Mean time in Spain

[Southernguy]

Re: Mean time in Spain

if true, why are "oldies" dying at much higher rates when infected?

Preliminary version: https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1....24.20042937v1

[Woodsman]

Re: Mean time in Spain

It's not the disease that terrifies, it's the "cures" proposed.

The most high profile of these is Democratic Congresswoman Rashida Tlaib, who this month put together a policy proposal for an “Automatic Boost to Communities Act” that would distribute cash payments to US citizens by way of pre-paid digital cash cards. Ms Tlaib proposed that a $2tn programme be funded by the US mint producing two $1tn platinum coins, which would then be sold to the US Federal Reserve in exchange for equivalent cash liquidity. Her bill also proposed that these emergency cards be converted into a permanent Treasury-managed digital public currency wallet system.

Meanwhile, an early version of the alternative $2tn Coronavirus Aid Relief and Economic Security (CARES) act, which passed last week, considered rolling out Fed-managed digital dollar wallets to all US residents, citizens and businesses to facilitate cash distributions. Although excluded from the final bill, the idea could reappear in future packages if the US stimulus is expanded.

In a March 12 discussion paper, it noted that such digital currencies could help central banks push beyond the constraints of monetary policy — such as the fact that cash does not pay less than zero interest. The BoE said that a CBDC remunerated at negative rates would “theoretically widen the policy options available and avoid the economic costs of having monetary policy hit the effective lower bound, potentially improving economic outcomes”.

Some privacy advocates fear a CBDC could be combined with a digital identification system to help governments in the battle against coronavirus by facilitating contact tracing as well as immunity and vaccine tracking.

Rushing Out Untested Digital Finance Fixes For Covid-19 Is Folly (FT paywall)

"They" are going for broke and using this event to roll out their wish list. Dumping cash in exchange for central bank crypto and digital ID that uses generalized vaccination as a platform for digital identity are only the first. Gordon Brown wants a global government.

[Down Under]

Re: Mean time in Spain

We will be wrestling with this for some time.

When is it appropriate to "re-start"? What is the criteria?

And, based on the above, do you still see oil at $80 in 2021?

Clearly, you have some very good insights, but this poor old bloke in Sydney, who's getting close to retirement, struggles to get a good handle on your overall mindset, that's all.

Having said that, very much appreciate your posts.

[GRG55]

Re: Mean time in Spain

And, based on the above, do you still see oil at $80 in 2021?

Clearly, you have some very good insights, but this poor old bloke in Sydney, who's getting close to retirement, struggles to get a good handle on your overall mindset, that's all.

Having said that, very much appreciate your posts.

There was a case to be made for that, but that was before the coronavirus came out of "left field" (read China) and caused a stunning amount of demand destruction.

I have no idea how long it's going to take to rebuild the global economy after this, or how much oil demand may be impaired for years to come. The issue is going to be to create aggregate demand; and how do we do that with so many people's work, income, savings destroyed?

[lakedaemonian]

Re: Mean time in Spain

We will be wrestling with this for some time.

When is it appropriate to "re-start"? What is the criteria?

Re-start normal family life, such as visiting and hugging the grandparents.
Re-start normal community life, such as speaking in person with your neighbours and friends, share a meal.
Re-start a business.
Re-start a job (that cannot be done over a computer from the basement).
Re-start a club, team sport,


Where to from here? How does the era after this crisis unfold?

Do people develop a preference to avoid cities?
Do we see the re-emergence of the nation-state (Brexit to the power of n, worldwide), isolationist in inclination?
Do we develop a habit of being suspicious of others and maintaining a deliberate distance?
Do we continue the current path of "applying the paddles" of extending the debt supercycle to jumpstart our economies, or has it run its course and now force the need for different economic model(s) built out of the wreckage?


And finally, are we all going to come our senses and recognize the enormous price we are paying for doing the kinds of deals we have done with China? For nothing more than a short term economic gain...


Acting completely in character:

China exporting faulty medical equipment as manufacturing rebounds


China’s manufacturing rebounded in March now that Beijing began opening factories following the easing of anti-coronavirus measures, and the Netherlands became the latest nation to reject medical gear made in the country because of concerns over shoddy equipment, according to reports...

...Meanwhile, the Netherlands joined Spain, Turkey, Georgia and the Czech Republic in rejecting China-made medical gear, claiming the items were substandard and questioning their quality as the number of global coronavirus cases passes 826,000...

If it were up to me, I’d be looking at a viral version of Krulak’s Three Block War concept.

USMC General Krulak had a concept of 3 concurrent but different military operations being conducted across 3 contiguous blocks

mid-intensity conflict
peacekeeping
humanitarian operations

Apply it to home countering a virus

Respond to the virus quickly and aggressively
Reboot socioeconomic activity
Recover socioeconomic activity via new norms

Doing it concurrently and non linearly across distinct “blocks”, rather than the current consecutive and linear action.

And cycle thru respond, reboot, recover as needed with each viral wave.

Get back to normal-ish.

Global travel seems to be returning to 1970’s capacity in the short term, which is a huge hindrance for my frequent travel.

