Mean time in Spain

[jk]

Re: Mean time in Spain

thank you, shiny. that's terrific.

[santafe2]

Re: Mean time in Spain

Spain is a particularly troubling example of mismanaging the COVID-19 outbreak. While the focus in Europe has been on Italy, Spain is in a more difficult situation. One in 582 citizens of Italy have been diagnosed and one in 620 citizens of Spain have been diagnosed with COVID-19. But the spread rate in Spain is currently twice that of Italy, (average over the last 5 days). We see a similar situation in the US where the focus is on New York but the most troubling location is New Jersey where the spread rate is twice that of New York based on population.

[globaleconomicollaps]

Re: Mean time in Spain

Time spent looking at exponential graphs:

If you are tired of looking at exponential graphs you might enjoy listening to an exponential. Found on Metafilter today.

Dealing with corona virus: Jone Uria sings an equation
March 30, 2020 1:31 PM

KN+1 − KN = KN.E.p

The Basque-language newspaper Berria has been posting a series of videos recorded at home by local musicians and authors to their YouTube channel. This morning (April 30) they uploaded a video by Jone Uria Albizuri singing about a mathematical formula used to model the spread of infectious diseases and how we can change some of variables. Jone Uria is a bertsolari, a performer of traditional Basque improvised sung poetry. She also has a degree in mathematics.

[jk]

Re: Mean time in Spain

at the regional hospital here n95 masks are in such short supply that

1. they may only be used by doctors and nurses whose activities directly produce aerosols, such as suctioning out airway tubes. no n95 masks for e.g. the nurses who must enter the rooms of covid-19 patients for more ordinary care, and

2. the n95 masks are re-used after various forms of attempted decontamination.

the hospital is at 70% occupancy as of last night, with 8 covid patients on vents, and the numbers rising every day.

this is one of the most prestigious hospitals in the country.

i guess they haven't gotten the memo that it's all hype.

it is just 3 days since i wrote the post above, in which i said there were 8 patients on vents. there are now 34 patients on vents, so the number doubled every 1.5 days. just hype?

[Mega]

Re: Mean time in Spain

No one is saying you have not got an outbreak, you have........do you have 6% death rate?

Mike

[Woodsman]

Re: Mean time in Spain

it is just 3 days since i wrote the post above, in which i said there were 8 patients on vents. there are now 34 patients on vents, so the number doubled every 1.5 days. just hype?

Quit that noise, JK. You are not the self-appointed arbiter of truth and reality here. And nobody elected you chief censor. People disagree with regard to the extent of the severity compared with other outbreaks. They disagree with regard to the wisdom of putting the world economy at such an unprecedented risk. People disagree and there's everything right in enabling the airing of those disagreements.

I'd much prefer to see disagreement than have us be censored or censor ourselves. Already in the larger social network sites, any post which raises questions or is otherwise less than 101% in line with elite opinion and consensus is starting to be removed. YouTube videos are being blocked and replaced with messages to contact the "authorities" for "truth." It smacks of Soviet Russia and leads me to wonder if they won't just up the ante soon and start calling for detaining people, or block the internet to any quash dissent?

Let people speak and for goodness sake, stop hectoring them.

[jk]

Re: Mean time in Spain

Let people speak and for goodness sake, stop hectoring them.

let the facts speak for themselves. i'm just passing on information as i receive it. if those facts bother you, block my posts,

[Woodsman]

Re: Mean time in Spain

let the facts speak for themselves. i'm just passing on information as i receive it. if those facts bother you, block my posts,

Facts are welcome. Error, too. Hectoring and attempts to shut people up, not so much.

[Mega]

Re: Mean time in Spain

Look, am just trying to get to truth of the matter.
Its very upsetting to say the lest, as I said before my own father died this way.

We are presented with a picture of Hell, like something from a 1970's sci-fi/horror film........but the Stats from Japan/South Korea/Germany don't bear out what we being told to expect.

What I suspect is this, China informed them what it is......"They" decied it was not too much to worry about. Then people started dropping like flies in Italy, this suddenly put the fear of God into them.......had it mu-tate-ed?......was this something else....?

"They" had to react, even if it was an over reaction.......

As the Stats come in we see.

Cheers
Mike

[jk]

Re: Mean time in Spain

Facts are welcome. Error, too. Hectoring and attempts to shut people up, not so much.

i don't recall telling anyone to shut up, nor implying it [though i do disagree with people at times]. please point it out to me, and i will apologize since that is not my intent.

[Woodsman]

Re: Mean time in Spain

You didn't and I don't want to get into this with you. I said my piece.

