Gold bubble goes pop!

[Thailandnotes]

Re: Gold bubble goes pop!

Is there a companion to the graph....Countries That Import Capital?

is there a "Countries That Export Capital?"

[GRG55]

Re: Gold bubble goes pop!

Is there a companion to the graph....Countries That Import Capital?

is there a "Countries That Export Capital?"

You could start here:
https://www.cia.gov/library/publicat.../2187rank.html

[raja]

Re: Gold bubble goes pop!

Raja: First do not fall into the trap of believing that money gets "pulled out of the market" or conversely "money gets put to work", a favourite phrase of the Bubblevision crowd.

Money flows through markets, not in or out. You cannot buy anything in the market unless there is someone willing to sell. That means that just as fast as you are "putting money to work" someone else is receiving your Dollars and removing them - those $'s flow through the market.

Second do not confuse the number of shares/units being traded with the price of a commodity, ETF or common share. The former is reflected in the volume of transactions, and this volume can go up or down on any given day, without any change in price. As long as the number of willing buyers is matched by the number of willing sellers, price will be generally stable. It's when there is an imbalance one way or the other that price generally moves to try to correct that imbalance.

(Relatively) Transparent markets that are (relatively) freely traded, like the NYSE or the CBOT, are the forum for price discovery between willing sellers and buyers. It only takes one transaction to reprice all the outstanding shares/units/bushels/ounces/tonnes of common stock/ETF/commodities. You can change the apparent value of all the outstanding shares of General Electric (at least temporarily) by purchasing a single share at a price above or below the last traded price (but of course to do that you have to find a willing seller at that price).

This continuous, "real-time" mark-to-market is one of the reasons these investments have been attracting attention recently, IMO.

GRG,

Thanks for the explanation . . . I was thinking about the situation incorrectly.

Would it then be correct to say that, unlike a commodity-related stock, a commodity ETF will mirror the value of the commodity . . . so that even if the market "crashed", commodity ETFs would not fall in price unless the underlying commodity also fell in price?

[Jim Nickerson]

Re: Gold bubble goes pop!

GRG,

Thanks for the explanation . . . I was thinking about the situation incorrectly.

Would it then be correct to say that, unlike a commodity-related stock, a commodity ETF will mirror the value of the commodity . . . so that even if the market "crashed", commodity ETFs would not fall in price unless the underlying commodity also fell in price?

I may continue to show my ignorance here, but what the heck. I think you are correct. But it would seem to me if the equity markets "crashed" that whatever caused that economically might also have the effect of decreasing the demand for certain commodities, and if that were to happen it seems to me that the prices of the commodities and thus the prices of the ETF's or futures or however the investments are made would also drop. GRG can elaborate when he reaches wakefulness.

[GRG55]

Re: Gold bubble goes pop!

I may continue to show my ignorance here, but what the heck. I think you are correct. But it would seem to me if the equity markets "crashed" that whatever caused that economically might also have the effect of decreasing the demand for certain commodities, and if that were to happen it seems to me that the prices of the commodities and thus the prices of the ETF's or futures or however the investments are made would also drop. GRG can elaborate when he reaches wakefulness.

Raja: Jim's answered your question completely.

Nice to see ya'll are finally on Daylight Savings Time. We don't change over here in this little Kingdom, so it means the markets in the US close an hour earlier for us, and I can get more sleep. :-)

GR

[Jim Nickerson]

Re: Gold bubble goes pop!

Raja: Jim's answered your question completely.

Nice to see ya'll are finally on Daylight Savings Time. We don't change over here in this little Kingdom, so it means the markets in the US close an hour earlier for us, and I can get more sleep. :-)

GR

Thanks, GRG, I'm so happy I was not way off base. Just out of idle curiosity, what is the time difference between where you are and say NY.
It seems to me you never sleep. Oh, I guess it's 7 hours now, 8 hours last week.

[GRG55]

Re: Gold bubble goes pop!

Thanks, GRG, I'm so happy I was not way off base. Just out of idle curiosity, what is the time difference between where you are and say NY.
It seems to me you never sleep. Oh, I guess it's 7 hours now, 8 hours last week.

7 hours ahead of New York now, that's correct.

As Finster (and others) have previously pointed out, you underestimate (at least in public here) your knowledge and understanding of what is going on in the wild and crazy FIRE economy world Jim. We are all just trying to piece this jigsaw puzzle together, and you find and match more pieces than many of the rest of us!

[c1ue]

Re: Gold bubble goes pop!

Just keep in mind Enron - besides the outright corporate fraud, it seems most people have forgotten that Enron had used leverage and market savvy to effectively drive up the price for natural gas.

And now, years later, the price of natural gas is still flat to lower despite the well documented dollar difficulties...

The point being - with a reasonable pile of money, an above average intelligence/drive, and an unreasonable amount of greed, lots of things can happen in a commodity market.

http://tonto.eia.doe.gov/dnav/ng/hist/n9190us3m.htm

 1995
1.62
1.48
1.47
1.52
1.55
1.58
1.43
1.43
1.52
1.54
1.61
1.84
  1996
2.05
1.89
1.95
2.08
2.01
2.08
2.25
2.10
1.85
1.94
2.50
3.26
  1997
3.40
2.49
1.79
1.81
2.00
2.08
2.00
2.08
2.33
2.68
2.92
2.28
  1998
1.96
1.96
2.06
2.16
2.04
1.91
2.09
1.82
1.70
1.86
1.94
1.95
  1999
1.85
1.77
1.70
1.90
2.17
2.14
2.20
2.51
2.62
2.52
2.68
2.24
  2000
2.60
2.73
2.66
2.86
3.04
3.77
3.84
3.73
4.26
4.58
4.40
5.77
  2001
6.82
5.08
4.37
4.52
4.36
3.79
3.35
3.33
2.93
2.78
3.41
3.42
  2002
2.50
2.19
2.40
2.94
2.94
2.96
2.92
2.76
2.97
3.24
3.59
3.96
  2003
4.43
5.05
6.96
4.47
4.77
5.41
5.08
4.46
4.59
4.32
4.26
4.76
  2004
5.21
5.02
5.12
5.03
5.40
5.82
5.62
5.52
5.06
5.43
6.21
6.01
  2005
5.80
5.73
5.95
6.57
6.25
6.09
6.71
6.48
8.95
10.33
9.89
9.08
  2006
8.02
6.86
6.44
6.38
6.24
5.78
5.92
6.56
6.06
5.09
6.72
6.76
  2007
5.92
6.66
6.56
6.84
6.98
6.86
6.19
5.90
5.61
6.25
6.37
6.53