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  • Expect Fed to lower Dow to 8,000

    Expect Fed to lower Dow to 8,000

    Posted: February 05, 2008
    10:11 pm Eastern


    Consumers should expect a deep recession, triggered by the "stealth methodology" of the Federal Reserve to "depress" the market even while lowering interest rates in an ostensible effort to stimulate economic growth, an economic analyst is charging.

    "The Federal Reserve is directly involved in manipulating the stock market," said economic analyst Mike Bolser in a telephone interview with WND yesterday.

    The New York Stock Exchange finished the day down 108.03 points, closing at 12,635.16, much as Bolser predicted, despite recent emergency Fed rate cuts of 1.25 percentage points aimed at stimulating the economy.

    "Fed wants the Dow Jones Industrial Average and other financial indicators to descend in a managed way," Bolser said. "The Fed wants to drive the DJIA toward the 8,000 level, or below, in order to help create a deep recession which will have the effect of slowing consumption across the board, and dampening the otherwise harmful effects of inflation.

    "A falling DOW is only one element of the recession effects of the excessive Fed-created housing and credit creation, whose bubbles are now bursting," he added.

    "Without this recession, we would be on quick trip to hyper-inflation," Bolser, the author of an internationally followed newsletter published in conjunction with his InterventionalAnalysis.com website, said, "and the Fed wants to prevent this."

    In his twice-daily subscription newsletter, Bolser has devised a quantitative methodology for utilizing Federal Reserve repurchase agreements to predict upward and downward movements of the DJIA, measured on a 30-day moving average.
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    "Ultimately, the government is in the business of inflating the dollar," Bolser said, "so the Fed is trying to engineer a recession, in order to cushion the pernicious effects of its own inflation."

    "In my view, the government intentionally desires a deep recession not unlike that of the 1930s," he continued. "The Fed, however, dissembles, attempting to display the opposite impression with its rate cuts."

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    "With this strategy, the Fed hopes we won't experience the extreme 'stag-flation' we had in the late-1970s," he argues. "The Fed hopes to induce a recession to manage downward stock prices and commodity prices, including oil, gold, copper, and lumber, as well as the overall consumer demand for retail goods."

    "Stag-flation" is an unusual economic situation combined when economic stagnation is combined with inflation, much as the economy is currently experiencing, such that economists fear we are entering a recession while food and energy prices continue to rise sharply.

  • #2
    Re: Expect Fed to lower Dow to 8,000

    Complete poppycock in my opinion.

    Comment


    • #3
      Re: Expect Fed to lower Dow to 8,000

      Tulpen - We don't know if Rajiv subscribes to the article's theory or not. Rajiv reads widely and is "all over the map" on issues, such that it's hard to ever guess where his position is. I also wondered if he subscribed to this view personally.

      I could imagine a lot more fear in the FED than this article credits or indeed imagines, that once any attempt to "manage the markets down" got underway, they'd lose control of the thing. Therefore any initiative to "manage the markets down" would be a very stark break from the past 20-40 years of the FED's standing practice, which has invariably been to "manage the markets up".

      Among many other considerations, it would require an extraordinary degree of unanimity among the FED governors to sanction such a "risky" course. I didn't buy it either.

      Comment


      • #4
        Re: Expect Fed to lower Dow to 8,000

        Originally posted by Lukester View Post
        Tulpen - We don't know if Rajiv subscribes to the article's theory or not. Rajiv reads widely and is "all over the map" on issues, such that it's hard to ever guess where his position is. I also wondered if he subscribed to this view personally.
        I suppose I was not clear but I was merely commenting on the article not in anyway on Rajiv's view.

        Comment


        • #5
          Re: Expect Fed to lower Dow to 8,000

          I personally do not think that the FED has anywhere near the control on the stock markets that is implied in this newsletter -- I just thought that this was an interesting methodology to divine the future of the Dow. I have not followed Bolser - and the accuracy of his previous gleanings.

          But the Fed trying to bring the market down in an orderly fashion is not out of the realm of reality -- if indeed, the credit crunch dominos are stacked the way many observers of the financial world are seeing, and the losses faced by financial institutions as staggering as has been implied --- the market would go down -- and normally the way investor sentiment plays out, it would go down in a sudden and disasterous manner -- this is the outcome that needs to be avoided at all cost -- and this is what I believe the institutional players are trying to do -- unwinding the credit mess in a semi-orderly manner.

          Comment


          • #6
            Re: Expect Fed to lower Dow to 8,000

            Originally posted by Rajiv View Post
            I personally do not think that the FED has anywhere near the control on the stock markets that is implied in this newsletter -- I just thought that this was an interesting methodology to divine the future of the Dow. I have not followed Bolser - and the accuracy of his previous gleanings.

            But the Fed trying to bring the market down in an orderly fashion is not out of the realm of reality -- if indeed, the credit crunch dominos are stacked the way many observers of the financial world are seeing, and the losses faced by financial institutions as staggering as has been implied --- the market would go down -- and normally the way investor sentiment plays out, it would go down in a sudden and disasterous manner -- this is the outcome that needs to be avoided at all cost -- and this is what I believe the institutional players are trying to do -- unwinding the credit mess in a semi-orderly manner.

            In my view, the government intentionally desires a deep recession not unlike that of the 1930s," he continued. "The Fed, however, dissembles, attempting to display the opposite impression with its rate cuts."

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            "With this strategy, the Fed hopes we won't experience the extreme 'stag-flation' we had in the late-1970s," he argues.
            So he's saying is they'd rather have the 30's than the 70's? :rolleyes: That's just stupid.

            (Although another Great Depression might just be worth it if it meant we could avoid Disco.)

            Comment


            • #7
              Re: Expect Fed to lower Dow to 8,000

              Originally posted by Rajiv View Post
              I personally do not think that the FED has anywhere near the control on the stock markets that is implied in this newsletter -- I just thought that this was an interesting methodology to divine the future of the Dow. I have not followed Bolser - and the accuracy of his previous gleanings.

              But the Fed trying to bring the market down in an orderly fashion is not out of the realm of reality -- if indeed, the credit crunch dominos are stacked the way many observers of the financial world are seeing, and the losses faced by financial institutions as staggering as has been implied --- the market would go down -- and normally the way investor sentiment plays out, it would go down in a sudden and disasterous manner -- this is the outcome that needs to be avoided at all cost -- and this is what I believe the institutional players are trying to do -- unwinding the credit mess in a semi-orderly manner.
              .

              Are we in danger of ascribing to the Fed powers (magical powers? :p) that are waaaay beyond its actual influence and ability to control events?

              Comment


              • #8
                Re: Expect Fed to lower Dow to 8,000

                Originally posted by GRG55 View Post
                .

                Are we in danger of ascribing to the Fed powers (magical powers? :p) that are waaaay beyond its actual influence and ability to control events?
                Absolutely! But the Fed can and does have an impact on the behavior of the market -- both in terms of investor psychology, and of providing liquidity to institutions that can be used - and is used - to influence market events.

                Comment


                • #9
                  Re: Expect Fed to lower Dow to 8,000

                  Originally posted by Rajiv View Post
                  Absolutely! But the Fed can and does have an impact on the behavior of the market -- both in terms of investor psychology, and of providing liquidity to institutions that can be used - and is used - to influence market events.
                  No doubt. But the effectiveness of "investor psychology" appears to vary greatly over time. During much of the reign of the omnipotent Greenspan, the prevailing and virtually invariable attitude of investors could perhaps be summed up in two words - "Greenspan Put".

                  Could it be that we are now beyond "Peak Confidence" in the Fed, with detectable signs that its efforts are now less effective than we have come to expect lo these past two decades?

                  Comment

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