My bottom line here is though while few thoughtful people deny this is a serious virus, it's the terror and scare tactics being put up by the same corrupt politicians and their corporate media propaganda outlets that have been playing on our fears and lying to us non stop since 2001 and well before that burns me. The same that gave us TSA and Homeland Security and ubiquitous surveillance and 200K+ dead in response to 3K casualties after 9/11. The same that gave us the banker bailout and just doubled down on another even bigger bailout last week. The same self-serving neoliberal professional-managerial class that has so eviscerated our ability to manufacture that the country that 50 years ago put a man on the moon just because we could now can't seem to figure out how to scale production of paper masks. The same medical cartel who while assuring us that all they care about is saving lives, are content to see the national life expectancy drop year after year without so much as lifting a finger to stop it if it in any way threatens their profits. So when these same lying, self-serving sacks of bat guano tell us that after experiencing 38 to 54 million flu infections since October 2019, with a half million hospitalizations, and at least 24,000 deaths, we have no choice but to shut down the country and hunker down in our homes, you really think that it's some sort of mental or character deficiency to doubt the word of our highly credentialed professional-managerial scumbags? Seems to me once a man lies to you, once an organization has shown time and again its willingness to lie and cover up to protect its interests over the interests of the public, they've lost any expectation of a presumption of truth. We should all be from Missouri and say "show me." Anyone who doesn't harbor even a little bit of suspicion, a little bit of doubt, a little bit of concern that this might be used as cover for more nefarious purposes hasn't been paying much attention. Bless their heart, as my momma used to say. So forgive me if I seem a bit irritated by the whole affair. It stinks to high heaven and as real a threat that it is, I can't imagine a worse crop of leadership - Democrat or Republican/Private Sector or Public - to have to surrender our trust and agency to in a time of crisis. So hell yes, I'm going to question everything. I'll be damned if I'm going to sit quiet about it or let anyone, credentials and status notwithstanding, tell me I can't speak up.

--------------------------------------
A nation of sheep, run by wolves, and owned by pigs.

[globaleconomicollaps]

Re: Mean time in Spain

You know Mr. Woodsman, I find myself agreeing with you. I see that Chris Martenson has reassessed his estimate of the Case Fatality Ratio to 0.4 based on his analysis of the German data. By my calculations that works out to about 1.4 million dead in the US and two hundred and forty thousand in France. Given that you think that the seasonal flu is not a grave enough problem to relinquish civil liberties for, what level of deaths and permanent injury would motivate you to agree that the current lock-down in the US or the much more severe lock-down in France are acceptable policies? What would you do if you were the president or just a state governor?

[Woodsman]

Re: Mean time in Spain

... What would you do if you were the president or just a state governor?

I'm not sure. But if I were king or emperor, I'd hang you by your ankles and let my palace guard go to work on you for lèse-majesté. And then I'd finish my breakfast.

[jk]

Re: Mean time in Spain

i'm not sure the problem is hyping the threat so much as the many ways the threat is being exploited. trying to prevent what might be millions of deaths seems a laudable goal; using that situation to get billions of dollars siphoned to the wealthy, not so much. just as in 2008-9 banks should have been re-organized, stockholders wiped out along with [at least] junior bond holders, the c-suites cleaned out and some c-suite occupants sent to jail, so now the airlines, boeing and i'm not sure which other companies should be going into chapter 11- they were looted by their managements, and in that process had their balance sheets eviscerated. chapter 11 would work fine. i'm not following closely enough to know what other snouts are in the trough, but i'm sure the same applies to many or most of them.

[AlRoz]

Re: Mean time in Spain

you didn't and i don't want to get into this with you. I said my piece.

My bottom line here is though while few thoughtful people deny this is a serious virus, it's the terror and scare tactics being put up by the same corrupt politicians and their corporate media propaganda outlets that have been playing on our fears and lying to us non stop since 2001 and well before that burns me. The same that gave us tsa and homeland security and ubiquitous surveillance and 200k+ dead in response to 3k casualties after 9/11. The same that gave us the banker bailout and just doubled down on another even bigger bailout last week. The same self-serving neoliberal professional-managerial class that has so eviscerated our ability to manufacture that the country that 50 years ago put a man on the moon just because we could now can't seem to figure out how to scale production of paper masks. The same medical cartel who while assuring us that all they care about is saving lives, are content to see the national life expectancy drop year after year without so much as lifting a finger to stop it if it in any way threatens their profits. So when these same lying, self-serving sacks of bat guano tell us that after experiencing 38 to 54 million flu infections since october 2019, with a half million hospitalizations, and at least 24,000 deaths, we have no choice but to shut down the country and hunker down in our homes, you really think that it's some sort of mental or character deficiency to doubt the word of our highly credentialed professional-managerial scumbags? Seems to me once a man lies to you, once an organization has shown time and again its willingness to lie and cover up to protect its interests over the interests of the public, they've lost any expectation of a presumption of truth. We should all be from missouri and say "show me." anyone who doesn't harbor even a little bit of suspicion, a little bit of doubt, a little bit of concern that this might be used as cover for more nefarious purposes hasn't been paying much attention. Bless their heart, as my momma used to say. So forgive me if i seem a bit irritated by the whole affair. It stinks to high heaven and as real a threat that it is, i can't imagine a worse crop of leadership - democrat or republican/private sector or public - to have to surrender our trust and agency to in a time of crisis. So hell yes, i'm going to question everything. I'll be damned if i'm going to sit quiet about it or let anyone, credentials and status notwithstanding, tell me i can't speak up.

--------------------------------------
a nation of sheep, run by wolves, and owned by pigs.

;_tu
+1