Airbone Bloodbath

[shiny!]

Re: Airbone Bloodbath

Zerohedge is reporting that Berkshire Hathaway just sold their entire stake of airline holdings.

[GRG55]

Re: Airbone Bloodbath

Zerohedge is reporting that Berkshire Hathaway just sold their entire stake of airline holdings.

Over the decades Berkshire's relationship with airlines hasn't been a happy one. I thought he swore off owning airlines after the USAir debacle. Apparently not.

[lakedaemonian]

Re: Airbone Bloodbath

Over the decades Berkshire's relationship with airlines hasn't been a happy one. I thought he swore off owning airlines after the USAir debacle. Apparently not.

NetJets subsidiary of BRK might be the only exception, and a potentially more lucrative one at that.

The wealthy still need to fly in their private bubbles.

[GRG55]

Re: Airbone Bloodbath

NetJets subsidiary of BRK might be the only exception, and a potentially more lucrative one at that.

The wealthy still need to fly in their private bubbles.

Not just the wealthy but corporations too.

The work-from-home meme is getting a lot of overblown press right now. Not everything in business can be accomplished by locked up plebs using laptops on their kitchen tables.

The private charter business is going gangbusters right now.

[Mega]

Re: Airbone Bloodbath

Yes, your seeing the Future................... TODAY!
For inner & outer party members life will get much better, roads free of traffic plenty of parking.

Want to go on a flight?
No problem, nice TSA people (mass unemployment means they can pick the best people) lovely staff, parking at the airport no trouble.

Flight will be a LOT more expensive, but you fly with a better class of people....

Mike

[jk]

Re: Airbone Bloodbath

Yes, your seeing the Future................... TODAY!
For inner & outer party members life will get much better, roads free of traffic plenty of parking.

Want to go on a flight?
No problem, nice TSA people (mass unemployment means they can pick the best people) lovely staff, parking at the airport no trouble.

Flight will be a LOT more expensive, but you fly with a better class of people....

Mike

this mostly sounds accurate imo.
not sure about how expensive the flights will be, though. charter, of course, is very, very expensive. the majors- delta, american, united, southwest- will have to charge more with fewer flights. otoh, there will be a lot of perfectly functional grounded airplanes sitting around, waiting for some 21st century freddie laker to pick some up for a song, buy cheap jet fuel and start another cut-rate competitor.

btw, mike, i really appreciate your frequent references to inner and outer party members. as a practicing medical professional i am definitely a member of the outer party, and it's fitting to remind me of that from time to time.

[GRG55]

Re: Airbone Bloodbath

this mostly sounds accurate imo.
not sure about how expensive the flights will be, though. charter, of course, is very, very expensive. the majors- delta, american, united, southwest- will have to charge more with fewer flights. otoh, there will be a lot of perfectly functional grounded airplanes sitting around, waiting for some 21st century freddie laker to pick some up for a song, buy cheap jet fuel and start another cut-rate competitor.

btw, mike, i really appreciate your frequent references to inner and outer party members. as a practicing medical professional i am definitely a member of the outer party, and it's fitting to remind me of that from time to time.

A large, somewhat permanent reduction in passenger traffic seems quite likely for (lack of) personal disposable income, health risk and corporate cost control reasons. In the USA, Europe and a few other developed country locations I expect people will drive their families in a road vehicle longer distances than we have in recent years, to avoid using a scheduled air carrier (e.g. change the way we holiday, how we travel to see the grandparents and even how we do sales calls on customers).

How the airlines respond to that is uncertain:

• Do the mainlines go "upscale" and focus on a quasi-charter type of service catering to the higher margin business and high net-worth hordes?
• Even if there is a surplus of airplanes and qualified labour, are discount or regional airlines going to have to run Boeing 777 aircraft on short haul routes to achieve the minimum spacing requirements between passengers?
• Is light aircraft general aviation going to see a resurgence as small private and charter aircraft are used to access the smaller, regional airports that people might prefer to avoid having to transit through JFK, Atlanta, Chicago, etc.?
• Will we see a recovery in air traffic in developing nations with poor road infrastructure faster than we see recovery in continental North America or Europe (e.g. out of necessity in India, SE Asia)?

https://calgaryherald.com/news/calga...worse-to-come/

Calgary airport traffic takes nearly 50 per cent nosedive amid pandemic with worse to come

Author of the article:
Bill Kaufmann
Publishing date:
4 days ago

COVID-19 headwinds forced passenger traffic at Calgary International Airport to plummet by 46 per cent in March.

But a spokesman for the Calgary Airport Authority said those were high-flying days compared to April and what’s to come in the following months, with flights at nearly a standstill.

“The numbers will show an over 90 per cent decrease for April, there are many days we’re down 98 per cent,” Reid Fiest said Wednesday...

...A predictable blow was the demise of direct Calgary to Beijing flights that were to resume on a seasonal basis this spring, said Fiest.

For now, the airport is forecasting a 60 per cent drop in traffic for 2020 compared with 2019, which was a record year with 18 million people streaming through the airport...

[Mega]

Re: Airbone Bloodbath

Hmmm Interesting ....State baleout if they agree to "New GREEN rules"....

Mike

[Mega]

Re: Airbone Bloodbath

[shiny!]

Re: Airbone Bloodbath

A large, somewhat permanent reduction in passenger traffic seems quite likely for (lack of) personal disposable income, health risk and corporate cost control reasons. In the USA, Europe and a few other developed country locations I expect people will drive their families in a road vehicle longer distances than we have in recent years, to avoid using a scheduled air carrier (e.g. change the way we holiday, how we travel to see the grandparents and even how we do sales calls on customers).

