Announcement

Collapse
No announcement yet.

The Federal Reserve's rescue has failed

Collapse
X
 
  • Filter
  • Time
  • Show
Clear All
new posts

  • The Federal Reserve's rescue has failed

    Article in the UK's Telegraph newspaper by Ambrose Evans-Pritchard:
    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/mai.../ccview103.xml

    The Fed is now singing from a different hymn book, warning of the "possibility of some very unfavourable outcomes". Inflation is not one of them.

    "There probably will be some bank failures," said Ben Bernanke. He knows perfectly well that the US price spike is a bogus scare, the tail-end of a food and fuel shock.

    "I expect inflation to come down. I don't think we're anywhere near the situation in the 1970s," he told Congress.

    Indeed not. Real wages are being squeezed. Oil and "Ags" are acting as a tax. December unemployment jumped at the fastest rate in a quarter century.

    The greater risk is slump, says MIT Professor Paul Krugman. "The Fed is studying the Japanese experience with zero rates very closely. The problem is that if they want to cut rates as aggressively as they did in the early 1990s and 2001, they have to go below zero."

    This means "quantitative easing" as it was called in Japan. As Ben Bernanke spelled out in November 2002, the Fed can inject money by purchasing great chunks of the bond market.

    Section 13 of the Federal Reserve Act allows the bank - in "exigent circumstances" - to lend money to anybody, and take upon itself the credit risk. It has not done so since the 1930s.


    Ultimately the big guns have the means to stop descent into an economic Ice Age. But will they act in time?

    "We are becoming increasingly concerned that the authorities in the world do not get it," said Bernard Connolly, global strategist at Banque AIG.

    "The extent of de-leveraging involves a wholesale destruction of credit. The risk is that the 'shadow banking system' completely collapses," he said.

    For the first time since this Greek tragedy began, I am now really frightened.
    Is this how 'poom' happens? The Fed buying massive amounts of bonds, then foreign holders selling them as they realize what the Fed is doing, causing the repatriation of loads of dollars?

  • #2
    Re: The Federal Reserve's rescue has failed

    Originally posted by renewable View Post
    Article in the UK's Telegraph newspaper by Ambrose Evans-Pritchard:
    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/mai.../ccview103.xml



    Is this how 'poom' happens? The Fed buying massive amounts of bonds, then foreign holders selling them as they realize what the Fed is doing, causing the repatriation of loads of dollars?

    I think the gold and silver price moves in the last 72 hours seem to indicate that your observation is correct and in-play as we speak.

    Comment


    • #3
      Re: The Federal Reserve's rescue has failed

      Originally posted by renewable View Post
      Article in the UK's Telegraph newspaper by Ambrose Evans-Pritchard:
      http://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/mai.../ccview103.xml



      Is this how 'poom' happens? The Fed buying massive amounts of bonds, then foreign holders selling them as they realize what the Fed is doing, causing the repatriation of loads of dollars?
      started in mid 2006. shit. wish i'd listened and doubled down. shit.

      Comment


      • #4
        Re: The Federal Reserve's rescue has failed

        Check out Clive Maund's analysis of where silver's going in the next year (after it takes a "little bath" first).

        http://www.safehaven.com/article-9605.htm

        Are we dreaming this or what?

        Comment


        • #5
          Re: The Federal Reserve's rescue has failed

          Is there a Bullion Vault style option for silver?

          Comment


          • #6
            Re: The Federal Reserve's rescue has failed

            WDCRob -

            It is not as safe buying silver now as it was in August at $13.00. If you load up now you are maybe buying in at approx. 3/4 (or worse!) through the current upmove. Sorry to sound like a wet blanket, but anyone looking to build positions now would be a good deal more conservative and disciplined to wait through this and buy prior to the next parabolic spike, two years further down the road.

            Both Goldmoney and Bullionvault have now added silver storage in Swizerland. I use Goldmoney but Bullionvault seems fine. However all pooled silver is an imperfect alternative IMHO to holding it in ones personal possession, or second best would be in a personal acct. unrelated to any depository you share with other holders.

            Comment


            • #7
              Re: The Federal Reserve's rescue has failed

              Originally posted by Lukester View Post
              WDCRob -

              It is not as safe buying silver now as it was in August at $13.00. If you load up now you are maybe buying in at approx. 3/4 (or worse!) through the current upmove. Sorry to sound like a wet blanket, but anyone looking to build positions now would be a good deal more conservative and disciplined to wait through this and buy prior to the next parabolic spike, two years further down the road.

