THe British Tell China to F*ck off!

[Woodsman]

Re: THe British Tell China to F*ck off!

No-one I know of said it was going to kill us all so don't be so obtuse.

I'm more reflex, when you get down to brass tacks. Come on, dread. Lighten up. Laugh a little. A little at me, a little at yourself, a little of the absurdity of this entire episode.

So put your mind to this compare and contrast exercise by the ever so even-handed Dr. John. It's "a tale of two ships" that just might give us the best view of the likely R and CFR for this clusterfart. Not perfect, but certainly better than the out of the orifice numbers we're getting from WHO, Hopkins, and the usual suspects as reported by the various national entities (in my uniformed opinion, of course).

And for what it's worth:

The actual number of people with SARS-CoV-2 infection or people that already passed through COVID-19 early-stage or without symptoms is several dozen times higher than the public numbers show.

This is primarily due to the approaches and scope of testing. The public numbers have little to do with science. This is, to a greater extent, either media or politically motivated data. You should also consider the factor of a special picture of the course of the disease, which affects medical statistics (RKI Epidemiological bulletins).

Accordingly, the real mortality rate from SARS-CoV-2 is 25-60 times less than the figures presented to us by MSM and a number of governments.

The number of people with SARS-CoV-2 virus, but without the COVID-19 disease or with a mild form of the disease, according to various estimates, ranges from 85% to 95%. This group, as a rule, does not fall into official statistics, as it is not tested, not hospitalized, and does not seek medical help.

The negative consequences for life and health of people from ill-conceived social measures can at times surpass the threat posed by SARS-CoV-2. There has been a significant increase in the mortality from diseases unrelated to SARS-CoV-2 already.

Countries, whose leadership works closely with scientists, consistently and quickly responds to changes in the situation and the emergence of new data, will receive a huge advantage in the post-COVID-19 world.

The current actions of politicians in a number of countries are difficult to explain with anything other than incompetence or deliberate actions to achieve their personal/clan political ambitions or promote interests of external actors.

SARS-COV-2 MORTALITY IS DISTORTED

[Mega]

Re: THe British Tell China to F*ck off!

[Mega]

Re: THe British Tell China to F*ck off!

[Mega]

Re: THe British Tell China to F*ck off!

[Techdread]

Re: THe British Tell China to F*ck off!

Did you even listen to the video? or are a you just brain dead.

A small sample size on the warship a CFR rate of 0.16% 1 dead, 5 hospitalised 0.83% of healthy sailors and you think governments overreacted?

If that played out in the population at large our hospitals would be overrun with no capacity to treat other ailments.

What he says is true we need better testing to isolate those with the virus so the spread can be halted... that was his words.

I think better testing, mandatory face masks when in public, isolate the vulnerable. The WHO are correct Test, TEST, TEST!

[Woodsman]

Re: THe British Tell China to F*ck off!

Did you even listen to the video? or are a you just brain dead...The WHO are correct Test, TEST, TEST!

Braindead? Okay, Braindread. Have it your way.

Hey, have you ever put your considerable intellect and intuition to work on how come we can't seem to get this TEST, TEST, TEST! thingie off the tarmac? The goldurn thing won't move an inch!

The braindead among us are starting to wonder if there's more than garden variety incompetence going on. Because in the absence of reliable information, the ever present sense of dread that one might be struck down at any moment has a tendency to short circuit rational thinking and make us braindeaders susceptible to manipulation and control. Sort of like the perennial "orange alerts" of yore?

Not to say that would ever happen here in the land of the free or home of the brave or our to John Bull cousins in the UK, no never never no, perish the thought! But still, it is curious how they've managed to provide comprehensive testing in places like the tony zip codes of Philadelphia and the posh enclave of Fisher Island, but can't seem to manage it elsewhere.

[Techdread]

Re: THe British Tell China to F*ck off!

Braindead? Okay, Braindread. Have it your way.

