After The Virus - What Next?

[shiny!]

Re: After the Virus? Cognitive Dissonance

lakedaemoniun, jk, GRG55... thank you so much. This is very helpful, and very timely.

My dear cousin has two beautiful kids in college. Her son is studying veterinary medicine at Texas A&M. He'll probably be fine there. Her daughter just started attending a little brick-and-morter liberal arts college in NY last fall ... the kind you all concur might go belly-up before she graduates. I'm going to refer her to this conversation.

[GRG55]

Re: After The Virus - What Next?

A thread to encourage some informed debate about where the world is headed and what will it look like and function like, once COVID-19 inevitably declines, the lockdowns are lifted and our economies are re-started again.

By "informed" I mean something more than just a raw opinion. Support what you post with some cogent arguments and facts (example at the end below).

Some possible questions, in no particular order, that may be of interest to seed the discussion:

...

3. Will there be a material change in supply chains (more local production compared to outsourcing "everything" to China), or will the talk only last for the duration of the current crisis, after which old habits and existing installed products uction capacity gets restarted as the quickest and most economical/efficient way to get the global economy functioning again?

4. Will China become a global pariah for some time for its handling of C-19, and will that affect its economy and growth in any material way? Or will it's systematic buying off of developing nations and UN agencies continue to protect it from scrutiny and consequences?...

China. Doing what China does best. Exporting crap to the world (and denying it every step of the way). Not just a Fox News meme!

And when they aren't selling us garbage products, they send the planes back empty...and once again make up complete and utter lies and denials for why that happened.

The world should have locked down China the minute China admitted to locking down Wuhan. We are such warm-hearted, politically correct idiots.


https://www.wsj.com/articles/keep-sh...ut-11587682617


Keep Shoddy Chinese Medical Supplies Out

An embargo is the best defense against deadly defective masks, testing kits and ventilators.




https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-52092395

Coronavirus: Countries reject Chinese-made equipment



https://www.businessinsider.com/coro...y-china-2020-4

Spain is sending back faulty coronavirus tests to China that were supposed to be replacements for the first faulty batch



https://www.theglobeandmail.com/cana...o-meet-proper/

Canada says one million face masks from China failed to meet proper standards, won’t be sent to provinces



https://www.theglobeandmail.com/poli...thout-medical/

Two cargo planes return empty to Canada from China without medical supplies

[lakedaemonian]

Re: After the Virus? Cognitive Dissonance

scott galloway on post-corona higher ed:
https://www.profgalloway.com/post-corona-higher-ed

Scott Galloway seems to be taking a page out of Jeff Goldblum’s character in Jurassic Park, the bad boy rockstar professor.

And to be honest, you have to have substance/content to pull it off beyond the theatrics.

My only issue with his content is the need to apply a significant political filter.

He is a rabid anti-Trump advocate wearing political blinders.

I’m not a fan of Trump, but I’m also not falling into the “everything Trump is bad” crowd either.

The only other concern I have with him is his approach to big tech.

He advocates for breaking up Amazon & AWS to unlock shareholder value long term(which has merit).

But I think we also need a strategy that aligns US foreign policy with US business, but not in a Chiquita Banana War kind of way.

More like an appropriate US counter version of Chaebol, Keiretsu, and Chinese CCP/PLA BATH.

Super Platform(FAANG+ / BATH) application of Moore’s, Metcalfe’s, and Zipf’s Laws to geopolitics will become an entirely new field of study/strategy/utility(GeoDigital).

I think Scott Galloway can’t see beyond his political blinders to discuss it, or maybe he just can’t see it.

[Techdread]

Re: After The Virus - What Next?

I have read some of those links, and it tells a story of China not being able to meet demand..

Locking down China would have ONLY delayed the spread of the disease not contained it, and would Trump or Boris prepared their countries for the spread?

You can bash China as much as want, The reality is they are going to be a Super Power, while if the US does not raise its game will be a wayening one.

[globaleconomicollaps]

Re: After The Virus - What Next?

I have read some of those links, and it tells a story of China not being able to meet demand..

