After The Virus - What Next?

[shiny!]

Re: After the Virus? Cognitive Dissonance

1. we already know that most SARS-CoV-2 infections are asymptomatic and mild for the bulk of the population, but become more severe with age and comorbid illnesses. even with the [almost] national lockdown, however, we are just beginning to plateau in terms on new cases and daily deaths. any "opening up" will start the curves rising again, as we will apparently have demonstrated soon in georgia. but even at current levels our icu's are barely coping, if they are indeed coping [given the number of deaths which have apparently happened at home, without hospital contact, and which are just being added to the statistics]. so we can "open up" now at the cost of overwhelming our healthcare system. be sure not to have heart attack, a stroke or need cancer surgery for the duration of this process, because you won't get treated adequately or at all.
so, given our current level of knowledge [or level of ignorance] even if 90% of the population were seropositive we would not know how safe it was to return to a more normal lifestyle. given that we are now only at 3%, however, we are likely to have some answers to the questions above by the time we reach 70%

even at 3% we know that many more people have had the virus than have had such infection proven by testing. that means the fatality rate is lower than initially thought. nonetheless, the morbidity and fatality rate is high enough, unfortunately, to push the limits of our healthcare system's capacity.

Not every ICU and hospital in the country is being stressed to capacity. It's in pockets. There are empty hospitals laying off staff and facing bankruptcy because they suspended all their operations in anticipation of an influx of Covid-19 patients that never happened. In the Phoenix-metro area, for instance (one of the biggest cities in the country), there have been 23 confirmed cases in my zip code. 31 cases in the Scottsdale zip code where I work. 16 cases in the zip code where I lived across town. There are more cases in the center of the city where the population is more dense, but every place is being treated the same.

i think a more plausible basis on which we could significantly reduce people's fear is having a well-proven effective treatment for the illness. such a drug, or combination of drugs, might emerge within a few months, if we're lucky. of course then it would have to be produced on a bulk basis, but it is plausible that we might have good treatment, widely available, in 6-8 months. [plausible, far from certain.]

Excellent point. A treatment will do a lot to give people confidence again. But we cannot stay locked down like this for 6-8 months. Too many systems will fail during that time.

bottom line: we are profoundly ignorant about this virus and the illness it causes. it is hard to make policy given our state of ignorance, beyond the policy of trying to learn more, trying to minimize morbidity and mortality both from the iillness and the destruction wreaked on the economy, and trying not to destroy our healthcare system in the process.

I have not seen the same emphasis being put on minimizing morbidity and mortality from the destruction wreaked on the economy as there has been on minimizing morbidity and mortality from the illness. I see a lot of black and white thinking and a lot of treating every place the same no matter how different their individual circumstances.

My question was about addressing the psychological damage that has been done to individuals in the name of combating this virus. It is going to have lasting effects that will impact economic recovery.

[Chris Coles]

Re: After the Virus? Cognitive Dissonance

a. does having antibodies confer any immunity whatsoever? we don't know. there are illnesses which cause antibodies to be produced but those antibodies do not provide immunity. remember the 35 [32?] yo chinese doctor who raised the alarm about the illness early on and was taken to the police station for his troubles? he had the virus and recovered. a month later he became sick again with covid-19 and died. was that a second infection or re-activation of dormant virus? we dont know. we also don't know if there is even such a thing as "dormant virus" with this illness. there are also suspicions that 2nd infections are WORSE than first infections because they cause an immune system over-reaction, a "cytokine storm."

b. if having had the virus does confer some immunity, if so can it partial or is it total? some infections produce lifelong immunity; many produce immunity limited in effectiveness and/or duration. if having had covid-19 confers some immunity, is it total or partial, and how long does that immunity last?

c. does the severity or treatment of the illness affect antibody production and, if so, does it affect levels of immunity?

