short term prediction time

[jk]

contest for bragging rights only:
1. does the fed cut in the morning?
2. if so, by how much?
3. what does the market do in the first hour after the announcement? [if any]
4. how does the market close?

my guesses.
1. yes,
2. 50 bps,
3. is tricky since the dow futures are currently down about 500, at roughly 11600, so let's say that on the cut the dow rises to 11950 [that's right, still down 150 from friday's close]
4. tomorrow's close- 11600. [i can't resist the bearish call]

[GRG55]

Re: short term prediction time

contest for bragging rights only:
1. does the fed cut in the morning?
2. if so, by how much?
3. what does the market do in the first hour after the announcement? [if any]
4. how does the market close?

my guesses.
1. yes,
2. 50 bps,
3. is tricky since the dow futures are currently down about 500, at roughly 11600, so let's say that on the cut the dow rises to 11950 [that's right, still down 150 from friday's close]
4. tomorrow's close- 11600. [i can't resist the bearish call]

1. No cut tomorrow
2. N/A
3. N/A (I bet the futures look much better by the market open tomorrow)
4. The market opens lower, ends the day higher, near 12,180.

Repeat after Ben and Hank..."There's no PPT, there's no PPT, there's no..."

(You can't make a silk purse out of a sows ear without heavy incantation. And a lot of behind the scenes maneuvering)

CLARIFICATION EDIT: In 1 above I mean that there will be no cut in the Fed Funds Rate tomorrow (I assumed that is what you meant jk). I have no idea what else those jokers in Washington might do.

[Gordo]

Re: short term prediction time

1. No cut tomorrow
2. N/A
3. N/A (I bet the futures look much better by the market open tomorrow)
4. The market opens lower, ends the day higher, near 12,180.

Repeat after Ben and Hank..."There's no PPT, there's no PPT, there's no..."

(You can't make a silk purse out of a sows ear without heavy incantation. And a lot of behind the scenes maneuvering)

Hope you're right, Grg55, but I'll take your bet. The Financial Times does not use the work "Panic" in a headline, unless they know something. Mini-crash tomorrow.

[WDCRob]

Re: short term prediction time

Anyone willing to make a prediction on the carnage if the Fed does NOT cut tomorrow?

ETA: oops - I see GRG has done just that.

[GRG55]

Re: short term prediction time

Anyone willing to make a prediction on the carnage if the Fed does NOT cut tomorrow?

ETA: oops - I see GRG has done just that.

I see you and Gordo declined to put your answers to jk's 1 through 4 out there?

[WDCRob]

Re: short term prediction time

I started to do, but then was pretty close to JK and figured there wasn't much point in echoing him. Not exactly like my opinion validates JKs.

[Gordo]

Re: short term prediction time

I see you and Gordo declined to put your answers to jk's 1 through 4 out there?

Fair enough, GRG55.

contest for bragging rights only:
1. does the fed cut in the morning? NO
2. if so, by how much?NA
3. what does the market do in the first hour after the announcement? [if any] Down 500
4. how does the market close? Down 1000 (Got to be at least a 1000 to constitute a "panic" IMHO.)

[Jim Nickerson]

Re: short term prediction time

contest for bragging rights only:
1. does the fed cut in the morning?
2. if so, by how much?
3. what does the market do in the first hour after the announcement? [if any]
4. how does the market close?

my guesses.
1. yes,
2. 50 bps,
3. is tricky since the dow futures are currently down about 500, at roughly 11600, so let's say that on the cut the dow rises to 11950 [that's right, still down 150 from friday's close]
4. tomorrow's close- 11600. [i can't resist the bearish call]

1. & 2. Fed'll cut 0.5%
3. goes up for 2-3 hours and then down for rest of day.
4. Ends up 6% off Fridays close

DJI 11,373
NasDAQ 2200
SPX 1246
WLSH 5K 12510
RUT 633

[blazespinnaker]

Re: short term prediction time

Apparently McCulley at Pimco is calling for a 50bps tomorrow.

[zoog]

Re: short term prediction time

contest for bragging rights only:
1. does the fed cut in the morning?
2. if so, by how much?
3. what does the market do in the first hour after the announcement? [if any]
4. how does the market close?

my guesses.
1. yes,
2. 50 bps,
3. is tricky since the dow futures are currently down about 500, at roughly 11600, so let's say that on the cut the dow rises to 11950 [that's right, still down 150 from friday's close]
4. tomorrow's close- 11600. [i can't resist the bearish call]

I say they don't cut tomorrow, the Dow drops about 5%, then the PPT steps in late in the day and "a tremendous short-covering and bargain-hunting rally" (as the financial press will spin it) brings the end-of-day loss back up to around -1%.

[blazespinnaker]

Re: short term prediction time

contest for bragging rights only:
1. does the fed cut in the morning?
2. if so, by how much?
3. what does the market do in the first hour after the announcement? [if any]
4. how does the market close?

my guesses.
1. yes,
2. 50 bps,
3. is tricky since the dow futures are currently down about 500, at roughly 11600, so let's say that on the cut the dow rises to 11950 [that's right, still down 150 from friday's close]
4. tomorrow's close- 11600. [i can't resist the bearish call]

I think we can now assume there will be a cut tomorrow.


The question is .. how much? 50 or 75?

And the question is, what will this do to the dollar? I think that is the most important thing. If the dollar drops 5%, then the cut will be useless. Won't mean a damn thing.

[c1ue]

Re: short term prediction time

contest for bragging rights only:
1. does the fed cut in the morning?
2. if so, by how much?
3. what does the market do in the first hour after the announcement? [if any]
4. how does the market close?

I was calling for an intermeeting cut on 1/11 - and that it should be on 1/15 to 1/17. That didn't happen, and looked what the markets did :p

No cut tomorrow, but confirmed rumors of a cut Wednesday filter out at 1 pm.

50 bps cut, with 25 bps in the following FOMC meeting

Market spikes down 350 points, then after the 1 pm rumor winds up 100 points.

If there is not an actual cut nor rumor, then we'll see a death spiral: 700 points and trading curbs hit.

Oops, program trading curbs removed as of November 7, 2007...

Once the actual cut occurs, there will be a 300 point up spike - which will lose 1/2 by end of day.

[DemonD]

Re: short term prediction time

No cut, dow ends at 11127 (down 8%).

the bloodbath is here! I'm loving it! (is that okay to admit?)

[BiscayneSunrise]

Re: short term prediction time

Anyone care to predict behavior of gold?

I am thinking lemmings brush aside PM's for the old habit of cash and treasuries as a flight to safety.

[Gordo]

Re: short term prediction time

contest for bragging rights only:
1. does the fed cut in the morning?
2. if so, by how much?
3. what does the market do in the first hour after the announcement? [if any]
4. how does the market close?

my guesses.
1. yes,
2. 50 bps,
3. is tricky since the dow futures are currently down about 500, at roughly 11600, so let's say that on the cut the dow rises to 11950 [that's right, still down 150 from friday's close]
4. tomorrow's close- 11600. [i can't resist the bearish call]

JK, you're a genius.

Fed cuts key interest rate

AP - 1 minute ago
WASHINGTON - Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson said Tuesday that Congress and the administration need to agree quickly on a package of tax cuts as the Federal Reserve cut a key interest rate by three-fourths of a percentage point to reinvigorate the economy.