Mean time in Spain

[GRG55]

Re: Mean time in Spain

The coronavirus COVID-19 is now present in 199 countries or territories worldwide (that's pretty well everywhere now). In 198 of those countries the virus entered from outside.

Feb 6: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...vel-over-virus
China Lashes Out at Countries Restricting Travel Over Virus


March 26: https://www.aa.com.tr/en/asia-pacifi...avirus/1781148
China bans entry of foreigners to curb coronavirus


Borders matter.

Having said that, this is an international problem and its going to take international cooperation to deal with it effectively. Let's hope our leaders can rise to the occasion and are up to the task...

[lakedaemonian]

Re: Mean time in Spain

Taiichi Ohno's pioneering "just-in-time" manufacturing within the much admired Toyota Production System works fine for making cars or other customized consumer goods.

But the "benefits" of minimum inventories and long, concentrated JIT supply chains in other areas of the economy would appear to have been conclusively refuted. This may be one of the constructive outcomes of this episode.

If we've learned anything either a) point of consumption inventories ("stock the pantry") will increase; b) local distributors will be given incentives to maintain higher minimum stocks of consumables made in distant lands, or c) supply sources will become distributed as manufacturing is brought closer to home.

I really hope we see more of 'c', even though we know it will be inflationary.

The vacuous dilettante that passes for our Prime Minister in 2015 stated Canada could be the first "post-nation state" (whatever the h€££ that means). In 2020 his government has discovered that borders actually matter. Imagine that...

I was asked to write an article that’s being published by the US .MIL tomorrow.

In it, I posit that supply chains will bifurcate.

Non essential novelty rubber dog sh!t made in China? No change

Essential/existential raw/finished materials? Homeland supply chain footprint, with a guaranteed surge capability at minimum.

The US maintains considerable national strategic reserves of commodities/finished goods such as energy, food, health care materials (capacity)

Even Canada maintains a strategic reserve of maple syrup, I learned this from a Canadian Forces fella I worked closely with a few months ago who had his own small supply to try.

But we will likely shift towards capability(local supply chain), not just capacity(local supply).

It’s worth a read of Stan McChrystal’s book “Team of Teams.”

In it, McChrystal posits that we have shifted too far in the continuum towards ruthless efficiency, and too far away from adaptability.

We need to move the needle back towards the middle of that continuum.

Combined with that, we’ve seen a strong shift on the continuum towards disaster relief away from disaster preparedness.

This is due to voters rewarding politicians for relief far more than prepardedness.

It was fairly balanced in the late 80’s, but by 2006 it had shifted decisively towards relief and the trend has continued.

This needle needs to be moved back to a more balanced centre.

I reckon it will be a policy based decision requiring certain categories of existential needs to have not only local capacity(inventory) but capability(production).

[GRG55]

Re: Mean time in Spain

I was asked to write an article that’s being published by the US .MIL tomorrow.

In it, I posit that supply chains will bifurcate.

Non essential novelty rubber dog sh!t made in China? No change

Essential/existential raw/finished materials? Homeland supply chain footprint, with a guaranteed surge capability at minimum.

The US maintains considerable national strategic reserves of commodities/finished goods such as energy, food, health care materials (capacity)

Even Canada maintains a strategic reserve of maple syrup, I learned this from a Canadian Forces fella I worked closely with a few months ago who had his own small supply to try.

But we will likely shift towards capability(local supply chain), not just capacity(local supply).

It’s worth a read of Stan McChrystal’s book “Team of Teams.”

In it, McChrystal posits that we have shifted too far in the continuum towards ruthless efficiency, and too far away from adaptability.

We need to move the needle back towards the middle of that continuum.

Combined with that, we’ve seen a strong shift on the continuum towards disaster relief away from disaster preparedness.

This is due to voters rewarding politicians for relief far more than prepardedness.

It was fairly balanced in the late 80’s, but by 2006 it had shifted decisively towards relief and the trend has continued.

This needle needs to be moved back to a more balanced centre.

I reckon it will be a policy based decision requiring certain categories of existential needs to have not only local capacity(inventory) but capability(production).

You can't claim to have a "Maple Economy" without some apparently highly valued "Central Syrup Bank" reserves.

Three Quebec men sentenced for $18-million maple syrup heist

https://montrealgazette.com/news/loc...e-syrup-heist/

More seriously, I have been pondering how this plays out post-virus. I hope you are correct, but I see a potential alternate scenario.