so, given our current level of knowledge [or level of ignorance] even if 90% of the population were seropositive we would not know how safe it was to return to a more normal lifestyle. given that we are now only at 3%, however, we are likely to have some answers to the questions above by the time we reach 70%

even at 3% we know that many more people have had the virus than have had such infection proven by testing. that means the fatality rate is lower than initially thought. nonetheless, the morbidity and fatality rate is high enough, unfortunately, to push the limits of our healthcare system's capacity.

i think a more plausible basis on which we could significantly reduce people's fear is having a well-proven effective treatment for the illness. such a drug, or combination of drugs, might emerge within a few months, if we're lucky. of course then it would have to be produced on a bulk basis, but it is plausible that we might have good treatment, widely available, in 6-8 months. [plausible, far from certain.

jk, correct me if I am wrong, but am I correct to believe that the likes of a cytokine storm is associated with sepsis; and that that is very often the end result of the worst cases with such a virus? In which case, is it too much to ask why, when so many are dying, there is no reference to the use of vitamin C combined with Hydrocortisone and thiamine, Vitamin B1, which has been shown to reduce such deaths by as much as 80% . . . yet no one seems to want to talk about it. Here in the UK we get repeated, day after day, the numbers of dead; with never a single word about the potential to dramatically reduce such deaths. What am I missing here? Why the continuing silence? https://www.youtube.com/watch?time_c...ature=emb_logo

[Mega]

Re: After the Virus? Cognitive Dissonance

I think the "Stable Genius" has some ideas.....

[GRG55]

Re: After the Virus? Cognitive Dissonance

1. we already know that most SARS-CoV-2 infections are asymptomatic and mild for the bulk of the population, but become more severe with age and comorbid illnesses. even with the [almost] national lockdown, however, we are just beginning to plateau in terms on new cases and daily deaths. any "opening up" will start the curves rising again, as we will apparently have demonstrated soon in georgia. but even at current levels our icu's are barely coping, if they are indeed coping [given the number of deaths which have apparently happened at home, without hospital contact, and which are just being added to the statistics]. so we can "open up" now at the cost of overwhelming our healthcare system. be sure not to have heart attack, a stroke or need cancer surgery for the duration of this process, because you won't get treated adequately or at all.

2. multiple studies now agree that only about 3% of the population is sero-positive, i.e. has had the virus. that's a long way from the ~70% required for some herd immunity benefit.

3. by the way, there is no guarantee that there would be ANY herd immunity effect, no matter how high the proportion of the population which has already had the virus. that's because of the multiude of things we don't know:

a. does having antibodies confer any immunity whatsoever? we don't know. there are illnesses which cause antibodies to be produced but those antibodies do not provide immunity. remember the 35 [32?] yo chinese doctor who raised the alarm about the illness early on and was taken to the police station for his troubles? he had the virus and recovered. a month later he became sick again with covid-19 and died. was that a second infection or re-activation of dormant virus? we dont know. we also don't know if there is even such a thing as "dormant virus" with this illness. there are also suspicions that 2nd infections are WORSE than first infections because they cause an immune system over-reaction, a "cytokine storm."

b. if having had the virus does confer some immunity, if so can it partial or is it total? some infections produce lifelong immunity; many produce immunity limited in effectiveness and/or duration. if having had covid-19 confers some immunity, is it total or partial, and how long does that immunity last?

c. does the severity or treatment of the illness affect antibody production and, if so, does it affect levels of immunity?

so, given our current level of knowledge [or level of ignorance] even if 90% of the population were seropositive we would not know how safe it was to return to a more normal lifestyle. given that we are now only at 3%, however, we are likely to have some answers to the questions above by the time we reach 70%

even at 3% we know that many more people have had the virus than have had such infection proven by testing. that means the fatality rate is lower than initially thought. nonetheless, the morbidity and fatality rate is high enough, unfortunately, to push the limits of our healthcare system's capacity.