How the airlines respond to that is uncertain:

• Do the mainlines go "upscale" and focus on a quasi-charter type of service catering to the higher margin business and high net-worth hordes?
• Even if there is a surplus of airplanes and qualified labour, are discount or regional airlines going to have to run Boeing 777 aircraft on short haul routes to achieve the minimum spacing requirements between passengers?
• Is light aircraft general aviation going to see a resurgence as small private and charter aircraft are used to access the smaller, regional airports that people might prefer to avoid having to transit through JFK, Atlanta, Chicago, etc.?
• Will we see a recovery in air traffic in developing nations with poor road infrastructure faster than we see recovery in continental North America or Europe (e.g. out of necessity in India, SE Asia)?

https://calgaryherald.com/news/calga...worse-to-come/

Calgary airport traffic takes nearly 50 per cent nosedive amid pandemic with worse to come

Author of the article:
Bill Kaufmann
Publishing date:
4 days ago

COVID-19 headwinds forced passenger traffic at Calgary International Airport to plummet by 46 per cent in March.

But a spokesman for the Calgary Airport Authority said those were high-flying days compared to April and what’s to come in the following months, with flights at nearly a standstill.

“The numbers will show an over 90 per cent decrease for April, there are many days we’re down 98 per cent,” Reid Fiest said Wednesday...

...A predictable blow was the demise of direct Calgary to Beijing flights that were to resume on a seasonal basis this spring, said Fiest.

For now, the airport is forecasting a 60 per cent drop in traffic for 2020 compared with 2019, which was a record year with 18 million people streaming through the airport...

You're forgetting jetpacks. I want a jetpack! The Jetsons said I'd have one by now.

[jk]

Re: Airbone Bloodbath

A large, somewhat permanent reduction in passenger traffic seems quite likely for (lack of) personal disposable income, health risk and corporate cost control reasons. In the USA, Europe and a few other developed country locations I expect people will drive their families in a road vehicle longer distances than we have in recent years, to avoid using a scheduled air carrier (e.g. change the way we holiday, how we travel to see the grandparents and even how we do sales calls on customers).

How the airlines respond to that is uncertain:

• Do the mainlines go "upscale" and focus on a quasi-charter type of service catering to the higher margin business and high net-worth hordes?
• Even if there is a surplus of airplanes and qualified labour, are discount or regional airlines going to have to run Boeing 777 aircraft on short haul routes to achieve the minimum spacing requirements between passengers?
• Is light aircraft general aviation going to see a resurgence as small private and charter aircraft are used to access the smaller, regional airports that people might prefer to avoid having to transit through JFK, Atlanta, Chicago, etc.?
• Will we see a recovery in air traffic in developing nations with poor road infrastructure faster than we see recovery in continental North America or Europe (e.g. out of necessity in India, SE Asia)?

seating arrangements will have to be totally changed, american, for example, has progressively increased the number of seats per plane by reducing pitch and having thinner seatbacks. they will have to do a 180o.

whereas the prior model has been to have as many people on board as possible, the new model will have to be to maximize revenue per passenger with a limited number of passengers per flight.

all business class with current business class prices might be too expensive to fill those seats. current "premium economy" prices, or higher, will probably become a minimum. i can imagine seat layouts resembling those of private planes, but on a larger scale, with isolated individual or paired seats at the window positions, every other row [vs current layouts]. a much classier but much more expensive proposition. if they don't want to invest in reconfiguring their plane seating again, they could just seat people in singles or pairs at the windows, every other row with other seats left empty.

this means roughly 2-5 empty seats per occupied seat. fares would have to be roughly 3.5-4x current levels for revenues to be unchanged.

the age of mass air transportation is over, barring an effective vaccine.

[Mega]

Re: Airbone Bloodbath

They have the Vaccine, but that's not the point "They" will have had a "Cull" of non-flag carries .....then those whom get a bale out will be told to obey the "New Green order"......Plane flight will become expensive again. I guess the biggest thing I see is the NO A 380's flying past my office window. To be replaced by a full A 220's.

Mike

[GRG55]

Re: Airbone Bloodbath

seating arrangements will have to be totally changed, american, for example, has progressively increased the number of seats per plane by reducing pitch and having thinner seatbacks. they will have to do a 180o.

whereas the prior model has been to have as many people on board as possible, the new model will have to be to maximize revenue per passenger with a limited number of passengers per flight.

all business class with current business class prices might be too expensive to fill those seats. current "premium economy" prices, or higher, will probably become a minimum. i can imagine seat layouts resembling those of private planes, but on a larger scale, with isolated individual or paired seats at the window positions, every other row [vs current layouts]. a much classier but much more expensive proposition. if they don't want to invest in reconfiguring their plane seating again, they could just seat people in singles or pairs at the windows, every other row with other seats left empty.

this means roughly 2-5 empty seats per occupied seat. fares would have to be roughly 3.5-4x current levels for revenues to be unchanged.

the age of mass air transportation is over, barring an effective vaccine.

2-5 empty seats per occupied seat and fares 4X current economy seems like "all business class"...

[Mega]

Re: Airbone Bloodbath

A220 long ranger small plane will be winner here....bye bye 777/747/A380

[GRG55]

Re: Airbone Bloodbath

A220 long ranger small plane will be winner here....bye bye 777/747/A380

The 4-engine A340 is a goner as well.

The 777 is NOT going away. It'll be the heavy workhorse freighter replacing the aging 747-400s and the last of the DC-10s/MD-11s.
The 787 will be the long haul passenger winner, except for the "all Airbus" operators with A350s.

The A220 is a single aisle midget jet only good for regional flights. It's the jet Airbus bought from Bombardier. It's way too small to compete with any of the twin-aisle, long haul planes, so I have no idea what you are thinking Mike.