Global Warming or Global Cooling?

[Guest]

Re: Global Warming or Global Cooling?

Thank you Verrocchio. I was under the impression I had trod on your toes, and I am relieved it's not the case.

BTW - I went to the Metalman's Finishing School and Academy for Good Drawing Room Manners - (they have even trained top flight Ambassadors and specialize in "How to Talk Genteelly to Deflationistas - a very tough program).

[Verrocchio]

Re: Global Warming or Global Cooling?

I don't think earth can accommodate 9B upwardly mobile humans and maintain the same familiar environment we're accustomed to. It will likely serve us well to be prepared for change, be it warming, cooling or simply unpredictable weather.

...and unpredictable central bankers!

Global climate change may prove to be a no more than an inconvenience to those of us who are prepared. The more serious issues may be virus and war related. Also don't forget Bill Joy has famously predicted computer systems will have hardware parity with the human brain by 2020 and software parity by 2040. Assistants or competition? Only our grandchildren will know for sure.

Fascinating topic!

The only thing we know for sure about change is that it's happening at a more rapid rate and not all of it will be appreciated by most of us. I try to take nothing for granted and teach this point of view to my children.

The kids will be living in more of the future than we will. How best to prepare them is surely one of the more urgent questions that we face.

[Verrocchio]

Manmade climate change "a drop in the bucket?"

Nearly four months have gone by since this thread began and still no sunspots. A greater number of scientists express concern in the article below.
The Sunspot Enigma: The Sun is “Dead”—What Does it Mean for Earth?


Dark spots, some as large as 50,000 miles in diameter, typically move across the surface of the sun, contracting and expanding as they go. These strange and powerful phenomena are known as sunspots, but now they are all gone. Not even solar physicists know why it’s happening and what this odd solar silence might be indicating for our future. Although periods of inactivity are normal for the sun, this current period has gone on much longer than usual and scientists are starting to worry—at least a little bit.

Sorokhtin: "Manmade climate change "a drop in the bucket" compared to the fierce and abrupt cold that can potentially be brought on by inactive solar phases."

[c1ue]

Re: Global Warming or Global Cooling?

Each person exhaling 5-8 litres of Co2 per minute.

Really? I didn't know I could even hold 5-8 litres of air, much less CO2.

[GRG55]

Re: Manmade climate change "a drop in the bucket?"

Nearly four months have gone by since this thread began and still no sunspots. A greater number of scientists express concern in the article below.
The Sunspot Enigma: The Sun is “Dead”—What Does it Mean for Earth?


Dark spots, some as large as 50,000 miles in diameter, typically move across the surface of the sun, contracting and expanding as they go. These strange and powerful phenomena are known as sunspots, but now they are all gone. Not even solar physicists know why it’s happening and what this odd solar silence might be indicating for our future. Although periods of inactivity are normal for the sun, this current period has gone on much longer than usual and scientists are starting to worry—at least a little bit.

Sorokhtin: "Manmade climate change "a drop in the bucket" compared to the fierce and abrupt cold that can potentially be brought on by inactive solar phases."

Something is different. Where I am we just went through the coldest average May in more than 30 years. It's been raining relentlessly; we are under the second flood watch of the spring, and the local town is on a boil water order because the treatment plant cannot keep up with all the crap in the water. Out on the we[s]t coast (Vancouver, Canada) a friend of mine who is a ferociously avid gardener told me her flowers are 5 weeks behind a typical year because of the cold, wet weather.

And it sure seems the Canadian prairie and US Mid-west crop yields are going to decline because planting is either late, or may not happen at all in some regions because the fields are too wet to work them.

The forecasts for summer are for hot, dry weather. We'll see...:cool:

Corn Rises to Fifth Record as Projected Crop Loss Boosts Prices

By Jeff Wilson
June 11 (Bloomberg) -- Corn rose the most allowed by the Chicago Board of Trade, reaching a fifth straight record, after the government cut its U.S. crop forecast 3.2 percent from a month earlier because rain delayed planting and flooded fields.

Production will fall 10 percent to 11.735 billion bushels from last year's crop of 13.074 billion, the U.S. Department of Agriculture said yesterday. Inventories on Aug. 31, 2009, were forecast to be 673 million bushels, the lowest since 1996 and down 53 percent from 1.433 billion forecast this year. The USDA predicts that feed demand will fall 16 percent next year.

``The crop is still shrinking'' because of acres lost to flooding and yield losses from late planting, said Brian Hoops, president of Midwest Market Solutions in Yankton, South Dakota. ``The market's job now is to quickly rise to shut off demand for livestock feed and ethanol production.'' ...

...More than 4 million acres of corn were left to be planted as of June 1, before Midwest fields received up to 12 inches (30 centimeters) of rain in the past week. Some fields in Iowa, the biggest corn-producing state, may receive as much as 6 inches of rain in the next 24 hours, with the remainder of the Midwest getting up to 2 inches of rain during the next five days, said Mike Tannura, a meteorologist for T-Storm Weather in Chicago...
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?p...d=aitpwJF3S7cc

[Verrocchio]

Re: Manmade climate change "a drop in the bucket?"