i think a more plausible basis on which we could significantly reduce people's fear is having a well-proven effective treatment for the illness. such a drug, or combination of drugs, might emerge within a few months, if we're lucky. of course then it would have to be produced on a bulk basis, but it is plausible that we might have good treatment, widely available, in 6-8 months. [plausible, far from certain.]

as for vaccines, everyone says 12-18months if we can develop one at all. it is apparently harder to develop vaccines for rna viruses such as SARS-CoV-2, than for dna based viruses. and there are such viruses for which we have never successfully developed a vaccine. another question relates back to the issue of the possibility that re-infection produces a dangerous cytokine storm. would a vaccine trigger the same reaction in someone who had had covid-19 at some time prior to getting the vaccine? if so, the higher the proportion of seropositive individuals in the population, the more dangerous the vaccine itself.

bottom line: we are profoundly ignorant about this virus and the illness it causes. it is hard to make policy given our state of ignorance, beyond the policy of trying to learn more, trying to minimize morbidity and mortality both from the iillness and the destruction wreaked on the economy, and trying not to destroy our healthcare system in the process.

Jeff: Thank you very much for this. Some of the most helpful information to put the present public policy dilemmas into context.

Given we know so little for certain, my sense is there's a considerable asymmetric risk if we don't remain cautious.

[GRG55]

Re: After the Virus? Cognitive Dissonance

Forget to attach a link? Now I'm curious.....but let me finish my coffee first.

Interesting. I did a cut & paste that shows up on my screen.
Original post edited to add it as an attachment.

I think we all need a bit of a laugh to get through this.

[Woodsman]

Re: After the Virus? Cognitive Dissonance

...bottom line: we are profoundly ignorant about this virus and the illness it causes. it is hard to make policy given our state of ignorance, beyond the policy of trying to learn more, trying to minimize morbidity and mortality both from the iillness and the destruction wreaked on the economy, and trying not to destroy our healthcare system in the process.

We now know about asymptomatic transmission, but the outset had no inkling of it. As such, the initial screening attempts only intercepted those showing symptoms and as such were relatively worthless. Appreciating how badly they screwed the pooch, the oh so expert health authorities panicked and ordered a general lockdown. They did it despite the knowledge gained from places like Italy that the largest cohort of those infected and showing the worst symptoms are and remain the [COLOR=#222222][FONT=Verdana]aged and those with comorbid illnesses.

It's impossible to say that we are "just beginning to plateau" because those data are retrospective and subject to the delays built into the reporting structure, making it rather likely that the "plateau" is behind us. That said, reporting is both improving in its efficiency and degrading in its quality as the guidance from health authorities has expanded to roll in as high a count as can be gathered so that any mortality "with" Covid is counted as "by" Covid. This seems to me like an attempt to eat one's cake and have it too. And the hysteria about "overwhelming our ICUs" isn't comporting with even the less than ideal data we have thus far. Speaking of Georgia, the 1k beds stood up at the massive World Congress Center convention building remain empty, much like the Javits Center in NY and the hospital ship Mercy. Hospitals are laying off staff. The sky-is-falling predictions which apparently motivated this absurd and soon to be obvious to all (save the "experts") ineffective mass lockdown, given the growing evidence from serological studies, have not and I strongly suspect will not come to pass.

The Imperial College study so many "responsible" figures hold up as evidence has been effectively debunked by the reality on the ground, even if the health authorities refuse to admit it while they reduce their estimated body count by orders of magnitude downward. The models promised unimaginably huge numbers. We haven’t come anywhere close to them. Millions and millions and millions of lives the world over have been ruined, with more ruin on the way, as the result of trusting expert models. They have to find a way to bring actual numbers in line with models. They’re running out of options, though. Dying with from dying from was a good move, and we saw it immediately pop up in the death counts. Dying with suspicion from dying with was also clever enough, and we saw that, too. What else is left, though? Only one thing. If “dying from” is defined as dying with presence of COVID-19 antibodies, then once we reach herd immunity, then about 80% of all deaths can be classified as coronavirus deaths.

