[jtabeb]

You gotta love this guy, GOLD & Silver OUT, get long stocks!! This from a deflationist.

Staying Flexible

I have been anticipating a bounce in the US dollar index even while expecting the US dollar to trade lower vs. the Yen.

Many have asked why. The answer centers around a dislike of the Euro and British Pound. So before proceeding with thoughts about flexibility, let's stop for a moment and take a look at a few of my reasons to dislike the Euro and the Pound vs. the US dollar.

• German banks are arguably as bad off if not worse than US banks.
• Property bubbles in parts of the Eurozone are worse than in the US, Spain being the primary example.
• The property bubble in the UK is as bad if not worse than the US.
• Anti-dollar sentiment is extreme.
• The Euro has benefited from a huge diversification out of dollars especially from oil producing states. At some point diversification will end.
• There is still a prevailing attitude that the US will enter recession and somehow the Eurozone and UK will avoid that recession. I do not support that view.
• There is a prevailing attitude that Bernanke will keep slashing rates to zero while the ECB will hold the line. I suspect the ECB will start cutting rates and at some point the Fed will pause to consider.

However, opinions are opinions and facts are facts. The fact is the Euro rocketed higher, and the fact is I have been surprised by the resolve of Trichet in holding the line at the ECB. Indeed, the willingness of the ECB to hold the line may account for that last blast higher on the Euro. Can the ECB hold out forever? I do not think so, but that is an opinion not fact.

As for Bernanke, here is the key question: Will he pause for more data or will he continue nonstop on a path to ZIRP? Perhaps we have a clue in two dissenting votes at the last FOMC.

Viewpoints vs. Trading Positions

It's one thing to have a viewpoint and it's a second thing to actually trade that viewpoint. Can one have a viewpoint and not trade it? Of course.

I have had no personal stake in currencies for a long time. I seldom trade currencies even though I frequently have a viewpoint about them.

Sitka Pacific Capital Management, the firm I represent, does trade currencies (in a small portion of one particular strategy). Recently we were long the Yen vs. the US dollar and did very well with the trade. But that position was closed and as of March 19 we went long the US dollar index via UUP. Here is a chart of the US$ index to consider.

US Dollar Daily Chart



click on chart for sharper image

Inquiring minds may be asking "Was there any reason to buy that second circled area above vs. the first?" The answer is yes, there was a reason. The reason has to do with intermarket analysis of gold, the Euro, and the dollar. Let's start with a chart of the Euro.

$XEU Euro Daily



click on chart for sharper image

Given that the Euro is by far the largest component of the US$ index at 57.6% it does not make a lot of sense to go long the US$ index until it looks like the Euro is headed lower vs. the dollar.

I circled a trendline break above, but there were three prior trendline breaks in the channel drawn, so what makes this the correct one?

Gold Confirmation Context



click on chart for sharper image

Heading into the end of 2007, the triangle continuation pattern in the above chart suggested gold would break up, and if it did, the Euro channel would likely resolve to the upside.

In contrast, Sitka Pacific's long US$ trade was initiated on a break in the Euro confirmed by a break in gold.

However, we anticipated the break in gold first, and in fact exited gold (GLD) positions near $980 on the way up, not on the way down..

Why?

• Sentiment in gold seemed to be hitting extremes.
• Seasonality

The latter was a key factor. Gold tends to peak in a January-February timeframe. The seasonal peak season is usually August through January or February. In this case it ran through mid-March. However, with gold at or near $1000, and with favorable seasonality expected to end anytime, the risk-reward scenario simply did not look good to us, and the Euro looked extended.

If there was further upside in gold, we figured a retest would let us back in at this level. And on the break of the Euro, with gold confirming, we went long the US dollar thankful of not having to do two things at once.

Bear in mind that Sitka has four trading strategies we offer to clients and although none of our strategies holds a position in physical gold or silver (or gold or silver ETFs), one strategy still remains with a long position in mining stocks. The strategy with a position in miners is a commodities related strategy. Clients in that strategy are aware it is for long term positioning and/or part of an overall asset management strategy.

Within our commodities strategy, our physical gold and silver positions were eliminated and we may (or may not) lighten miner positions as well.

