China: when do Cold wars turn Hot?

[shiny!]

Trump is challenging China's claims in the South China Sea, which co-incidentally is rich in oil and gas reserves. We have warships doing military exercises there.

US Gov't shuts down Chinese consulate in Houston.

China is vowing retaliation.

According to the Wall St Journal, Secretary Pompeo is going to release a statement later today urging the Chinese people to rise up and overthrow their Communist govt. That'll go over well! I'm sure they'll all rush out and do just that.

The timing combined with the extremely provocative rhetoric makes me conclude that the U.S. gov't needs a scapegoat for all its problems. One that will create some nice inflation. China got the honors.

Let's have MOAR WAR!

Questions:

Is this more of Trump's political brinksmanship or a real desire to create war?

Can the tensions be rolled back or will this escalate into a full-blown hot war?

[lakedaemonian]

Re: China: when do Cold wars turn Hot?

Provocation is bad.

But deterring malignant action isn’t.

It’s not a binary choice, but better visualised on a continuum, kind of like a dimmer switch.

It’s worth mentioning China hasn’t had any foreign adventures and military action since it lost a brief border war with Vietnam badly in 1979.

That’s nearly 2 generations never experiencing conflict.

So the China people are perfectly aligned to be instantly activated by patriotic nationalism.

if things get tough enough domestically for China(very real possibility), it would be easy for Xi to distract the Chinese people away from domestic concerns with a foreign adventure.

Think of the reasons for the 1982 Falkland Islands invasion by Argentina(to activate nationalism and distract from domestic issues) with the results of 1983 Grenada(display renewed international dominance while playing with new toys of a new professional military).

There is a good possibility China could act with Grenada results for Falklands reasons.

Low risk, high probability of success, very short duration action.

[shiny!]

Re: China: when do Cold wars turn Hot?

What is the likelihood of China and the U.S. engaging in a war with each other? Who stands to profit the most? Because it "feels" like this rise in tension is being orchestrated.

[lakedaemonian]

Re: China: when do Cold wars turn Hot?

What is the likelihood of China and the U.S. engaging in a war with each other? Who stands to profit the most? Because it "feels" like this rise in tension is being orchestrated.

Firstly, I think it depends on one's definition of war.

I would argue the US and China have already been at war for years. At least in the unconventional, economic, and political sense.

Most Americans only concept of war is perpetual small kinetic wars while they are shopping at the mall and big total wars like WWII in distant history.

China cannot match(yet) US kinetic military force projection capability.

The US has invested trillions in sunk costs on advanced legacy military capability.

China would be foolish to go head to head against the US and is better off investing a fraction to disrupt rather than defeat the trillions of sunk costs the US has invested.

China is better off investing in ship killing ballistic missiles to disrupt US carrier battle groups. Spend a few billion to disrupt a few hundred billion to a trillion.

Autonomous kinetic drone swarms, AI, and cyber capabilities have lower cost of entry and less decisive advantage.

I don't see a conventional war on the horizon between both nations. I'd rate probability of a kinetic war at near zero, although the risk can only go one way.

But we are already deep into a new Cold War where we will see increasing clashes on the edge.

I think the most likely point of kinetic action will be in China's nearshore sphere, again something akin to a Grenada for Falklands reasoning, probably initiated after global markets close and completed before markets reopen(akin to Turkey's 2016 coup attempt....but in China's case a guaranteed win).

Perhaps Hong Kong was it for a bit(lawfare), but the risk remains depending on China's domestic situation if a distraction is needed.

It's worth reading about the Thucydides Trap between the US & China: https://thediplomat.com/2020/06/for-...ap-is-closing/

Globalisation is going to unwind significantly for anything deemed National/Critical.

Semiconductors for example: https://steveblank.com/2020/06/18/th...-21st-century/

We are already seeing a clear bifurcation in big tech super platforms.

