Your biggest trading regret the last few years?

[blazespinnaker]

Mine will be, above all, not buying up 2 year US treasuries before the fall.

I had a horizon that was compatible and the vehicles I've been in weren't exactly returning that much more than what the treasuries were themselves.

The only thing I would have lost on would have been the currency (I'm canadian) .. still, it could have been a good, large, safe bet, and I could have seen 20-40% appreciation.

Though, I have to admit, I would have been nervous as hell late in 2007 when the CAD was kicking major butt on the USD. I've learned since then, though, that there was really no chance that the CAD was going to keep those gains.

[barrydd933]

Re: Your biggest trading regret the last few years?

Held Apple at 15,sold at 33 a few years back,no J.P. Morgan I !!!!!!

[BiscayneSunrise]

Re: Your biggest trading regret the last few years?

I have been invested in uranium mining companies since 2003. They have been pretty volatile but I have done well just holding them. This past summer they suffered through a 50%+ correction. I saw it coming but held too long through the downturn. Thankfully, I was still able to get out profitably and now that they have appeared to have bottomed, I have re-entered the trade.

Moral of the story: Stay diversified (PM's, energy & carefully selected infrastructure) and if everything is going against you, don't be afraid to just step aside from the trade for a while.

[rabot10]

Re: Your biggest trading regret the last few years?

Trying to outsmart the Glod and Silver markets by trading in and out rather than just buy and hold.

[Basil]

Re: Your biggest trading regret the last few years?

[quote=BiscayneSunrise;28656]I have been invested in uranium mining companies since 2003. They have been pretty volatile but I have done well just holding them. This past summer they suffered through a 50%+ correction. I saw it coming but held too long through the downturn. Thankfully, I was still able to get out profitably and now that they have appeared to have bottomed, I have re-entered the trade.

So how do you intend to play this now? Any recommendations?

My greatest regret is that I kept my money with a money manager that could not see the big picture. He was long the dollar far above 80 and long Citi. I got him out of both of those positions and implored him to buy SDS, as he did. As a result I broke even, but had I followed the advice on this site more closely--had I followed my own instinct-rather than listening to all the buy and hold swamis--I most likely would have made a handsome profit. In the 20% of my own money that I manage myself, I am up over 20% in the past 8 months.

I fired my previous money manager and am moving some money over to Ty Andros and some to Delta Global Advisors as they both agree with the bearish outlook most of us have here, but have very different strategies.

[c1ue]

Re: Your biggest trading regret the last few years?

Not buying BKH in 2000 when they were under 40K.

Given my undiluted admiration for Sir Warren, this was inexcusable.

The money went other ways and did fine, but nonetheless getting into Sir Warren's racket would have been much better use of time.

[BiscayneSunrise]

Re: Your biggest trading regret the last few years?

Basil,

I am now holding a much smaller amount of U stocks as a proportion of my total portfolio (20% in U along with the remainder in PM and other energy, gives me a much nicer and smoother uptrend line). I am also holding only a small handful of the best of breed uranium producers and an even smaller number of the junior explorers. Over the past year, these stocks became volatile in such an abnormal way, partly due to their small float and partly due to trader whipsawing, that I am more inclined to trade them than before.

And if they don't calm down some, I may have to forego them altogether. As iTulip, Rick,C1ue and others have pointed out, in this market you may be better off just holding PM's exclusively and go out and enjoy your life along with many happy returns.

[metalman]

Re: Your biggest trading regret the last few years?

Not buying BKH in 2000 when they were under 40K.

Given my undiluted admiration for Sir Warren, this was inexcusable.

The money went other ways and did fine, but nonetheless getting into Sir Warren's racket would have been much better use of time.

no putting all my money into gold/silver/platinum in 2001.

but that's why we diversify... not every bet can win.

[Jim Nickerson]

Re: Your biggest trading regret the last few years?

Trying to outsmart the Glod and Silver markets by trading in and out rather than just buy and hold.

Congratulations, Rick, or making a post that didn't end in "lol" I've become convinced that you are the jolliest fellow who visits iTulip.

So do you really have as much silver as Top Investors shows? If so, it to right now is rather brilliant, but if I had enough money to put that much into one asset allocation, I would not be here looking for more information about wealth, I don't think, even if I had 10 daughters.

Assuming there is some actuality to your silver allocation, what influenced your thinking to make such a bet?

