Iran`s oil bourse could topple the dollar

[Sapiens]

http://www.israelenews.com/view.asp?ID=994

So, how important is it that oil continues to be denominated in dollars? Would the United States really wage war to defend the dollar's status as the world's “reserve currency”? The answer to this question could come as early as this week, since the long-awaited Iranian Oil Bourse is scheduled to open between now and February 11.

Today's the day! Let's see if Iran opens the bourse....

[Rajiv]

Re: Iran`s oil bourse could topple the dollar

JOHN DVORAK'S SECOND OPINION
Using the Internet as a weapon
Commentary: Internet interruption in the Middle East looks fishy

BERKELEY, Calif. (MarketWatch) -- Nobody knows what caused the cut cables in the Mediterranean that interrupted Internet service to parts of the Middle East last week, but there are now conspiracy theories galore written by bloggers and pundits.

Some say it will benefit terrorists and Iran somehow. In fact, the cut cables -- originally blamed on ships dragging anchors -- look more like a ploy by some intelligence agency to disrupt Iranian commerce, specifically an emerging oil bourse that the Iranians have been quietly establishing and hoped to roll out fully in the next 60 days.

There has always been talk about disrupting commerce by screwing up the Internet. We've just seen a proof of concept, whether done on purpose or by accident.

This concept seems a little farfetched until you look at the details which were provided to me by one of my readers, Martin Kuplens-Ewart who has been following the story from the outset. He notes: "there is a substantial event that has effectively been killed by the loss of connectivity: the launch of the Iranian Oil Bourse.

"A marketplace for oil, gas, and various petrochemicals, the Iranian Oil Bourse would trade exclusively in non-dollars and probably substantial negative impact to the U.S. economy and financial system. The bourse was scheduled for launch this week (between Feb. 1 and 11. With complete elimination of Internet connectivity to the country, this launch is now impossible and unlikely to be achievable before month's end (given the estimate 10-14 days for repairs to fiber-optic cables)."

He cites various articles expressing the mystery behind the cut cables and describing the bourse and its overall threat to the U.S. economy, as well as how the thing could backfire, ruining the Iranian economy. See Seattle Times article. See World Press article. See Energy Bulletin item.

The second bourse article, written in 2005, discusses the early planning for the bourse and suggests or wonders if someone might take some covert actions against it.
Communication breakdown

In most instances Internet connectivity can be rerouted, and much of the Middle East has already done this. But what makes this situation unique is that the bourse was being established on Kish Island, a free-trade zone set up by the Iranians in hopes of creating a cool tourist destination.

For an example of what they are up to check out the Web site for one of the new hotels here. See link to Dariush Grand Hotel.

There doesn't seem to be an alternate Internet connection to the island other than the cut cables. I attempted to email the three top hotels on the island and all the email bounced. I was also unable to make a telephone call there indicating a large telecommunications failure.

[Chris]

Re: Iran`s oil bourse could topple the dollar

http://www.israelenews.com/view.asp?ID=994



Today's the day! Let's us see if Iran opens the bourse....

I've waited seven years for the opening of this bourse. I think i'll probably have to wait another seven more...

[Slimprofits]

Re: Iran`s oil bourse could topple the dollar

How about that for a new twist? Some of the other articles don't mention the second bourse, so a lot of people are 'going hog wild' about this news.

Iran Opens Its 1st Oil Products Bourse
Associated Press - 02/17/08

Iran established its first oil products bourse Sunday in a free trade zone on the Persian Gulf Island of Kish, the country's oil ministry said.

A statement posted on the ministry's Web site said 100 tons of polyethylene consignment was traded at the market's opening on the island, which houses the offices of about 100 Iranian and foreign oil companies.

Oil and petrochemical products will be traded in Iranian Rials, as well as all other hard currencies, the statement quoted Iranian Oil Minister Gholam Hossein Nozari as saying. About 20 brokers are already active in the market, it said.

"The bourse provides an economic opportunity for Iranians, other countries and foreign customers," Nozari was quoted as saying.
Iran produces more than 20 million tons of petrochemical products per year.

Iran has already registered for another oil bourse, in which it has said it hopes to trade oil in Euros instead of dollars, to reduce any American influence over the Islamic Republic's economy.

A bourse official, Mahdi Karbasian, told the IRNA official news agency that such an oil market would begin operating within the next year.