As far as energy goes, many of our strategies lightened up or eliminated energy plays in the same timeframe we went exited gold and went long the dollar. For now, it is important to note these plays are likely to be intermediate corrective positions as opposed to long term positions.

Reader Questions On Gold And Silver

On a daily basis I receive many emails on gold and silver. The influx of such emails inevitably increases after a big pullback like we have just seen. The typical email is something like this: "Should I exit now?"

I usually respond with my position that gold is likely to do well in extremes (deflation or hyperinflation), that gold is money, that gold may experience a significant correction, that perhaps we are in that correction now, and perhaps that correction will go on longer than most think.

To answer the question properly however, one needs to know and understand additional factors such as: A person's timeframe (short, intermediate, long), an individual's tolerance for risk, the person's rationale for the trade, when one got in the trade, how big one got in the trade, leverage if any, whether or not that investment in gold was part of an overall strategy, whether that overall strategy was carefully thought out, and whether or not one has the mental fortitude to stay with a long term thesis even if the individual's timeframe is long.

Seemingly simple questions can thus be complex and working with clients on those factors is part of our overall service at Sitka Pacific.

A Time To Go Long Equities?

To everything, turn turn turn, there is a season...

After being market neutral in our "Hedged Growth" strategy and extremely high in cash in our "Absolute Return Strategy" since last summer (click here for strategy details), we have now gone net long. This positioning may or may not last.

Did we dive off the deep end?

No, not really. We are not long mortgages, junk bonds, credit swaps, derivatives, or the typical momentum plays. Furthermore, should the S&P double bottom break, we will may change our tune quickly, without notice. In the meantime here is the type of value play we are increasing exposure on. Are you ready?

Wal-Mart (WMT) Weekly Chart



click on chart for sharper image

WMT’s 9-year technical consolidation may be ending. Sitka Pacific went long on the trendline break. Fundamentally, Wal-Mart is at 1999 prices even though earnings are substantially higher and international growth is picking up. A negative factor is Wal-Mart has plenty of debt, but that debt seems serviceable based on cash flow. We like Wal-Mart (for the time being anyway) as a value play.

What's In and What's Out?

• Gold and Silver are out.
• Energy is out.
• A bounce in equities with a concentration on value plays is in.
• A bounce in the US dollar is in.

That is how Sitka Pacific is playing the current setup as of mid to late last week.

We are willing to change our mind quickly if wrong, and without notice. Flexibility is now more crucial than ever.

[FRED]

Re: MISH throws in the towel!!!!

You gotta love this guy, GOLD & Silver OUT, get long stocks!! This from a deflationist.

Staying Flexible

I have been anticipating a bounce in the US dollar index even while expecting the US dollar to trade lower vs. the Yen.

Many have asked why. The answer centers around a dislike of the Euro and British Pound. So before proceeding with thoughts about flexibility, let's stop for a moment and take a look at a few of my reasons to dislike the Euro and the Pound vs. the US dollar.

• German banks are arguably as bad off if not worse than US banks.
• Property bubbles in parts of the Eurozone are worse than in the US, Spain being the primary example.
• The property bubble in the UK is as bad if not worse than the US.
• Anti-dollar sentiment is extreme.
• The Euro has benefited from a huge diversification out of dollars especially from oil producing states. At some point diversification will end.
• There is still a prevailing attitude that the US will enter recession and somehow the Eurozone and UK will avoid that recession. I do not support that view.
• There is a prevailing attitude that Bernanke will keep slashing rates to zero while the ECB will hold the line. I suspect the ECB will start cutting rates and at some point the Fed will pause to consider.

However, opinions are opinions and facts are facts. The fact is the Euro rocketed higher, and the fact is I have been surprised by the resolve of Trichet in holding the line at the ECB. Indeed, the willingness of the ECB to hold the line may account for that last blast higher on the Euro. Can the ECB hold out forever? I do not think so, but that is an opinion not fact.

As for Bernanke, here is the key question: Will he pause for more data or will he continue nonstop on a path to ZIRP? Perhaps we have a clue in two dissenting votes at the last FOMC.

