So-cal:- Foreclosers beat sales!

[Mega]

http://www.mercurynews.com/realestat...nclick_check=1

I think this is shocking!

Someone tell EJ
Mike

[Mega]

Re: So-cal:- Foreclosers beat sales!

"ForeclosureRadar, a Discovery Bay real estate research firm, said 19,821 California homes went into foreclosure in January, representing about $8 billion in home loans."

Oh Sh*t !
Call Eric now!
Mike

[Rajiv]

Re: So-cal:- Foreclosers beat sales!

Mike, Sean O'Toole of Foreclosure Radar is a regular here -- and posts quite often. In fact he set up his company after taking part in the housing bubble discussions at Itulip.

[Jim Nickerson]

Re: So-cal:- Foreclosers beat sales!

http://www.mercurynews.com/realestat...nclick_check=1

I think this is shocking!

Someone tell EJ
Mike

Your link isn't working.

[Rajiv]

Re: So-cal:- Foreclosers beat sales!

Jim it worked for me after not working the first couple of times

[metalman]

Re: So-cal:- Foreclosers beat sales!

"ForeclosureRadar, a Discovery Bay real estate research firm, said 19,821 California homes went into foreclosure in January, representing about $8 billion in home loans."

Oh Sh*t !
Call Eric now!
Mike

o'toole got his start here. you ain't paying attention. google search foreclosure radar.

[Jim Nickerson]

Re: So-cal:- Foreclosers beat sales!

http://www.mercurynews.com/realestat...nclick_check=1

Here's the article. Googleearth "discovery bay, ca"

It looks like villi in the intestine, as I remember villi.

Foreclosures exceed sales
JAN. DATA REFLECTs STATE'S GRIM MARKET
By Pete Carey and Sue McAllister
Mercury News
Article Launched: 02/23/2008 01:34:20 AM PST






For what one expert thought was the first time, the number of monthly foreclosures exceeded the number of monthly home sales in California in January, according to data compiled by two research companies.

The data is a grim reflection of the worsening housing market, as the number of homeowners who can't or won't make their payments rises and the number of home buyers dwindles.

ForeclosureRadar, a Discovery Bay real estate research firm, said 19,821 California homes went into foreclosure in January, representing about $8 billion in home loans.

Meanwhile, DataQuick reported 19,145 home and condo sales in January.
In December, there were 12,783 foreclosures, according to ForeclosureRadar, and 25,585 home and condo sales, according to DataQuick.

Sean O'Toole of ForeclosureRadar said he doubts there has ever been another time when the number of foreclosures exceeded the number of sales in a month.

DataQuick's numbers are for closed transactions that occurred in January. ForeclosureRadar uses its own proprietary method of gathering foreclosure data.
"There's no way a market that slow can clear these kinds of foreclosures," said Christopher Thornberg of Beacon Economics, a Bay Area research and consulting firm. "What that number says to me is you have more homes getting dumped on the market in terms of foreclosures than there is demand for homes."

[metalman]

Re: So-cal:- Foreclosers beat sales!

http://www.mercurynews.com/realestat...nclick_check=1

Here's the article. Googleearth "discovery bay, ca"

It looks like villi in the intestine, as I remember villi.

our sean's getting famous! world famous califorina real estate vulture!

what's "villi"?

[Jim Nickerson]

Re: So-cal:- Foreclosers beat sales!

our sean's getting famous! world famous califorina real estate vulture!

what's "villi"?

Well, googler-metalman, googleearth for "discovery bay, CA" and you will see (I guess your google earth will show as mine did) a picture of Discovery Bay which seems to be man-made jettys, I guess jettys is the word, or connected islands on which tons of homes with boat docks are built. The view I saw reminded me of villi which as I said if I remember correctly look like little fingers that increase the surface area of the gut to allow greater absorption. I am sure if I am wrong about that, someone will correct me. I am not googling it to check it out. Hopefully it isn't too erroneous. It certainly isn't very important when it comes to investing and making money.

[SeanO]

Re: So-cal:- Foreclosers beat sales!

http://www.mercurynews.com/realestat...nclick_check=1

Here's the article. Googleearth "discovery bay, ca"

It looks like villi in the intestine, as I remember villi.

Well it is a lot more fun here than I imagine the "villi" would be. Yes, it is a series of bays on the CA Delta in the middle of the cornfields but connected to the SF Bay and Pacific. Has some of the best waterskiing on the planet, which happens to be my preferred form of exercise.

As for the Merc story, note that - 19,821 California properties were SOLD at auction in January - whereas nearly 40,000 entered foreclosure. Also that is statewide not just SoCal. Eric actually posted that earlier this month here... http://www.itulip.com/forums/showthr...y+foreclosures

The piece of data that is new is that DataQuick just released their sales numbers showing that only 19,145 properties were sold by all other methods - which beside being fewer than sold at foreclosure auction, was also the lowest number since 1988. See... http://www.dqnews.com/RRCA0208.shtm.

Things really deteriorated here in January, which I hinted at here mid January here... http://www.itulip.com/forums/showthr...25008#poststop.

It looks like we will see a bit of a drop in February, though likely just because it is a short month.

