Shell oil :- Ban new ICE cars by 2030

[Mega]

Well don't show this to GRG55............
https://thedriven.io/2020/07/20/shel...sales-to-2030/

[GRG55]

Re: Shell oil :- Ban new ICE cars by 2030

Shell should stick to managing its energy businesses and stay out of public policy pronouncements. Quite unseemly in my view. It is blatantly "talking its book" now that it is spending shareholder capital buying up vehicle charging technology.

Conventional automobile manufacturing and aerospace are two of the largest and most important industrial activities in developed economies. They account for enormous component and service supply chains and a huge number of skilled and well paid middle class manufacturing jobs. The aerospace industry is flat on its back and may never fully recover. The automotive industry, which has maintained too much capacity for too many decades, continues to shrink (note Ford's recent announcement of more plant closures in Europe this week).

Calls to bring ICE vehicle production to an end quickly may be well intentioned from a "save the world" standpoint, but I'm not hearing any useful discussion from anywhere about how to deal with the consequences. Electric cars don't require the foundries and the steel to make engine blocks, the specialty metallurgy and other skills that come with assembling piston motors, the enormous transmission plants, and a host of other things. So what happens to all those people? Retrain them to maintain windmills? Or installation crews for solar panels on condominium rooftops? Maybe we can turn some of them into robotics support personnel at microchip fabs? Who knows, but on the back of the already disruptive corona virus shutdowns in the global economy, I think killing the ICE car industry on a short timeline is going to result in some seriously big problems socially, unless we can figure out how to support the worker's transition.

[shiny!]

Re: Shell oil :- Ban new ICE cars by 2030

Shell should stick to managing its energy businesses and stay out of public policy pronouncements. Quite unseemly in my view. It is blatantly "talking its book" now that it is spending shareholder capital buying up vehicle charging technology.

Conventional automobile manufacturing and aerospace are two of the largest and most important industrial activities in developed economies. They account for enormous component and service supply chains and a huge number of skilled and well paid middle class manufacturing jobs. The aerospace industry is flat on its back and may never fully recover. The automotive industry, which has maintained too much capacity for too many decades, continues to shrink (note Ford's recent announcement of more plant closures in Europe this week).

Calls to bring ICE vehicle production to an end quickly may be well intentioned from a "save the world" standpoint, but I'm not hearing any useful discussion from anywhere about how to deal with the consequences. Electric cars don't require the foundries and the steel to make engine blocks, the specialty metallurgy and other skills that come with assembling piston motors, the enormous transmission plants, and a host of other things. So what happens to all those people? Retrain them to maintain windmills? Or installation crews for solar panels on condominium rooftops? Maybe we can turn some of them into robotics support personnel at microchip fabs? Who knows, but on the back of the already disruptive corona virus shutdowns in the global economy, I think killing the ICE car industry on a short timeline is going to result in some seriously big problems socially, unless we can figure out how to support the worker's transition.

What to do with too many people and not enough jobs? Plagues and famines can take care of a lot of us, and for the rest there's always the option of mass interment in re-education camps.

[Mega]

Re: Shell oil :- Ban new ICE cars by 2030

Am watching the EV space like a Hawk........Toyota ( not a start up company looking for funds) sez they be selling Solid State battery EV's by 2026. More than twice the engery density of todays battery packs, they require a lot less heating/cooling......a model 3 battery pack is 550 kgs we could be looking at a better one weighting in at 225 kgs!
As the late Colin Chapman (Lotus cars) said "Just ad lightness".......Toyota will add Build Q as well...........Battery life will be 20-30 years!

AS for GRG55, Shell is an electric power provider here in the UK......I wonder if they can arrange their business model to allow them to make more money from "Park & Charge" (sell them coffee & food) while they spend 15-30 mins on a fast charge..........rather than a few cents a gallon on a "Splash & dash" gas model?

Mike

[Mega]

Re: Shell oil :- Ban new ICE cars by 2030

Gas pedel response in mill-secs!

[Mega]

Re: Shell oil :- Ban new ICE cars by 2030

Hmmmm

Everything we need we got expect the battery tec, that might be here by 2026-2030 ish.

This time around we must make performance expensive again!......no cheap performance cars!
Plebs get inpulse engine, we get warp drive

[Mega]

Re: Shell oil :- Ban new ICE cars by 2030

Yes, just the ticket!

Give the Plebs some silly guff about "Greta" etc & then tax the HELL out of them unless they buy this..........

;)
Mike

[Mega]

Re: Shell oil :- Ban new ICE cars by 2030

Mega's "Ride" will be....different ;)

[Mega]

Re: Shell oil :- Ban new ICE cars by 2030

Yes, popular as the VW Beatle

Don't forget to thank the CCP !!!!!
Mike

Ps. If your wondering about wheel/tyre size 145/70 R12 ( about the size of the Ye Old Austin Mini)

[bpr]

Re: Shell oil :- Ban new ICE cars by 2030

...I'm not hearing any useful discussion from anywhere about how to deal with the consequences. Electric cars don't require the foundries and the steel to make engine blocks, the specialty metallurgy and other skills that come with assembling piston motors, the enormous transmission plants, and a host of other things. So what happens to all those people? Retrain them to maintain windmills? Or installation crews for solar panels on condominium rooftops? Maybe we can turn some of them into robotics support personnel at microchip fabs? Who knows, but on the back of the already disruptive corona virus shutdowns in the global economy, I think killing the ICE car industry on a short timeline is going to result in some seriously big problems socially, unless we can figure out how to support the worker's transition.