              Both Goldmoney and Bullionvault have now added silver storage in Swizerland. I use Goldmoney but Bullionvault seems fine. However all pooled silver is an imperfect alternative IMHO to holding it in ones personal possession, or second best would be in a personal acct. unrelated to any depository you share with other holders.
              how far are "they" going to let this go?

              Comment


              • #8
                Re: The Federal Reserve's rescue has failed

                Aaron Krowne reiterated the notion of a potential short squeeze in the "cheap white metal". Could be. Lot's of smart people have talked about it. Maybe one day it just sort of "happens" the way all stuff that has a good chance of happening eventually "happens".

                I just got an email this evening from that "nutty" guy Jason Hommel swearing we are gearing up for a short squeeze in silver right now.

                I'd like to see a concerted government capping effort when those who are short two thirds of global annual silver production decide to all head for the door about the same time. It's not the capping exercise that's the possibility (I don't think any capping of silver by CB's is plausible) - what's interesting is to see any hint of a tipping point, where the tiny number of shorts singlehandedly messing with the silver price get "cabin fever" and one after another start to go all squirrely.

                Besides, governments and CB's really aren't too interested in the silver market. And none of them have silver reserves sufficient to cap that market like they have reserves of gold. That's one of the biggest difference between silver and gold, no? Few if any parties have the reserves of silver to mess with the price other than in the futures contracts paper?

                Comment


                • #9
                  Re: The Federal Reserve's rescue has failed

                  Originally posted by Lukester View Post
                  Aaron Krowne reiterated the notion of a potential short squeeze in the "cheap white metal". Could be. Lot's of smart people have talked about it. Maybe one day it just sort of "happens" the way all stuff that has a good chance of happening eventually "happens".

                  I just got an email this evening from that "nutty" guy Jason Hommel swearing we are gearing up for a short squeeze in silver right now.

                  I'd like to see a concerted government capping effort when those who are short two thirds of global annual silver production decide to all head for the door about the same time. It's not the capping exercise that's the possibility (I don't think any capping of silver by CB's is plausible) - what's interesting is to see any hint of a tipping point, where the tiny number of shorts singlehandedly messing with the silver price get "cabin fever" and one after another start to go all squirrely.

                  Besides, governments and CB's really aren't too interested in the silver market. And none of them have silver reserves sufficient to cap that market like they have reserves of gold. That's one of the biggest difference between silver and gold, no? Few if any parties have the reserves of silver to mess with the price other than in the futures contracts paper?
                  Wasn't it a margin requirement change at the Comex that wiped out Nelson Bunker Hunt?

                  Comment


                  • #10
                    Re: The Federal Reserve's rescue has failed

                    It is interesting that the PM bull has accelerated in the past few weeks.

                    I am wondering if there is some type of 'kitchen sink' action going on - tossing out the first wave bad news to clear the decks before the Dem/Rep action starts.

                    While debt is absolutely getting worse, it is also more than a bit early to understand just how ugly it is going to get.

                    Comment


                    • #11
                      Re: The Federal Reserve's rescue has failed

                      GRG55 -

                      Regarding the gross mis-match between today's silver price and the gold price, I refer readers to a long, dull, but very painstaking review of existing global stocks of silver vs. existing stocks of gold - Even after factoring that such estimations must be grossly inaccurate as they span two thousand years, the conclusion is highly provocative of careful reflection.

                      Existing stores of silver globally have not only been in sharp decline since the 1940's, but this metal is only five and a half, to six and a half times more abundant than gold. Yet it remains priced as 50-60 times more common than gold.

                      Valuation of silver therefore represents what might be called a "massive market inefficiency in pricing". This ratio suggests a forward price for silver determined solely by it's abundance relative to gold, of $180, based merely on $1000 gold. Sounds outlandish? Ask our sober minded and prudent chartist Bart where he sees silver priced, with gold at $2500.

                      Silver at $20 today is less than 1/8 of the above stockpile availability adjusted price, coming out of what we percieve to be an "excessive run-up".

