Covid-19

[Mega]

Re: Covid-19

On a slighty off beat track......I noticed some Women dressing like they Nurses........I guess Medics will been seen like Fireman after 9/11.
I remember my time working in a hospital, installing a phone system........& getting/collapsing with Labyrinthitis.......the speed of this bastard was breath taking!
I went from fine to being on the floor vomiting & triple vision in 3 mins I joke you not, another 10 mins & I would have been driving home.

Mike

[shiny!]

Re: Covid-19

they can't disallow a doctor to prescribe any licensed medication for any indication whatsoever- i.e. "off-label."

Good to know. Does that also hold true for state medical boards and insurance companies?

[jk]

Re: Covid-19

Good to know. Does that also hold true for state medical boards and insurance companies?

yes but 2 caveats- you're more open to a malpractice action when you go off label, and also most states are limiting the ability to fill rxs for plaquinil- there's a shortage with hospitals using it speculatively for their covid-19 patients as well as people with lupus and rheumatoid arthritis who've been taking it for years.

[globaleconomicollaps]

Re: Covid-19

The CDC's statistics on COVID-19 are being falsified.

This video disappeared from YouTube earlier today. If you want to see it again I recommend downloading it.

[jk]

Re: Covid-19

The CDC's statistics on COVID-19 are being falsified.

This video disappeared from YouTube earlier today. If you want to see it again I recommend downloading it.

a couple of observations about this, not sufficient to disprove that there's some significant change in the data generation as noted, but nonetheless worthy of comment imo:

first, the main chart analyzed is "percent increase in total reported cases from prior day." at the start of the process the total number of identified cases was very low. given a low number base, we can expect that the day to day increase BY PERCENTAGE will vary wildly, as a single case or two might represent a significant percentage of a low number base.

second, reported cases depend on testing, and testing has progressed from catastrophically inadequate to terribly inadequate. improvements in the frequency and availability of testing will tend to smooth the variable being measured.

third, we are not informed of the reporting procedure. how does the information that someone has tested positive get conveyed to the cdc? how timely is the reporting, how much variation is there both between reporting sources and day to day within reporting sources? e.g. the alternating up-down pattern he observes over 8 days could easily be the product of every-other day reporting by a number of sources. i am not saying this is the case. i don't know. but it does show that such a pattern is not necessarily the result of nefarious manipulation of data, but possibly of the administrative irregularities in highly stressed systems.

fourth the sharp reduction of variance may be the product of changes in administrative procedures implemented precisely to facilitate more timely data flow, as well as a bigger base number so that percentage changes wouldn't vary as wildly. i don't know if this is the case.

i'm sure there is more to be added if one were to get into the bureaucratic nuts and bolts of how the data is compiled.

as a general princliple, i don't attribute to malevolence or conspiracy what can be explained by stupidity, ignorance, or the inefficiencies of bureaucratic machinery.

and of course none of this explains why his original post disappeared from youtube.

[globaleconomicollaps]

Re: Covid-19

a couple of observations about this, not sufficient to disprove that there's some significant change in the data generation as noted, but nonetheless worthy of comment imo:

first, the main chart analyzed is "percent increase in total reported cases from prior day." at the start of the process the total number of identified cases was very low. given a low number base, we can expect that the day to day increase BY PERCENTAGE will vary wildly, as a single case or two might represent a significant percentage of a low number base.

second, reported cases depend on testing, and testing has progressed from catastrophically inadequate to terribly inadequate. improvements in the frequency and availability of testing will tend to smooth the variable being measured.

third, we are not informed of the reporting procedure. how does the information that someone has tested positive get conveyed to the cdc? how timely is the reporting, how much variation is there both between reporting sources and day to day within reporting sources? e.g. the alternating up-down pattern he observes over 8 days could easily be the product of every-other day reporting by a number of sources. i am not saying this is the case. i don't know. but it does show that such a pattern is not necessarily the result of nefarious manipulation of data, but possibly of the administrative irregularities in highly stressed systems.

fourth the sharp reduction of variance may be the product of changes in administrative procedures implemented precisely to facilitate more timely data flow, as well as a bigger base number so that percentage changes wouldn't vary as wildly. i don't know if this is the case.

i'm sure there is more to be added if one were to get into the bureaucratic nuts and bolts of how the data is compiled.

as a general principle, i don't attribute to malevolence or conspiracy what can be explained by stupidity, ignorance, or the inefficiencies of bureaucratic machinery.

and of course none of this explains why his original post disappeared from YouTube.