The negative consequences mentioned are purely economic and the most prominent (to most, I think) are the potential job losses. And that's not an argument that holds water (today, or even 30 years ago), frankly.

When digital photography and audio formats were taking hold in the early 2000s no one was talking about propping up film and tape to save jobs: the newer formats were cheaper, more efficient, and usually of higher quality. The fact is, technological advances do make workers' skills obsolete, and it happens during their lifetimes.

Kodak's supply chains were not an issue of public debate when everyone on the planet stopped using film cameras. New, easier and better products were available and we used them.

The argument you're making here is often used to support private health insurance in the U.S., which clearly makes no sense: we pay more for worse healthcare to just employ a bunch of people that make attaining the care we need harder. It's a bonkers argument.

If there's a better way that utilizes fewer resources (both human and natural) and provides the same level of convenience, then I'm afraid that that is the way we will go. Lobbying money from industries can slow the process, but eventually consumers will get better tech at a lower price, and the jobs will be lost regardless.

Now, if your argument is that electric actually consumes more resources or requires a more labor intensive and risky and (most importantly) expensive method of production, then that's worth considering. But just saying, "We're going to lose a bunch of jobs," holds not a drop of water. Not in this or any economic climate of the last forty years.

Especially after the economic shocks of (this and) the last crisis, where upwards of 50 million jobs in the US alone have been upended: who cares if people are unemployed, if the end result is a more affordable, more efficient product? If it appears to be cleaner environmentally, then that will help the marketing team, but it's not necessary, really.

[Southernguy]

Re: Shell oil :- Ban new ICE cars by 2030

As technology advances manufacturing jobs are reduced. That's economic history. How many working hours did you need to produce a car in 1920? How many do you need now?
Jobs are reduced in the production field and created in the services sector. Health care (as we live longer we need more care), education, arts (including movies and series, literature, etc.), tourism (it will recover from C19 recession). It happened before and it shall happen agail. With 1 million miles batteries on sight (even if it is exagerated by 100%, still something incredible) EV's are the future. I fathom (Al Naimi said so long time ago IIRW) quite a bit of oil is gonna stay under.

The negative consequences mentioned are purely economic and the most prominent (to most, I think) are the potential job losses. And that's not an argument that holds water (today, or even 30 years ago), frankly.

When digital photography and audio formats were taking hold in the early 2000s no one was talking about propping up film and tape to save jobs: the newer formats were cheaper, more efficient, and usually of higher quality. The fact is, technological advances do make workers' skills obsolete, and it happens during their lifetimes.

Kodak's supply chains were not an issue of public debate when everyone on the planet stopped using film cameras. New, easier and better products were available and we used them.

The argument you're making here is often used to support private health insurance in the U.S., which clearly makes no sense: we pay more for worse healthcare to just employ a bunch of people that make attaining the care we need harder. It's a bonkers argument.

If there's a better way that utilizes fewer resources (both human and natural) and provides the same level of convenience, then I'm afraid that that is the way we will go. Lobbying money from industries can slow the process, but eventually consumers will get better tech at a lower price, and the jobs will be lost regardless.

Now, if your argument is that electric actually consumes more resources or requires a more labor intensive and risky and (most importantly) expensive method of production, then that's worth considering. But just saying, "We're going to lose a bunch of jobs," holds not a drop of water. Not in this or any economic climate of the last forty years.

Especially after the economic shocks of (this and) the last crisis, where upwards of 50 million jobs in the US alone have been upended: who cares if people are unemployed, if the end result is a more affordable, more efficient product? If it appears to be cleaner environmentally, then that will help the marketing team, but it's not necessary, really.

[GRG55]

Re: Shell oil :- Ban new ICE cars by 2030

As technology advances manufacturing jobs are reduced. That's economic history...

This statement is patently untrue.

[Mega]

Re: Shell oil :- Ban new ICE cars by 2030

Oil & Gas will be here for a Very VERY long time, but I can't help to think that to quote Churchill "..the end of the beginning " for Gas cars.....

Mike

[GRG55]

Re: Shell oil :- Ban new ICE cars by 2030

Oil & Gas will be here for a Very VERY long time, but I can't help to think that to quote Churchill "..the end of the beginning " for Gas cars.....

Mike

There isn't a hope in hell. And the more conviction I hear from pundits, politicians, the Davos set and some people on this forum that battery EVs are the future, the more convinced I become that it will never happen.

[Mega]

Re: Shell oil :- Ban new ICE cars by 2030

I think we see a "Spread" of answers............
Hybrids, plug in hybrids & EV's................

Also I don't rule out a new design of Ice engine....2 stroke....

But the days of pure ICE are now over & increasing move to Battery Power............Hydrogen will play a part but a small one if the Solid sate battery pans out...

Mike