FAANG+(tech oligarch corrupt freedom): Facebook, Apple, Amazon, Netflix, Google, Microsoft, Cisco, Oracle, Salesforce, etc.

BATH+(techno-authoritarian corrupt order): Baidu, Alibaba, Tencent, Huawei, Bytedance, etc.

Big Tech wins because they are the biggest and most effective weapon to counter their respective adversary array and continue to justify their inappropriate behaviour.

I see two networks emerging from this by 2030:

China's BATH+ appealing to developing world authoritarian nations, China will gladly hand over moderator rights under Chinese admin to ensure continuity of government via tech surveillance.

US FAANG+ appealing to first world coalition nations and those genuinely frightened by the rise of China(India's ban on Chinese apps).

There's also the possibility of a 'bolt from the blue' network alternative appealing to individuals and nations afraid of the two main rivals.

GeoDigital strategy applying Metcalfe's Zipf's Law to achieve geopolitical effect.

[touchring]

Re: China: when do Cold wars turn Hot?

Firstly, I think it depends on one's definition of war.

Didn't China just won one war?

[seobook]

Re: China: when do Cold wars turn Hot?

Globalisation is going to unwind significantly for anything deemed National/Critical.

Semiconductors for example: https://steveblank.com/2020/06/18/th...-21st-century/

We are already seeing a clear bifurcation in big tech super platforms.

FAANG+(tech oligarch corrupt freedom): Facebook, Apple, Amazon, Netflix, Google, Microsoft, Cisco, Oracle, Salesforce, etc.

BATH+(techno-authoritarian corrupt order): Baidu, Alibaba, Tencent, Huawei, Bytedance, etc.

Big Tech wins because they are the biggest and most effective weapon to counter their respective adversary array and continue to justify their inappropriate behaviour.

I see two networks emerging from this by 2030:

China's BATH+ appealing to developing world authoritarian nations, China will gladly hand over moderator rights under Chinese admin to ensure continuity of government via tech surveillance.

US FAANG+ appealing to first world coalition nations and those genuinely frightened by the rise of China(India's ban on Chinese apps).

There's also the possibility of a 'bolt from the blue' network alternative appealing to individuals and nations afraid of the two main rivals.

GeoDigital strategy applying Metcalfe's Zipf's Law to achieve geopolitical effect.

There could also be a third network out of Europe if the EU can actually hold together.

The regulatory blowback from GDPR, mandatory copyright payments for indexing content, repeated fines on Google, etc. ... at some point a weakness in one of the US tech monopolies after a regulatory action could leave openings for some local competitors inside Europe.

[jk]

Re: China: when do Cold wars turn Hot?

don't know if anyone else here is both old enough and was paying attention young enough to remember that china's shelling of the nationalist-held islands of quemoy and matsu got a lot of attention in the kennedy-nixon debates. that never escalated.

[lakedaemonian]

Re: China: when do Cold wars turn Hot?

There could also be a third network out of Europe if the EU can actually hold together.

The regulatory blowback from GDPR, mandatory copyright payments for indexing content, repeated fines on Google, etc. ... at some point a weakness in one of the US tech monopolies after a regulatory action could leave openings for some local competitors inside Europe.

It’s certainly possible, but there’s not a lot of disruptive innovation coming out of the EU lately.

Skype got bought out and eclipsed.

Spotify is doing really well as the leader in music streaming and punching into podcasts.

SAP is an enterprise-level visit from Lawrence Olivier in Marathon Man, “Is it safe?”

Other than that, there’s a few B-list travel related platforms(starving due to CV19) and generic food delivery platforms waiting to die.

Scandanavia/Baltics are the best bets today, perhaps Iceland tomorrow.

Eastern Europe and Russia have the tech talent, but the best go west, with the exception of apex illicit hackers.

No one will invest in or trust Russian or Eastern European platforms.

India and Africa have significant but random potential, but are held back by lack of capital and consistency.