Viewpoints vs. Trading Positions

It's one thing to have a viewpoint and it's a second thing to actually trade that viewpoint. Can one have a viewpoint and not trade it? Of course.

I have had no personal stake in currencies for a long time. I seldom trade currencies even though I frequently have a viewpoint about them.

Sitka Pacific Capital Management, the firm I represent, does trade currencies (in a small portion of one particular strategy). Recently we were long the Yen vs. the US dollar and did very well with the trade. But that position was closed and as of March 19 we went long the US dollar index via UUP. Here is a chart of the US$ index to consider.

US Dollar Daily Chart



click on chart for sharper image

Inquiring minds may be asking "Was there any reason to buy that second circled area above vs. the first?" The answer is yes, there was a reason. The reason has to do with intermarket analysis of gold, the Euro, and the dollar. Let's start with a chart of the Euro.

$XEU Euro Daily



click on chart for sharper image

Given that the Euro is by far the largest component of the US$ index at 57.6% it does not make a lot of sense to go long the US$ index until it looks like the Euro is headed lower vs. the dollar.

I circled a trendline break above, but there were three prior trendline breaks in the channel drawn, so what makes this the correct one?

Gold Confirmation Context



click on chart for sharper image

Heading into the end of 2007, the triangle continuation pattern in the above chart suggested gold would break up, and if it did, the Euro channel would likely resolve to the upside.

In contrast, Sitka Pacific's long US$ trade was initiated on a break in the Euro confirmed by a break in gold.

However, we anticipated the break in gold first, and in fact exited gold (GLD) positions near $980 on the way up, not on the way down..

Why?

• Sentiment in gold seemed to be hitting extremes.
• Seasonality

The latter was a key factor. Gold tends to peak in a January-February timeframe. The seasonal peak season is usually August through January or February. In this case it ran through mid-March. However, with gold at or near $1000, and with favorable seasonality expected to end anytime, the risk-reward scenario simply did not look good to us, and the Euro looked extended.

If there was further upside in gold, we figured a retest would let us back in at this level. And on the break of the Euro, with gold confirming, we went long the US dollar thankful of not having to do two things at once.

Bear in mind that Sitka has four trading strategies we offer to clients and although none of our strategies holds a position in physical gold or silver (or gold or silver ETFs), one strategy still remains with a long position in mining stocks. The strategy with a position in miners is a commodities related strategy. Clients in that strategy are aware it is for long term positioning and/or part of an overall asset management strategy.

Within our commodities strategy, our physical gold and silver positions were eliminated and we may (or may not) lighten miner positions as well.

As far as energy goes, many of our strategies lightened up or eliminated energy plays in the same timeframe we went exited gold and went long the dollar. For now, it is important to note these plays are likely to be intermediate corrective positions as opposed to long term positions.

Reader Questions On Gold And Silver

On a daily basis I receive many emails on gold and silver. The influx of such emails inevitably increases after a big pullback like we have just seen. The typical email is something like this: "Should I exit now?"

I usually respond with my position that gold is likely to do well in extremes (deflation or hyperinflation), that gold is money, that gold may experience a significant correction, that perhaps we are in that correction now, and perhaps that correction will go on longer than most think.

To answer the question properly however, one needs to know and understand additional factors such as: A person's timeframe (short, intermediate, long), an individual's tolerance for risk, the person's rationale for the trade, when one got in the trade, how big one got in the trade, leverage if any, whether or not that investment in gold was part of an overall strategy, whether that overall strategy was carefully thought out, and whether or not one has the mental fortitude to stay with a long term thesis even if the individual's timeframe is long.

Seemingly simple questions can thus be complex and working with clients on those factors is part of our overall service at Sitka Pacific.

A Time To Go Long Equities?

To everything, turn turn turn, there is a season...

After being market neutral in our "Hedged Growth" strategy and extremely high in cash in our "Absolute Return Strategy" since last summer (click here for strategy details), we have now gone net long. This positioning may or may not last.

Did we dive off the deep end?