Something is different. Where I am we just went through the coldest average May in more than 30 years. It's been raining relentlessly; we are under the second flood watch of the spring, and the local town is on a boil water order because the treatment plant cannot keep up with all the crap in the water. Out on the we[s]t coast (Vancouver, Canada) a friend of mine who is a ferociously avid gardener told me her flowers are 5 weeks behind a typical year because of the cold, wet weather.

And it sure seems the Canadian prairie and US Mid-west crop yields are going to decline because planting is either late, or may not happen at all in some regions because the fields are too wet to work them.

The forecasts for summer are for hot, dry weather. We'll see...:cool:

Corn Rises to Fifth Record as Projected Crop Loss Boosts Prices

By Jeff Wilson
June 11 (Bloomberg) -- Corn rose the most allowed by the Chicago Board of Trade, reaching a fifth straight record, after the government cut its U.S. crop forecast 3.2 percent from a month earlier because rain delayed planting and flooded fields.

Production will fall 10 percent to 11.735 billion bushels from last year's crop of 13.074 billion, the U.S. Department of Agriculture said yesterday. Inventories on Aug. 31, 2009, were forecast to be 673 million bushels, the lowest since 1996 and down 53 percent from 1.433 billion forecast this year. The USDA predicts that feed demand will fall 16 percent next year.

``The crop is still shrinking'' because of acres lost to flooding and yield losses from late planting, said Brian Hoops, president of Midwest Market Solutions in Yankton, South Dakota. ``The market's job now is to quickly rise to shut off demand for livestock feed and ethanol production.'' ...

...More than 4 million acres of corn were left to be planted as of June 1, before Midwest fields received up to 12 inches (30 centimeters) of rain in the past week. Some fields in Iowa, the biggest corn-producing state, may receive as much as 6 inches of rain in the next 24 hours, with the remainder of the Midwest getting up to 2 inches of rain during the next five days, said Mike Tannura, a meteorologist for T-Storm Weather in Chicago...
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?p...d=aitpwJF3S7cc

Good info, GRG55. I didn't know about the precipitation on the we(s)t coast.

There are farmers in the Midwest who were ready to plant corn, but the rain has kept them from taking their big machinery out of the shed so far. Doesn't look good for global food stocks in the coming year.

From the global warming perspective, this unusually wet, cold weather is explained as increased volatility, a consequence of massive climate shifts. Until the sun spots begin to reappear, the global cooling thesis stands as an alternative explanation.

[Verrocchio]

Re: Manmade climate change "a drop in the bucket?"

There are farmers in the Midwest who were ready to plant corn, but the rain has kept them from taking their big machinery out of the shed so far. Doesn't look good for global food stocks in the coming year.

Corn jumps to record for 6th day on Midwest floods
Thursday June 12, 5:19 pm ET
Corn surges to record for 6th day as Midwest rains flood more crops; crude up slightly NEW YORK (AP) -- Corn prices climbed further into record territory Thursday after more rain doused the Midwest, leaving flooded corn crops deeper underwater and threatening livestock owners who depend on the grain to feed their herds.

[Verrocchio]

Re: Manmade climate change "a drop in the bucket?"

Corn jumps to record for 6th day on Midwest floods
Thursday June 12, 5:19 pm ET
Corn surges to record for 6th day as Midwest rains flood more crops; crude up slightly NEW YORK (AP) -- Corn prices climbed further into record territory Thursday after more rain doused the Midwest, leaving flooded corn crops deeper underwater and threatening livestock owners who depend on the grain to feed their herds.

University of Illinois Crop Scientist: Planting After June 20 May Cause Yields to Shrink by Half

Date Posted: Jun. 10, 2008

CHAMPAIGN, IL—A costly deadline looms for many growers in the Midwest, as every day of waiting for the weather to cooperate to plant corn and soybeans reduces potential yields. Research indicates that Illinois growers who plant corn or soybeans near the end of June can expect a 50 percent reduction in crop yield, according to a University of Illinois agriculture expert.

[Verrocchio]

Re: Manmade climate change "a drop in the bucket?"

Still no action on the sun's surface, as noted below...


Sun Makes History: First Spotless Month in a Century
Drop in solar activity has potential effect for climate on earth.
September 1, 2008 8:11 AM

The sun has reached a milestone not seen for nearly 100 years: an entire month has passed without a single visible sunspot being noted.
The event is significant as many climatologists now believe solar magnetic activity – which determines the number of sunspots -- is an influencing factor for climate on earth.
According to data from Mount Wilson Observatory, UCLA, more than an entire month has passed without a spot. The last time such an event occurred was June of 1913. Sunspot data has been collected since 1749.



-------------------------------------------
Anytime now, Sol!

[GRG55]

Re: Manmade climate change "a drop in the bucket?"

Still no action on the sun's surface, as noted below...


