Sacramento housing down from 392K to 280K

[Gordo]

When Arnie gets through cutting the Cal state budget, look out below, Sacramento.

sacramentolanding.blogspot.com

Wednesday, January 16, 2008

'Piece of Cake' Housing Downturn Exceeds 90s 'Depression'


They said it wouldn't happen, but it just did.

The decline in Sacramento home prices has surpassed the total decline of the 1990s housing bust. According to the Sacramento Association of Realtors, the December median home price fell to $280,000, a drop of 28.7% from its August 2005 peak of $392,750. That compares to a 24.1% drop between July 1990 and December 1996.



Much of the collapse in Sacramento home prices has occurred over the last year, with the median price plunging 21.1% since last December. It is the first time during this housing bust (and quite possibly the first time in Sacramento's modern history), that the median sale price for existing single family homes decreased by more than 20% year-over-year.

[bill]

Re: Sacramento housing down from 392K to 280K

http://www.ushomeauction.com/index.php

[touchring]

Re: Sacramento housing down from 392K to 280K

50% drop is not surprising in many parts of the world. American housing has always been more stable.

[Gordo]

1000+ mass Cal. foreclosure sale

http://www.ushomeauction.com/index.php

Thanks, Bill,for a truly shocking disclosure of the California foreclosure problem.

The 1000+ homes actually being sold at foreclosure are the tip of the iceberg. See below.

www.realtytrac.com/gateway_co.asp?accnt=64953&ItemID=2909

[DemonD]

Re: Sacramento housing down from 392K to 280K

Here's an almost guarantee: sac median will be under 200k by the end of 2009, likely much lower, and I would not be surprised to see a bottom at below 100k.

How's that for taking a bite out of your arm?

[rabot10]

Re: Sacramento housing down from 392K to 280K

Here's an almost guarantee: sac median will be under 200k by the end of 2009, likely much lower, and I would not be surprised to see a bottom at below 100k.

How's that for taking a bite out of your arm?

Not sure on that one, thats even to low for me to believe

[DemonD]

Re: Sacramento housing down from 392K to 280K

Rick, Sac-town is one of the highest in the nation in foreclosures, the economy isn't that strong enough to support all the outlying subdivisions, it's basically a SF exurb, a lot of the homebuying activity was from SF speculators, the weather sucks there, I don't see any way that the median stays above 200k. Maybe SeanO can lend a hand on this one, Sacramento is toast. Also, I'm not saying housing will go under 100k, just that I would not be surprised if it did.

What would be the argument for supporting median prices above 200k, if you will?

[c1ue]

Re: Sacramento housing down from 392K to 280K

Rick, Sac-town is one of the highest in the nation in foreclosures, the economy isn't that strong enough to support all the outlying subdivisions, it's basically a SF exurb, a lot of the homebuying activity was from SF speculators, the weather sucks there, I don't see any way that the median stays above 200k.

I agree with most of what is said here, but not the SF exurb one.

There are something like 60 miles of farmland between Sacramento and SF; this is subtracting 40+ miles of various towns and suburbs of both cities from the actual distance.

[merry]

Re: Sacramento housing down from 392K to 280K

Even though I've been a member here for a while, this is the first time I've felt like saying something...the weather isn't so bad here and I'd much rather live in Sacramento than L.A.

Yes, Sacramento is an exurb of the Bay Area--I know people who make that commute. But Sacramento is also the capitol and a major employer in the area.

I think prices will fall about 50% from the peak but I'm wondering about certain newer neighborhoods that are only half built out. There is a development in Roseville called West Park that is only partially built out, far from town, and right next to the solid waste recycling plant. Who would want to buy there? I think the entire thing should be returned to rice fields.

[Gordo]

Staggering 5,238 Cal properties sold at foreclosure auctions



Record number of CA houses go to foreclosure auctions


Potential bidders Monday as the list of homes is read on the steps of the Stanislaus County Courthouse.
Modesto Bee


By J.N. SBRANTI
jnsbranti@modbee.com
last updated: January 08, 2008 07:14:55 AM

Monday was a record-breaking day for foreclosures in California.

A staggering 5,238 properties were scheduled to be sold in auctions on courthouse steps across the state, including 145 in Stanislaus County.