[Rajiv]

Re: Iran`s oil bourse could topple the dollar

This actually makes good financial sense for Iran. It can do a trial run with petroleum products -- get the bugs out of the system with this smaller market over the next year -- then open the primary oil bourse to trade in crude.

[Slimprofits]

Re: Iran`s oil bourse could topple the dollar

http://www.tehrantimes.com/index_View.asp?code=205640

View Rate : 2685 # News Code : TTime- 205640 Print Date : Saturday, October 17, 2009

TEHRAN -- The Trade Promotion Organization of Iran (TPOI) announced this week that it plans to exclude the U.S. dollar from Iran’s foreign exchange reserves.

In line with this plan, Iran has informed Japan that it should use the yen instead of dollars to pay for the oil it buys from the Islamic Republic.

In addition, Iran has decided to open a bourse for oil and gas transactions in currencies other than the U.S. dollar, especially the euro.

Although the opening of the new bourse has been postponed several times, the plan shows the country’s determination to replace the dollar in its oil and gas transactions.

The TPOI has also announced that since October 2007 Iran has sold 85 percent of its oil exports in currencies other than the U.S. dollar and is determined to sell the remaining 15 percent in other currencies such as the UAE dirham.

During his first term, Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad ordered that the dollar should be replaced by the euro in the transactions of Iran’s currency reserve fund.

[goadam1]

Re: Iran`s oil bourse could topple the dollar

Well you could kill the Iranian High command to remind them who is boss. Just a thought.

Not you directly

SUICIDE bomber yesterday killed seven senior commanders of the elite Revolutionary Guard and at least 22 others in an area of southeastern Iran that has been at the centre of a simmering Sunni insurgency.



The dead included the deputy commander of the guard's ground force, General Nur-Ali Shushtari, as well as the commander for Sistan-Baluchestan province, General Rajab Ali Mohammad-Zadeh, the commander for the town of Iranshahr and the head of the Amir al-Momenin unit.

Three commanders from the province adjacent to Sistan-Baluchestan - Kerman - were also killed. The other dead were guard members or local tribal leaders. Twenty-eight others were wounded.

The commanders were on their way to a meeting with tribal leaders in the Pishin district near the border with Pakistan when an attacker with explosives around his waist blew himself up at 8am (3.30pm AEDT). The explosion occurred at the entrance of a gymnasium where the meeting was to be held.

Top provincial prosecutor Mohammad Marzieh said last night that a militant group from Iran's Sunni Muslim minority called Jundallah, or Soldiers of God, claimed responsibility.

[goadam1]

Re: Iran`s oil bourse could topple the dollar

I mean if you were laying the ground work for an attack on a countries Nuclear ambitions which also threatened your monetary hegemony you just might start attacking their response ability.

Hizballah telecommunications knocked out in another mysterious explosion
DEBKAfile Special report
October 18, 2009, 9:18 PM (GMT+02:00)


Remains of Hizballah's telecommunications network
The mysterious explosion which knocked Hizballah's military telecommunications network out of commission Saturday night, Oct. 17, had evolved by Sunday morning into three Israeli wiretapping devices buried in the hills of Houla in South Lebanon which were discovered and blown up.
DEBKAfile's military sources report that Hizballah and the Lebanese army had got together in the interim on their story, indicating deepening cooperation between them. The story was fabricated to cover up the extent of the damage to Hizballah's military telecommunications network and pay Israel back for exposing the 300 illegal weapons cached in the South Lebanon and housing thousands of different types of missiles - in gross breach of UN Security Council resolution 1701.
The Lebanese army and the UN peacekeeping force were entrusted with keeping Hizballah in line.
UNFIL spokesperson Yasmina Bouziane did not confirm the Hizballah-Lebanese army's account - only that peacekeepers were at the scene. They have not finished investigating an explosion five days ago which destroyed one of the forbidden weapons caches that were hidden behind the villa of Hizballah leader Saeed Nasser.
Our military sources add that Hizballah can no longer deny that a mysterious hand is at work destroying its weapons depots and the logistical infrastructure it has installed in South Lebanon. They believe this hand belongs to the IDF's special operations units. Reluctant to admit the damage to their system, the Shiite terrorist group's chiefs tried to keep its destruction dark. But word soon spread across the country and so Hizballah decided to put out word that the explosion was caused by IDF wiretapping devices buried in the Houla area which Israel had blown up by remote control.
A Lebanese military spokesman said Sunday night that Israeli unmanned aircraft detonated one device Saturday night and a second Sunday morning, while the third was defused by the Lebanese army during the day.
Not everyone in Lebanon bought the story: Some Lebanese media quoted Lebanese officers as attributing the explosion to a "breach" in the Hizballah's telecommunications network in south Lebanon. Two cables of 50 meters were exposed - one for wiretapping, the other for broadcasting, they reported.
To keep the UN peacekeepers guessing, they were not called until all three devices had been blown to bits and were impossible to identify.