Sun Makes History: First Spotless Month in a Century
Drop in solar activity has potential effect for climate on earth.
September 1, 2008 8:11 AM

The sun has reached a milestone not seen for nearly 100 years: an entire month has passed without a single visible sunspot being noted.
The event is significant as many climatologists now believe solar magnetic activity – which determines the number of sunspots -- is an influencing factor for climate on earth.
According to data from Mount Wilson Observatory, UCLA, more than an entire month has passed without a spot. The last time such an event occurred was June of 1913. Sunspot data has been collected since 1749.



-------------------------------------------
Anytime now, Sol!

Well, well. Where I am (eastern slopes of the Rocky Mountains) August temperatures were apparently above average. Two weeks ago the temp was 33 degrees C. Yesterday it snowed.

Global warming? What global warming???

[tastymannatees]

Re: Global Warming or Global Cooling?

Boy this is an easy topic to demagogue. Just sow a little confusion and away we go.

There is no credible peer-reviewed scientifically-sound research supporting the position that the globe is not warming, or that said warming is not in significant part due to human activity.

There are many unknowns with regard to these facts, including what the outcomes will be, and when. But the basic facts themselves are not in dispute among serious scientists.

To believe otherwise is to believe that virtually every single scientist in the field that's willing to submit to usual research standards, and have their work reviewed by their peers is engaged in a conspiracy of unprecedented scope.

It's also to believe that a handful of mercenaries and cranks, typically working in isolation, are somehow more credible than the 99% of scientists who are willing to adhere to the standards described above.

30,000 Scientists Sign Petition on Global Warming

http://www.heartland.org/Article.cfm?artId=23387

Global Warming IMO is just one of those quirky social cascades and will fade back into the nonsense from which it was spawned like global cooling everybody was screaming about in the 70's

[metalman]

Re: Global Warming or Global Cooling?

30,000 Scientists Sign Petition on Global Warming

http://www.heartland.org/Article.cfm?artId=23387

Global Warming IMO is just one of those quirky social cascades and will fade back into the nonsense from which it was spawned like global cooling everybody was screaming about in the 70's

there's the chance of really rapid and extreme global warming... i'm against it and plan to vote for any politicians who promise to prevent it... :eek:



seriously, global warming is real and high oil prices are the answer.

[tastymannatees]

Re: Global Warming or Global Cooling?

there's the chance of really rapid and extreme global warming... i'm against it and plan to vote for any politicians who promise to prevent it... :eek:



seriously, global warming is real and high oil prices are the answer.

I firmly believe this a social cascade like the feeding frenzy with the housing bubble. The Media reports with near hysteria the Arctic ICE Sheet is gone and the polar bears are drowning but fails to make note that the Antarctic is growing at a record pace.

http://www.worldclimatereport.com/in...fall-increase/

Along with 30,000 scientists I could post a hundred articles that counter the warming scenario. Mountain Glaciers retreating in the northern hemisphere? well they are growing at record rates in the southern hemisphere.

The atmosphere on Mars consists of 95% carbon dioxide and things do not seem so hot there. Ice core samples going back hundreds of thousands of years show CO2 increases as a trailing event when the earth is cooling rather than a leading event. Maybe the simple old carbon cycle- Plants die off when things get cold? The fact that the earth has been cooling the last ten years could be a long term trend?

Nobody on this forum or any other can tell me what DJIA will be in six months, 12 months or 5 years. Same thing with the weather Take any climate model and plug in data from a hundred years ago and it will not predict the last hundred years of temperature.

This is why I am a skeptic and view it as cocktail party happy talk. I am like the recent comments from the Indian PM. about GW. Where going green just will not fly with your typical peasant, He needs power, lights etc. cheap and can not pay the green pricing model and eat.

I am the new American peasant. When things go down there will be no money for this silly stuff IMHO, I am firing up my coal stove ($200 to heat my house for the year) and cracking the windows to let out the excess heat and walking around the house in bare feet and tee shirts when it's 10 degrees outside. Everybody has their own climate/economic reality this is mine.

[jimmygu3]

Re: Global Warming or Global Cooling?

there's the chance of really rapid and extreme global warming... i'm against it and plan to vote for any politicians who promise to prevent it... :eek:



seriously, global warming is real and high oil prices are the answer.

No worries- this ragtag group of oil riggers will land on the asteroid, drill a hole in it and plant a nuclear bomb, causing harmless pebbles to rain down on Earth.

[ocelotl]

Re: Manmade climate change "a drop in the bucket?"

Still no action on the sun's surface, as noted below...


Sun Makes History: First Spotless Month in a Century
Drop in solar activity has potential effect for climate on earth.
September 1, 2008 8:11 AM

The sun has reached a milestone not seen for nearly 100 years: an entire month has passed without a single visible sunspot being noted.
The event is significant as many climatologists now believe solar magnetic activity – which determines the number of sunspots -- is an influencing factor for climate on earth.
According to data from Mount Wilson Observatory, UCLA, more than an entire month has passed without a spot. The last time such an event occurred was June of 1913. Sunspot data has been collected since 1749.



-------------------------------------------
Anytime now, Sol!

Let's keep an eye on SOHO site for this...