                      Full (long and exceedingly dry summary and bibliography) here:

                      http://www.financialsense.com/fsu/ed...2006/0526.html

                      ___________________

                      CONCLUSIONS - QUOTE:

                      ... By taking the average of all three, we arrive at 20.99B ounces of silver remaining in the world in all forms (mostly jewelry and silverware).

                      But in order to temper our enthusiasm in discovering what would actually be a relative rarity ratio between gold and silver of less than 1 to 5 based upon the above numbers, let us further assume that a maximum of 4 billion ounces of silver could be recycled from existing industrial (not including jewelry or sterlingware) materials if the price were right (say $50-$100/ounce). Including this additional potential supply, 24.99B ounces of silver would remain in all forms.

                      Here then is our new gold to silver ratio based solely upon relative rarity, buffered for the sake of being conservative with that extra 4 billion ounces. Again, I hope the inclusion of this additional 4 billion ounces will be a more than sufficient compromise to account for my inevitable bias towards silver.

                      The new gold to silver ratio is 24.99 billion ounces Ag/ 4.25 billion ounces Au

                      (see Part 1)/ = 1 to 5.88 (Gold vs. Silver)

                      This means that based solely upon relative abundance, silver should be trading at about $110.50/ounce (using a gold price of $650.0).

                      Patience, it seems, is destined to pay some incredible dividends.

                      Conclusion

                      Clearly, silver is not more rare than gold, but a 1 to 5.78 rarity ratio is indicative of the incredible leverage to be found in all silver related investments since the current ratio stands at roughly 1 to 54. Will it ever reach the ‘magical’ 1 to 5 ratio insisted upon by Bunker Hunt over 30 years ago? That remains to be seen. But at least now we know for certain that such an idea isn’t nearly as far-fetched as it might have otherwise seemed.



                      Period
                      Or
                      Year

                      Annual Silver
                      Production
                      (millions of oz)

                      Period
                      Or
                      Year

                      Annual Gold
                      Production
                      (millions of oz)

                      Silver Production
                      Divided by
                      Gold Production

                      600-300BC


                      1.5


                      600-300BC


                      unknown


                      unknown


                      Roman times


                      Est. 1.6


                      Roman times


                      Est. 0.16–0.32


                      Est. 5 to 10







                      1800


                      0.80





                      1850


                      40.0


                      1847


                      2.41


                      16.60


                      1870s


                      80.0


                      1851-1875


                      Ave. 6.16


                      12.99








                      1876-1900


                      Ave. 7.29





                      1920


                      120.0


                      1900-1925


                      Ave. 19.10


                      6.28


                      1950





                      1950


                      32.10





                      1960





                      1960


                      36.30





                      1970


                      301.6


                      1970


                      47.36


                      6.37


                      1980


                      339.4


                      1980


                      39.20


                      8.66


                      1990


                      518.2


                      1990


                      49.28


                      10.52


                      1995


                      478.8


                      1995


                      71.40


                      6.71


                      1996


                      485.9


                      1996


                      72.30


                      6.72


                      1997


                      519.3


                      1997


                      79.70


                      6.52


                      1998


                      545.5


                      1998


                      82.10


                      6.64


                      Comment


                      • #12
                        Re: The Federal Reserve's rescue has failed

                        Originally posted by Lukester View Post
                        GRG55 -

                        Regarding the gross mis-match between today's silver price and the gold price, I refer readers to a long, dull, but very painstaking review of existing global stocks of silver vs. existing stocks of gold - Even after factoring that such estimations must be grossly inaccurate as they span two thousand years, the conclusion is highly provocative of careful reflection.

                        Existing stores of silver globally have not only been in sharp decline since the 1940's, but this metal is only five and a half, to six and a half times more abundant than gold. Yet it remains priced as 50-60 times more common than gold.

                        Valuation of silver therefore represents what might be called a "massive market inefficiency in pricing". This ratio suggests a forward price for silver determined solely by it's abundance relative to gold, of $180, based merely on $1000 gold. Sounds outlandish? Ask our sober minded and prudent chartist Bart where he sees silver priced, with gold at $2500.

                        Silver at $20 today is less than 1/8 of the above stockpile availability adjusted price, coming out of what we percieve to be an "excessive run-up".

                        Full (long and exceedingly dry summary and bibliography) here:

                        http://www.financialsense.com/fsu/ed...2006/0526.html

                        ___________________

                        CONCLUSIONS - QUOTE:

                        ... By taking the average of all three, we arrive at 20.99B ounces of silver remaining in the world in all forms (mostly jewelry and silverware).