No, not really. We are not long mortgages, junk bonds, credit swaps, derivatives, or the typical momentum plays. Furthermore, should the S&P double bottom break, we will may change our tune quickly, without notice. In the meantime here is the type of value play we are increasing exposure on. Are you ready?

Wal-Mart (WMT) Weekly Chart



click on chart for sharper image

WMT’s 9-year technical consolidation may be ending. Sitka Pacific went long on the trendline break. Fundamentally, Wal-Mart is at 1999 prices even though earnings are substantially higher and international growth is picking up. A negative factor is Wal-Mart has plenty of debt, but that debt seems serviceable based on cash flow. We like Wal-Mart (for the time being anyway) as a value play.

What's In and What's Out?

• Gold and Silver are out.
• Energy is out.
• A bounce in equities with a concentration on value plays is in.
• A bounce in the US dollar is in.

That is how Sitka Pacific is playing the current setup as of mid to late last week.

We are willing to change our mind quickly if wrong, and without notice. Flexibility is now more crucial than ever.

"It's one thing to have a viewpoint and it's a second thing to actually trade that viewpoint. Can one have a viewpoint and not trade it? Of course."

"We are willing to change our mind quickly if wrong, and without notice. Flexibility is now more crucial than ever."

Can you imagine anyone here saying that?

Our mantra:

1) Take years if necessary to develop an investment theses
2) Stick to it for years until it runs its course

This is the way of all successful investors.

You will die rich of old age making money our way, broke and of insanity trying to make money Mish's way.

"Within our commodities strategy, our physical gold and silver positions were eliminated and we may (or may not) lighten miner positions as well."

Dumped positions on a widely expected correction within a bull market?

Nuts.

"To answer the question properly however, one needs to know and understand additional factors such as: A person's timeframe (short, intermediate, long), an individual's tolerance for risk, the person's rationale for the trade, when one got in the trade, how big one got in the trade, leverage if any, whether or not that investment in gold was part of an overall strategy, whether that overall strategy was carefully thought out, and whether or not one has the mental fortitude to stay with a long term thesis even if the individual's timeframe is long."

That's actually a fair statement with respect to an individual client, but is a cop-out with respect to a long term investment thesis.

[Guest]

Re: MISH throws in the towel!!!!

Quoting Mike Shedlock: That is how Sitka Pacific is playing the current setup as of mid-to-late last week. ... We are willing to change our mind quickly ...

"We are willing to change our mind quickly" ... :rolleyes:

After getting whipsawed a half dozen times by slippery, ambiguous 'da-flation' market calls (which riding a treacherous stock market rebound won't help) may then wind up going to the ER complaining of chest pains, due to "forecasting anxiety syndrome".

[jtabeb]

Re: MISH throws in the towel!!!!

[broke and of insanity trying to make money Mish's way.

"Within our commodities strategy, our physical gold and silver positions were eliminated and we may (or may not) lighten miner positions as well."

Dumped positions on a widely expected correction within a bull market?

Nuts.]

I forgot to add that is there is only ONE better contrarian trend indicator than MISH, and that is the SUZIE ORMAN Put.

Has not failed on The QQQQs, HOUSING, you name it, if you have seen here hock it on one of the spots for her show, you'd better sell it RIGHT FREAKING NOW.

I used to use Dow/GLD as a target for the final gold top. Just you watch, when SUZIE O. says BUY BUY BUY, you'd better SELL SELL SELL.

(The Suzie Orman PUT is mine BTW, unless some one can claim it prior to the QQQQs, then have at it)

[GRG55]

Re: MISH throws in the towel!!!!

[broke and of insanity trying to make money Mish's way.

"Within our commodities strategy, our physical gold and silver positions were eliminated and we may (or may not) lighten miner positions as well."

Dumped positions on a widely expected correction within a bull market?

Nuts.]

I forgot to add that is there is only ONE better contrarian trend indicator than MISH, and that is the SUZIE ORMAN Put.

Has not failed on The QQQQs, HOUSING, you name it, if you have seen here hock it on one of the spots for her show, you'd better sell it RIGHT FREAKING NOW.

I used to use Dow/GLD as a target for the final gold top. Just you watch, when SUZIE O. says BUY BUY BUY, you'd better SELL SELL SELL.

