Citi.....Its going DOWN!

[jk]

Re: Citi.....Its going DOWN!

So, jk, where are you hanging out in order to learn what the crowd is thinking?

I 'hang" with the sentiment surveys, market breadth, and the put/call data.

jim, the sentiment numbers, put/call ratios etc are geared to a shorter term time frame than i use. you are more of a trader than i. i am looking for trends that will play out over months to years, while you are trying to catch moves that last days to weeks to maybe sometimes months.

Not answering for jk of course.

For me the rumours and "gossip" add context to the "facts".

As you know I am not much of a market technician or chart reader, so I watch some other things to figure out what the crowd is thinking, and more important, to try to figure out what the crowd might be thinking in the not too distant future.

for me it's all grist for the mill in producing a picture of how the economy and society will be unfolding over the coming months to years. it's gossip posted here, it's stories in the ny times or on the radio, it's economic factoids or investment tidbits picked up here or on certain blogs i read or services to which i subscribe.

i am really macro in my thinking, a top-down investor. i decided 5-6 years ago to buy pm's for reasons i've already described. over these years i've trimmed and expanded my holdings, never going below 20% or above about 34% [so far; i expect to let the percentage increase in the next months-to-years period]. i've noticed that over the last 4-6 months or so bloomberg business radio now SOMETIMES gives the gold price during its every-10-minute market summary. i've noted that an a.m. nyc all-news station still NEVER gives the gold price during its half-hourly business summary, while i recall that in the late '70s that same station reported the gold price EVERY HALF HOUR. when they start reporting gold every half-hour again, as i expect they will at some point in the future, i will know that we are getting close to the end of the run.

i've mentioned that i've trimmed and added to my position at times, trying to catch shorter term moves. i have not been very good at that, so i've stopped trying. those moves, or similar moves in equities, however, are what you are trying to catch with the indicators you use. i'm sure it's possible, but it's not a way of thinking that i find congenial.

[Jim Nickerson]

Re: Citi.....Its going DOWN!

jim, the sentiment numbers, put/call ratios etc are geared to a shorter term time frame than i use. you are more of a trader than i. i am looking for trends that will play out over months to years, while you are trying to catch moves that last days to weeks to maybe sometimes months.



for me it's all grist for the mill in producing a picture of how the economy and society will be unfolding over the coming months to years. it's gossip posted here, it's stories in the ny times or on the radio, it's economic factoids or investment tidbits picked up here or on certain blogs i read or services to which i subscribe.

i am really macro in my thinking, a top-down investor. i decided 5-6 years ago to buy pm's for reasons i've already described. over these years i've trimmed and expanded my holdings, never going below 20% or above about 34% [so far; i expect to let the percentage increase in the next months-to-years period]. i've noticed that over the last 4-6 months or so bloomberg business radio now SOMETIMES gives the gold price during its every-10-minute market summary. i've noted that an a.m. nyc all-news station still NEVER gives the gold price during its half-hourly business summary, while i recall that in the late '70s that same station reported the gold price EVERY HALF HOUR. when they start reporting gold every half-hour again, as i expect they will at some point in the future, i will know that we are getting close to the end of the run.

i've mentioned that i've trimmed and added to my position at times, trying to catch shorter term moves. i have not been very good at that, so i've stopped trying. those moves, or similar moves in equities, however, are what you are trying to catch with the indicators you use. i'm sure it's possible, but it's not a way of thinking that i find congenial.

jk, if it happens while your brain, fingers, and computer are still working will you come back here and announce that the nyc all-news station has begun again to give gold price quotes every half hour?

I probably have long needed psychiatric care because the longer I am alive the more I shut myself off from the business news (5-6 years), the evening news (3-4 years) and US radio news PBS (2 years). I do listen to the BBC each night as I go to sleep, but probably don't recall much the next day. In its business reports not much is added to what I have picked up here or on the web somewhere. Point being I am less unhappy with the less I hear from the outside world. Do I need meds?

From time to time I check http://www.alexa/data/details/traffic_details/kitco.com which supposedly shows traffic to kitco.com. I have no idea as whether is has any validity to demonstrating the true interest that may exist with regard to precious metals. The current runup in PM's has not produced so much traffic as did the spike up in gold in Q206. If there is any validity to the traffic graph it suggests there is a long way to go before the crowd becomes manic in its interest in PM's.

[FRED]

Re: Citi.....Its going DOWN!

jk, if it happens while your brain, fingers, and computer are still working will you come back here and announce that the nyc all-news station has begun again to give gold price quotes every half hour?

I probably have long needed psychiatric care because the longer I am alive the more I shut myself off from the business news (5-6 years), the evening news (3-4 years) and US radio news PBS (2 years). I do listen to the BBC each night as I go to sleep, but probably don't recall much the next day. In its business reports not much is added to what I have picked up here or on the web somewhere. Point being I am less unhappy with the less I hear from the outside world. Do I need meds?

From time to time I check http://www.alexa/data/details/traffic_details/kitco.com which supposedly shows traffic to kitco.com. I have no idea as whether is has any validity to demonstrating the true interest that may exist with regard to precious metals. The current runup in PM's has not produced so much traffic as did the spike up in gold in Q206. If there is any validity to the traffic graph it suggests there is a long way to go before the crowd becomes manic in its interest in PM's.

Google Trends is also instructive.

[c1ue]

Re: Citi.....Its going DOWN!

More on the ground info:

2 of the owners in the owner's training I went to were ex-financial types: 1 a CFP in Connecticut, the other a New Jersey/New York trader.

Both have been buying gold coins and small gold bullion 'collectibles' for over a year.

I'd say this indicates a more than specialist interest in inflation hedge commodities - note also that all 3 of us had bought into what I had chosen as a low hierarchy of needs business.

