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First published rumors of Fed driven mortgage bailout?

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  • First published rumors of Fed driven mortgage bailout?

    From Marketwatch....


    NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- The U.S. Federal Reserve and some of its European counterparts are talking about the practicality of using public money to buy large quantities of mortgage-backed assets to clean up the credit mess jeopardizing global economic growth, the Financial Times reported Saturday.

    The discussions are preliminary, with the Bank of England seen as the most anxious to pursue the concept and with the European Central Bank far less eager, the report said without citing sources.
    However, the Bank of England was quoted in a later report by the Bloomberg news agency as denying it had plans to pick up mortgage-backed securities, although it is in talks with other central banks on how best to "ease the strains" in the markets.

    "We have been examining a number of other options, but it is too early to go into any detail," the Bank of England said in a statement quoted by Bloomberg. "The bank is not among those reported today to be proposing schemes that would require the taxpayer rather than banks to assume the credit risk."

    The Fed, which has taken a series of steps in recent weeks to offset the crisis, is reportedly open to the idea, but does not yet view the situation as dire enough to warrant such action, the Financial Times report said.
    It also said some analysts believe the Federal Reserve could take further steps to bolster liquidity to the market, while the U.K.'s ability is limited as the country lacks entities equivalent to the U.S. Federal Housing Administration, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.

    The U.K. government recently stepped into the troubled mortgage market in a big way by nationalizing mortgage-lender Northern Rock.

    http://www.marketwatch.com/news/stor...45238C529CC%7D

  • #2
    Re: First published rumors of Fed driven mortgage bailout?

    I think that doing this will have society changing consequences. A milestone in the slope toward the moral and financial bankruptcy of the western world.

    Comment


    • #3
      Re: First published rumors of Fed driven mortgage bailout?

      Can't vouch for this, but on the L.A. Times's real estate blog found an online petition against the coming real estate bailout:

      http://tinyurl.com/ywkfvj

      Comment


      • #4
        Re: First published rumors of Fed driven mortgage bailout?

        Some kind of grand bailout is probably inevitable.

        There are two bailout possibilities:

        1. Make it very easy for buyers to buy.

        2. Make it very enticing for homeowners to stay in their homes even though they owe more than the house is worth.

        So let's discuss.

        #1, making it easy to buy, is a no-brainer. Everyone loves this. Except for those who have an eye on trillion dollar balance sheet disasters such as Freddie and Fannie.

        But it is the easiest bailout option to take and they are taking it.

        It won't help though. Because as prices fall, who wants to be a buyer? Who wants to buy an asset that is losing $5000 or more per month?

        Eventually, with enough inflation kicking up wages, nominal house prices will start to increase and then people will buy. But that is years away.

        So, on to the second option.

        Get people to stay and make payments. The government can put a floor under each loan. So homeowners make partial payments and the government makes up the rest.

        A model for this would be the Section 8 program. Show your income tax returns and apply for "mortgage relief." The government kicks in a portion of your payment so that it doesn't exceed 40% of your monthly gross income.

        I can see this happening in a year or two.

        This is far more likely than a mass buyout of mortgage paper. I think a direct buyout of a trillion or more in mortgage paper would be too controversial, inflationary, and disasterous. But this "Section 8 style" bailout -- it would be billed as a temporary help to J6P and would be very popular.

        So some type of effort where the government makes up part of the mortgage payment -- that I see as a viable option for the US government and almost inevitable.

        The second option which they will pursue regardless of course is making sure the banks stay liquid regardless of how bad the crisis gets.

        The trouble with this option, and all of them really, is that they postpone any sort of adjustment and almost assure years of inflation and a banking system that is insolvent. Japan style but without the savings. A dropping standard of living, increasing costs of staples, stagnating stock market. Hmmmm...sounds familiar.

        Comment


        • #5
          Re: First published rumors of Fed driven mortgage bailout?