This is the Erin Scott video that he discusses:

[Mega]

Re: Covid-19

[Techdread]

Re: Covid-19

Arm chair prick.


Blood tests show 14% of people are now immune to covid-19 in one town in Germany
Surveys of who has been infected show the pandemic still has far to go before it burns out

Now, after searching blood from 500 residents for antibodies to the virus, scientists at a nearby university say they have determined that one in seven have been infected and are therefore “immune.” Some of those people would have had no symptoms at all.Their brief report (PDF), posted online in German, has big implications for how soon that town, and the rest of the world, can come out from lockdown.

“To me it looks like we don’t yet have a large fraction of the population exposed,” says Nicholas Christakis, a doctor and social science researcher at Yale University. “They had carnivals and festivals, but only 14% are positive. That means there is a lot more to go even in a hard-hit part of Germany.”
Here's why the true infection rate in a region matters: the bigger it is, the less pain still lies ahead. Eventually, when enough people are immune—maybe half to three-quarters of us—the virus won’t be able to spread further, a concept called herd immunity.
But the German town isn’t close to that threshold yet, and to Christakis the preliminary figure is “unfortunate” because it means the virus still has more damage to do.
The German report is among the first to survey a population for evidence of prior infection, data that scientists need to determine how far the pandemic has spread, what the real death rate is, and how many people show no symptoms at all.
“It’s very preliminary, but it’s the kind of study we desperately need,” says Christakis, who believes the US should test as many as 200,000 people, from big cities like New York to small towns in the Midwest. “This is crucial to quantify a host of basic parameters.”
Globally, the official case count of covid-19 is more than 1.5 million people, but that reckoning mostly includes people who seek medical help and get tested. The true number of people infected, including those without symptoms and who don’t get tested, is far higher.
More data from "sero-surveys" should be available soon; sources include US hospitals. On April 6, Stanford Medicine announced it had launched its own serology test and had begun screening doctors, nurses, and others for antibodies.
“The test will enable us to determine which health-care workers might be at low risk for working with covid-19 patients, as well as understanding disease prevalence in our communities,” said spokesperson Lisa Kim.
Early results from hospitals are already circulating among some experts, says Christakis, who thinks these data will get us “closer to the truth” about how far the infection has spread in US cities. “If you see 5% positive in your health-care workers, that means infection rates probably aren’t higher than that in your city,” he says.
The survey in Germany was carried out by virologist Hendrik Streeck and several others at the University Hospital in Bonn, who say they approached about 1,000 residents of Gangelt to give blood, have their throats swabbed, and fill out a survey.
They found that 2% of residents were actively infected by the coronavirus and a total of 14% had antibodies, indicating a prior infection. This group of people, they say, “can no longer be infected with SARS-CoV-2,” as the virus is known to scientists.
As the virus spreads, it sends a certain percentage of people to the hospital and a few of those to ICUs; a portion of those will die. One of the biggest unanswered questions is exactly what percentage of infected people the coronavirus is killing.
From the result of their blood survey, the German team estimated the death rate in the municipality at 0.37% overall, a figure significantly lower than what’s shown on a dashboard maintained by Johns Hopkins, where the death rate in Germany among reported cases is 2%.
The authors explain that the difference in the calculations boils down to how many people are actually infected but haven’t been counted because they have mild or no symptoms.
The presence of previously infected people in the community, Streeck and colleagues believe, will reduce the speed at which the virus can move in the area. They also outline a process by which social distancing can be slowly unwound, especially given hygienic measures, like handwashing, and isolating and tracking the sick. They think if people avoid getting big doses of the virus—which can happen in hospitals or via close contact with someone infected—fewer people will become severely ill, “while at the same time developing immunity” that can help finally end the outbreak.

https://www.technologyreview.com/202...wn-in-germany/

[GRG55]

Re: Covid-19

As at 19:17 GMT today

1,837,937 total cases
1,252,216 classified as mild (96%)
50,763 classified as serious or critical (4%)

534,958 cases closed
113,312 deaths worldwide (21%)
421,646 recovered (79%)

FATALITY RATE BY AGE (risk of dying if infected by COVID-19):

AGE	DEATH RATE confirmed cases	DEATH RATE all cases
80+ years old	21.9%	14.8%
70-79 years old		8.0%
60-69 years old		3.6%
50-59 years old		1.3%
40-49 years old		0.4%
30-39 years old		0.2%
20-29 years old		0.2%
10-19 years old		0.2%
0-9 years old		no fatalities

[globaleconomicollaps]

Re: Covid-19

Video of long hair with motorcycle jacket

Let me get this straight. 20% of the population of ... some state or other ... has already had the disease. That means that we have herd immunity. Did i get that right? So I can go to the grocery store without dressing up as an astronaut? That doesn't pass the smell test.

