China: when do Cold wars turn Hot?

[lakedaemonian]

Re: China: when do Cold wars turn Hot?

Japan may become a 3rd bloc. Russia is too weak, likely to be absorbed by China, matter of time.

Japan has everything needed to become a military power. Japan has the technology, manufacturing, money, an ultra disciplined and fearless military, and global economic influence, especially in South East Asia.

Japanese culture is still frightened of its own former genocidal foreign policy shadow.

It has capital and technology enabled manufacturing potential, but struggles with home grown military tech beyond AIP submarines, most everything else is imported or outrageously expensive copies.

South Korea, Malaysia, Indonesia, Philippines, Solomon Islands, and others all share hatred for Japan due to history, but a few of the poorer ones bite their lips when Japan brings money.

Japan’s military is entirely untested(much like China’s) and it has limited respect within Japanese culture, but their fighter pilots, submariners, and a few specialist units are well regarded. I would expect their navy to perform well.

But Japan is in need of an entirely new military doctrine to achieve anything beyond protection of the Japanese Home Islands and perhaps shipping routes. Japan has the longest and most vulnerable national supply chains in the world, even more than China.

Japanese military doctrine may allow it to defend its supply chains from disruption via naval escort(which is super hard in today’s mil tech environment).

But does it currently allow Japan the ability to deter China by threatening to disrupt theirs in kind(AIP subs)? Not to my knowledge.

[touchring]

Re: China: when do Cold wars turn Hot?

Japanese culture is still frightened of its own former genocidal foreign policy shadow.

It has capital and technology enabled manufacturing potential, but struggles with home grown military tech beyond AIP submarines, most everything else is imported or outrageously expensive copies.

South Korea, Malaysia, Indonesia, Philippines, Solomon Islands, and others all share hatred for Japan due to history, but a few of the poorer ones bite their lips when Japan brings money.

Japan’s military is entirely untested(much like China’s) and it has limited respect within Japanese culture, but their fighter pilots, submariners, and a few specialist units are well regarded. I would expect their navy to perform well.

But Japan is in need of an entirely new military doctrine to achieve anything beyond protection of the Japanese Home Islands and perhaps shipping routes. Japan has the longest and most vulnerable national supply chains in the world, even more than China.

Japanese military doctrine may allow it to defend its supply chains from disruption via naval escort(which is super hard in today’s mil tech environment).

But does it currently allow Japan the ability to deter China by threatening to disrupt theirs in kind(AIP subs)? Not to my knowledge.

Doctrines and laws can be changed. Japan had a pacifist policy for more than 200 years pre-Meiji.

By 1905, Japan defeated the combined Russian pacific and baltic fleet. At that time, Russia's economy is about 5 times the size of Japan. In WWII, the USA had an economy that was 10 times of Japan and nearly lost to Japan's navy.

There has never been a more invincible military power (man to man) in history.

[lakedaemonian]

Re: China: when do Cold wars turn Hot?

Doctrines and laws can be changed. Japan had a pacifist policy for more than 200 years pre-Meiji.

By 1905, Japan defeated the combined Russian pacific and baltic fleet. At that time, Russia's economy is about 5 times the size of Japan. In WWII, the USA had an economy that was 10 times of Japan and nearly lost to Japan's navy.

There has never been a more invincible military power (man to man) in history.

The battered Imperial Navy of a largely land locked Russia sailed around the entire world to get slaughtered by a Navy First Nation with decisive home field advantage and wireless radio communication for command and control.

Probably the most unfair fight in human history until 2003.

The US was never at risk of losing in the Pacific to the Japanese. It was only ever a question of how long until the US won.

The Japanese had brilliant fighter pilots in 1941, but they were irreplaceable and mostly dead within 2 years.

The rapid advance Japan made in the first 6 months of 1942 was proven to be excessively risky(reckless).

As soon as the much hyped Japanese faced even mediocre opposition from a handful of middle aged Australian Choccos at Kokoda they got owned.

The Japanese were recklessly arrogant and tactically, operationally, and strategically inept.

And even worse when it came to logistics(which actually wins wars).

Japanese leadership knew the war was over in 1942 when Japan expended high single digit national energy output JUST to keep a literal handful of troops in the Solomon Islands from starving to death.

Don’t even get me started on the complete lack of command and control over basic order and discipline amongst troops that prevailed in every theatre of operations.

Epic brutality and recklessness only gets you so far.

[thriftyandboringinohio]

Re: China: when do Cold wars turn Hot?

...Epic brutality and recklessness only gets you so far...

I'm always surprised and sad about how far that approach can get a villain.
A lot of damage can be done before the inevitable failure.

[bpr]

Re: China: when do Cold wars turn Hot?

Japan may become a 3rd bloc. Russia is too weak, likely to be absorbed by China, matter of time.

Good insight here that was derailed by the WWII Japan talk. China’s lawfare dovetails nicely with Putin’s authoritarian means: their methods of retaining power are perfectly aligned, even if imperfectly via economy or history.

China, from the Western perspective, has a lot more to offer, but we have a tendency to overestimate the importance of economy. From a purely military perspective, Russia has been an aggressor on the world stage (often uncontested by the West, often in former Soviet states), while CCP has limited its “police actions” to locals and has not shown its true strength (or weakness). Neither country has much use for human rights, so they are a natural match, and complement each other well, and that’s not even considering the digital domain.