Hey, have you ever put your considerable intellect and intuition to work on how come we can't seem to get this TEST, TEST, TEST! thingie off the tarmac? The goldurn thing won't move an inch!

The braindead among us are starting to wonder if there's more than garden variety incompetence going on. Because in the absence of reliable information, the ever present sense of dread that one might be struck down at any moment has a tendency to short circuit rational thinking and make us braindeaders susceptible to manipulation and control. Sort of like the perennial "orange alerts" of yore?

Not to say that would ever happen here in the land of the free or home of the brave or our to John Bull cousins in the UK, no never never no, perish the thought! But still, it is curious how they've managed to provide comprehensive testing in places like the tony zip codes of Philadelphia and the posh enclave of Fisher Island, but can't seem to manage it elsewhere.

And that's the avenue people should going down, why are we not ramping up tests for everyone so that people can go back to work.
New York already has a CFR of 0.15% for the whole of its population and has everybody there caught it? are there going to be no more deaths?

Saying the governments have overreacted, and we should just open up without a plan would tank urban centres and the wider economy with it.

[Woodsman]

Re: THe British Tell China to F*ck off!

And that's the avenue people should going down, why are we not ramping up tests for everyone so that people can go back to work...

And what, pray sir, is your reckoning as to why this most sensible and felicitous course has not been charted forthwith by our navigators?

Hark! Sense ye that rustling from yon woody grove? Could such rough beast as might lurk behind that verdant curtain come devour us all? Opportunity, is its name. So insatiable its hunger, I fear the whole world would not suffice to tame its appetite!

UN climate change fund calls coronavirus an 'opportunity' to re-shape the world

The UN-funded financial arm of the Paris Agreement has labelled the killer coronavirus an “opportunity” to raise funds for climate change action and “relaunch economies on low-emission, climate-resilient trajectories”.

[jk]

Re: THe British Tell China to F*ck off!

study by stanford docs of santa clara county showed 3% of the population had antibodies indicating they had had the virus. study of 1 colorado county [forgot which and by whom] showed 2%. need about 70% for some useful herd immunity.

the wealthy have indeed gotten more access to testing than have others. an unpleasant non-surprise in today's america.

but i wonder why test kits are in such short supply in the first place. i wonder if maybe we played down the threat in the early months when we should have ramped up test kit production. just askin'.


Publication date:
11 April 2019

The National Institutes of Health’s budget would drop 12 percent to $34 billion under the Trump administration’s proposal for fiscal year 2020, rolling back most of the $5 billion increase Congress has provided to the agency over the past two years.



of course congress has been over-riding these suggestions to cut, but i'd prefer if we could agree, even at the highest levels of gov't, that research into public health is a public good, properly funded by gov't.

unfortunately, the tests themselves are not great. last i knew they had a 30% false negative rate. so we need more accurate tests before it's REALLY worth mass production. unfortunately we can't order scientific progress from amazon with 2 day delivery. maybe we should be supporting strongly funding for nih. this country used to support a lot of basic research, research with no immediate commercial application. somehow the spinoffs did wonderful things for our economy. see, for example, all the developments that arose from the apollo missions.

we also have a problem with antibody detection- lots of prototype tests floating around with little in the way of good evidence both of their accuracy and their utility. maybe we needed some kind of early warning system about pandemics, a high level office with a mandate to prepare for such an eventuality, with presence even in foreign countries in which such pandemics might originate. didn't we have that not long ago?

everyone talks about herd immunity, if only we could get together in e.g. rallies. but we don't even know if having had covid-19 confers any immunity whatsoever. see this article, it's really well-written and informative
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/13/o...-immunity.html

[shiny!]

Re: THe British Tell China to F*ck off!

study by stanford docs of santa clara county showed 3% of the population had antibodies indicating they had had the virus. study of 1 colorado county [forgot which and by whom] showed 2%. need about 70% for some useful herd immunity.

the wealthy have indeed gotten more access to testing than have others. an unpleasant non-surprise in today's america.

but i wonder why test kits are in such short supply in the first place. i wonder if maybe we played down the threat in the early months when we should have ramped up test kit production. just askin'.


