OIL Lake!

[Mega]

[GRG55]

Re: OIL Lake!

My views about the mercurial MbS are scattered throughout this forum, but Saudi has always been a good source for "You Can't Make This Stuff Up".

http://www.itulip.com/forums/showthr...818#post313818

People continue to underestimate the US shale industry and the Permian Basin in particular.
As I have posted before, US shale is the closest thing the global oil industry has to "just-in-time" supply.

Crude prices are notoriously cyclical. Deeply cyclical. That's just a fact of life. And unlike large scale projects deep water offshore GoM, Africa or Brazil, in the tundra of Siberia or the deserts of Arabia, its very quick and easy to turn down the taps on US shale. And it's very quick and easy to turn up the taps too.

This downturn is severe because of the unprecedented, virus-induced smashing of worldwide petroleum demand. I am certain this means the deferment and cancellation of numerous, expensive, large-scale projects with long time-lines in politically difficult locations all over the world. Once those are shut down, development teams are disbanded and the newly unemployed skilled people depart it becomes extraordinarily difficult and expensive to re-start them in the future. As the oil industry goes through yet another re-balancing, as it emerges from this latest train-wreck the shale oil rigs will be back at work long before most international projects.

The overleveraged shale oil companies may go bankrupt but the assets aren't going away. Lower 48 shale is in a politically stable nation (well kinda stable, LOL) with the largest, deepest capital markets and a demonstrated ability to keep driving technological advances. Betting against it is betting against the USA...never good odds imo.

[shiny!]

Re: OIL Lake!

My views about the mercurial MbS are scattered throughout this forum, but Saudi has always been a good source for "You Can't Make This Stuff Up".

http://www.itulip.com/forums/showthr...818#post313818

People continue to underestimate the US shale industry and the Permian Basin in particular.
As I have posted before, US shale is the closest thing the global oil industry has to "just-in-time" supply.

Crude prices are notoriously cyclical. Deeply cyclical. That's just a fact of life. And unlike large scale projects deep water offshore GoM, Africa or Brazil, in the tundra of Siberia or the deserts of Arabia, its very quick and easy to turn down the taps on US shale. And it's very quick and easy to turn up the taps too.

This downturn is severe because of the unprecedented, virus-induced smashing of worldwide petroleum demand. I am certain this means the deferment and cancellation of numerous, expensive, large-scale projects with long time-lines in politically difficult locations all over the world. Once those are shut down, development teams are disbanded and the newly unemployed skilled people depart it becomes extraordinarily difficult and expensive to re-start them in the future. As the oil industry goes through yet another re-balancing, as it emerges from this latest train-wreck the shale oil rigs will be back at work long before most international projects.

The overleveraged shale oil companies may go bankrupt but the assets aren't going away. Lower 48 shale is in a politically stable nation (well kinda stable, LOL) with the largest, deepest capital markets and a demonstrated ability to keep driving technological advances. Betting against it is betting against the USA...never good odds imo.

From your lips to God's ear. Hanging on to my pipelines. Share prices are going back up. Now they're only down 50%!!!!!

[GRG55]

Re: OIL Lake!

From your lips to God's ear. Hanging on to my pipelines. Share prices are going back up. Now they're only down 50%!!!!!

Just be patient and collect the distributions!

[shiny!]

Re: OIL Lake!

Just be patient and collect the distributions!

Don't worry, I'm not selling. It sure has been a disappointing ride, though.

Had high hopes for "Blue Chips" EPD and MMP. EPD stayed stuck for about 4 years, then crashed by about 50%. MMP has gone nowhere but down since I bought it. SEP went largely nowhere, then got bought out. I broke even on SEP.

SHLX has been the absolute worst, what with share dilutions, then crashing 70% from what I paid for it. And I bought at a low! If I can ever get close to what I paid for it I'm selling SHLX.

PSXP alone grew in value. Before crashing, that is!

Distributions don't make up for so much lost capital but I'm hanging on for the long term... all the while hearing the drumbeat that the MLP model is dead.

[shiny!]

Re: OIL Lake!

All that aside, I really like commodities.

[Mega]

Re: OIL Lake!

[Mega]

Re: OIL Lake!

110% agree about Shale, its almost like a light switch........