Citi.....Its going DOWN!

[Jim Nickerson]

Re: Citi.....Its going DOWN!

Jim,

From the home page: "There is the dangerous cliché in the financial world that everything depends on confidence. One could better argue the importance of unremitting suspicion.” - J. K. Galbraith

How's this for a finance and economics web site analogy: it is like a restaurant. Every time you go the food has to be fresh and unique. You may go for years then one day you go and the food is not good. You think, "That's too bad. Well maybe the chef is sick. I'll try again." You go back and the food is up to snuff and you forget the bad visit. But if you go back and the food is bad again, twice in a row, will you go back? Probably not, at least not for a while even if you've been going for years.

If iTulip out of 100 articles writes two that give questionable advice we lose a lot of readers. That's why if we, on rare occasion, share one of out 100 rumors we hear it is because we believe that risk is low.

Yet this is not nearly as hard as running your average high end restaurant. I have friends who do and it's wildly difficult. The product is every single plate of food. A near infinite variability of inputs – source of ingredients, dishes, method, labor, etc. – yet with a customer expectation of near perfect output consistency, both product and service. The trick is to make each unique plate of food as good as the last that each customer ever had, the uniqueness of a hand crafted product with the consistency of a mass produced product. The more complex the preparation, the harder this is to do.

This is why most people who run good high end restaurants are often quite odd: perfectionistic, exacting, obsessive.

Eric

Eric, not uncommonly do you lose me, meaning I am incapable of sorting out (grasping the full meaning of) what your write, usually this refers to matters economic, "bankical," or financial, but it seems we are not on those issues exactly here now.

You'll likely never know, but I was driven by the goal of perfection for many years, and looking back it was a fool's journey. I fully agree with aiming as high as one can in order to achieve a goal, but with the realization that one will not achieve perfection, one will have to accept and deal with something less than perfect.

I'm into trying to be "exacting" and am too goddammed "obsessive" so I think I can relate to what I perceive may be a part of what drives you,
BUT, I will wager you 20 bonars, there is not 5% of people who visit iTulip who expect to get only "perfectionistic" information. Such isn't realistic, nor do I think expected by visitors or members here except by individuals who I likely would judge as foolish. You know better than anyone your track record (you reference it enough--seriously joking) so the end result of that is your site and you are credible.

If you think you can never fail at what you do and strive to achieve that, I think you are headed for a short lifetime. No one can do better than the best that they can do, and even when the effort may be the best, the results may come up a degree or three short.

I think you and your supporting staff, informants, and whoever else is on your end would have to fuckup mightly to lose interest from the people who choose to visit here. You obviously are not into just blowing idle smoke.

Back to what if I can recall so long ago that started this was a post by FRED that I labeled then as gossip (unbeknownst that it would cause so much discussion). I hope none of this is actually in defense of FRED's post, which I took as worthless, because by my definition, it was gossip. That post did nothing to the credibility of you, or even FRED, whoever he is, or whichever one it was, and certainly not iTulip--at least in my eyes.

Actually, I don't look upon iTulip as anything other than a web address where I know I can go for some information that interests me and that has made me a bit smarter. At iTulip you "reside" and you have some good insights. To me iTulip represents no philosophy, or set of rules by which some group of people interested in investment act. It represents a place where you, EJ, put forth your ideas and analyses as do a few other very bright contributors. I sure as hell do not spend time here looking for the perfect answer to how I invest, simply because no one, including you, is going to put it forth.

It's looking to me as if this discourse should be reaching its endpoint sometime soon.

Hang in there, EJ.

[EJ]

Re: Citi.....Its going DOWN!

Eric, not uncommonly do you lose me, meaning I am incapable of sorting out (grasping the full meaning of) what your write, usually this refers to matters economic, "bankical," or financial, but it seems we are not on those issues exactly here now.

You'll likely never know, but I was driven by the goal of perfection for many years, and looking back it was a fool's journey. I fully agree with aiming as high as one can in order to achieve a goal, but with the realization that one will not achieve perfection, one will have to accept and deal with something less than perfect.

I'm into trying to be "exacting" and am too goddammed "obsessive" so I think I can relate to what I perceive may be a part of what drives you,
BUT, I will wager you 20 bonars, there is not 5% of people who visit iTulip who expect to get only "perfectionistic" information. Such isn't realistic, nor do I think expected by visitors or members here except by individuals who I likely would judge as foolish. You know better than anyone your track record (you reference it enough--seriously joking) so the end result of that is your site and you are credible.

If you think you can never fail at what you do and strive to achieve that, I think you are headed for a short lifetime. No one can do better than the best that they can do, and even when the effort may be the best, the results may come up a degree or three short.

I think you and your supporting staff, informants, and whoever else is on your end would have to fuckup mightly to lose interest from the people who choose to visit here. You obviously are not into just blowing idle smoke.

Back to what if I can recall so long ago that started this was a post by FRED that I labeled then as gossip (unbeknownst that it would cause so much discussion). I hope none of this is actually in defense of FRED's post, which I took as worthless, because by my definition, it was gossip. That post did nothing to the credibility of you, or even FRED, whoever he is, or whichever one it was, and certainly not iTulip--at least in my eyes.