                        But in order to temper our enthusiasm in discovering what would actually be a relative rarity ratio between gold and silver of less than 1 to 5 based upon the above numbers, let us further assume that a maximum of 4 billion ounces of silver could be recycled from existing industrial (not including jewelry or sterlingware) materials if the price were right (say $50-$100/ounce). Including this additional potential supply, 24.99B ounces of silver would remain in all forms.

                        Here then is our new gold to silver ratio based solely upon relative rarity, buffered for the sake of being conservative with that extra 4 billion ounces. Again, I hope the inclusion of this additional 4 billion ounces will be a more than sufficient compromise to account for my inevitable bias towards silver.

                        The new gold to silver ratio is 24.99 billion ounces Ag/ 4.25 billion ounces Au

                        (see Part 1)/ = 1 to 5.88 (Gold vs. Silver)

                        This means that based solely upon relative abundance, silver should be trading at about $110.50/ounce (using a gold price of $650.0).

                        Patience, it seems, is destined to pay some incredible dividends.

                        Conclusion

                        Clearly, silver is not more rare than gold, but a 1 to 5.78 rarity ratio is indicative of the incredible leverage to be found in all silver related investments since the current ratio stands at roughly 1 to 54. Will it ever reach the ‘magical’ 1 to 5 ratio insisted upon by Bunker Hunt over 30 years ago? That remains to be seen. But at least now we know for certain that such an idea isn’t nearly as far-fetched as it might have otherwise seemed.





                        Period
                        Or
                        Year



                        Annual Silver
                        Production
                        (millions of oz)



                        Period
                        Or
                        Year



                        Annual Gold
                        Production
                        (millions of oz)



                        Silver Production
                        Divided by
                        Gold Production



                        600-300BC




                        1.5




                        600-300BC




                        unknown




                        unknown




                        Roman times




                        Est. 1.6




                        Roman times




                        Est. 0.16–0.32




                        Est. 5 to 10













                        1800




                        0.80









                        1850




                        40.0




                        1847




                        2.41




                        16.60




                        1870s




                        80.0




                        1851-1875




                        Ave. 6.16




                        12.99














                        1876-1900




                        Ave. 7.29









                        1920




                        120.0




                        1900-1925




                        Ave. 19.10




                        6.28




                        1950









                        1950




                        32.10









                        1960









                        1960




                        36.30









                        1970




                        301.6




                        1970




                        47.36




                        6.37




                        1980




                        339.4




                        1980




                        39.20




                        8.66




                        1990




                        518.2




                        1990




                        49.28




                        10.52




                        1995




                        478.8




                        1995




                        71.40




                        6.71




                        1996




                        485.9




                        1996




                        72.30




                        6.72




                        1997




                        519.3




                        1997




                        79.70




                        6.52




                        1998




                        545.5




                        1998




                        82.10




                        6.64




                        I am well aware of the long standing inventory, short position, lack of Central Bank ownership, etc. arguments in favour of silver. And I certainly hold some myself (and have for some years).

                        However, silver is also an industrial metal. And, as such, is subject to the vagaries of the economy. Whether the attraction of silver as a monetary metal, in greater abundance than gold, can overcome negative influences from a global economic slow-down remains to be seen.

                        My own expectation, as the economy slows, is the gold/silver ratio is more likely to increase than continue to decrease as it has recently, thus favouring gold over silver.

                        Comment


                        • #13
                          Re: The Federal Reserve's rescue has failed

                          Poor unloved Silver! Like an orphan really ...

                          Comment


                          • #14
                            Re: The Federal Reserve's rescue has failed

                            Originally posted by Lukester View Post
                            Poor unloved Silver! Like an orphan really ...
                            Well it had a rather good day today, so one ignores it at one's own detriment... ;)

                            Comment


                            • #15
                              Re: The Federal Reserve's rescue has failed

                              Lukester,

                              I understand that the abundance ratio is 5/1, but why does the price necessarily need to be so? By that logic, wouldn't total world gold valuation need to equal that of copper, nickel, palladium, etc.? Shouldn't then the total value of all '58 Edsels equal that of all '65 Mustangs?

                              Jimmy

                              Comment

                              Working...
                              X