[Jim Nickerson]

Re: Citi.....Its going DOWN!

To answer my own question, http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/080222/wall_street.html?.v=49



To support Eric's contention, sort of, notice "rumor" rather than "gossip" in this dude's comment.

From looking at the gains on MBI and ABK today, it seems there must have been some truth to the rumors or gossip that turned the markets up late Friday. So what is next, the news, which I do not follow while the markets are open, and the selling tomorrow.

[metalman]

Re: Citi.....Its going DOWN!

From looking at the gains on MBI and ABK today, it seems there must have been some truth to the rumors or gossip that turned the markets up late Friday. So what is next, the news, which I do not follow while the markets are open, and the selling tomorrow.

proof is in the pudding, as they say.

[jk]

Re: Citi.....Its going DOWN!

From looking at the gains on MBI and ABK today, it seems there must have been some truth to the rumors or gossip that turned the markets up late Friday. So what is next, the news, which I do not follow while the markets are open, and the selling tomorrow.

putting $3billion into abk is a joke- they insure [iirc] $549billion. ratifying mbia's aaa rating is another joke- they just raised some money by issuing paper paying 14% - a typical aaa interest rate just like other aaa credits such as the u.s. gov't and ge pay.:rolleyes: apparently the market, demanding 14% rates on their paper, is not taking their aaa very seriously.

[metalman]

Re: Citi.....Its going DOWN!

putting $3billion into abk is a joke- they insure [iirc] $549billion. ratifying mbia's aaa rating is another joke- they just raised some money by issuing paper paying 14% - a typical aaa interest rate just like other aaa credits such as the u.s. gov't and ge pay.:rolleyes: apparently the market, demanding 14% rates on their paper, is not taking their aaa very seriously.

peeing on a forest fire.

[Jim Nickerson]

Re: Citi.....Its going DOWN!

I still have not gotten around to reading the news of today, but something moved the markets. I believe it is Alan Newman--Crosscurrents--whom I read sometimes over at decisionpoint.com who makes the point that most of the trading volume these days is institutional which makes me think--in my little brain--that their actions must have something to do with moves such as today's which was not that shabby, except volume on the NYSE sucked as did the volume for the four days of last week and the two weeks before that.

The equity markets' indices are still all below their highs obtained during the last trip up that ended on 2/1/07 and was reached with much better volume than has been occurring since then. However, back on 2/1 and 2/2 the breadths of the NYSE and Nasdaq (to a lesser extent) were much more overbought than is indicated now, so I guess there is still some room for this move to continue up, whether or not that happens remains to be seen.

[GRG55]

Re: Citi.....Its going DOWN!

peeing on a forest fire.

...and from the downwind side of the conflagration too!

[metalman]

Re: Citi.....Its going DOWN!

I still have not gotten around to reading the news of today, but something moved the markets. I believe it is Alan Newman--Crosscurrents--whom I read sometimes over at decisionpoint.com who makes the point that most of the trading volume these days is institutional which makes me think--in my little brain--that their actions must have something to do with moves such as today's which was not that shabby, except volume on the NYSE sucked as did the volume for the four days of last week and the two weeks before that.

The equity markets' indices are still all below their highs obtained during the last trip up that ended on 2/1/07 and was reached with much better volume than has been occurring since then. However, back on 2/1 and 2/2 the breadths of the NYSE and Nasdaq (to a lesser extent) were much more overbought than is indicated now, so I guess there is still some room for this move to continue up, whether or not that happens remains to be seen.

debt deflation bear market. reflation boom is over. this puppy is going down. ej said more than 50% of the capital in the markets is funds. think ron ward said that in an interview as did others he interviewed.

you are way more of a trader than i am. my idea of trading is sell stocks buy gold in 1970, sell gold buy stock indexes 1980, sell stocks go to cash 2000, buy gold in 2001 and wait for a sign that stocks will come back.

all this trading in and out in between makes your brokerage happy but does nothing for your bottom line.

[touchring]

Re: Citi.....Its going DOWN!

debt deflation bear market. reflation boom is over. this puppy is going down.

So, we're gona to have deflation? Or what? :confused:

[Jim Nickerson]

Re: Citi.....Its going DOWN!

debt deflation bear market. reflation boom is over. this puppy is going down. ej said more than 50% of the capital in the markets is funds. think ron ward said that in an interview as did others he interviewed.

you are way more of a trader than i am. my idea of trading is sell stocks buy gold in 1970, sell gold buy stock indexes 1980, sell stocks go to cash 2000, buy gold in 2001 and wait for a sign that stocks will come back.

all this trading in and out in between makes your brokerage happy but does nothing for your bottom line.

metalman, you are making some assumptions here, I think. You'd have to look at my bottom line before you could assert "nothing."

In 11/97 I traded 1000 shrs of SPY for 95.59/shr and the brokerage fee at Scwhab was 190.55.

11/98 1000 shrs NXTL @ 11.34 fee 82.87

11/99 1000 shrs TTF @ 7.50 fee 29.95

Since a rather long time now, stock trades have cost me 9.95 plus exchange fees on sells.

I got a letter the other day from Schwab where online trading fee is 8.95 and I didn't even look to see if that is for an order of any size or just 1000 share orders.

It these fees today make Schwab happy, good. They are insignificant as far as I am concerned.

I take it from your posts somewhere you own a "lot," whatever that is, of real PM's. What will be your spread and taxes when you sell those?

Whatever it is, it will not be insignificant--or at least it wouldn't be to me.

This issue of whether to buy and hold anything or to attempt to buy low and sell high during the up and downs surely differs among those of us here. Who is to say who is correct? If it were a contest, we'd have to submit our brokerage statements to a third party to decide.

Counting quickly, I have made ~40 stock trades this year. Fees about $400, that is not jack-shit as I see it.