Covid-19

[GRG55]

Re: Covid-19

My answer to that is, Why not? If this is indeed a deadly disease worthy of shutting down the world economy for months ( never happened before ). Than what would possess you to leave the house without a space suit? Remember 12 million dead by June.

Back to my point. If you take a jar of white balls and you replace 20% of them with black balls then it is pretty obvious that most of the black balls are touching white balls. Set the wayback machine to three weeks ago and we would presumably have a 1% of the population infected. If 1% of the balls are black that means many fewer infections. We should just be reaching full gallop now, not slowing down. Like I said, it doesn't pass the smell test.

Something else doesn't seem right. According to you, your chances of dying from COVID-19 are about 10%. Would you drive to work everyday if you thought your chances of dying were anything like 10% over the course of a year or so? Don't misunderstand me. I think that this is a very dangerous disease. It has killed lots of people and will kill lots more. I do take, what to most people seem, absurd precautions. I am just struck by the disconnect between your words and your actions.

I've never thought it was worthy of shutting down the world economy for months over this. I have isolated myself because it is now socially unacceptable in my community, because of government edict, to attempt to be in near contact with anyone else who you don't live with. The impoverishment we are creating, and the excessive diversion of medical resources, may turn out to kill more people than the virus when we are done.

And where did you get the idea that I think I have a 10% chance of dying from this virus if I don't wear a spacesuit? At most for my age group it's about 2.5% (70% chance of getting the virus, 3.6% chance of dying if I get it), and that is almost certainly overstated for where I live and co-morbidity patterns.

The hypocrisy is stunning. At the same time our Federal Government has us in quarantine in our homes, it is still allowing Air China to regularly fly between China and Vancouver (Air Canada has voluntarily grounded its planes).

[jk]

Re: Covid-19

i think we make a mistake to focus so much on cfr. fatality is, admittedly, a big deal, but it is not the only deal. of those who are sick and shown to have covid-19 [just a subset of those who actually get the disease, including those who are either asymptomatic or mildly symptomatic, or just never seek care nor are tested] 20% require hospitalization. one quarter of THOSE, or 5% who are sick and diagnosed, need an icu, possibly for WEEKS. this is an enormous burden, whether or not they survive.

also, re current rates of illness, hospitalization, icu use, requirements for ventilators, remember these numbers are what they are because we are physically distancing ourselves and reducing the rate of spread of the infection. all these numbers would be much higher in the absence of such distancing.

check out this article
https://www.euronews.com/2020/04/12/...rategy-working
comparing sweden, with its much more relaxed policy, with what's happening in its locked down neighbors.

i don't know a formula for trading off death rates and economic activity, but i do know that hospitals are overwhelmed with sick patients, and are drawing up guidelines for the day they must begin to make choices to pull someone's ventilator to give it to another patient with a greater life expectancy.

[bpr]

Re: Covid-19

also, re current rates of illness, hospitalization, icu use, requirements for ventilators, remember these numbers are what they are because we are physically distancing ourselves and reducing the rate of spread of the infection. all these numbers would be much higher in the absence of such distancing.

I think this is what's missing from the equation: the effects of social distancing, wearing masks, etc. are immeasurable. Even the data we think we can measure are highly inaccurate (are we only counting those who were tested? what about folks who die at home and haven't seen a doctor in eight months?).

There is no way to know what the infection/mortality numbers would be if the NCAA didn't halt its season and if the stadiums were full, but businesses are putting numbers on the money lost every day. So, I think there's a high likelihood that the restrictions are relaxed early and we experience a second wave.

[Techdread]

Re: Covid-19

Lets assume in Spain the crisis is over.



They have a death rate as of now 368 per million. We can verify this is correct Spain's population aprox 47 million, 17209 / 47 = 366 so looks correct.

For the whole of Spain 366 / 1000000 * 100 = 0.0366% of the whole population has died from this virus, this after extraordinary efforts to control it, this is a lower bound for Spain.
The question is how bad would the situation be if they just allow the virus to let rip?