(The Suzie Orman PUT is mine BTW, unless some one can claim it prior to the QQQQs, then have at it)

jtabeb: As a Defender Of The Realm it appalls me that you are spending so much time watching Suze O. :eek: This is very scary for us.

What happens if those pesky Russkies do a Bear raid over the Pole, while you're in the Squadron Ops Center bunker mesmerized by Suze's latest 401k advice? ;)

[jtabeb]

Re: MISH throws in the towel!!!!

jtabeb: As a Defender Of The Realm it appalls me that you are spending so much time watching Suze O. :eek: This is very scary for us.

What happens if those pesky Russkies do a Bear raid over the Pole, while you're in the Squadron Ops Center bunker mesmerized by Suze's latest 401k advice? ;)

Don't worry, I was much to busy instructing a young Marine Aviator in the PROPER way of operating high performance fixed-wing aircraft to listen to her. Haven't seen much of bubble vision lately (except to watch Cramer make an ass of himself on BS, but then, when doesn't he make an ass of himself).

Got to love Marines, they will kill ANYTHING, Damn good at it too. Not the brightest bunch though. (You know that the even the NAVY claims an intellectual superiority over the Marines. And they DRIVE BOATS for god's sake!)

You guys will let me know if Suzie'O makes a long GOLD call though, right?

[Jim Nickerson]

Re: MISH throws in the towel!!!!

Don't worry, I was much to busy instructing a young Marine Aviator in the PROPER way of operating high performance fixed-wing aircraft to listen to her. Haven't seen much of bubble vision lately (except to watch Cramer make an ass of himself on BS, but then, when doesn't he make an ass of himself).

Got to love Marines, they will kill ANYTHING, Damn good at it too. Not the brightest bunch though. (You know that the even the NAVY claims an intellectual superiority over the Marines. And they DRIVE BOATS for god's sake!)

You guys will let me know if Suzie'O makes a long GOLD call though, right?

I was a Naval Dentist 66-73, spent three of four years with Marines. My favorite joke: Marine grunt and Navy seaman both in men's room at airport peeing. When done, Marine zips up and begins walking out while Sailor is washing his hands, and Sailor turns and says to Marine, "In the Navy they teach us to wash our hands after we pee." Marine replies, "In the Corps, they teach us not to pee on our hands."

[Sapiens]

Re: MISH throws in the towel!!!!

Our mantra:

1) Take years if necessary to develop an investment theses
2) Stick to it for years until it runs its course

This is the way of all successful investors.

Not quite, you need to learn to read the political tea leaves before you start making serious money.

[EJ]

Re: MISH throws in the towel!!!!

Not quite, you need to learn to read the political tea leaves before you start making serious money.

That's a big part of Part 1, developing the thesis.

The political component of Ka-Poom Theory circa 2000 is that governments, given the choice, will inflate their way of out of a) foreign debts and, if pushed to the wall, will b) allow domestic debts to be inflated away as well. So far we've gotten part (a) depreciation of the dollar and inflating away of foreign obligations. We made that determination when the dollar was at a 20 year high, so it was highly contrarian.

Look for our interview with Steve Keen today as part of our ongoing confirmation or non-confirmation of part (b) of the thesis. Will the government ever support a deliberate policy of wage inflation to provide debt relief? You'll find the conversation interesting.

[dadelaw]

Re: MISH throws in the towel!!!!

Oh, for heaven's sake. Mish hasn't "thrown in" any towel. He's simply taking advantage of a short-term move. He still believes in deflation and he's still bearish overall.

Stop with this sour grapes catfight. It just diminishes you and your point-of-view.

[metalman]

Re: MISH throws in the towel!!!!

Oh, for heaven's sake. Mish hasn't "thrown in" any towel. He's simply taking advantage of a short-term move. He still believes in deflation and he's still bearish overall.

Stop with this sour grapes catfight. It just diminishes you and your point-of-view.

um, don't the sour grapes go to the guys who lost? that'd be mish. wrong on all counts for years. folks here like to make fun of him because he'll never admit failure.... instead he keeps spinning and spinning like a circus performer. think jim cramer but for bears.