Places like Georgia may see a spike or the trend may continue downward, but you can be sure that any "good news" will be minimized and any increases will be heralded as a catastrophe, and being in the South, undoubtedly linked with a nefarious racial conspiracy. It's a particularly disingenuous bit of ass covering to warn folks not to have a heart attack, stroke, or cancer while the states "open up" when the blanket lockdown has forced everyone who needed regular and ongoing care for such chronic conditions to delay it. Again, this evidences a rather transparent urge by some to have it both ways. We can't leave our homes and return to our businesses and jobs because there is no herd immunity even though the antibody studies show an ever growing number of persons who were infected but showed mild to minimal symptoms. We can't gain herd immunity if all the cattle stayed locked in their pens, either, so it's damned if you do or damned if you don't and par for the course for our esteemed health professionals (everyone clap, all together now). Oh, and please don't ask for any guarantees because of the multiple things we don't know, gotten wrong, backtracked, covered up, and minimized, but please do exactly what we say despite our profound ignorance and the misguided and counterproductive policies we forced on you out of that ignorance, but do exactly as we say nonetheless or all of you will die.

Because we know what we know until we find out we were wrong and what we don't know is either so dangerous or so unimportant that you will or will not risk a horrible and painful death unless you do precisely as we say at any given moment. We're only trying to save lives from this virus and even if millions more die world-wide from the effects of our lockdown, it will be the lockdown that beat it and your fault for ignoring us if we don't beat it, so you'll just have to trust us that it would have been far worse if we hadn't even if the worst of effects of our policy will be with us long after the virus has passed. And anyway we won't fund research that says anything to the contrary and ruin any researcher that dares step out of line.

Oh wait...stand by. Looks like there are some new and revised guidelines being released as I speak! Here they are:

1. Basically, you can't leave the house for any reason, but if you have to, then you can.
2. Masks are useless. But they will protect you. They can save you, no they can’t, they’re useless, but wear one anyway. Now they’re mandatory. But maybe. Or not.
3. Stores are closed, except for the ones that are open.
4. You should not go to the hospital unless you have to go there. Stay out of the ER at all costs unless you’re having a medical emergency then it’s okay.
5. This virus is deadly but still not too scary, except that sometimes it actually leads to a global disaster. Stay calm.
6. Gloves won't help, but they can still help. Especially if you wear the same pair for hours and everywhere you go, then you can not spread germs, nope. #science
7. Everyone needs to stay home, but it's important to go out because sun. Sunlight will kill the virus but not if the virus kills you first by walking in the sunlight where you may be exposed to the virus.
8. There is no shortage of groceries in the supermarket, but there are many things missing when you go there in the evening, but not in the morning. Sometimes.
9. The virus has no effect on children except those it has affected or will affect.
10. Animals are not affected, but there is still a cat that tested positive in Belgium in February when no one had been tested yet, and a tiger.. and one really deadly but also possibly fictional but very sick bat.
11. You will have many symptoms when you are sick, but you can also get sick without symptoms, have symptoms without being sick, or be contagious without having symptoms.
12. In order not to get sick, you have to eat well and exercise, but also never go out to the grocery store so eat shelf stable processed crap and stay inside your four walls but also stay healthy.
13. It's better to get some fresh air, but you may be arrested if you’re getting fresh air the wrong way and most importantly, don't go to a park, the fresh air there is deadly.
14. Under no circumstances should you go to retirement homes, but if you have to take care of the elderly and bring them food and medication then fine. Just wear gloves. The same ones. All day.
15. If you are sick, you can't go out, but you can go to the pharmacy to get your medications. Just don’t make eye contact cause you may spread your sickness that way.
16. You can get restaurant food delivered to the house, which may have been prepared by people who didn't wear masks or gloves. But you have to leave your groceries outside for 3 hours to be decontaminated by the fresh air that also may have virus particles floating around in it.
17. Taxi drivers are immune to the virus apparently since you can still take a taxi ride with a random taxi driver. Just don’t take the taxi to your mom’s house because you know. Stay away from your mom.
18. You can walk around with a friend if you stay six feet apart but don’t visit with your family if they don't live under the same roof as you. Even if you’ve all been locked inside for two months already. You may still have the virus and just not know it yet. You’ll find out. Wait another week. Wasn’t that week? Might be the next one. Keep waiting.
19. You are safe if you maintain the appropriate social distance, but you can’t go out with friends or strangers at the safe social distance. Social distancing means you shouldn’t leave your house and don’t be social, except you may go to the liquor store but don’t socialize there while you’re being socially distant.
20. The virus remains active on different surfaces for two hours, no, four, no, six, no, we didn't say hours, maybe days? But it takes a damp environment. Oh no, not necessarily.
21. The virus stays in the air - well no, or yes, maybe, especially in a closed room, in one hour a sick person can infect ten, so if it falls, all our children were already infected at school before it was closed. But remember, if you stay at the recommended social distance, however in certain circumstances you should maintain a greater distance, which, studies show, the virus can travel further, maybe.
22. We count the number of deaths but we don't know how many people are infected as we have only tested so far those who were "almost dead" to find out if that's what they will die of…
23. The virus will only disappear if we achieve collective immunity.. but stay inside until the virus disappears.
24. Most importantly, stay in a constant state of fear, agitation, and panic. The authorities and media will help you with this by not telling what kinds of people will be most likely to be affected, which kinds of people are most likely to die, and how many have recovered. If your state has 2000 cases, you won't be told how many have recovered - so far as you know, they're all deathly ill, but also walking around spreading disease like Typhoid Mary. You're next.
25. Be afraid.
26. Stay terrorized.
27. Forget our mistakes.
28. Blame your political enemies.
29. Ignore your common sense.
30. Trust us.

