Your biggest trading regret the last few years?

[World Traveler]

Not Buying More Exxon Stock

Over the years, in the 80's, it would have been so easy to accumulate more at what is today a ridiculously low price (I live in Houston and worked in oil industry). In 1982-83, when I was young and financially naive, I had a spare $3000, I didn't know what to do with it so I bought some Exxon stock and never sold that batch, primarily due to inertia. It has turned out to be best investment I ever made, due to the splits and dividends.

I continued to accumulate some more Exxon stock over the 1980's. Worst decision I ever made was to sell maybe 20% of it in 2000 because Enron was making me nervous.

[c1ue]

Re: Your biggest trading regret the last few years?

no putting all my money into gold/silver/platinum in 2001.

but that's why we diversify... not every bet can win.

Well, if you are really so into buy and forget - $5000 in BKH in 1964 would put you over $180M by now.

Difference between structural monopoly and inflation hedge...

[Jim Nickerson]

Re: Your biggest trading regret the last few years?

Well, if you are really so into buy and forget - $5000 in BKH in 1964 would put you over $180M by now.

Difference between structural monopoly and inflation hedge...

I went to dental school from 1962 through 1966 U. of Alabama, state dental school. I had an aunt who encouraged me to do that, as I probably could not have afforded it otherwise, and she gave me $5,000 incrementally, she was a smart old woman, over 4 years. I also worked part-time and left school owing 800$ in student loans.

5K seems like nothing now almost, but back then it was a helluva lot of money in the neck of woods where I grew up. I think it costs something like 25-30K/year to go to Alabama now in dentistry plus fees on top of fees.

[GRG55]

Re: Your biggest trading regret the last few years?

Biggest trading regret? That's easy. Buying too much of everything that went down, and not enough of everything that went up. Shoulda listened to Will Rogers...

[Jim Nickerson]

Re: Your biggest trading regret the last few years?

My biggest trading error was not to have gotten out of the multitudinous number of high tech stocks I was in at beginning of 2000. Rather than sell, I experienced the ride to the bottom, but held on to recover to something better off than what was the bottom.

Actually, I don't regret having that experience. I learned a lot so I am richer in experience, but still today poorer in bonars, and much poorer in bonars when accounting for inflation. I lost ~ 2/3 of my wealth. It was bad enough I considered going back to work, but fortunately didn't have to do that.

[jimmygu3]

Re: Not Buying More Exxon Stock

Over the years, in the 80's, it would have been so easy to accumulate more at what is today a ridiculously low price (I live in Houston and worked in oil industry). In 1982-83, when I was young and financially naive, I had a spare $3000, I didn't know what to do with it so I bought some Exxon stock and never sold that batch, primarily due to inertia. It has turned out to be best investment I ever made, due to the splits and dividends.

I continued to accumulate some more Exxon stock over the 1980's. Worst decision I ever made was to sell maybe 20% of it in 2000 because Enron was making me nervous.

My grandmother bought a very small amount of Standard Oil stock in the '40s. After she passed away in the '70s, my Dad gave the (now Exxon) stock to my brother and me. When I bought my first house in '96, I cashed in most of mine for the downpayment. Dad encouraged me to keep a few shares for sentimental reasons, and sadly he passed away only months later. The shares I held onto are up 400%, or an annualized 15%. The money I put toward the house earned an annualized 150% during the 3 years I owned the house, due to the leveraged nature of mortgaged real estate. So selling Exxon right before it took off worked out for me.

I gather I'm a bit younger than most around here. I opened my first brokerage and retirement accounts in 1998, which is kind of like having your first kiss at an orgy. My perspective was pretty skewed by the irrational exuberance of the day. Even so, I knew the bubble would burst one day and I took some defensive positions before the crashes, but still took it on the chin for the most part. Some lessons I learned the hard way:

WebVan - Even if every customer loves a business, poor management and/or attempting to grow too fast can kill a company.

Worldcom and other falling knives - Just because it's down 50% doesn't mean it can't go down another... 100%. Analysts cannot be trusted. They are by and large hacks working for the brokerages that profit from overvalued stocks.

Churning - You can eat yourself up with commissions & spreads. Pick some companies, funds, or asset classes you believe in and leave the stuff alone!

No real regrets in the last few years. I have been 20-30% in PMs since '05. Went ~10% short stocks in '07, increased to ~20% shorts immediately following EJ's call at end of '07. Eliminated all Asian, European and EM stocks & funds in mid-'07 and increased positions in energy, commodities and hard currency. Bought into Alternative Energy fund which is down ~8%, but no regrets there.

Still have a little of Nana's Exxon, too.

Jimmy

[c1ue]

Re: Your biggest trading regret the last few years?

I went to dental school from 1962 through 1966 U. of Alabama, state dental school. I had an aunt who encouraged me to do that, as I probably could not have afforded it otherwise, and she gave me $5,000 incrementally, she was a smart old woman, over 4 years. I also worked part-time and left school owing 800$ in student loans.

5K seems like nothing now almost, but back then it was a helluva lot of money in the neck of woods where I grew up. I think it costs something like 25-30K/year to go to Alabama now in dentistry plus fees on top of fees.

Not saying $5K was not a lot of money in 1964 nor that your dental education was not a good investment, only that there is absolutely nothing you could have invested in at that time that would have gained you a compounded annual rate of over 20%.

Heck, putting in $10K in 1974 would have still netted you $8.6M - and it was clear by then what Sir Warren's operational model is.

[Jim Nickerson]

Re: Your biggest trading regret the last few years?

Not saying $5K was not a lot of money in 1964 nor that your dental education was not a good investment, only that there is absolutely nothing you could have invested in at that time that would have gained you a compounded annual rate of over 20%.

Heck, putting in $10K in 1974 would have still netted you $8.6M - and it was clear by then what Sir Warren's operational model is.

Hindsight is wonderful, no way around it.

So what exists right now that will have similar gains by 2041 the year marking 100 since my birth--not that I am worried too much about what's happening then.

[c1ue]

Re: Your biggest trading regret the last few years?

Sir Warren was saying a few years ago that the next 2 decades would see average gains around 4%, vs. the previous 10%+.

Given that - you can either try to time a commodity/gold/oil spike with the 2.3x as the average gain over 20 years, or use the cash to build something which will net you more.

Or, of course, disbelieve Sir Warren and do something else.

[renyxzar]

Re: Your biggest trading regret the last few years?

I am anewbie in trading. My biggest mistake was trading without a plan,not analyzing myself and my trades.

[lb]

Re: Your biggest trading regret the last few years?

There is no place in trading for regret.

[Nicolasd]

Re: Your biggest trading regret the last few years?

The classics, selling too fast the home runs and keeping the dogs too long.

I purchased a bunch of gold last september (In USD) only to sell a month later , scared away by the rapidely appreciating canadian dollar (or rapidely depreciating US dollar-take you poison) making my investment returns marginal in my home currency for that period.

In the end , I re-entered last december in both gold and silver and will take a few deep breaths ( or close the lap-top) to avoid similar mistakes

[Guest]

Re: Your biggest trading regret the last few years?

Nicolas -

Your photo-avatar does not suggest that you are the fast-trading type at all. I think slower trading decisions are good anyway. Good macro-sector decisions need time to make you the really big returns. So your avatar is 'lucky for trades'. ;)


Jesse Livermore: "Be right, and sit tight".

[Nicolasd]

Re: Your biggest trading regret the last few years?

Bonjour Luke

I like the suggestion --Lucky for trade-- and yes , I finally made all the rigth decisions based on macro-sector and this brings me an immense amount of peace and comfort.

That being said , I became hyper-active last November and day traded half the portfolio on BRIC ETF's four times. Third time was the charm , but fourth time , I became careless , and it lasted a week instead of just one day :eek: .

Perhaps , a rabbit avatar would be more appropriate :p but in the end the turtle takes its time and wins the race so I will keep this "lucky for trade" status

[ax]

Re: Your biggest trading regret the last few years?

Nice to see you guys admit you've been wrong once or twice. For me, it's been S. Florida real estate. Regret buying my home in 04', not 02'. Don't regret not buying additional real estate down here, the thought had crossed my mind. Also regret not shorting all the homebuilders along with my Countrywide puts in 06'. My wife was working for one at the time, should've seen the writing on the wall much sooner.