[GRG55]

Re: Covid-19

Let me get this straight. 20% of the population of ... some state or other ... has already had the disease. That means that we have herd immunity. Did i get that right? So I can go to the grocery store without dressing up as an astronaut? That doesn't pass the smell test.

I don't go to the grocery store dressed up as an astronaut. I will admit to trying to minimize the excursions out of the bunker these days. But when I do occasion to the grocery store or pharmacy I don't see anyone else there dressed up like an astronaut either. I shall keep an eye out, you will be easy to spot.

[Mega]

Re: Covid-19

[globaleconomicollaps]

Re: Covid-19

I don't go to the grocery store dressed up as an astronaut. I will admit to trying to minimize the excursions out of the bunker these days. But when I do occasion to the grocery store or pharmacy I don't see anyone else there dressed up like an astronaut either. I shall keep an eye out, you will be easy to spot.

My answer to that is, Why not? If this is indeed a deadly disease worthy of shutting down the world economy for months ( never happened before ). Than what would possess you to leave the house without a space suit? Remember 12 million dead by June.

Back to my point. If you take a jar of white balls and you replace 20% of them with black balls then it is pretty obvious that most of the black balls are touching white balls. Set the wayback machine to three weeks ago and we would presumably have a 1% of the population infected. If 1% of the balls are black that means many fewer infections. We should just be reaching full gallop now, not slowing down. Like I said, it doesn't pass the smell test.

Something else doesn't seem right. According to you, your chances of dying from COVID-19 are about 10%. Would you drive to work everyday if you thought your chances of dying were anything like 10% over the course of a year or so? Don't misunderstand me. I think that this is a very dangerous disease. It has killed lots of people and will kill lots more. I do take, what to most people seem, absurd precautions. I am just struck by the disconnect between your words and your actions.

[globaleconomicollaps]

Re: Covid-19

One of the things that is most striking about this whole thing is the ~20 fold difference in deaths between Italy and Germany. I just read this which goes a long way towards explaining what is going on:

http://www.docteurpascaleminiou.com/...ts-de-vue.html

Google translate of the French. Originally in Italian.
Coronavirus: Hopes of Dr. Sandro Giannin's Discovery

(...)

"His message gives a lot of hope."

"I don't want to sound overwhelming to you, but I think I have demonstrated the cause of coronavirus lethality. It is only at Blessed Matthew that there are 2 cardiologists to make a lot of effort to perform ultrasounds for a total of 150 beds, and I am one of the two. Terrible fatigue! However, from what some assumed, but could not be sure, we now have the first data. People are admitted to intensive care because of generalized venous thromboembolism, especially pulmonary. In such cases, resuscitation and intubation are of no use since it is first necessary to dissolve the clots, or even prevent these thromboembolisms. If you ventilate a lung where the blood does not arrive, it is not effective! This concerns 9 out of 10 deaths. Because the problem is primarily cardiovascular and not respiratory! It is venous micro-thrombosis, not pneumonia that causes death!

And why do thrombi form? Because inflammation, like what is taught in medical studies, induces thrombosis by a complex but well known pathophysiological mechanism. Therefore ? Contrary to what scientific literature, in particular Chinese, said until mid-March, that anti-inflammatory drugs should not be used, these must be used in practice. Now, in Italy, anti-inflammatories and antibiotics are used (as in the recommendations) and the number of hospital patients is collapsing. Many cases of death, even at the age of 40, had bouts of high fever for 10 to 15 days, which were not treated properly. In this type of situation, the inflammation destroyed everything and prepared the ground for the formation of thrombi. The main problem is not the virus, but the immune reaction that destroys the cells where the virus enters. In fact, our COVID services have never registered patients with rheumatoid arthritis! Because they make cortisone, a powerful anti-inflammatory!