Actually, I don't look upon iTulip as anything other than a web address where I know I can go for some information that interests me and that has made me a bit smarter. At iTulip you "reside" and you have some good insights. To me iTulip represents no philosophy, or set of rules by which some group of people interested in investment act. It represents a place where you, EJ, put forth your ideas and analyses as do a few other very bright contributors. I sure as hell do not spend time here looking for the perfect answer to how I invest, simply because no one, including you, is going to put it forth.

It's looking to me as if this discourse should be reaching its endpoint sometime soon.

Hang in there, EJ.

Jim,

You are a great guy and your response is much appreciated.

Actually, I wasn't complaining. I really am glad I'm not running a restaurant. Too much work!

iTulip in fact has several quite distinct philosophies and I'm surprised you have not picked up on them. Maybe others here can fill you in.

Glad you are not looking for the perfect answer because if you have learned anything here it is that there isn't one. Not for everyone and not for all time.

There is a continuous flow of change in the markets and the economy; the art is in understanding the flow and nature of the change. It is an enormous waste of time to try to pin things down. Pinning down the markets and economy is like describing an amoeba so that someone can identify it later. You can say what's in an amoeba, its components, but a description which is at any time accurate is in a moment inaccurate. The only difference with markets is that they change more slowly, except when they are changing quickly. This fact is quite frustrating to minds that are looking for absolutes.

Eric

[Jim Nickerson]

Re: Citi.....Its going DOWN!

Jim,

You are a great guy and your response is much appreciated.

Actually, I wasn't complaining. I really am glad I'm not running a restaurant. Too much work!

iTulip in fact has several quite distinct philosophies and I'm surprised you have not picked up on them. Maybe others here can fill you in.

Glad you are not looking for the perfect answer because if you have learned anything here it is that there isn't one. Not for everyone and not for all time.

There is a continuous flow of change in the markets and the economy; the art is in understanding the flow and nature of the change. It is an enormous waste of time to try to pin things down. Pinning down the markets and economy is like describing an amoeba so that someone can identify it later. You can say what's in an amoeba, its components, but a description which is at any time accurate is in a moment inaccurate. The only difference with markets is that they change more slowly, except when they are changing quickly. This fact is quite frustrating to minds that are looking for absolutes.

Eric

Probably, if someone gave me a multiple choice exam with regard to what are the philosophies of iTulip, I would pass. I'm not here because of whatever are those philosophies. I'm here becasue I think it is a good place for what seems to me to be worthwhile information--even given the limitations I have in digesting some of it.

[jk]

Re: Citi.....Its going DOWN!

keynes famously compared the markets to a beauty contest, but a beauty contest in which you voted not for the contestant you found most beautiful, but for the one you thought most people would vote for. thus the value of gossip and rumor is in providing [only] small bits of data about how others in the crowd are judging the "beauty" of various assets.

my own attitude towards gold, for example, [which i've explicated before, but am repeating nonetheless] is that it's not really worth much to me, because i'm not attracted to trinkets, but for some reason the crowd thinks that the crowd thinks [sic] it's a good reservoir of value in inflationary times. thus, tautologically, it turns out that it is indeed a good reservoir of value in inflationary times. if i were to start reading a lot of commentary, however, that others viewed it as cynically as i do, i'd start getting worried about holding so much of it.

i want to know what the crowd is thinking, and how that thinking is shifting. rumor and gossip are some of the inputs in that process.

[Jim Nickerson]

Re: Citi.....Its going DOWN!

keynes famously compared the markets to a beauty contest, but a beauty contest in which you voted not for the contestant you found most beautiful, but for the one you thought most people would vote for. thus the value of gossip and rumor is in providing [only] small bits of data about how others in the crowd are judging the "beauty" of various assets.

my own attitude towards gold, for example, [which i've explicated before, but am repeating nonetheless] is that it's not really worth much to me, because i'm not attracted to trinkets, but for some reason the crowd thinks that the crowd thinks [sic] it's a good reservoir of value in inflationary times. thus, tautologically, it turns out that it is indeed a good reservoir of value in inflationary times. if i were to start reading a lot of commentary, however, that others viewed it as cynically as i do, i'd start getting worried about holding so much of it.

i want to know what the crowd is thinking, and how that thinking is shifting. rumor and gossip are some of the inputs in that process.

So, jk, where are you hanging out in order to learn what the crowd is thinking?

I 'hang" with the sentiment surveys, market breadth, and the put/call data.

[metalman]

Re: Citi.....Its going DOWN!

So, jk, where are you hanging out in order to learn what the crowd is thinking?

I 'hang" with the sentiment surveys, market breadth, and the put/call data.

those are useful... like reading all the stats before you bet on a baseball game. a call from a friend on the team who you know and trust who happens to know that the star pitcher is injured.... heck, that doesn't hurt.