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

[globaleconomicollaps]

Re: Covid-19

I've never thought it was worthy of shutting down the world economy for months over this. I have isolated myself because it is now socially unacceptable in my community, because of government edict, to attempt to be in near contact with anyone else who you don't live with. The impoverishment we are creating, and the excessive diversion of medical resources, may turn out to kill more people than the virus when we are done.

And where did you get the idea that I think I have a 10% chance of dying from this virus if I don't wear a spacesuit? At most for my age group it's about 2.5% (70% chance of getting the virus, 3.6% chance of dying if I get it), and that is almost certainly overstated for where I live and co-morbidity patterns.

The hypocrisy is stunning. At the same time our Federal Government has us in quarantine in our homes, it is still allowing Air China to regularly fly between China and Vancouver (Air Canada has voluntarily grounded its planes).

Sorry my bad. I misread your table. It kind of throws the whole equation of risk into light. I probably should have chosen a better example. Driving is dangerous. If you drive a lot there is a fair chance that you might die from it but most people ignore the danger. I know I do.

[Techdread]

Re: Covid-19

I think this is what's missing from the equation: the effects of social distancing, wearing masks, etc. are immeasurable. Even the data we think we can measure are highly inaccurate (are we only counting those who were tested? what about folks who die at home and haven't seen a doctor in eight months?).

There is no way to know what the infection/mortality numbers would be if the NCAA didn't halt its season and if the stadiums were full, but businesses are putting numbers on the money lost every day. So, I think there's a high likelihood that the restrictions are relaxed early and we experience a second wave.

Second wave can be reduced by mandatory wearing of face masks, Isolating the most vulnerable & testing. What we do with school children though is critical.

[jk]

Re: Covid-19

I think this is what's missing from the equation: the effects of social distancing, wearing masks, etc. are immeasurable. Even the data we think we can measure are highly inaccurate (are we only counting those who were tested? what about folks who die at home and haven't seen a doctor in eight months?).

There is no way to know what the infection/mortality numbers would be if the NCAA didn't halt its season and if the stadiums were full, but businesses are putting numbers on the money lost every day. So, I think there's a high likelihood that the restrictions are relaxed early and we experience a second wave.

some thread or other [yesterday i think] i posted a graph comparing the nordic countries. sweden has had a much more relaxed approach, and has paid for it with a much higher infection rate.

[GRG55]

Re: Covid-19

i think we make a mistake to focus so much on cfr. fatality is, admittedly, a big deal, but it is not the only deal. of those who are sick and shown to have covid-19 [just a subset of those who actually get the disease, including those who are either asymptomatic or mildly symptomatic, or just never seek care nor are tested] 20% require hospitalization. one quarter of THOSE, or 5% who are sick and diagnosed, need an icu, possibly for WEEKS. this is an enormous burden, whether or not they survive.

also, re current rates of illness, hospitalization, icu use, requirements for ventilators, remember these numbers are what they are because we are physically distancing ourselves and reducing the rate of spread of the infection. all these numbers would be much higher in the absence of such distancing.

check out this articleI
https://www.euronews.com/2020/04/12/...rategy-working
comparing sweden, with its much more relaxed policy, with what's happening in its locked down neighbors.

i don't know a formula for trading off death rates and economic activity, but i do know that hospitals are overwhelmed with sick patients, and are drawing up guidelines for the day they must begin to make choices to pull someone's ventilator to give it to another patient with a greater life expectancy.

To some degree I sympathize with our government officials. Like all of us they are dealing with uncertainties, imperfect or poor information, and an increasing flood of information coming at them from all directions. The noise level is high, no doubt information conflicts and reliable data that can be verified was scarce early on.