The data is in — stop the panic and end the total isolation
BY DR. SCOTT W. ATLAS, OPINION CONTRIBUTOR — The Hill 04/22/20 12:30 PM EDT

Five key facts are being ignored by those calling for continuing the near-total lockdown...

Fact 1: The overwhelming majority of people do not have any significant risk of dying from COVID-19...
Fact 2: Protecting older, at-risk people eliminates hospital overcrowding...
Fact 3: Vital population immunity is prevented by total isolation policies, prolonging the problem...
Fact 4: People are dying because other medical care is not getting done due to hypothetical projections...
Fact 5: We have a clearly defined population at risk who can be protected with targeted measures...

...Scott W. Atlas, MD, is the David and Joan Traitel Senior Fellow at Stanford University’s Hoover Institution and the former chief of neuroradiology at Stanford University Medical Center.

https://thehill.com/opinion/healthca...otal-isolation

[jk]

Re: After the Virus? Cognitive Dissonance

Not every ICU and hospital in the country is being stressed to capacity. It's in pockets. There are empty hospitals laying off staff and facing bankruptcy because they suspended all their operations in anticipation of an influx of Covid-19 patients that never happened. In the Phoenix-metro area, for instance (one of the biggest cities in the country), there have been 23 confirmed cases in my zip code. 31 cases in the Scottsdale zip code where I work. 16 cases in the zip code where I lived across town. There are more cases in the center of the city where the population is more dense, but every place is being treated the same.

given the fact that the incubation period is up to 2 weeks, and there may be totally asymptomatic carriers, if you wait for a bigger wave of sick patients you will discover that they are just the beginning of what will be a flood.

My question was about addressing the psychological damage that has been done to individuals in the name of combating this virus. It is going to have lasting effects that will impact economic recovery.

i agree. i think the biggest will be a sharp rise in the savings rate or, in other words, a sharp drop in consumption spending even when people have incomes again. [note the savings rate increased after the gfc, and the rate stayed up. this effect will be bigger]

i think theaters, malls and restaurants, theme parks, ball parks and so on will be slow to recover, but will eventually recover. it wll take quite a while before we have as many restaurants as pre-virus.

it is not clear to me, however, that we should view such behavioral change as "damage." e.g. frankly the country would be in better shape if it hadn't embraced debt as a way of life.