[Jim Nickerson]

Re: Citi.....Its going DOWN!

those are useful... like reading all the stats before you bet on a baseball game. a call from a friend on the team who you know and trust who happens to know that the star pitcher is injured.... heck, that doesn't hurt.

metalman, you didn't answer what jk is using with regard to understanding what the crowd is thinking or how it might be shifting its thinking, and we aren't writing about betting on baseball games, we are writing about betting on investments.

[Basil]

Re: Citi.....Its going DOWN!

I was informed by a former Citi exec that the money they borrowed from abroad was at 11.5%. That smacks of utter desperation.
She, however, is of the opinion that they will be bailed out, as the psychological impact of Citi failing would be too much for the markets to bear (pun intended).

[Jim Nickerson]

Re: Citi.....Its going DOWN!

I was informed by a former Citi exec that the money they borrowed from abroad was at 11.5%. That smacks of utter desperation.
She, however, is of the opinion that they will be bailed out, as the psychological impact of Citi failing would be too much for the markets to bear (pun intended).

So based on this rumor you heard, gossip to me, what do you think we should do Monday to exploit this apparent inside information?

Edit: I guess this is related about as much as anything else is here. I was reading a story an hour ago or so about the reversal in the markets today, and one thing mentioned was that Merrill Lynch analyst(s) today downgraded FRE and FNM to sells from holds. Look at the charts on those two pieces of shit, both having fallen over 50% from recent highs, and tell me people in high places on Wall Street know their asses from their elbows. Such astute signals by major brokerage firms appears to me to be giving anything labeled "insider information" a bad name.

[metalman]

Re: Citi.....Its going DOWN!

I was informed by a former Citi exec that the money they borrowed from abroad was at 11.5%. That smacks of utter desperation.
She, however, is of the opinion that they will be bailed out, as the psychological impact of Citi failing would be too much for the markets to bear (pun intended).

no one thought enron could go down, either.

[Basil]

Re: Citi.....Its going DOWN!

I quite agree. But I do think that such a possibility would urge one to exercise caution in how they play this one, if they do so. But I should clarify, this is not rumor—even worse—it is opinion.

[Jim Nickerson]

Re: Citi.....Its going DOWN!

I quite agree. But I do think that such a possibility would urge one to exercise caution in how they play this one, if they do so. But I should clarify, this is not rumor—even worse—it is opinion.

I don't know that an opinion from someone I know, if I were to figure they actually know something, is worse that a rumor.

Whatever, I was pulling your leg to see what else you had to write. I wouldn't play C one way or the other as a single investment, though I am long UYG which is +200 DJ US Financials, and I am sure includes some percentage of C.

[GRG55]

Re: Citi.....Its going DOWN!

So, jk, where are you hanging out in order to learn what the crowd is thinking?

I 'hang" with the sentiment surveys, market breadth, and the put/call data.

Not answering for jk of course.

For me the rumours and "gossip" add context to the "facts".

As you know I am not much of a market technician or chart reader, so I watch some other things to figure out what the crowd is thinking, and more important, to try to figure out what the crowd might be thinking in the not too distant future.

Favourite is to compare what is in the headlines, and what is being talked about around the water cooler, with what is buried half way back in the newspaper & the Economist magazine, and what is "nagging" me in the back of my head. An example, I have been watching the news from Pakistan fairly closely since the Taliban were ousted from Afghanistan. I have thought for quite a long time that what happens there is going to prove pivotal to Middle East political stability, oil, the "next war", nuclear proliferation/terrrorism, and so forth - more so than Iran which has more often dominated the front page headlines. After all, it is Pakistan that is the less cohesive "nation", politically unstable, semi-governable, with violent tribalism, the "Islamic bomb" and scientists all too willing to sell state secrets. The military and security people I talk to here in the Gulf most often don't give out hard facts (they either don't have the facts, or can't disclose them), but one can often glean much from careful listening to the stories and gossip - as long as one never forgets that's what it is.

[touchring]

Re: Citi.....Its going DOWN!

citi going down? But they are saving ambac?

http://bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=2...d2Y&refer=home

Feb. 23 (Bloomberg) -- Ambac Financial Group Inc., the bond insurer facing a crippling credit-rating downgrade, may get $3 billion in new capital as part of a rescue agreement with banks, according to a person with knowledge of the discussions.

Eight banks including Citigroup Inc. and UBS AG formed a group to consider providing financing, a person familiar with the matter said earlier this month

[BiscayneSunrise]

Re: Citi.....Its going DOWN!

I, for one appreciate the tidbits of non technical info.

I can read charts, and the like and make inferences, but I have found that, in the end, I'm no quant. I take the data and add in my gut instinct. As others in this thread have pointed out, the market is a great big psychology machine and any insight into psychology is an advantage. Relying strictly on proven data is at best, a lagging indicator, at worst, the recipe for disaster (LTCM)

Plus, I like the titillation of "insider" information.

Again, read the descriptive differences of Dr. John vs. Fat Tony in "Black Swan" When I get some more time, I will post the appropriate paragraph.