[Slimprofits]

Re: Iran`s oil bourse could topple the dollar

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worl...inst-Iran.html

Bush sanctions 'black ops' against Iran

By Tim Shipman in Washington
Published: 12:01AM BST 27 May 2007

However, the CIA is giving arms-length support, supplying money and weapons, to an Iranian militant group, Jundullah, which has conducted raids into Iran from bases in Pakistan.

[FrankL]

Re: Iran`s oil bourse could topple the dollar

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worl...inst-Iran.html

Bush sanctions 'black ops' against Iran

By Tim Shipman in Washington
Published: 12:01AM BST 27 May 2007

However, the CIA is giving arms-length support, supplying money and weapons, to an Iranian militant group, Jundullah, which has conducted raids into Iran from bases in Pakistan.

sounds very similar to what the west has done with Kosovo. I wonder whether Ahmadinejad will fall for this trap this time.

[Prazak]

Re: Iran`s oil bourse could topple the dollar

I don't know if you happened to see the following piece in the Washington Post this past Friday: http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn...101502761.html

Plenty of interesting inferences to be drawn.

[D-Mack]

Re: Iran`s oil bourse could topple the dollar

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worl...inst-Iran.html

Bush sanctions 'black ops' against Iran

By Tim Shipman in Washington
Published: 12:01AM BST 27 May 2007

However, the CIA is giving arms-length support, supplying money and weapons, to an Iranian militant group, Jundullah, which has conducted raids into Iran from bases in Pakistan.

here we go

Iran blames 'satanic' U.S. for suicide attack, vows revenge

By News Agencies

Tags: Israel News, Iran

The Iranian armed forces have accused the United States and Britain of involvement in a suicide bombing that targeted the Islamic Republic's Revolutionary Guard on Sunday, and warned of revenge. The headquarters of the armed forces blamed the bombing on "terrorists" backed by "the Great Satan America and its ally Britain". "Not in the distant future we (Iran) will take revenge ... and Baluchis will clear this region from terrorists and criminals," Fars quoted a statement as saying, referring to the inhabitants of Sistan-Baluchestan province, where the attack took place. Advertisement Both the U.S. and Britain condemned the attack on Sunday and denied any involvement

[goadam1]

Re: Iran`s oil bourse could topple the dollar

I don't know if you happened to see the following piece in the Washington Post this past Friday: http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn...101502761.html

Plenty of interesting inferences to be drawn.

http://original.antiwar.com/justin/2...world-war-iii/
Whose to believe
From antiwar.com

In 2007, just as the Bush administration was hyping the alleged "threat" from Iran’s ostensible nuclear ambitions – and facing renewed pressure from the Israel lobby to go after Tehran – the CIA issued a National Intelligence Estimate that punctured the War Party’s balloon. The NIE, which represents the considered opinion of all 16 U.S. intelligence agencies, averred that we knew with "high confidence" Iran had abandoned its nuclear weapons program in 2003 and not restarted it.

This immediately put the kibosh on the administration’s warlike impulses and deflated the propaganda campaign against Iran. No nukes? No problem – and no U.S. military strike in the final days of the Bush administration, which would have left incoming President Barack Obama with a grim inheritance indeed, and precluded the possibility of peace in the Middle East for many years to come.


Fortunately, thanks to the spooks, it was not to be. Yet Obama, while not stuck fighting a war initiated by his predecessor, nonetheless had passed down to him the same albatross that has ringed the neck of every administration since the early 1960s: the power and influence of the Israel lobby. The Lobby was and is bound and determined to enlist the U.S. in its crusade against Tehran, and under Obama the pressure has been ramped up considerably. Obama himself has played a key role in all this, accusing the Iranians of building nuclear weapons while ignoring the 2007 NIE, which is now undergoing a "rethink," according to reports:

"U.S. spy agencies are considering whether to rewrite a controversial 2007 intelligence report that asserted Tehran halted its efforts to build nuclear weapons in 2003, current and former U.S. intelligence officials say. The intelligence agencies’ rethink comes as pressure is mounting on Capitol Hill, and among U.S. allies, for the Obama administration to redo the 2007 assessment, after a string of recent revelations about Tehran’s nuclear program."