[Mega]

Re: After the Virus? Cognitive Dissonance

[globaleconomicollaps]

Re: After the Virus? Cognitive Dissonance

Not every ICU and hospital in the country is being stressed to capacity. It's in pockets. There are empty hospitals laying off staff and facing bankruptcy because they suspended all their operations in anticipation of an influx of Covid-19 patients that never happened. In the Phoenix-metro area, for instance (one of the biggest cities in the country), there have been 23 confirmed cases in my zip code. 31 cases in the Scottsdale zip code where I work. 16 cases in the zip code where I lived across town. There are more cases in the center of the city where the population is more dense, but every place is being treated the same.

The disease is spreading most actively in cities with good public transportation ( London, Paris, New York,etc.).

[jpatter666]

Re: After the Virus? Cognitive Dissonance

i agree. i think the biggest will be a sharp rise in the savings rate or, in other words, a sharp drop in consumption spending even when people have incomes again. [note the savings rate increased after the gfc, and the rate stayed up. this effect will be bigger]

In the short-term (Ka) I agree. Longer-term, not so certain as the Fed seems insistent on getting us to Poom as fast as possible. The question in my mind now is will we repeat the 70s or something worse.

[GRG55]

Re: After the Virus? Cognitive Dissonance

...i agree. i think the biggest will be a sharp rise in the savings rate or, in other words, a sharp drop in consumption spending even when people have incomes again. [note the savings rate increased after the gfc, and the rate stayed up. this effect will be bigger]

i think theaters, malls and restaurants, theme parks, ball parks and so on will be slow to recover, but will eventually recover. it wll take quite a while before we have as many restaurants as pre-virus.

it is not clear to me, however, that we should view such behavioral change as "damage." e.g. frankly the country would be in better shape if it hadn't embraced debt as a way of life.

Debt brings consumption forward from the future.

We've been using debt worldwide to overcome the problem of far too much productive capacity for almost everything. And the largest contributor to that capacity increase in the past couple of decades has been China.

As the ability to service debt to consume Chinese trinkets at WalMart started to reach saturation in the developed world (USA and Europe - each with multi-decade zero real income growth, giving way to income compression post gfc), the Chinese tried to keep the game going by introducing the Belt & Road initiative, complete with the necessary Chinese loans to developing nations to buy Chinese cement, steel, vehicles, construction services and more.

I expect we are now going to see productive capacity declines as everybody from commercial airplane manufacturers, automobile makers and shoe factories shutter some lines and plants all around the world. This is long overdue (I would argue the 2008 bailouts of GM, Chrysler and other auto companies just extended the problem in that sector, as one example).

If, as I truly hope, there is a major rethinking of where the supplies of critical goods and materials are sourced it will mean new capacity for those things will be created (repatriation of production) and that will exacerbate the overcapacity problem - particularly in the one nation most responsible for creating the problems in the first place. If there is any common sense left in this world the so-called "Chinese miracle" is, thankfully, finally over.

In the short-term (Ka) I agree. Longer-term, not so certain as the Fed seems insistent on getting us to Poom as fast as possible. The question in my mind now is will we repeat the 70s or something worse.

Permanent capacity reductions are going to set the stage for the inflationary Poom. But first we need to work through the final stages of the obligatory deflationary Ka...and I still think a blow-off top in the US$ exchange is going to happen before we will mark the turning.

[jpatter666]

Re: After the Virus? Cognitive Dissonance

Permanent capacity reductions are going to set the stage for the inflationary Poom. But first we need to work through the final stages of the obligatory deflationary Ka...and I still think a blow-off top in the US$ exchange is going to happen before we will mark the turning.