          So there is more today...

          http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?p...efer=worldwide

          My thoughts are that we are starting to see at PR campaign being built up to make this kind of action acceptable.

          1) Float bad idea

          2) Find sympathetic, high profile people and quote them repeatedly to generate consensus and place them in positions of thought leadership

          3) Supress/minimize critics

          4) edit message (but not idea) to give impression of debate and thoughtful consideration

          5) Repeat as necessary

          6) Act on original idea

          Any guess as to how long it will be before the Fed acts to directly hold mortgages? Sure seems the stage is being set.

          Hoo

          Comment


          • #6
            Re: First published rumors of Fed driven mortgage bailout?

            Originally posted by hoodoo View Post
            Any guess as to how long it will be before the Fed acts to directly hold mortgages? Sure seems the stage is being set.
            Never, the Fed is not going to hold anything, they are trying to have the government hold it.

            Remember the Federal Reserve is as federal as Federal Express.

            Comment


            • #7
              Re: First published rumors of Fed driven mortgage bailout?

              Originally posted by Tulpen View Post
              Never, the Fed is not going to hold anything, they are trying to have the government hold it. Remember the Federal Reserve is as federal as Federal Express.
              Continuing on that same note. Could you say that this is a sort of a relay race? Bear with me. This would be like a relay race, except the baton is a stick of dynamite with a lit fuse. The Fed knows that - in extremis - it could be abolished. The Treasury has it's bureaucratic "credibility" to uphold. Politicians are, at some minimum level, responsible to the public. They are all on the same team, but don't want to hold the baton when the stick of dynamite blows (they know it blows). So within the banking/finance establishment, there would be tug-of-wars / furious rushes to pass the dynamite baton. And banks are really up the creek with no paddle. And of course little thought is spared for the beast of burden - J6P.

              Which brings me to my next thought, about the Euro vs. US discrepancy. Obviously, Europe is lagging in the housing implosion. So could it be that ECB and BoE are holding out a little longer than we think, because they don't want to take too much crap from the US and want to see more real pain from banks and consumers before they act? This explanation makes sense to me. Though I'd have to say it is an act that requires quite exquisite timing. One Northern Rock in a few major European countries consumers may be able to bear, but if you get two or three, then risk aversion will kick in and mattress accounts will be in fashion.

              Good god - when you think of it this is just like Kremlinology of old. This isn't economics or finance. This is pure unadulterated communism. To keep your wealth safe you have to guess at what committees and power brokers are doing. "No, Comrade General Secretary, Steel Department #5 has done it's utmost to exceed the 5-year plan targets. You should talk to the Transportation Department. I hear they have a problem with foreign saboteurs"... I personally am not trading any of these things, but it it would be nice to know what the hell is going on. With the nationalization of mortages, we can have nice little collective farms.

              And note that the Guardian says (posted by Mega) the Fed is buying this toxic waste. "Threadneedle Street has refused to go further and follow the Federal Reserve, which has agreed to buy more than £100bn of the debt securities at the heart of the liquidity crisis." I thought it was all just "collateral". The Fed will end up holding the bag, but they want a little leverage over who bears the pain so they call it "collateral".

              Comment


              • #8
                Re: First published rumors of Fed driven mortgage bailout?

                Originally posted by krakknisse View Post
                Continuing on that same note. Could you say that this is a sort of a relay race? Bear with me. This would be like a relay race, except the baton is a stick of dynamite with a lit fuse...
                You mean like this...
                [January 14, 2006 cover; just as Greenspan retired from the Fed]

                Comment


                • #9
                  Re: First published rumors of Fed driven mortgage bailout?

                  Last night I was going to say, "yes, you're right"

                  But this morning I'm not so sure.

                  http://www.itulip.com/forums/showthread.php?t=3641

                  Hoo



                  Originally posted by Tulpen View Post
                  Never, the Fed is not going to hold anything, they are trying to have the government hold it.

                  Remember the Federal Reserve is as federal as Federal Express.

                  Comment

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