"This is the single largest day ever for foreclosures," said Sean O'Toole, owner of ForeclosureRadar, which tracks mortgage defaults throughout the state.
By comparison, 400 to 500 auctions a day were scheduled statewide a year ago, O'Toole said. That average rose to about 2,500 per day by the end of 2007, but he said there's never been nearly as many auctions as happened Monday.
In Stanislaus County, for instance, about twice as many properties were scheduled for auction as normal, said Da-vid Absher, president of Dual Arch International, which does most of the foreclosure auctions in the county.
Absher said that during the past six months, typically 60 to 80 auctions were scheduled a day, but "the volume is mounting."
That's true statewide.
"January is going to set a very definite record in the number of California houses sold at foreclosure auctions," O'Toole warned. He said foreclosures throughout the state soared during 2007, and "all records were shattered for number of homes sold and for value (of mortgage defaults)."
O'Toole expects the number of scheduled foreclosure auctions to continue to climb in 2008.
Monday's auction list was so long primarily because it followed the two-week holiday season, O'Toole and Absher said.
"Some banks don't want to foreclose during Christmas," said O'Toole. He said many mortgage officials take time off during December, so they put off foreclosures until their return.
Nearly half of the Stanislaus County properties scheduled for auction Monday had their foreclosures postponed, mostly by mutual agreement between lenders and borrowers or because the homeowners filed for bankruptcy protection.
Such delays and postponements are common during the foreclosure process, which lasts a minimum of four months and can be drawn out more than one year. The process starts with the lender filing a "notice of default" to warn borrowers they are in jeopardy of losing their homes. That's followed by a "notice of trustee sale" that sets the auction date. The auction at the county courthouse is the final step.
Default, sale and auction no- tices are printed daily in The Bee's classified advertising section.
About 10 people showed up Monday to watch the auction in downtown Modesto, including a few who came with money to buy. But during the first 90 minutes, none of the auctioned homes attracted bids.
That means those lenders are stuck owning the properties they foreclosed on. Most of them, whose defaulted mortgages were issued mostly in 2005 or 2006, are owed more than the houses now are worth.
Another set of homes will face foreclosure auctions today and every weekday this month in Modesto and at courthouses across California.
Although an abundance of homes in all price ranges are facing foreclosure in the Northern San Joaquin Valley, fewer and fewer bids are being made at foreclosure auctions, Absher said.
"No one wants to buy this stuff because they don't know where the housing market's going," Absher said. "When the prices are continuing to slide down, how do you know you're getting a good deal?"
Antonio Lima was looking for a good deal at Monday's auction, but the Modesto house he came prepared to bid on had its foreclosure postponed. He's seen the inside of that home, and he's convinced it's a nice three-bedroom house.
That Norman Way property, however, has an outstanding mortgage of nearly $300,000.
"I know for sure they'll never sell it for that much," Lima said. He plans to make a lower-priced offer on the house through a real estate agent.
Another person at Monday's auction was Jeff Black of Oakdale, who came to see how much a neighbor's house would sell for. That foreclosure, too, was postponed.
"I don't know very much about this," Black said about foreclosure auctions. He said he'd be interested in buying the Valley Springs Drive home if he could get a good deal. "But the price posted (on the foreclosure notice) is more than I'm willing to pay."
Most people should be leery of bidding at a foreclosure auction, warned Absher: "For the average person, it's the most dangerous way to buy a house."
That's because houses bought on the courthouse steps are sold "as is" with no warranties and no title insurance. Buyers don't get to inspect the house before buying, and they don't get any guarantee that the property's title will be free from tax liens or additional mortgages.
Bidders must bring a cashier's check for the full purchase price to the auction and show it to the auctioneer before they are allowed to bid. And the minute bidding is done, the debt must be paid in full.
"The reality is, it's a very risky proposition for anyone," Absher said.
Bee staff writer J.N. Sbranti can be reached at jnsbranti@modbee.com or 578-2196.

Record number of CA houses go to foreclosure auctions (modbee.com)

[SeanO]

Re: 1000+ mass Cal. foreclosure sale

Thanks, Bill,for a truly shocking disclosure of the California foreclosure problem.

The 1000+ homes actually being sold at foreclosure are the tip of the iceberg. See below.

www.realtyflac.com/gateway_co.asp?accnt=64953&ItemID=2909

We've been seeing 12k+ homes go back to the bank a month at the CA foreclosure auctions for the last 3 months. We've already hit that number half way into January, including a single day which had 5,238 scheduled and over 2,000 sold with a loan value just north of $800M.

So the 1000+ home REDC auction that Bill referred to above is pretty insignificant in the overall picture here.

Also note that REDC does not hold foreclosure auctions despite their claims. It is a marketing event used by banks to try and offload homes that they took back at foreclosure auction when no one bid. Foreclosure auctions themselves must follow strict rules set out in the CA civil code.

Sean O'Toole
ForeclosureRadar.com

[touchring]

Re: Sacramento housing down from 392K to 280K

So, is the current crisis worst than the S&L of the early 90s? :confused:

I read that American banks wrote off 100 years of profits that time.

[Slimprofits]

Re: Sacramento housing down from 392K to 280K

Where can I find this information for Mendicino County?

The C.A.R. data tables do not have information for Mendocino, Shasta, Lake and Humboldt counties.

[SeanO]

Re: Sacramento housing down from 392K to 280K

So, is the current crisis worst than the S&L of the early 90s? :confused:

I read that American banks wrote off 100 years of profits that time.

In terms of number of houses foreclosed in CA, it is clearly far worse than the 90's, and far from over.

The affect on banks, however, is less clear as unlike the 90's most of these loans were securitized and sold, and hedged. So the risk is likely to fall into some places that most folks don't expect... like perhaps their money market account they think can't go down. Of course iTuliper's are not "most folks".

[SeanO]

Re: Sacramento housing down from 392K to 280K

Where can I find this information for Mendicino County?

The C.A.R. data tables do not have information for Mendocino, Shasta, Lake and Humboldt counties.

Median prices are essentially worthless. The problem is that prices can drop 20% across the board and you can still have the median price go up 10% because of the >mix< of what is actually selling. I think this has been especially true of the current market has we have tended to see the low end harder hit than the high end. So the mix has shifted upwards, while all prices have shifted downward in many areas, giving a false sense that prices haven't dropped much.

Zillow Zestimate histories are probably actually a better guage of price direction, because at least they take into account square footage and other basic property characteristics. But do note they don't have enough information on each particular house to provide numbers that you still won't often find quite off the mark.