These unspecified "revelations," however, don’t amount to a hill of beans: the Qom facility was revealed by the Iranians, not the U.S., and we have known about it for years. If there were anything to it, you can bet the Bush administration would have come out with it long before now.

Indeed, the only real revelation unveiled by recent events is the fact that the Iranians have been so unexpectedly forthcoming in the first round of negotiations with the U.S., even offering to ship most of their known fissile material abroad to be refined and used for medical purposes. If and when this comes about, it will put what ought to be the final nail in the Lobby’s campaign to drag us into another bloody and prolonged war on Israel’s behalf.

Yet we aren’t dealing with an ordinary lobbying group here, like AARP or the NRA. The Lobby has the power and influence of a foreign government behind it, one that enjoys the unprecedented benefits of a "special relationship" with the U.S. amounting to virtual symbiosis. These guys don’t give up so easily, and why should they? After all, they’ve dictated U.S. foreign policy in the Middle East for many years now, and they intend to continue doing so – no matter the consequences for the U.S. and the rest of the world.

Frantic, the War Party is now launching a preemptive strike against the NIE, making good on the old Bushian strategy of taking the battle to the enemy, which turns out to be the same enemy they successfully faced down in the Bush years: the U.S. intelligence community.

During the run-up to the invasion of Iraq, you’ll recall, dissident elements in the CIA and other intelligence agencies regularly fed the media with reports that contradicted the official administration line on Saddam Hussein’s alleged "weapons of mass destruction" and his purported ties to al-Qaeda. With Dick Cheney and Scooter Libby making regular visits to Langley, looking over the shoulders of analysts as they examined the data, veteran CIA types rebelled. By way of exacting revenge, these rebels were cited as anonymous sources for the contention, widely reported in the media, that the administration was "cooking" the intelligence to suit a preordained decision to go to war.

The Wall Street Journal cites "German, French, and British intelligence agencies" as having "all disputed the conclusions of the … NIE, in recent months, according to European officials briefed on the exchanges." Unmentioned is the central role played by the Israelis, who have fought the hardest to discredit the report. Every few months, we see a headline claiming Israel is about to attack Iran because the mullahs are supposedly on the verge of going nuclear. If Washington had taken any of these overwrought assessments at face value, war with Iran would have commenced several years ago.

Like those millenarian prophets who predict the end of the world on a date certain yet manage to maintain a following no matter how often they turn out to be wrong, our predictors of an Iranian-initiated holocaust in the Middle East will always have their amen corner to keep the faith alive.

The tack likely to be taken by the War Party is that the 2007 NIE was then and this is now. What we have to look forward to is the same internal struggle that preceded the invasion of Iraq, with the pro-war faction collecting "raw intelligence" and refining it into talking points, and the antiwar group leaking contradictory assessments, essentially debunking the phony "intelligence" coming out of the Judy Miller-Ahmed Chalabi lie factory as fast as it was produced.

Batten down the hatches and get ready for a blizzard of "revelations" and "new" intelligence citing evidence of Iran’s continuation of its nuclear weapons program. Already our laptop bombardiers are pointing to the German intelligence agency the BND, which supposedly contests the 2007 NIE in documents released in connection with a German espionage case. The case involves a German-Iranian businessman who was accused of shipping dual-use technology to Iran, a charge rejected by a German lower court partly on the grounds of the NIE: if the Iranians weren’t busily churning out nukes, then the technology transfers were legal, or, at least, not espionage. The BND responded by releasing documents that purport to show the opposite – except they don’t. As Dr. Oliver Meier, the international representative and correspondent of the Arms Control Association, put it at arms control analyst Paul Kerr’s blog:

"In fact, the Court found only that, based on a May 2008 BND report, ‘it is sufficiently likely’ that Iran was working on nuclear weapons in 2007 to reopen the case. The lower court in Frankfurt had described the same BND report as ‘extremely vague’. … The Federal Court came to a different conclusion, saying that the BND made a ‘plausible case’ that Iran continued working on nuclear weapons. But the judges made it explicitly clear that it was not their job to arrive at a substantive judgment about whether Iran had actually been working on nuclear weapons in 2007."