Locking down China would have ONLY delayed the spread of the disease not contained it, and would Trump or Boris prepared their countries for the spread?

You can bash China as much as want, The reality is they are going to be a Super Power, while if the US does not raise its game will be a waning one.

Doesn't it strike you as strange that the problem is a shortage of disposable paper masks and gowns? I am old enough to remember when hospitals used cloth protective equipment and laundered it daily. Why exactly can't the "developed world" make paper masks? It must be (a) rot at the core of the system or (b) malicious intent on the part of policy makers or (c) both. I'm leaning towards b right now. This is consistent with the chorus of learned mandarins telling us that a combination of vitamin C and quinine will kill us.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rN_YpFhdii4

[jpatter666]

Re: After The Virus - What Next?

I have read some of those links, and it tells a story of China not being able to meet demand..

Locking down China would have ONLY delayed the spread of the disease not contained it, and would Trump or Boris prepared their countries for the spread?

You can bash China as much as want, The reality is they are going to be a Super Power, while if the US does not raise its game will be a wayening one.

Japan was going to rule the world in the 80s. Then the EU was new bad boy. Now China. Tomorrow Brazil (kudos to anyone who gets that one...)

China is definitely a rising power, my question now is can they contain the now nearly inevitable internal issues (COVID, financial, repression, political instability) which are landing on it on rapid succession at the same time it's shredding its external reputation.

China will not have many friends at the end of this.

The US isn't covering itself in glory either, but the US has a reputation for sinking into the quicksand and subsequently successfully pulling itself out. China's (current) government has yet to prove this ability. We'll see.

[jpatter666]

Re: After The Virus - What Next?

Doesn't it strike you as strange that the problem is a shortage of disposable paper masks and gowns? I am old enough to remember when hospitals used cloth protective equipment and laundered it daily. Why exactly can't the "developed world" make paper masks? It most be (a) rot at the core of the system or (b) malicious intent on the part of policy makers or (c) both. I'm leaning towards b right now. This is consistent with the chorus of learned mandarins telling us that a combination of vitamin C and quinine will kill us.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rN_YpFhdii4

Also: https://marginalrevolution.com/margi...illing-us.html

[GRG55]

Re: After The Virus - What Next?

I have read some of those links, and it tells a story of China not being able to meet demand..

Locking down China would have ONLY delayed the spread of the disease not contained it, and would Trump or Boris prepared their countries for the spread?

You can bash China as much as want, The reality is they are going to be a Super Power, while if the US does not raise its game will be a wayening one.

Those links are a story of utter incompetence on the part of our governments. Chronic and repeated incompetence, after being captured by the financial interests in The City, Wall Street, Bay Street, etc., and falling under the captivating spell of the so-called "Chinese Miracle" and "BRICS" (think of it as the 21st century version of the earlier "New Economy").

China will be a "world power" in the same delusional way Nazi Germany wanted to be a world power. And more destructive. Much more destructive, as we have witnessed already (this is a nation that will shoot its own citizens). And we are doing a fabulous job helping it along the way. Not long from now shoddy shoes and off-gassing plasterboard will be the least of our problems.

Are you seriously arguing that China should NOT have been locked down? Once it stopped lying about it. Really?

What do you think the current locking down the economies of most of the world is about. Yes, "delaying the spread", "flattening the curve", whatever you want to call it. Too late. While China locked down Wuhan and would not allow travel to the rest of China it continued to allow flights out of Wuhan to other parts of the world. And we were stupid enough to receive them.

210 countries and territories around the world have confirmed cases, including the Faroes and Falklands. And now we are visiting upon humanity what may evolve into the greatest exercise in mass impoverishment and hunger short of a world war.

Canada shipped 16 tonnes of medical supplies to China when the virus first broke out there. What do we get in return? Defective crap, empty airplanes, hasslesfrom the authorities when our planes are on the ground in Shanghai (my kid brother is one of the 787 pilots who volunteered to do these flights) and two of our citizens held on trumped up charges of espionage in conditions no western nation would legally tolerate.

[shiny!]

Re: After The Virus - What Next?