Publication date:
11 April 2019

The National Institutes of Health’s budget would drop 12 percent to $34 billion under the Trump administration’s proposal for fiscal year 2020, rolling back most of the $5 billion increase Congress has provided to the agency over the past two years.



of course congress has been over-riding these suggestions to cut, but i'd prefer if we could agree, even at the highest levels of gov't, that research into public health is a public good, properly funded by gov't.

unfortunately, the tests themselves are not great. last i knew they had a 30% false negative rate. so we need more accurate tests before it's REALLY worth mass production. unfortunately we can't order scientific progress from amazon with 2 day delivery. maybe we should be supporting strongly funding for nih. this country used to support a lot of basic research, research with no immediate commercial application. somehow the spinoffs did wonderful things for our economy. see, for example, all the developments that arose from the apollo missions.

we also have a problem with antibody detection- lots of prototype tests floating around with little in the way of good evidence both of their accuracy and their utility. maybe we needed some kind of early warning system about pandemics, a high level office with a mandate to prepare for such an eventuality, with presence even in foreign countries in which such pandemics might originate. didn't we have that not long ago?

everyone talks about herd immunity, if only we could get together in e.g. rallies. but we don't even know if having had covid-19 confers any immunity whatsoever. see this article, it's really well-written and informative
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/13/o...-immunity.html

Thanks, jk. This is all stuff I've been wondering about.

w/ regards to 30% false negatives, do you mean that the number of people who actually have it is 30% higher than the tests indicate? Wouldn't that bring us closer to herd immunity than the 3% exposure that the WHO is claiming?

[jk]

Re: THe British Tell China to F*ck off!

Thanks, jk. This is all stuff I've been wondering about.

w/ regards to 30% false negatives, do you mean that the number of people who actually have it is 30% higher than the tests indicate? Wouldn't that bring us closer to herd immunity than the 3% exposure that the WHO is claiming?

30% false negative means that if you indeed have the virus there is a 70% chance the test will confirm it, but a 30% chance the test will falsely indicate that you don't have the virus.

i don't recall coming across anything about the false positive rate.

[shiny!]

Re: THe British Tell China to F*ck off!

30% false negative means that if you indeed have the virus there is a 70% chance the test will confirm it, but a 30% chance the test will falsely indicate that you don't have the virus.

i don't recall coming across anything about the false positive rate.

Got it, thanks.

Got an email from a very close friend across town. Her adult son who lives with her is showing symptoms. They just got back home from getting him tested. Will know in a few days. She's a basket case over this.

[jk]

Re: THe British Tell China to F*ck off!

Got it, thanks.

Got an email from a very close friend across town. Her adult son who lives with her is showing symptoms. They just got back home from getting him tested. Will know in a few days. She's a basket case over this.

the problem with a false negative rate as high as 30% is that if your friend's son tests negative, there's a significant chance is that he still might have the virus. the saving grace is that it won't make any difference, since we don't know how to treat it anyway. if he's a young man the odds are very good he'll have a very mild case of whatever it is.

the real risk is to your friend, who is a generation older. if she catches it, as will likely happen, there's a greater chance of serious illness.

[shiny!]

Re: THe British Tell China to F*ck off!

the problem with a false negative rate as high as 30% is that if your friend's son tests negative, there's a significant chance is that he still might have the virus. the saving grace is that it won't make any difference, since we don't know how to treat it anyway. if he's a young man the odds are very good he'll have a very mild case of whatever it is.

the real risk is to your friend, who is a generation older. if she catches it, as will likely happen, there's a greater chance of serious illness.

Agreed.

They're hoping it's just the flu, although flu cases seem to be be way down due to stay-at-home orders. I don't know if they tested him for that. My friend is in very poor health so like you say, I'm more worried about her than I am for her son.