Saw a good comment that US$ was eating every other fiat currency -- and then would proceed to eat itself. That sounds about right.

[jk]

Re: After the Virus? Cognitive Dissonance

Debt brings consumption forward from the future.

We've been using debt worldwide to overcome the problem of far too much productive capacity for almost everything. And the largest contributor to that capacity increase in the past couple of decades has been China.

the idea of too much capacity is kind of interesting, since it is usually assumed that there is no end to human desire. a different way of thinking about it is as 2 mismatches: the first is producing too much of some things [e.g. every country wants an auto maker] and not enough of other things that people would indeed want. the other is a mismatch in the means of purchasing things. there are lots of people in the world who would like more of a whole variety of things, starting with those who want more food and clean water, and moving up the luxury chain from there. i think we could do ourselves a favor by not condensing those mismatches into "overcapacity", which puts the focus solely on the mistaken over-investment in some areas while ignoring the underinvestment in others, and the lack of means for a great deal of the population.

As the ability to service debt to consume Chinese trinkets at WalMart started to reach saturation in the developed world (USA and Europe - each with multi-decade zero real income growth, giving way to income compression post gfc), the Chinese tried to keep the game going by introducing the Belt & Road initiative, complete with the necessary Chinese loans to developing nations to buy Chinese cement, steel, vehicles, construction services and more.

I expect we are now going to see productive capacity declines as everybody from commercial airplane manufacturers, automobile makers and shoe factories shutter some lines and plants all around the world. This is long overdue (I would argue the 2008 bailouts of GM, Chrysler and other auto companies just extended the problem in that sector, as one example).

If, as I truly hope, there is a major rethinking of where the supplies of critical goods and materials are sourced it will mean new capacity for those things will be created (repatriation of production) and that will exacerbate the overcapacity problem - particularly in the one nation most responsible for creating the problems in the first place. If there is any common sense left in this world the so-called "Chinese miracle" is, thankfully, finally over.

Permanent capacity reductions are going to set the stage for the inflationary Poom. But first we need to work through the final stages of the obligatory deflationary Ka...and I still think a blow-off top in the US$ exchange is going to happen before we will mark the turning.

one consequence of zirp has been the survival of many zombie companies, companies which don't earn enough to even service their debts.

In fact across 14 advanced economies, zombies now number 12% of all publicly-listed companies, according to a research paper by the Swiss-based Bank for International Settlements. Within the S&P 1500, 14% of companiescould be classified as zombies, according to analysis by Bianco Research.

surely overcapacity [in the sense of producing too much of the wrong stuff] starts with this group, and ridding ourselves of them would be a healthy thing for the economy..

your mention of "permanent capacity reductions" ultimately driving demand-pull inflation sounds right to me. the fed and the treasury and the gov't can drop money from helicopters, thereby replacing the potential demand lost when people lost their incomes. but they can't create things - goods and services- for that money to buy.

[globaleconomicollaps]

Re: After the Virus? Cognitive Dissonance

In the short-term (Ka) I agree. Longer-term, not so certain as the Fed seems insistent on getting us to Poom as fast as possible. The question in my mind now is will we repeat the 70s or something worse.

Do you think that serial bubble thing is still going on? I'm thinking of the mechanism. The internet stock market bubble burst followed by a fed induced housing bubble. That progression was because housing had not previously been inflated. People stung by the internet bubble took their remaining cash and bought houses. That always seemed a little simplistic. Recently we have seen a credit fueled rise in stock markets and high yield bonds. Are these bubbles and are they bursting? Are world central banks still trying to inflate bubbles?

