GRG55: Oil Crashing

[GRG55]

Re: GRG55: Oil Crashing

That's a sobering thing to realize. Even the global oil market - taken as a whole - is too small and weak to withstand the Wall Street boy's if they decide to pillage it.

They would sell their own grandmothers if it was a profitable trade. Then develop a derivative to short grandmothers with leverage. After which they would offer to buy them back...but only if they got warrants with a cheap strike as part of the deal.

[shiny!]

Re: GRG55: Oil Crashing

That's a sobering thing to realize. Even the global oil market - taken as a whole - is too small and weak to withstand the Wall Street boy's if they decide to pillage it.

How can we invest in anything under these circumstances? I don't fancy being Charlie Brown when it's the Wall St boys being Lucy holding the football. There's physical gold, but what can it buy that they can't "run the table in their favor"?

[Techdread]

Re: GRG55: Oil Crashing

CARBON FREE, AT LAST!

Of course, since it will be impossible to extract, ship, and store oil at negative valuations, we'll have to go back to a preindustrial civilization where its biggest use will be to line the hulls of our seagoing sailing vessels. That is after we settle down following the mass die off of the population due to global famine from the loss of chemical fertilizers. But hey, you know what that means?

Yesss! ZERO POPULATION GROWTH! Another UN/Club of Rome goal achieved.

Oh Corona, how we thank you! These lockdowns are a heck of a thing, no? Ain't unintended consequences a bitch?

Yes it will be worth it to get climate change under control, However I fear a Baby boom now that people are on lock down.

Socialism is the natural state groups of people first organise into, we lost our way when cereals twisted mankind to do its bidding.
It's great seeing right wing people squirm when a little hardship comes their way.

[Mega]

Re: GRG55: Oil Crashing

[GRG55]

Re: GRG55: Oil Crashing

Yes it will be worth it to get climate change under control, However I fear a Baby boom now that people are on lock down.

Socialism is the natural state groups of people first organise into, we lost our way when cereals twisted mankind to do its bidding.
It's great seeing right wing people squirm when a little hardship comes their way.

I wonder what we should call this time?

How about "The Great Leap Forward"?

[Woodsman]

Re: GRG55: Oil Crashing

Yes it will be worth it to get climate change under control, However I fear a Baby boom now that people are on lock down.

Socialism is the natural state groups of people first organise into, we lost our way when cereals twisted mankind to do its bidding.
It's great seeing right wing people squirm when a little hardship comes their way.

So how many right wingers and fence sitters do you think it will take to do it, dread? You'll have a fair amount of folks whose loyalties are suspect, even though they might not evidence any overt political leanings. To make it stick and avoid counter-revolutionary reactions, an example will have to be made of some in order to motivate the correct attitude among the center.

How many do you think will have to die to achieve this dream you've been nurturing, dread? In the 20th Century, it took about 160 million dead:

65 million in the People's Republic of China
20 million in the Soviet Union
2 million in Cambodia
2 million in North Korea
1.7 million in Ethiopia
1.5 million in Afghanistan
1 million in the Eastern Bloc
1 million in Vietnam
150,000 in Latin America
10,000 deaths resulting from actions of the international Communist movement and Communist parties not in power

I expect it will take a fair more to achieve socialism, zero population growth, and zero carbon in 21st Century socialism, considering there are so many more people about. Maybe a 1/3 of the human population? Probably the majority of white people, yeah? Since they have it coming anyway. And while this economic catastrophe will certainly take out plenty, but not near enough. It's a bit indiscriminate too, so you'll end up losing a sizable number of potential comrades. And of course, the right and center will likely organize political resistance and then move on to physical resistance once they get wise to the end game. So you'll have a fairly limited amount of time to hit your stride and reach critical mass. Yeah, that's a tough nut you got there.

So how many?

[globaleconomicollaps]

Re: GRG55: Oil Crashing

How can we invest in anything under these circumstances? I don't fancy being Charlie Brown when it's the Wall St boys being Lucy holding the football. There's physical gold, but what can it buy that they can't "run the table in their favor"?

That was a little hard to follow. I buy gold as an investment. That means that it sits in my bank's vault for years until I need to spend it on, for instance, a 20lb bag of rice. The rice is for consumption, not investment. Did you intend to flip gold bars and buy oil futures? The white house seems to have some kind of obsession with "hoarding". They are opposed to it. They will in fact seize your goods if they detect hoarding ... or for no reason at all:

https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2020...virus-ppe.html

That word hording is typically used in conjunction with the word Gold. You might recall that the Federal government has a history of liberating your gold:

On April 6, 1933, The New York Times wrote under the headline "Hoarding of Gold", "The Executive Order issued by the President yesterday amplifies and particularizes his earlier warnings against hoarding. On March 6, taking advantage of a wartime statute that had not been repealed, he issued Presidential Proclamation 2039 that forbade the hoarding 'of gold or silver coin or bullion or currency', under penalty of $10,000 and/or up to five to ten years imprisonment."

So, to sum up, (1) Wall street will work it's magic to liberate your gold and (2) the federal government will liberate your gold, or anything they damn well please.

[Techdread]

Re: GRG55: Oil Crashing

I wonder what we should call this time?

How about "The Great Leap Forward"?

That was man made, this one happened because of populism.
How's that America First doctrine helping the US?

[Woodsman]

Re: GRG55: Oil Crashing

That was man made, this one happened because of populism.
How's that America First doctrine helping the US?