[idianov]

Re: MISH throws in the towel!!!!

Selling strength in PM and Energy bull markets, buying $USD and weakness in stock bear market just to play the bounce is not a smart move. The market bounce is short covering/money rotation. The financials short covering is already done and they are not participating in the stock market bounce.

iTulip's philosophy and approach to investing (and sitting tight) is what keeps me coming back here everyday.

Igor

[Andreuccio]

Re: MISH throws in the towel!!!!

I was a Naval Dentist 66-73, spent three of four years with Marines. My favorite joke: Marine grunt and Navy seaman both in men's room at airport peeing. When done, Marine zips up and begins walking out while Sailor is washing his hands, and Sailor turns and says to Marine, "In the Navy they teach us to wash our hands after we pee." Marine replies, "In the Corps, they teach us not to pee on our hands."

I had heard the joke referring to Harvard and Yale men. According to Cecil Adams of "The Straight Dope", it turns out the Sailor and the Harvard man are correct: you do need to wash your hands, even if you don't pee on them:

Good (if elderly) joke. Common (but stupid) attitude. Rank (but important) topic. Some facts:

1. The purpose of washing is not to get pee off your hands.
2. No amount of washing will make you clean.
3. You have to do it anyway.

I've said this before: your boxer-shorts region--from belly button to mid-thigh--is crawling with germs known as coliform bacteria. These bacteria originated in your intestine, and some of them are deadly. Remember punji stakes? They were sharpened sticks that the Vietcong concealed point up along trails and daubed with excrement. If you stepped on one you had a good chance of contracting a fatal infection. Similarly, an otherwise not-so-serious gunshot or knife injury could kill you if it perforated the intestine and allowed coliform bacteria to spread around your abdomen.

But you know this (or at least you ought to). What you may not know is that washing will not make the coliform bacteria go away. They're holed up in the pores of your skin and nothing short of sandblasting--certainly not your morning shower--is going to get them out. Showering merely gets rid of the ones that have strayed onto the surface. The bacteria won't do much harm if they stay put, but when you urinate your fingers come in contact with Mister P. long enough for the coliform bacteria in your pores to hop aboard. Your fingers subsequently touch lots of other infectible items. If you don't wash your hands with soap and water (soap gets rid of the skin oil that the bacteria stick to) . . . hello, Typhoid Mary.

It now dawns on you: jeez, if merely touching my privates is enough to transmit bacteria, it doesn't matter if I pee or not! Just so. Urine itself is actually fairly sterile. Cecil has read reports of it being used during wartime in poor countries as--I'm not making this up--a sort of battlefield Bactine. (U.S. doctors generally blanch at this.) The lesson to draw from this, however, is not that you can go forth dripping (yuck), but rather that just because you didn't pee on your fingers doesn't mean you can skip washing up.

http://www.straightdope.com/classics/a4_220.html

[FRED]

Re: MISH throws in the towel!!!!

I had heard the joke referring to Harvard and Yale men. According to Cecil Adams of "The Straight Dope", it turns out the Sailor and the Harvard man are correct: you do need to wash your hands, even if you don't pee on them:



http://www.straightdope.com/classics/a4_220.html

Now that's "news" to me!

[FRED]

Re: MISH throws in the towel!!!!

[broke and of insanity trying to make money Mish's way.

"Within our commodities strategy, our physical gold and silver positions were eliminated and we may (or may not) lighten miner positions as well."

Dumped positions on a widely expected correction within a bull market?

Nuts.]

I forgot to add that is there is only ONE better contrarian trend indicator than MISH, and that is the SUZIE ORMAN Put.

Has not failed on The QQQQs, HOUSING, you name it, if you have seen here hock it on one of the spots for her show, you'd better sell it RIGHT FREAKING NOW.

I used to use Dow/GLD as a target for the final gold top. Just you watch, when SUZIE O. says BUY BUY BUY, you'd better SELL SELL SELL.

(The Suzie Orman PUT is mine BTW, unless some one can claim it prior to the QQQQs, then have at it)

Note to self: "Add Suzie Orman 'buy gold' call to list of sell indicators."