[AlRoz]

Re: After the Virus? Cognitive Dissonance

Oh wait...stand by. Looks like there are some new and revised guidelines being released as I speak! Here they are:

1. Basically, you can't leave the house for any reason, but if you have to, then you can.
2. Masks are useless. But they will protect you. They can save you, no they can’t, they’re useless, but wear one anyway. Now they’re mandatory. But maybe. Or not.
3. Stores are closed, except for the ones that are open.
4. You should not go to the hospital unless you have to go there. Stay out of the ER at all costs unless you’re having a medical emergency then it’s okay.
5. This virus is deadly but still not too scary, except that sometimes it actually leads to a global disaster. Stay calm.
6. Gloves won't help, but they can still help. Especially if you wear the same pair for hours and everywhere you go, then you can not spread germs, nope. #science
7. Everyone needs to stay home, but it's important to go out because sun. Sunlight will kill the virus but not if the virus kills you first by walking in the sunlight where you may be exposed to the virus.
8. There is no shortage of groceries in the supermarket, but there are many things missing when you go there in the evening, but not in the morning. Sometimes.
9. The virus has no effect on children except those it has affected or will affect.
10. Animals are not affected, but there is still a cat that tested positive in Belgium in February when no one had been tested yet, and a tiger.. and one really deadly but also possibly fictional but very sick bat.
11. You will have many symptoms when you are sick, but you can also get sick without symptoms, have symptoms without being sick, or be contagious without having symptoms.
12. In order not to get sick, you have to eat well and exercise, but also never go out to the grocery store so eat shelf stable processed crap and stay inside your four walls but also stay healthy.
13. It's better to get some fresh air, but you may be arrested if you’re getting fresh air the wrong way and most importantly, don't go to a park, the fresh air there is deadly.
14. Under no circumstances should you go to retirement homes, but if you have to take care of the elderly and bring them food and medication then fine. Just wear gloves. The same ones. All day.
15. If you are sick, you can't go out, but you can go to the pharmacy to get your medications. Just don’t make eye contact cause you may spread your sickness that way.
16. You can get restaurant food delivered to the house, which may have been prepared by people who didn't wear masks or gloves. But you have to leave your groceries outside for 3 hours to be decontaminated by the fresh air that also may have virus particles floating around in it.
17. Taxi drivers are immune to the virus apparently since you can still take a taxi ride with a random taxi driver. Just don’t take the taxi to your mom’s house because you know. Stay away from your mom.
18. You can walk around with a friend if you stay six feet apart but don’t visit with your family if they don't live under the same roof as you. Even if you’ve all been locked inside for two months already. You may still have the virus and just not know it yet. You’ll find out. Wait another week. Wasn’t that week? Might be the next one. Keep waiting.
19. You are safe if you maintain the appropriate social distance, but you can’t go out with friends or strangers at the safe social distance. Social distancing means you shouldn’t leave your house and don’t be social, except you may go to the liquor store but don’t socialize there while you’re being socially distant.
20. The virus remains active on different surfaces for two hours, no, four, no, six, no, we didn't say hours, maybe days? But it takes a damp environment. Oh no, not necessarily.
21. The virus stays in the air - well no, or yes, maybe, especially in a closed room, in one hour a sick person can infect ten, so if it falls, all our children were already infected at school before it was closed. But remember, if you stay at the recommended social distance, however in certain circumstances you should maintain a greater distance, which, studies show, the virus can travel further, maybe.
22. We count the number of deaths but we don't know how many people are infected as we have only tested so far those who were "almost dead" to find out if that's what they will die of…
23. The virus will only disappear if we achieve collective immunity.. but stay inside until the virus disappears.
24. Most importantly, stay in a constant state of fear, agitation, and panic. The authorities and media will help you with this by not telling what kinds of people will be most likely to be affected, which kinds of people are most likely to die, and how many have recovered. If your state has 2000 cases, you won't be told how many have recovered - so far as you know, they're all deathly ill, but also walking around spreading disease like Typhoid Mary. You're next.
25. Be afraid.
26. Stay terrorized.
27. Forget our mistakes.
28. Blame your political enemies.
29. Ignore your common sense.
30. Trust us.