short term prediction time

[c1ue]

Re: short term prediction time

Bernanke, who's yer bitch?!?!

http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/080122/fed_interest_rates.html

[jk]

Re: short term prediction time

contest for bragging rights only:
1. does the fed cut in the morning?
2. if so, by how much?
3. what does the market do in the first hour after the announcement? [if any]
4. how does the market close?

my guesses.
1. yes,
2. 50 bps,
3. is tricky since the dow futures are currently down about 500, at roughly 11600, so let's say that on the cut the dow rises to 11950 [that's right, still down 150 from friday's close]
4. tomorrow's close- 11600. [i can't resist the bearish call]

1. cut- check
2. 50bps- wrong, 75
3. at 1 hr into the market the dow is at 11936. if that's the high, i'd say my guess of 11950 is close enough.
4. the close- we'll see

[santafe2]

Re: short term prediction time

JK, you're a genius.

jk - I composed a response to your post last evening detailing my view regarding the absurdity of the Fed cutting rates today with this much inflation in the pipeline...etc, etc.

After re-reading, I realized I was just hoping the Fed had more guts than they likely had and I tabled that post and waited for the morning.

Very nice work. I like to think I have some very smart friends and while we jaw boned the world wide drop to death yesterday, none of us made that call.

[blazespinnaker]

Re: short term prediction time

1. cut- check
2. 50bps- wrong, 75
3. at 1 hr into the market the dow is at 11936. if that's the high, i'd say my guess of 11950 is close enough.
4. the close- we'll see

Well done, JK.. You really nailed this one. You're a credit to iTulip, that's for sure.

[jk]

Re: short term prediction time

contest for bragging rights only:
1. does the fed cut in the morning?
2. if so, by how much?
3. what does the market do in the first hour after the announcement? [if any]
4. how does the market close?

my guesses.
1. yes,
2. 50 bps,
3. is tricky since the dow futures are currently down about 500, at roughly 11600, so let's say that on the cut the dow rises to 11950 [that's right, still down 150 from friday's close]
4. tomorrow's close- 11600. [i can't resist the bearish call]

1. check
2. 1/2 credit
3. dji one hour after the opening- 11936 v predicted 11950 - check
4. no, my bearishness misled me once again.

score 2.5/4

[Gordo]

Re: short term prediction time

1. check
2. 1/2 credit
3. dji one hour after the opening- 11936 v predicted 11950 - check
4. no, my bearishness misled me once again.

score 2.5/4

JK, you're either a genius or you had advance knowledge that Mr. Bernanke has joined the PPT as Team Leader.

Which is it?

[GRG55]

Re: short term prediction time

1. cut- check
2. 50bps- wrong, 75
3. at 1 hr into the market the dow is at 11936. if that's the high, i'd say my guess of 11950 is close enough.
4. the close- we'll see

Well that was fun, eh. jk, well done predicting the Panic! And Gordo, evidently Bernanke and the Feds read the FT...

Hope you're right, Grg55, but I'll take your bet. The Financial Times does not use the work "Panic" in a headline, unless they know something. Mini-crash tomorrow.

[jk]

Re: short term prediction time

JK, you're either a genius or you had advance knowledge that Mr. Bernanke has joined the PPT as Team Leader.

Which is it?

bernanke is my brother-in-law, and i'm a secret consultant to the ppt.:rolleyes:


[i just thought it would be fun to take some guesses.]

[Gordo]

Re: short term prediction time

bernanke is my brother-in-law, and i'm a secret consultant to the ppt.:rolleyes:


[i just thought it would be fun to take some guesses.]

Mr. Bernanke started out with the title of "Helicopter Ben", then he moved up to "B-52 Ben" with the 75 point cut today, and when he cuts 50 bps more next week, he will be forever after known as "Space Shuttle Ben."

[GRG55]

Re: short term prediction time

Mr. Bernanke started out with the title of "Helicopter Ben", then he moved up to "B-52 Ben" with the 75 point cut today, and when he cuts 50 bps more next week, he will be forever after known as "Space Shuttle Ben."

Let's hope not.

A helicopter can hover, a B-52 can cruise long distances, but without the external booster tank fuel the Space Shuttle loses altitude steadily as it glides to another "dead stick" landing on earth.

Then again maybe the SWFs are Ben's external fuel?