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Gold / Dow Ratio .. Approaching limits of 75% confidence band

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  • Gold / Dow Ratio .. Approaching limits of 75% confidence band

    The Gold Dow Ratio is now less than 12.

    http://www.sharelynx.com/chartstemp/DowGoldRatio.php

    The 75% confidence band has a lower barrier of about 11 or so.

    It's using a surrogate index before 1896.

    Something to consider when purchasing gold.

  • #2
    Re: Gold / Dow Ratio .. Approaching limits of 75% confidence band

    Originally posted by blazespinnaker View Post
    The Gold Dow Ratio is now less than 12.

    http://www.sharelynx.com/chartstemp/DowGoldRatio.php

    The 75% confidence band has a lower barrier of about 11 or so.

    It's using a surrogate index before 1896.

    Something to consider when purchasing gold.

    So you think the current situation is about one standard deviation from the norm then?

    I look at that chart and see that when these things unwind you end up with a Dow/Gold ratio well below five. And typically below two.
    Last edited by WDCRob; March 15, 2008, 05:08 PM. Reason: To make my stats teacher proud.

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    • #3
      Re: Gold / Dow Ratio .. Approaching limits of 75% confidence band

      Originally posted by WDCRob View Post
      So you think the current situation is less than one standard deviation from the norm then?

      I look at that chart and see that when these things unwind you end up with a Dow/Gold ratio well below five. And typically below two.
      WORD!

      (Can you say below 1/1 as in .1/1 or .00001/1 or .000000000000000001/1)!:eek:

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      • #4
        Re: Gold / Dow Ratio .. Approaching limits of 75% confidence band

        Eric pointed out a long time ago that the trick if one is holding gold at the end of this unwind will be find a way to convince yourself that selling during the mayhem around you is a good idea.

        For the record, seeing things like ".000001/1" does not help.

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        • #5
          Re: Gold / Dow Ratio .. Approaching limits of 75% confidence band

          Originally posted by WDCRob View Post
          Eric pointed out a long time ago that the trick if one is holding gold at the end of this unwind will be find a way to convince yourself that selling during the mayhem around you is a good idea.

          For the record, seeing things like ".000001/1" does not help.
          Not fearmongering, just my vote of "no-confidence" in the current economic system. I honestly hope it does not survive the present turmoil.

          The smiles represent my present state of mind. :mad::rolleyes::confused:

          Hopeful, that what replaces this BS is better, more honest and just.

          Angry at the continued private crime/public expense of our financial system.

          Smugness, yes I feel smug that so many "experts" got so much so completely wrong, it's poetry really, living poetry.

          Uncertain, I'm fairly certain that this is a lost battle, that is not the question ( the prop job will fail ). Rather, what, how will the world choose to organize itself in the aftermath of this 10 Sigma event. I hope the debate we have today can set the course to a better future when this is all said and done.

          See my rant to be posted later tonight. "The rant heard 'round the world"

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          • #6
            Re: Gold / Dow Ratio .. Approaching limits of 75% confidence band

            Originally posted by jtabeb View Post
            Not fearmongering, just my vote of "no-confidence" in the current economic system. I honestly hope it does not survive the present turmoil.

            The smiles represent my present state of mind. :mad::rolleyes::confused:

            Hopeful, that what replaces this BS is better, more honest and just.

            Angry at the continued private crime/public expense of our financial system.

            Smugness, yes I feel smug that so many "experts" got so much so completely wrong, it's poetry really, living poetry.

            Uncertain, I'm fairly certain that this is a lost battle, that is not the question ( the prop job will fail ). Rather, what, how will the world choose to organize itself in the aftermath of this 10 Sigma event. I hope the debate we have today can set the course to a better future when this is all said and done.

            See my rant to be posted later tonight. "The rant heard 'round the world"
            ej's interviewed rogers a few times. he said "cash" on cnbc but he didn't say "abolish the fed" did he. go rogers!

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            • #7
              Re: Gold / Dow Ratio .. Approaching limits of 75% confidence band

              "Socialism for the rich..."

              Testify brother Jim.

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              • #8
                Re: Gold / Dow Ratio .. Approaching limits of 75% confidence band

                "What's wrong with investment banks failing?"

                Ok, I'm going to go right now and light a candle for Rogers.

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                • #9
                  Re: Gold / Dow Ratio .. Approaching limits of 75% confidence band

                  Originally posted by metalman View Post
                  ej's interviewed rogers a few times. he said "cash" on cnbc but he didn't say "abolish the fed" did he. go rogers!
                  Here's is EJ's answer to the exact same question that was asked of Jim Rogers (and the reason why EJ, who is actually trying to help people understand what to do about this mess, wouldn't waste his time advocating "abolish the Fed" on Bubblevision)...
                  Q: “What would EJ do it he were Ben Bernanke?”
                  A: The easy answer is: I wouldn’t be Ben Bernanke. I said when he started: “With a storm of credit collapse hitting US shores, Ben Bernanke has stepped into the biggest goat job in central banking history.” (see Ka-Poom is a Rhyme not a Repeat of History). But that’s too easy. Or right after I got the job I could go to Congress and say, “This central banking institution is so broken we’re better off getting rid of it and coming up with something else.” While that approach certainly lets me off the hook, it's not realistic...



                  If EJ wanted the attention that Brother Jimmy Rogers craves, he would have got himself measured up for a polka dot bow tie...

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