Japan was going to rule the world in the 80s. Then the EU was new bad boy. Now China. Tomorrow Brazil (kudos to anyone who gets that one...)

China is definitely a rising power, my question now is can they contain the now nearly inevitable internal issues (COVID, financial, repression, political instability) which are landing on it on rapid succession at the same time it's shredding its external reputation.

China is also dealing with simultaneous plagues of African Swine Fever, H1N1 Swine Flu, H5N1 Bird Flu (60% fatality rate if it moves into humans) and Locusts. The swine fever is causing a protracted worldwide unavailability of NDT thyroid medication. If I wasn't one of those crazy preppers with a 2 year stock I'd be in serious trouble right now.

And their drinking water is so polluted, wastewater treatment so inadequate, it practically defies comprehension:

https://www.theguardian.com/global-d...ion-greenpeace

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Water_...ervice_quality

[jk]

Re: After The Virus - What Next?

Tomorrow Brazil

brazil is the country of the future, and always will be.

[Southernguy]

Re: After The Virus - What Next?

brazil is the country of the future, and always will be.

"Mais grande do mundo"

[shiny!]

Any thoughts on whether or not online academies for children will see a surge in popularity after this? It doesn't look like public brick-and-mortar schools are faring well as online home schools, not that they were all that functional before. Online academies are built for this.

'I just can't do this.' Frustrated parents giving up on home school

Suddenly involved in their childrens' assignments for the first time, a lot of parents must be wondering what is the point of all these ridiculous assignments? (All it really is, is a way to teach them conformity, keep them off the streets and out of the job market for as long as possible. And provide meals for kids whose parents can't afford food.)

Minus all the make-work fluff, the essentials of K-12 education could be compressed into a few years. Basically children need to learn solid reading, comprehension and math skills, high-level reasoning (a la Bloom's Taxonomy), and the tools and habits required for a lifetime of self-directed learning. It doesn't take 12 years to teach them that. For too many kids, even 12 years in the meatgrinder hasn't taught them that.

[Down Under]

Re: After The Virus - What Next?

While China locked down Wuhan and would not allow travel to the rest of China it continued to allow flights out of Wuhan to other parts of the world. And we were stupid enough to receive them.

210 countries and territories around the world have confirmed cases, including the Faroes and Falklands. And now we are visiting upon humanity what may evolve into the greatest exercise in mass impoverishment and hunger short of a world war.

Canada shipped 16 tonnes of medical supplies to China when the virus first broke out there. What do we get in return? Defective crap, empty airplanes, hassles from the authorities when our planes are on the ground in Shanghai (my kid brother is one of the 787 pilots who volunteered to do these flights) and two of our citizens held on trumped up charges of espionage in conditions no western nation would legally tolerate.

Thanks for posting this GRG; really helps to be informed about how China is really carrying on. I really enjoy, especially when I buy a gift for someone, if I can find something I like that is NOT made in China. Even if it's twice the price.

Australia has at least one case of a Chinese businessman here sending his employees out and buying up a stack of masks I think it was, and shipping them to China before the Australian government realised what had happened.

I think the more people who know about "While China locked down Wuhan and would not allow travel to the rest of China it continued to allow flights out of Wuhan to other parts of the world. And we were stupid enough to receive them.", the better.

To the best of my knowledge, this has not received widespread news coverage.

[jk]

Re: After The Virus - What Next?

While China locked down Wuhan and would not allow travel to the rest of China it continued to allow flights out of Wuhan to other parts of the world. And we were stupid enough to receive them.

is there information on how many of the people flying out of wuhan were foreign [i.e. non-chinese] nationals wanting to leave to return to their native countries? that is the one mitigating case i could think of.

[Down Under]

Re: After The Virus - What Next?

is there information on how many of the people flying out of wuhan were foreign [i.e. non-chinese] nationals wanting to leave to return to their native countries? that is the one mitigating case i could think of.
[/COLOR]

My understanding is that there was 5 days whilst people were flying out of Wuhan before China notified the rest of the world. If that is true, then I think non-chinese nationals would not fall into a mitigating case. Because, the non-chines nationals should have been tested and put into self-isolation for 14 days.