Another related option is the rise of supranational actors.

China’s BATH+ are fully integrated into Chinese CCP/PLA/MSS strategy

The US’s FAANG+ will likely align with US government as the digital world bifurcates. Growth will focus on western aligned and non-aligned countries as well as government cloud services. More alliance than full integration.

Will the rise of supranational actors be more like Peter Thiel’s vision of libertarian digital sovereignty for the uber wealthy or Jimmy Wales’s vision of respectful community collaboration?

Real shots will be fired in the future.

But the real war will be fought on competing digital super platforms in the developing world.

Everyone’s looking at China’s One Belt, One Road initiative to physically connect the world to China that absolutely dwarfs the Marshall Plan in inflation adjusted terms.

There’s literally no discussion of China’s unspoken One Platform, One Network digital equivalent outside of the Huawei 5g story and the Chinese domestic digital surveillance story.

The future isn’t about Geopolitical tools like Nimitz/Ford class Supercarriers, it’s about GeoDigital tools like WeChat superplatforms.

[lakedaemonian]

Re: China: when do Cold wars turn Hot?

don't know if anyone else here is both old enough and was paying attention young enough to remember that china's shelling of the nationalist-held islands of quemoy and matsu got a lot of attention in the kennedy-nixon debates. that never escalated.

China invading Taiwan would be incredibly silly and not very diplomatic of a returning global superpower.

Far too big of a risk due to it being far too much downside and far too little upside.

I expect more Lawfare(Hong Kong), continued political/economic warfare, and some sort of limited and carefully measured military pressure applied.

China’s culture doesn’t do Clausewitz or Boyd, they do Sun Tsu.

[LazyBoy]

Re: China: when do Cold wars turn Hot?

LakeD,
in the context of "network wars", do you see the recent US announcements regarding WeChat and TikTok as a meaningful action? And what would be the reason to pre-announce the intent? (Before Trump banned them, he said he was going to.)

[touchring]

Re: China: when do Cold wars turn Hot?

LakeD,
in the context of "network wars", do you see the recent US announcements regarding WeChat and TikTok as a meaningful action? And what would be the reason to pre-announce the intent? (Before Trump banned them, he said he was going to.)

China already bans fb, twitter and google so really no big deal? TikTok is really a waste of time.

[lakedaemonian]

Re: China: when do Cold wars turn Hot?

LakeD,
in the context of "network wars", do you see the recent US announcements regarding WeChat and TikTok as a meaningful action? And what would be the reason to pre-announce the intent? (Before Trump banned them, he said he was going to.)

I’ve been published a few times on how Moore’s Law, Metcalfe’s Law, and Zipf’s Law may apply to geopolitics and national security.

Moore’s Law relates to the continuous ratcheting of tech price/performance. Where we have more computing horsepower in our pocket than existed on the entire planet 50 years ago.

Metcalfe’s Law relates to network value growing quadratically. A network if 1 is worth 1, 10 is worth 100, 100 is worth 10,000, 1000 is worth 1 million due to network connections.

Zipf’s Law relates to distribution. Take language, most common word is used twice as much as #2, #2 is used twice as much as #3, #3 is used twice as much as #4, etc.

Why do Moore’s, Metcalfe’s, and Zipf’s Laws all matter in aggregate? What does it mean?

Winner takes all(almost).

Superplatforms are evolving into the new superpowers.

Superplatforms of geopolitical significance = GeoDigital.

One of the greatest threats the US faces is from Chinese Superplatforms.

China’s One Belt, One Road absolutely dwarfs the Marshall Plan(adjusted for inflation).

Easily overshadowed by OBOR‘S physical layer is the digital layer.

WeChat is utterly dominant in China. And Tik Tok has been a runaway global hit.

But WeChat is used by CCP/PLA/MSS to control China’s population, just look at Dr Li Wenliang.