China will still have a very large amount of surplus production capacity for "everything". I think the temptation will be to take the easy way out and re-start that capacity and restore the logistics chain to move that stuff around the planet. There are a lot of vested interests in restoring the old system.

Money might be spent on larger local stockpiles to overcome the supply chain risk, instead of repatriating and distributing production points. That's the danger imo.

And, quite frankly, if China comes out of this stronger and the western democratic economies come out of this weaker, it'll be an absolute catastrophe for mankind some time down the road (I don't expect to be around to see that, thankfully).

On ruthless efficiency vs adaptability, Nassim Taleb's 2012 book "Antifragile" also comes to mind.

And as for relief vs preparedness, it does seem that our leaders, no matter how incompetent, gain popularity from responding to disasters - some their own making - as a frightened population clamour for hope. We get the behaviour we reward...

[jpatter666]

Re: Mean time in Spain

Taiichi Ohno's pioneering "just-in-time" manufacturing within the much admired Toyota Production System works fine for making cars or other customized consumer goods.

But the "benefits" of minimum inventories and long, concentrated JIT supply chains in other areas of the economy would appear to have been conclusively refuted. This may be one of the constructive outcomes of this episode.

If we've learned anything either a) point of consumption inventories ("stock the pantry") will increase; b) local distributors will be given incentives to maintain higher minimum stocks of consumables made in distant lands, or c) supply sources will become distributed as manufacturing is brought closer to home.

I really hope we see more of 'c', even though we know it will be inflationary.

The vacuous dilettante that passes for our Prime Minister in 2015 stated Canada could be the first "post-nation state" (whatever the h€££ that means). In 2020 his government has discovered that borders actually matter. Imagine that...

Ironically one of the areas Trump got right even if for the wrong reasons. Expect that to be a talking point in the Fall.

China will definitely take a hit from this as many companies pull out or lessen China-dependence for either strategic or diversification reasons. It's unclear to what extent this will impact China.

This *may* start the rise of Africa which is one of the last bastions of low-cost labor and has the added advantage of not being a strategic competitor to the West.

[jk]

Re: Mean time in Spain

preparedness isn't sexy, isn't cheap, and doesn't produce visible results. americans won't vote for it.
it's hard to run on the basis of a theoretical n lives NOT lost. it requires a more thoughtful electorate than we have.

and i agree with you, grg, that the tendency will be to revert to established supply chains instead of investing in more expensive ones. the only way the latter will happen is if there are laws passed with national security justifications, requiring certain products to be produced domestically or in a handful of "reliable" partner countries. this is the case with defense goods already, no?

[GRG55]

Re: Mean time in Spain

Ironically one of the areas Trump got right even if for the wrong reasons. Expect that to be a talking point in the Fall.

China will definitely take a hit from this as many companies pull out or lessen China-dependence for either strategic or diversification reasons. It's unclear to what extent this will impact China.

This *may* start the rise of Africa which is one of the last bastions of low-cost labor and has the added advantage of not being a strategic competitor to the West.

I agree, the President will again campaign on that Fortress America policy and remind people. But right now his demands that "GM do this" or "Ford do that" aren't looking all that effective, and I'm not sure he has the attention span to actually push through the policy linkages needed to move the new government money where it should really be going in that regard. Might come across as too much like what the Chinese have been doing?

If there is a revival of manufacturing and supply closer to home I think it will be Mexico that will be the winner, not Africa.

[jpatter666]

Re: Mean time in Spain

I agree, the President will again campaign on that Fortress America policy and remind people. But right now his demands that "GM do this" or "Ford do that" aren't looking all that effective, and I'm not sure he has the attention span to actually push through the policy linkages needed to move the new government money where it should really be going in that regard. Might come across as too much like what the Chinese have been doing?

If there is a revival of manufacturing and supply closer to home I think it will be Mexico that will be the winner, not Africa.

re: Mexico and Africa

Short term, agree. Longer term I think I could be right *if* (and that's a BIG if) any African countries can get their political act together to make the idea viable.

[shiny!]