[Jim Nickerson]

Re: Your biggest trading regret the last few years?

[quote=Basil;28661]

I have been invested in uranium mining companies since 2003. They have been pretty volatile but I have done well just holding them. This past summer they suffered through a 50%+ correction. I saw it coming but held too long through the downturn. Thankfully, I was still able to get out profitably and now that they have appeared to have bottomed, I have re-entered the trade.

So how do you intend to play this now? Any recommendations?

My greatest regret is that I kept my money with a money manager that could not see the big picture. He was long the dollar far above 80 and long Citi. I got him out of both of those positions and implored him to buy SDS, as he did. As a result I broke even, but had I followed the advice on this site more closely--had I followed my own instinct-rather than listening to all the buy and hold swamis--I most likely would have made a handsome profit. In the 20% of my own money that I manage myself, I am up over 20% in the past 8 months.

I fired my previous money manager and am moving some money over to Ty Andros and some to Delta Global Advisors as they both agree with the bearish outlook most of us have here, but have very different strategies.

Why do you choose to trust others with your money more than you trust yourself?

[Jim Nickerson]

Re: Your biggest trading regret the last few years?

Generally, if not always, I think it is a waste of time and unnecessarily mentally burdensome to lament or regret one's past mistakes or misjudgements if one's pscyhe allows shoving such into the recesses of one's mind.

Get over it, learn from it, and recognize ain't no one yet going to change the past. Time is better spent looking for the answer for what to do now.

[Andreuccio]

Re: Your biggest trading regret the last few years?

no putting all my money into gold/silver/platinum in 2001.

but that's why we diversify... not every bet can win.

Not selling my house in '06. I think it was mostly the hassle factor that kept me from doing it. Moving's not easy, and I just didn't want to deal with it then. But if I had just sucked it up and done it I'd be way ahead financially now.

[blazespinnaker]

Re: Your biggest trading regret the last few years?

Generally, if not always, I think it is a waste of time and unnecessarily mentally burdensome to lament or regret one's past mistakes or misjudgements if one's pscyhe allows shoving such into the recesses of one's mind.

Get over it, learn from it, and recognize ain't no one yet going to change the past. Time is better spent looking for the answer for what to do now.

Actually, I frequently revisit my trading history. I find it very informative.

The key is to appreciate when you wouldn't have done anything differently. I frequently look back at trades and realise that I wouldn't have done anything differently. Just because something went up a lot or down a lot, doesn't necessarily mean it was a fat pitch before it actually happened.

A fat pitch is when something comes a long which should have been clear. The internet stock bubble. The market dive in 2002. The after effects of deeply low interest rates. Stuff like that. Apple's stock rise, I have to say, I don't think is a fat pitch.

[Guest]

Re: Your biggest trading regret the last few years?

Bought Krispy Kreme Doughnuts at around 30, watched it rise to over 40, but was so busy with work I didn't keep up with things and when I checked back it was because of reports in the news. By then it was at 20. Compounded things by assuming their lies were true and this was a temporary thing, bought more at 20, saw it drop to 10, and finally sold at 12.

Could have just bought gold and/or commodities during this period and done very well. Unfortunately the EJ book wasn't out then and my understanding of macroeconomics was near zero. I had a sneaking suspicious the "prosperity" was fake and due to credit but had read nothing saying so at the time.

I KNEW KKD's problems were not due to Atkins, which was what some claimed. I think it was just poor management and the mistake of putting their product in grocery stores which destroyed the cache'

[Jim Nickerson]

Re: Your biggest trading regret the last few years?

Bought Krispy Kreme Doughnuts at around 30, watched it rise to over 40, but was so busy with work I didn't keep up with things and when I checked back it was because of reports in the news. By then it was at 20. Compounded things by assuming their lies were true and this was a temporary thing, bought more at 20, saw it drop to 10, and finally sold at 12.

Could have just bought gold and/or commodities during this period and done very well. Unfortunately the EJ book wasn't out then and my understanding of macroeconomics was near zero. I had a sneaking suspicious the "prosperity" was fake and due to credit but had read nothing saying so at the time.

I KNEW KKD's problems were not due to Atkins, which was what some claimed. I think it was just poor management and the mistake of putting their product in grocery stores which destroyed the cache'

You might even ask just how much are doughnuts really worth, and in my opinion, one should ask the same question about coffee--SBX.