And Tik Tok doesn’t use just 1-2 user surveillance techniques like all the rest, it uses them ALL...and attempts to obfuscate it.

Imagine you are a developing world wannabe authoritarian and China offers you a debt relief deal in exchange for sole social media license, with moderator rights under their admin to ensure lifelong rule?

Digital bifurcation, digital Cold War is clearly underway.

But it didn’t start with Trump’s latest decree, it just put an exclamation point in it.

Why now? Election

Why? Because we have unknowingly(largely) been at war with China for decades.

How(meaningful will it be)? China’s done it for decades, my only wish would be for us(the west) to be less ham fisted and more nuanced about it.

Big Western Brands(non-FAANG+) are going to hate this, but it’s worth reminding folks how much IBM liked Hitler, until they didn’t.

[jk]

Re: China: when do Cold wars turn Hot?

multi-polarity will involve blocs competing with different transaction/reserve currencies, different software super-platforms, separate but sometimes overlapping supply chains. china and u.s. are obviously centers for 2 blocs. will there be a 3rd bloc? russia+europe could certainly compete if they wished, but that "+" is a big prerequisite.

[touchring]

Re: China: when do Cold wars turn Hot?

multi-polarity will involve blocs competing with different transaction/reserve currencies, different software super-platforms, separate but sometimes overlapping supply chains. china and u.s. are obviously centers for 2 blocs. will there be a 3rd bloc? russia+europe could certainly compete if they wished, but that "+" is a big prerequisite.

Japan may become a 3rd bloc. Russia is too weak, likely to be absorbed by China, matter of time.

Japan has everything needed to become a military power. Japan has the technology, manufacturing, money, an ultra disciplined and fearless military, and global economic influence, especially in South East Asia.

[lakedaemonian]

Re: China: when do Cold wars turn Hot?

multi-polarity will involve blocs competing with different transaction/reserve currencies, different software super-platforms, separate but sometimes overlapping supply chains. china and u.s. are obviously centers for 2 blocs. will there be a 3rd bloc? russia+europe could certainly compete if they wished, but that "+" is a big prerequisite.

Russia will certainly try to create and/or lead a superplatform.

They have some really solid tech talent, but they have no local/regional venture investment ecosystem.

And they have no trust.

A Russian classmate of mine from Stanford just made it into WSJ with his space company. He previously built successful startups in Russia before the Putin oligarchy system forced him out.

It’s an accurate wind indicator of future economic health.

There’s just zero trust with Putin’s Russia.

Apex talent has other external options.

I would imagine Russia trying to ingratiate themselves into an EU platform, but not likely as long as NATO exists(think Reagan and the Russian oil pipeline to Western Europe he smashed in 1980).

Plus Germany, France, Italy, Spain, and UK completely lack any precedent for such innovation(Minitel doesn’t count), nor would they likely accept it from more likely sources such as Scandanavia, Baltics, or Iceland unless absolute control was handed over to them.

NATO will likely be kept in a US led superplatform ecosystem as long as it exists.

——-

India has potential in terms of talent, some homegrown capital, and strong possibility(probability?) of building an independent superplatform.

If successful, an Indian superplatform would a strong contender in the non-aligned developing world, spoiling a Chinese push to break US dollar hegemony in the developing world.

Whoever owns the superplatform gets to shape the means of exchange on that platform.

——-

Japan’s only advantage to building an internal platform is its cohesive singular culture. But that same cultural risk aversion violently opposes and punishes any real attempt at radical innovation.

——-

Africa could create their own as the cowboy entrepreneurial culture exists, but the lack of risk capital and the risk of authoritarian blowback is real.

——-

If I was Trump, I would sit down the leaders of FAANG+ and lay all the cards on the table.

FAANG+ are the Army, Navy, Air Force, and Marines of the war we are currently fighting.

There is far more than just money at stake.

We need an aligned national strategy(within a coalition of allies) built on consistency, freedom, truth, and trust.