Greta is WOKE?

[Mega]

Re: Greta is WOKE?

This is my local Ford dealership BTW

[Mega]

Re: Greta is WOKE?

Think they going to find the base version 0-60 in more like 7-8 secs, GT version 5-6 secs..........the superfast one is some time off....

[Down Under]

Re: Greta is WOKE?

Stuffed up initial reply...

[Down Under]

Re: Greta is WOKE?

I made a post on this forum pre-COVID lockdown that there was a case to made for $80 oil. Now I think that is inevitable. If we aren't there by Christmas 2021, we'll be well along that path. And I fully expect the same green cohort to be bleating about how the shortage of oil and the high price are proof positive that it's the end of the age of oil, and it should be replaced with "cheaper" renewables.

GRG, You are clearly the oil expert on this forum, and I very much appreciate your input. You could have easily chosen the handle "OilMan" and no-one would dispute it. I want to preface what I'm about to ask, to ensure you don't take it the wrong way. I'd be surprised if you would, but none the less, it's very easy to miscommunicate on a forum like this. And, I know I can too easily not say/write, what I mean.

From what I've read, admittedly from the MSM which I know cannot be trusted, but the articles I've read claim the oil majors themselves are not expecting $80 per barrel in the timeframe that you are predicting. Now, I know I should go and dig into this further, and find out as much as is possible just what the oil majors have in their budgets or financial models regarding the oil price, but, as best as I can determine, there appears to be a disconnect between what you're saying and what the oil majors are supposedly planning on, regarding the price of oil.

Because, very clearly, if oil is heading to $80 per barrel, even if it doesn't get there until 2022, this means that even at today's prices, XOM, BP, CVX etc are a good buy, especially when their dividends are taken into account. And, of course, it's possible the dividend will be reduced, or cut for a period, but given that these companies can borrow for next to nothing, I think they will protect their dividends for as long as possible.

So, if you could take the time to reply, it would be much appreciated.

[GRG55]

Re: Greta is WOKE?

GRG, You are clearly the oil expert on this forum, and I very much appreciate your input. You could have easily chosen the handle "OilMan" and no-one would dispute it. I want to preface what I'm about to ask, to ensure you don't take it the wrong way. I'd be surprised if you would, but none the less, it's very easy to miscommunicate on a forum like this. And, I know I can too easily not say/write, what I mean.

From what I've read, admittedly from the MSM which I know cannot be trusted, but the articles I've read claim the oil majors themselves are not expecting $80 per barrel in the timeframe that you are predicting. Now, I know I should go and dig into this further, and find out as much as is possible just what the oil majors have in their budgets or financial models regarding the oil price, but, as best as I can determine, there appears to be a disconnect between what you're saying and what the oil majors are supposedly planning on, regarding the price of oil.

Because, very clearly, if oil is heading to $80 per barrel, even if it doesn't get there until 2022, this means that even at today's prices, XOM, BP, CVX etc are a good buy, especially when their dividends are taken into account. And, of course, it's possible the dividend will be reduced, or cut for a period, but given that these companies can borrow for next to nothing, I think they will protect their dividends for as long as possible.

So, if you could take the time to reply, it would be much appreciated.

The oil majors weren't planning for $60 in December 2014 either. Or $40 in June 2020.

You have to recognize that the oil majors have big economics departments staffed with really smart people with lots of letters after their names. And they have very elaborate and expensive econometric models built and operated by these really smart people. And they have various departments including exploration, production, transportation and marketing that use the forecast outputs from these expensive models, operated by those smart people, in their business planning. Sort of like the Federal Reserve Board smart people with expensive models that can't forecast either a financial bubble or the inevitable resulting bursting and recession, even when its staring them in the face. 'nuff said about that.

Lots of events could derail or delay the coming energy crisis. I expect a bid under oil next year...barring governments all over the world keeping their economies under lockdown like Feb, Mar and April, and continuing the fund people to stay home and not work. Possible that could happen. But not probable. That is the main caveat.

The world used 101 million barrels on an average day throughout 2019. We may end this year at above 90 million barrels per day average in 2020, despite the suspension of economic activity and daily life routines due to COVID. Yet we have people attempting to make the argument that oil is "dead". Tell me again we don't need fossil fuel energy? Really.

EVs, which seem to be the largest new thread topic generator on this forum these days represent 0.3% of the global light vehicle fleet. EVs are utterly irrelevant to helping the actual economic recovery dynamic coming out of COVID. Their influence over real economic activity and growth in the next up cycle will be in the noise (which would appear destined to be considerable, apparently). This is just one example of the deplorable level of critical thinking going on today.

There's a lot of other green economy talk going on, but most of it is going to prove to be a drag on recovery, not a contributor.

[Down Under]

Re: Greta is WOKE?

Stuffed up initial reply...

Sort of like the Federal Reserve Board smart people with expensive models that can't forecast either a financial bubble or the inevitable resulting bursting and recession, even when its staring them in the face. 'nuff said.

Really appreciate your reply, thanks a lot. Definitely no BS with you, GRG, which is what I like.

[shiny!]

Re: Greta is WOKE?

Really appreciate your reply, thanks a lot. Definitely no BS with you, GRG, which is what I like.

I second that emotion. :-)