How(meaningful will it be)? China’s done it for decades, my only wish would be for us(the west) to be less ham fisted and more nuanced about it...

Big Western Brands(non-FAANG+) are going to hate this, but it’s worth reminding folks how much IBM liked Hitler, until they didn’t.

I’m not sure what you’re implying… IBM did just fine playing both sides of the war. Should history repeat, there’s no reason to believe that Western brands (FAANG or otherwise) would not do the same.

In order for the US government to take a meaningful role in the co-development of these companies in the ways you imply would require a deep political realignment that I don’t understand. I don’t see US foreign-policy in the digital domain as ham-fisted, but rather non-existent.

[touchring]

Re: China: when do Cold wars turn Hot?

I'm always surprised and sad about how far that approach can get a villain.
A lot of damage can be done before the inevitable failure.

So far, I've not seen anything that Japanese people are any different from other Asian people with regards to evilness, maybe they have the tendency to go to the extreme. What is evil is the establishment and people in power. Doesn't matter the race or culture. The saying "Power tends to corrupt, and absolute power corrupts absolutely".

The power in feudal Japan, the samurai class were content with the power and privilege they had over the peasant class until they realise one day they were not that powerful after all, and the shame made them cross the oceans. Is history repeating itself?

[bpr]

Re: China: when do Cold wars turn Hot?

If I was Trump, I would sit down the leaders of FAANG+ and lay all the cards on the table.

FAANG+ are the Army, Navy, Air Force, and Marines of the war we are currently fighting.

There is far more than just money at stake.

We need an aligned national strategy(within a coalition of allies) built on consistency, freedom, truth, and trust.

I think this bold part is what is the sticking point for me. I find your analysis convincing, but the mechanism by which US companies shift their focus away from quarterly profits and toward retaining American Exceptionalism is... hazy.

You may be right, that the war will not be a conventional kinetic one, but rather a tech/economic one. And you may be right, that there is far more than money at stake.

I'm just at a loss as to how the US could possibly confront these possibilities given the current political climate. We can't even agree on local police issues or get public funding for healthcare during a pandemic.

You think some kind of nationalization of Big Tech under DHS or something is possible?

I mean, read what you wrote again, starting with "If I was Trump..." and ending with "There is far more than just money at stake." I find those two ideas completely at odds: Trump's sole metric of strength and power is money, and that is the metric by which most Americans operate. There could not possibly be anything more than money at stake, because there is nothing more than "just money."

[thriftyandboringinohio]

Re: China: when do Cold wars turn Hot?

So far, I've not seen anything that Japanese people are any different from other Asian people with regards to evilness, maybe they have the tendency to go to the extreme. What is evil is the establishment and people in power. Doesn't matter the race or culture. The saying "Power tends to corrupt, and absolute power corrupts absolutely".

The power in feudal Japan, the samurai class were content with the power and privilege they had over the peasant class until they realise one day they were not that powerful after all, and the shame made them cross the oceans. Is history repeating itself?

You are spot on touchring.
I did not mean to imply that any particular group is more villainous.

I was thinking about some of history's most evil leaders and how they charged ahead with intense brutality and recklessness.
You expressed that thought so vividly and succinctly it really resonates with me. "Epic brutality and recklessness" is a powerful turn of phrase.

Epic brutality and recklessness have had a surprising amount of temporary success, and it's sad that millions will stand by and let that plan run, time and again.

[jpatter666]

Re: China: when do Cold wars turn Hot?

So far, I've not seen anything that Japanese people are any different from other Asian people with regards to evilness, maybe they have the tendency to go to the extreme. What is evil is the establishment and people in power. Doesn't matter the race or culture. The saying "Power tends to corrupt, and absolute power corrupts absolutely".

The power in feudal Japan, the samurai class were content with the power and privilege they had over the peasant class until they realise one day they were not that powerful after all, and the shame made them cross the oceans. Is history repeating itself?

I'm going to disagree here. WWII Japan felt it was above all other races. A nation chosen by divine providence, its leaders descended from the gods.

And they were brutal. Massacres in China, Korean "comfort women", the Philippines Death March.

Japan has never had to face up to its actions in WWII like Germany did. This still leads to bad blood and mistrust of Japan in Asia.

Edit: and for overall effectiveness, the Germans stood head and shoulders over just about everyone.

[touchring]

Re: China: when do Cold wars turn Hot?

I'm going to disagree here. WWII Japan felt it was above all other races. A nation chosen by divine providence, its leaders descended from the gods.

Leaders descended from gods. Sounds like North Korea. Anyway, it's already happening again, just that this time round, the people being deluded are not Japanese.

And they were brutal. Massacres in China, Korean "comfort women", the Philippines Death March.

Japan has never had to face up to its actions in WWII like Germany did. This still leads to bad blood and mistrust of Japan in Asia.

Edit: and for overall effectiveness, the Germans stood head and shoulders over just about everyone.

The Viet people were the original inhabitants of south china. The Chinese today are actually from the yellow river, which is far north. If we're going to go back to look at history, there will be too much to write about. One could also say the Americas belongs to the Indians. We could also go all the way back to Africa where all humans supposedly originate from and how homo sapiens brutalized the neanderthals and took over their lands.

While the past is important, what is important is to be aware that the homo sapiens species are no saints and are all equally guilty of atrocities.