We don’t get this reportorial depth in ordinary news accounts, only the bare assertion that the BND is contesting the NIE and that’s it. As to the basis of their disagreement, we are left in the dark, but the devil, as they say, is in the details. What the War Party is counting on is the blurring of specifics so that a general – and false – impression is left, one that evokes the specter of a nuclear-armed Iran. It is then left to the politicians to pick up the ball and run with it, as Rep. Jane Harman is doing:

“‘We need a much better intelligence picture of Iran,’ said California Rep. Jane Harman, who chairs the intelligence subcommittee on the House Homeland Security Committee and was the top Democrat on the House intelligence panel. Rep. Harman said intelligence officials should assume that the latest revelation of a secret enrichment facility may not be the only one, until they can disprove that assumption."

The last time we heard from Rep. Harman, she was siccing pro-Israel billionaire Haim Saban on Nancy Pelosi and having him threaten to cut off campaign funding if Harman wasn’t appointed chair of the House Intelligence Committee. This was right before the public exposure of her conversation with an Israeli agent in which she promised to intercede on behalf of accused Israeli spies Steve Rosen and Keith Weissman. Now she’s insisting Iran must prove it isn’t guilty – a unique legal theory of international law that seemingly ignores the logical impossibility of proving a negative.

One aspect of the debate over the war in Afghanistan that has been largely neglected is what role rising agitation against Iran plays in the administration’s evolving strategy. Obama ran on a platform of fighting the "right war," i.e., on the "Af-Pak" front. Yet political considerations may be dictating a change of course, as Israel turns up the volume against Tehran and Obama faces increasing pressure from our NATO allies to get tough with Iran.

You’ll recall that right after 9/11 the neocons wanted to ignore the Afghans and march straight to Baghdad. They had to wait a few years, but they got their wish in the end. Now a new administration is faced with a similar choice of targets, and it’s not yet clear which way Obama will go.

The 2007 NIE delivered a body blow to the War Party from which it is only now beginning to recover. However, the fight to avert World War III – surely the result of an attack on Iran – is very far from over. The election of Barack Obama, and the vanquishing of the more explicit wing of the War Party, just means the battle will be fought on different terrain. Already Obama is facing challenges from within his own party, as well as the neocon Right, to prove his "toughness." Whether he chooses the proving ground of Afghanistan to establish his bona fides as commander in chief or opts to keep his powder dry until it’s time to go after Iran is a toss-up, at the moment. What we can count on, however, is that the groundwork for a confrontation with Iran has already been laid.

[Slimprofits]

Re: Iran`s oil bourse could topple the dollar

just reminders:

http://www.newyorker.com/reporting/2...7fa_fact_hersh

A Democratic senator told me that, late last year, in an off-the-record lunch meeting, Secretary of Defense Gates met with the Democratic caucus in the Senate. (Such meetings are held regularly.) Gates warned of the consequences if the Bush Administration staged a preëmptive strike on Iran, saying, as the senator recalled, “We’ll create generations of jihadists, and our grandchildren will be battling our enemies here in America.” Gates’s comments stunned the Democrats at the lunch, and another senator asked whether Gates was speaking for Bush and Vice-President Dick Cheney. Gates’s answer, the senator told me, was “Let’s just say that I’m here speaking for myself.” (A spokesman for Gates confirmed that he discussed the consequences of a strike at the meeting, but would not address what he said, other than to dispute the senator’s characterization.)

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/comment/p...inst-Iran.html

There are two ways of interpreting this week's warning by America's top military officer, Admiral Mike Mullen, that opening a new front in the Middle East by launching air strikes against Iran's nuclear facilities would be "extremely stressful".

Either the United States, with the help of its favoured Middle Eastern proxy, Israel, is already preparing to take out Iran's main nuclear facilities, and is simply preparing public opinion for the likely consequences of such action.

Or America's top brass, who already have their work cut out prosecuting two major military campaigns in Iraq and Afghanistan, are trying to pre-empt any thoughts President George W. Bush, the nation's commander-in-chief, might have about ordering his armed forces into action against the mullahs.
Senior military officers, whether in Britain or America, specialise in the art of understatement, and what Mr Mullen means by "extremely stressful" is what most laymen would take to be "catastrophic".

[ASH]

Re: Iran`s oil bourse could topple the dollar

just reminders:

It strikes me that given what was going on with the economy at the close of the Bush administration, a strike on Iran would have been "stressful" for other reasons as well.