As a result, hospitalizations in Italy are decreasing and it becomes a disease that is treated at home. By taking good care of it at home, you avoid not only hospitalization, but also the risk of thrombosis. It was not easy to understand because the signs of microembolism faded, even at the level of the cardiac ultrasound. But this weekend, I compared the data of the first 50 patients between those who had respiratory problems and those who did not, and the situation appeared very clear. For me, you can start resuming activities again. With a quarantine period, without haste. But it is time to publish this data. There is time for the vaccine. In America and other states that follow the scientific literature that calls NOT to use anti-inflammatory drugs, it's a disaster! Worse than in Italy. While these are old and cheap drugs. "

Coronavirus: espoirs de la découverte du Dr Sandro Giannin (traduction)

(...)

" Son message donne beaucoup d'espoir."

«Je ne veux pas vous sembler accablant, mais je pense avoir démontré la cause de la létalité des coronavirus. Il n'y a qu'à Blessed Matthew qu'il y a 2 cardiologues à faire beaucoup d'efforts pour réaliser des échographies pour un total de 150 lits, et je suis l'un des deux. Terrible fatigue ! Cependant, de ce que certains supposaient, mais ne pouvaient pas être sûrs, nous avons maintenant les premières données. Les gens sont admis en réanimation à cause d'une thrombo-embolie veineuse généralisée, en particulier pulmonaire. Dans de tels cas, les réanimations et les intubations ne sont d'aucune utilité car il faut tout d'abord dissoudre les caillots, voire prévenir ces thromboembolies. Si vous ventilez un poumon où le sang n'arrive pas, ce n'est pas efficace ! Cela concerne 9 décès sur 10. Parce que le problème est d'abord cardiovasculaire et pas respiratoire ! C'est la micro-thrombose veineuse, et non la pneumonie qui cause le décès !

Et pourquoi les thrombus se forment-ils? Parce que l'inflammation, comme ce qui est enseignée lors des études de médecine, induit une thrombose par un mécanisme physiopathologique complexe mais bien connu. Donc ? Contrairement à ce que la littérature scientifique, en particulier chinoise, disait jusqu'à la mi-mars, que les anti-inflammatoires ne devaient pas être utilisés, ceux-ci doivent l'être en pratique. Maintenant, en Italie, des anti-inflammatoires et des antibiotiques sont utilisés (comme dans les recommandations) et le nombre de patients hospitalisés s'effondre. De nombreux cas de décès, même à l'âge de 40 ans, avaient des accès de fièvre élevée pendant 10 à 15 jours, qui n'étaient pas traités correctement. Dans ce type de situations, l'inflammation a tout détruit et a préparé le terrain pour la formation de thrombus. Le principal problème n'est pas le virus, mais la réaction immunitaire qui détruit les cellules où le virus pénètre. En fait, nos services COVID n'ont jamais enregistré de patients atteints de polyarthrite rhumatoïde! Parce qu'ils fabriquent de la cortisone, un puissant anti-inflammatoire!

Par conséquent, les hospitalisations en Italie diminuent et cela devient une maladie qui est traitée à domicile. En en prenant bien soin à domicile, vous évitez non seulement l'hospitalisation, mais aussi le risque thrombotique. Ce n'était pas facile à comprendre car les signes de microembolie se sont estompés, même au niveau de l'échographie cardiaque. Mais ce week-end, j'ai comparé les données des 50 premiers patients entre ceux qui avaient des troubles respiratoires et ceux qui n'en avaient pas et la situation est apparue très claire. Pour moi, vous pouvez recommencer à reprendre les activités. Avec une période de quarantaire, sans précipitation. Mais il est temps de publier ces données. Il y a le temps pour le vaccin. En Amérique et dans d'autres États qui suivent la littérature scientifique qui appelle à NE PAS utiliser d'anti-inflammatoires, c'est un désastre! Pire qu'en Italie. Alors que ce sont des médicaments anciens et bon marché. "



10 avril 2020 => https://buongiornonews.it/coronaviru...prof-giannini/

[jk]

Re: Covid-19

you need 60-70% immunity to produce herd immunity.

we have no idea whether covid-19 antibodies in fact confer immunity. some illnesses, e.g. chickenpox, produce lifelong immunity. some produce no immunity whatsoever, in spite of the production of antibodies. the most plausible analyses i've read would predict that covid-19 antibodies are likely to produce immunity lasting 6-30 months.

the low end, say 6-8 months would be a shame, because we're unlikely to have a vaccine in that time frame. also there is some evidence that re-infection may be more dangerous than the original infection via the production of an overly vigorous immune response, aka "cytokine storm.".

12 months and up give us a reasonable chance of getting to a vaccine.