That said I have a few Realtors here telling me that things are looking up. With prices down so far they are starting to see stuff sell again. In the Stockton area you can now buy a nice 3/2 for about the same price as a mobile home just 18 months ago.

Best Regards,

Sean O'Toole
ForeclosureRadar.com

[GRG55]

Re: So-cal:- Foreclosers beat sales!

Well it is a lot more fun here than I imagine the "villi" would be. Yes, it is a series of bays on the CA Delta in the middle of the cornfields but connected to the SF Bay and Pacific. Has some of the best waterskiing on the planet, which happens to be my preferred form of exercise...

...That said I have a few Realtors here telling me that things are looking up. With prices down so far they are starting to see stuff sell again. In the Stockton area you can now buy a nice 3/2 for about the same price as a mobile home just 18 months ago.

Best Regards,

Sean O'Toole
ForeclosureRadar.com

Let's all move to Stockton, where the livin's cheap. Then crash Sean's waterskiing parties up at that nice development on SF Bay...

[DemonD]

Re: So-cal:- Foreclosers beat sales!

I was having an argument with someone on another site and found the wiki on stockton. Here is a fun little blurb to digest:

The median income for a household in the city was $35,453, and the median income for a family was $40,434. Males had a median income of $35,181 versus $26,602 for females. The per capita income for the city was $15,405. About 18.9% of families and 23.9% of the population were below the poverty line, including 32.8% of those under age 18 and 11.9% of those age 65 or over.

In 2005, Forbes magazine listed it as having 6,570 crimes per 100,000 residents[6] — the highest listed;[7] and 0.8% of engineers within total employment[8] — the lowest listed.[7] The city had the 7th lowest (of 150) educational attainment (bachelor's degree or higher over the age 25).[9]

Central Connecticut State University surveys from 2005 and 2006 ranked the city as the most illiterate of all U.S. cities with a population of more than 250,000.[10][11][12]

Yup, that's a place I want to move to!

Also, sean, i saw a news thing and they are doing auctions in stockton - seems more like a lot of knifecatching dumb money and wannabe investors than actual homeowners.

I will say that the under 250k priced homes are an improvement. Still looks like a long way down though, if median household income is an indicator, then add 10% just for being in california, you still get about 145k with the basic 3x/annual income.

[GRG55]

Re: So-cal:- Foreclosers beat sales!

I was having an argument with someone on another site and found the wiki on stockton. Here is a fun little blurb to digest:

"...Central Connecticut State University surveys from 2005 and 2006 ranked the city as the most illiterate of all U.S. cities with a population of more than 250,000.[10][11][12]..."

Yup, that's a place I want to move to!
...

Don't they grow food around Stockton?

Cheap housing. Plus we can escape inclusion in the millions that JN is predicting will soon starve (in order to reduce humans marginal propensity to consume global foodstuffs to force match with the soon to be limited supply of same).

And still waterski.

Unless, of course, peak oil cuts off the fuel supply to Sean's big outboard...

[SeanO]

Re: So-cal:- Foreclosers beat sales!

Don't they grow food around Stockton?

Cheap housing. Plus we can escape inclusion in the millions that JN is predicting will soon starve (in order to reduce humans marginal propensity to consume global foodstuffs to force match with the soon to be limited supply of same).

And still waterski.

Unless, of course, peak oil cuts off the fuel supply to Sean's big outboard...

You guys are cracking me up. While close in distance, Disco seems worlds away from Stockton on some fronts... like crime. My boat is pretty fuel efficient, but note that fuel on the water is already near $5/gal. High enough to make hauling gas cans a worthwhile alternative.

I think the current up-tick I mentioned above could be housings equivalent of a dead cat bounce. Like when my friends called me at 3000 to tell me NOW was the time to get back in to the Nasdaq.

That said, Stockton has been among the hardest hit areas in the nation, and prices are down 30-50% already. Being just an hour away from the SF Peninsula where prices haven't really moved much so far, Stockton has become a relative bargain once again - and one where prices are now starting to be supported by rents. Keep in mind the SF Bay Area employs an awful lot of people that can't afford to live there - and if you've ever been on the 580 after 3pm you know a ton of folks are headed that direction.

Best,
Sean

[metalman]

Re: So-cal:- Foreclosers beat sales!

You guys are cracking me up. While close in distance, Disco seems worlds away from Stockton on some fronts... like crime. My boat is pretty fuel efficient, but note that fuel on the water is already near $5/gal. High enough to make hauling gas cans a worthwhile alternative.

I think the current up-tick I mentioned above could be housings equivalent of a dead cat bounce. Like when my friends called me at 3000 to tell me NOW was the time to get back in to the Nasdaq.

That said, Stockton has been among the hardest hit areas in the nation, and prices are down 30-50% already. Being just an hour away from the SF Peninsula where prices haven't really moved much so far, Stockton has become a relative bargain once again - and one where prices are now starting to be supported by rents. Keep in mind the SF Bay Area employs an awful lot of people that can't afford to live there - and if you've ever been on the 580 after 3pm you know a ton of folks are headed that direction.

Best,
Sean

might it be this phenomenon? hasn't rippled in yet...