Pretty good, all things considered. The President just announced an executive order terminating all immigration into the United States. He says it's temporary, but since it's the most popular issue among likely voters it will be tough to roll back. Score one for populism.

But back to your dream of socialism. How many people do you think it will take?

[Techdread]

Re: GRG55: Oil Crashing

So how many right wingers and fence sitters do you think it will take to do it, dread? You'll have a fair amount of folks whose loyalties are suspect, even though they might not evidence any overt political leanings. To make it stick and avoid counter-revolutionary reactions, an example will have to be made of some in order to motivate the correct attitude among the center.

How many do you think will have to die to achieve this dream you've been nurturing, dread? In the 20th Century, it took about 160 million dead:

65 million in the People's Republic of China
20 million in the Soviet Union
2 million in Cambodia
2 million in North Korea
1.7 million in Ethiopia
1.5 million in Afghanistan
1 million in the Eastern Bloc
1 million in Vietnam
150,000 in Latin America
10,000 deaths resulting from actions of the international Communist movement and Communist parties not in power

I expect it will take a fair more to achieve socialism, zero population growth, and zero carbon in 21st Century socialism, considering there are so many more people about. Maybe a 1/3 of the human population? Probably the majority of white people, yeah? Since they have it coming anyway. And while this economic catastrophe will certainly take out plenty, but not near enough. It's a bit indiscriminate too, so you'll end up losing a sizable number of potential comrades. And of course, the right and center will likely organize political resistance and then move on to physical resistance once they get wise to the end game. So you'll have a fairly limited amount of time to hit your stride and reach critical mass. Yeah, that's a tough nut you got there.

So how many?

Yawn, Yawn.... it won't take any deaths, i do not get your obsession with deaths I agree with lock-downs to lower the deaths of mainly elders.

Society after this shock will take a long look at itself and work out what really matters.

I suspect more leisure time for people, more home working, for Americans you will join the Universal Health care club.
Socialism is coming, the world is looking at the US and it does not like what it sees, however it won't be the socialism you are thinking.
To overcome this crisis and future pandemics we will have to have more cooperation between nation states, citizens will have to give up some freedoms, that can be mitigated by anonymising data & putting in laws into place that penalises companies, institutions that discriminate or abuse the data.

Ideally the lock down should last a few more months, but limited opening up will show when people do not starve, the thick layer of Jobs we have that are not really needed.

[Woodsman]

Re: GRG55: Oil Crashing

Yawn, Yawn.... it won't take any deaths, i do not get your obsession with deaths I agree with lock-downs to lower the deaths of mainly elders.

Society after this shock will take a long look at itself and work out what really matters.

I suspect more leisure time for people, more home working, for Americans you will join the Universal Health care club.
Socialism is coming, the world is looking at the US and it does not like what it sees, however it won't be the socialism you are thinking.
To overcome this crisis and future pandemics we will have to have more cooperation between nation states, citizens will have to give up some freedoms, that can be mitigated by anonymising data & putting in laws into place that penalises companies, institutions that discriminate or abuse the data.

Ideally the lock down should last a few more months, but limited opening up will show when people do not starve, the thick layer of Jobs we have that are not really needed.

Man, and here I thought you were a player. But like so many armchair socialists, you turn out to be a poseur looking to live off of someone else's work so you can enjoy your leisure. How positively Marxist of you, dread. Who's your Engels, then. Do you have a sugar daddy like Karl, or is the dole enough for you?

Socialism is coming, yeah. Just without any effort from you, right?

[GRG55]

Re: GRG55: Oil Crashing

That was man made, this one happened because of populism.
How's that America First doctrine helping the US?

This virus is manmade too my friend. And populism had nothing to do with it.

As for America First, it seems to getting competition from China First.
But even the Chinese don't like what they see of the latter so far (given how much effort they put into getting their money, their families and themselves out of China and to the USA).

[globaleconomicollaps]

Re: GRG55: Oil Crashing

has anybody see this pattern before?

It looks like a heart attack.

[thriftyandboringinohio]

Re: GRG55: Oil Crashing

has anybody see this pattern before?......It looks like a heart attack.

I've seen it in physical reality.
That's the output response of an automatically controlled system that's poorly designed and poorly tuned, oscillating and hunting and overcorrecting.
It's overpowered and underdamped, making it 'twitchy". It's a textbook example of instability in a control system.

If a junior engineer handed me that, I'd tell her to:

- reduce the gross motive power, it's way too big for the load
- adjust your PID controller to greatly reduce the gain on the proportional control
- adjust your PID controller to significantly increase the gain on the derivative control
- institute an anti-windup strategy for the integral control during reversals of direction.

[Techdread]

Re: GRG55: Oil Crashing

Man, and here I thought you were a player. But like so many armchair socialists, you turn out to be a poseur looking to live off of someone else's work so you can enjoy your leisure. How positively Marxist of you, dread. Who's your Engels, then. Do you have a sugar daddy like Karl, or is the dole enough for you?

Socialism is coming, yeah. Just without any effort from you, right?

We all live off the work of those long departed.... mainly physicists, engineers.

Whats the dole? I wish to make some effort towards the goal of ending resource scarcity, but fear my schooling has put me at a disadvantage.
But what i do know is capitalism is just a phase mankind has had to go through because its alone, does not have the correct analysis tools to allocate resources.

But my cohort are changing that everyday and we will make Utopia or wipe out humanity trying, the geeks will inherit the earth, solar system etc....