Re: Mean time in Spain

preparedness isn't sexy, isn't cheap, and doesn't produce visible results. americans won't vote for it.
it's hard to run on the basis of a theoretical n lives NOT lost. it requires a more thoughtful electorate than we have.

and i agree with you, grg, that the tendency will be to revert to established supply chains instead of investing in more expensive ones. the only way the latter will happen is if there are laws passed with national security justifications, requiring certain products to be produced domestically or in a handful of "reliable" partner countries. this is the case with defense goods already, no?

This is half the battle. The other half concerns changing the priorities of companies that exist for the profits of their executives and shareholders. It doesn't matter where this stuff gets made if there's no will to spend money on purchasing and storing it. Too many companies used their profits for share buybacks instead of investing those profits in their communities. The for-profit medical industry is no exception. These companies could have spent a portion of their profits to stockpile masks and other gear for their hospitals, clinics and the safety of their employees. They chose not to.

Non-profit hospitals dependent on federal and state funding got short shrift, too. Pres. Bush ordered a stockpile of masks and protective gear back in 2005 (?) IIRC. It mostly got used up in the swine flu epidemic in 2009. It was never replenished.

After 9/11 I started asking friends who work in hospitals if their hospital was preparing for, say, a bio-weapon attack. Could they sustain being locked down for a period of time? Did they have enough masks, gloves, food, etc? The answer was always, "No. Nothing's changed." Of course, there was plenty of will on the part of our lawmakers to treat each and every one of us like a potential terrorist under the guise of keeping us safe. But this epidemic shows how much our lives really matter to TPTB.

[Mega]

Re: Mean time in Spain

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/a...-crippled.html

[Techdread]

Re: Mean time in Spain

My Father died the way these people are dying now, I know the pain, the feeling of help-less...just waiting for him to pass.
I am fighting back tears writing this, but you know something?..........Gordon always taught me to be objective, exam the facts!

Around 35,000 UK people die like him that every year....that's 675 a week......the question that needs to be asked are these an EXTRA 675 or (as I suspect) people dying from "China Virus" whom would have died to any number of "Uk Virus"?

WE simply don't have stats in yet.

Mike

Oh, please we all die, that's just the human condition.
The facts we have seen what the Chinese had to do to contain their epidemic, we have seen northern Italy's hospitals get overrun by the sick not just the dying.
Your question is ******* irrelevant, left unchecked we might as well burn down all our hospitals.

Can you imagine what would happen if governments said to the worlds scientists the top five flu strains don't bother develop a vaccine for it, and those anti-virals just bin them we will just manage when these patients get to the hospital?

[Mega]

Re: Mean time in Spain

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/a...ier-virus.html


https://hitchensblog.mailonsunday.co.uk/

[Techdread]

Re: Mean time in Spain

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/a...ier-virus.html


https://hitchensblog.mailonsunday.co.uk/

Your quoting the Daily Hate, you do know I am black.

You know that in Britain the police enforce by consent, if people deem the law to draconian then.....

[Woodsman]

Re: Mean time in Spain

Your quoting the Daily Hate, you do know I am black...

Excuse me, but what in Sam Hill does your race have to do with the price of oranges in California? I don't play cards, least of all race cards. So no, I had no consciousness about your race or anyone else's here. And I don't how it's relevant either to Orwell's all too prescient and ever timely novel or the actualities of the present crisis as reported by the United Kingdom's third-highest-circulation daily in publication since 1896.

If you choose to convince yourself that there is no political motive at play here, that's your privilege. Carry on, but don't expect me to consent to this hallucination. The Democrats, Never Trumpers, and the Media are determined to use this virus to try to defeat Trump in November. CNN reported that Trump “is dodging responsibility” for the coronavirus. They continue to push him to lock down the country and are trying to blame every death on him for failing to act. Only a few months ago they were accusing him of being a dictator, an authoritarian in the mold of Putin. "Literally Hitler." Now they complain that he's insufficiently authoritarian. "Lock us down, shut down businesses, enforce it with police power!"

Meanwhile, one in five people have already lost their jobs and unemployment is on track to reach Great Depression levels. If it's not clear to folks that the usual suspects are intent on making this political even as they cheer the destruction of the economy, it's because they choose to ignore the obvious reality. But hey, it's a free financial oligarchy. Do what you want. Just leave me out of it.

And lay off Mike. He's entitled to his opinion just as much as anyone else.

[Mega]

Re: Mean time in Spain

[shiny!]

Re: Mean time in Spain

Time spent looking at exponential graphs: