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Options for Responding to Short-Term EconomicWeakness

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  • Options for Responding to Short-Term EconomicWeakness

    Options for Responding to Short-Term EconomicWeakness
    http://www.cbo.gov/ftpdocs/89xx/doc8...n_Stimulus.pdf

    The economy has recently been buffeted by several interlinked shocks, and the risk of recession is significantly elevated compared with what it is during normal economic conditions.

    In response to a request from the Chairmen of the House and Senate Budget Committees, theCongressional Budget Office (CBO) has examined the potential role of fiscal policy efforts to expand aggregate demand in the current economic situation and the efficacy of various policy options to do so. This paper also examines options for dealing with the crisis in the home mortgage market, which has contributed to the overall economic weakness.

    The paper updates and expands upon a January 2002 CBO analysis of various tax options for stimulating the economy (see Economic Stimulus: Evaluating Proposed Changes in Tax Policy).

    The paper was written by Robert Dennis, Douglas Hamilton, Kim Kowalewski, John Peterson, and Thomas Woodward. Christi Hawley Anthony, Kim Cawley, Molly Dahl, Kathleen FitzGerald, Theresa Gullo, Jonathan Huntley, Mark Lasky, Leo Lex, Angelo Mascaro, Susanne Mehlman, Lyle Nelson, Ben Page, Marvin Phaup, Frank Sammartino, Ralph Smith, David Torregrosa, Adam Weber, and Steve Weinberg gave considerable assistance and commented on early drafts. Sherry Snyder edited the paper, and John Skeen proofread it. Maureen Costantino prepared the paper for publication. Lenny Skutnik printed the initial copies, and Simone Thomas produced the electronic version for CBO’s Web site (www.cbo.gov).


    Peter R. Orszag
    Director
    January 2008

    35 page .pdf from the CBO on the bailout, ahem, "stimulus" package... FRED, will like this on page 26, "Allow State and Local Governments to Issue Tax-Exempt
    Bonds for Refinancing."

  • #2
    Re: Options for Responding to Short-Term EconomicWeakness

    Take a look at foot note 34:

    The problems in the subprime mortgage market have spilled over into the broader financial markets. The use of new and complex investments to fund subprime lending, such as collateralized debt obligations, has made it difficult for participants in financial markets to identify the magnitude of the exposure of other participants to subprime mortgage losses. Financial institutions, not knowing the exposure of other financial institutions to subprime losses, are reluctant to lend to each other, reducing the liquidity of the interbank market. Financial institutions also have pulled back from all risky assets, reducing the availability of credit and raising the price of risky lending from its unusually low level of recent years.
    Good reading, very interesting stuff from those CBO guys.

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    • #3
      Re: Options for Responding to Short-Term EconomicWeakness

      By the way, this is a must read report.

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      • #4
        Re: Options for Responding to Short-Term EconomicWeakness

        Originally posted by Sapiens View Post
        Options for Responding to Short-Term EconomicWeakness
        http://www.cbo.gov/ftpdocs/89xx/doc8...n_Stimulus.pdf




        35 page .pdf from the CBO on the bailout, ahem, "stimulus" package... FRED, will like this on page 26, "Allow State and Local Governments to Issue Tax-Exempt
        Bonds for Refinancing."
        Would this be a reason to purchase existing or start new bond insurer companies?

        http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?p...hIU&refer=news
        Jan. 25 (Bloomberg)
        Ross may start a new bond insurer, the Financial Times reported on its Web site today. Fort Worth, Texas-based TPG Inc., the U.S. buyout fund formerly known as Texas Pacific Group, also may start a guarantor, following billionaire investor Warren Buffett, who set up a company last month.

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