But some things make little sense. Our officials actively discouraged the use of masks early on, stating they weren't necessary if one social isolated at minimum 6 ft. They have completely reversed that position. We shut down 75% of global air traffic, but not until after we spread the virus all over the world, including the Falklands and the Faroes. If Taiwan officials figured out there was a problem on Dec 31, 2019 and initiated screening of incoming at its borders what took the rest of us so long?

I hope I am completely wrong, but this may not be a trade off of death rates and economic activity ("my grandfather's life vs GDP"). I fear it could become a trade off between deaths due to COVID-19 and deaths (to come shortly) due to structural unemployment/impoverishment and increasingly severe societal stresses. Even the wealthiest nation's governments can't save everybody and every business if this lockdown goes on for more than a couple of months.

[jk]

Re: Covid-19

there will no doubt be other deaths resulting from the economic consequences of the decisions being made. most politicians, i think, don't care about those deaths [they will be unseen] as much as they care about balancing very visible covid deaths against the unemployment and economic impacts on their chances of re-election.

[Woodsman]

Re: Covid-19

March: Experts say "Flatten the curve to stop hospitals from being overwhelmed; millions will die." The people respond "OMG, millions? Of course, shut it all down."

April: The people say "Apocalyptic models are wrong by orders of magnitude. Hospitals are furloughing workers because not enough patients are coming in. Can't we re-open where it makes sense?" Experts say "Shutdowns will be needed until 2022."

[Mega]

Re: Covid-19

[shiny!]

Re: Covid-19

Has Covid-19 been here since last year?

https://medium.com/@justin_hart/has-...g-13b414a3bea6

Controversy erupted on Twitter (where all controversies erupt these days) concerning the timing around Coronavirus. Not related to the discussion on time we had the other day… now question is… when did Cornavirus get here to the United States?

I made first intimations of this some days ago as I’ve been tracking and analyzing the CDC seasonal flu surveillance data. It shows that the 2019–2020 seasonal influenza “burden” has been substantial. Then I ran the numbers on Washington state and… well, see for yourself: ...

[Milton Kuo]

Re: Covid-19

Has Covid-19 been here since last year?

Reads like Commie propaganda to suggest that the virus might not have started in China. Being that it's written by a chief marketing officer, I have very little confidence in this person's knowledge of epidemiology or diseases in general. Given how quickly the virus spreads, its relatively severe effects, especially on the sickly and elderly, and American culture (how we interact with each other on a daily basis), why did it blow up first in China before finally blowing up in the U.S. around February of this year?

[jpatter666]

Re: Covid-19

Reads like Commie propaganda to suggest that the virus might not have started in China. Being that it's written by a chief marketing officer, I have very little confidence in this person's knowledge of epidemiology or diseases in general. Given how quickly the virus spreads, its relatively severe effects, especially on the sickly and elderly, and American culture (how we interact with each other on a daily basis), why did it blow up first in China before finally blowing up in the U.S. around February of this year?

I've been hearing this one for awhile. My wife came down with something really vicious in January as did many of our friends. Slight fever, really bad cough, absolutely flattened. Had it for about a week then it was over.

But that doesn't make it COVID-19. I don't recall a spike of really serious issues and hospitalizations -- just some bad version of some bug. Happens most years, just this year everyone is paranoid about it.

[FrankL]

Re: Covid-19

I've been hearing this one for awhile. My wife came down with something really vicious in January as did many of our friends. Slight fever, really bad cough, absolutely flattened. Had it for about a week then it was over.

But that doesn't make it COVID-19. I don't recall a spike of really serious issues and hospitalizations -- just some bad version of some bug. Happens most years, just this year everyone is paranoid about it.

About 30-50% of all my colleagues (mostly under 50) came down with severe flu symptoms after our company's annual conference in Dallas this january. Some had to go to ER for antivirals. I know of one colleague who was brought to ER that he was tested positive for Influenza A.

It was a very violent strain, never seen so many young people fall ill this quickly and with as severe symptoms as this year.