If I had to guess, international travel is effectively liquidated for 12-24 months with airplane boneyards maxed out.

And even regional inter-country travel will be a challenge.

So we shift our radius from just home, to just local community, to just region within country, to just own country, to just trusted countries, to open travel again someday unless a broader conflict disrupts it again.

I’m of the belief that much of what is happening is like hitting the fast forward button on an old VCR for 3 things

1)People with comorbidities may die sooner.

2)Businesses that already have terminal cancer will die sooner.

I’m all for using tech to help us solve this problem.

But only under the auspices of opt-in open source software.

Bring in a guy like a Linus Torvolds of open source Linux fame, credibility, and trust.

Even the often authoritarian Singaporean’s are using an opt-in only model, with about 20% uptake(straight from a Singers classmate involved in it).

It uses blue tooth handshakes for backtracking, only shared if user gives permission.

Singers 3 telecom providers are dobbing in people moving(well, their phones) who are confirmed positive during 14 day stand down.

I would like to see a data comparison chart on “accelerated/excess deaths”

No politician would be caught dead standing next to such a thing, but referencing it tangentially while being pushed hard by offset personalities is a different story.

“How much is a life worth?” Is probably the ultimate nuclear question to ask a politician.

But the response to it in this case is “how many jobs is a life worth?”

We need to decide quickly.

3) accelerating us all towards discovery of whether Thucydides Trap exists between China and the US.

[Down Under]

Re: Mean time in Spain

There was a case to be made for that, but that was before the coronavirus came out of "left field" (read China) and caused a stunning amount of demand destruction.

I have no idea how long it's going to take to rebuild the global economy after this, or how much oil demand may be impaired for years to come. The issue is going to be to create aggregate demand; and how do we do that with so many people's work, income, savings destroyed?

Okay, now I have a clear idea where you're coming from. That's one of the difficulties I have reading iTulip; if person x makes a statement, such as yourself, who has a lot of insight into the oil industry, I need to mark the point in time such statement was made.

Therefore, do you still consider the oil majors such as XOM & BP, for example, a buy? I'm not going to necessarily act on your advice, but if you said no, they're no longer a buy because of the coronavirus, then I'll definitely not buy.

P.S. Maybe what you've stated above infers that they're not a buy, but the written medium has its limits. I just want to be crystal clear on this one.

[Woodsman]

Re: Mean time in Spain

..."They" are going for broke and using this event to roll out their wish list. Dumping cash in exchange for central bank crypto and digital ID that uses generalized vaccination as a platform for digital identity are only the first. Gordon Brown wants a global government.

Moving right along:

The bulletin highlights how public’s fears are high with respect to contracting the virus through the exchange of paper currency. While most studies show the risk of getting COVID-19 in this manner is low; the perception and the interest of the public on the subject of spreading the virus through paper currency is high enough that many central banks have taken actions to ensure trust in commerce is maintained.

Bank For Central Banks Targets Digital Currencies Amid COVID-19 Fallout

And..

Europe's data protection watchdog has called for a single coronavirus app to be used across the EU, instead of every country making its own. Several countries are developing tracking apps, but privacy advocates warn of the dangers they might pose. The European Data Protection Supervisor says a single EU app with strong data protection built in is the best solution to the coronavirus pandemic. "We will not be able to solve it with national tools only," he warned.

Coronavirus: Call for single EU tracking app with data protection

Meanwhile, the People’s Bank of China held a press conference in Beijing to check on the progress of continued research and development of central bank digital currency. The People’s Bank of China has completed basic function development for a digital yuan. This puts China one step closer to issuing its CBDC (Central Bank Digital Currency).

China Will ‘Undoubtedly’ Pursue Digital Yuan, Central Bank Says

[shiny!]

Dr. Michael Burry Blasts Covid-19 Response

https://www.zerohedge.com/health/mic...economic-force

excerpts from the excerpts:

If COVID-19 testing were universal, the fatality rate would be less than 0.2%.
This is no justication for sweeping government policies, lacking any and all nuance, that destroy the lives, jobs, and businesses of the other 99.8%. ...

Prudent plan:

1) Standardize on chloroquine and azithromycin -cheap and available
2) Sick and elderly voluntarily shelter in place.
3) Americans lead their normal lives with extra hand washing and special care if around elderly.

Saving the economy means life, not murder.

Additionally, in an email to Bloomberg News, Burry wrote that "universal stay-at-home is the most devastating economic force in modern history... And it is man-made. It very suddenly reverses the gains of underprivileged groups, kills and creates drug addicts, beats and terrorizes women and children in violent now-jobless households, and more. It bleeds deep anguish and suicide." ...

The U.S. Policy Response
“If there was ever a time for the government to stimulate with fiscal and monetary policy, it is now. Unfortunately, the U.S. has been adding $3 for every $1 of new GDP over a very long time, and interest rates were already near zero. Still, nothing is more important now that loans to small and mid-sized businesses, and the U.S. Treasury, backed by the Fed, is providing that liquidity, which is vital.”

Potential Treatments
“It’s pretty clear that hydrochloroquine is doing something good for many Covid-19 patients. The standard in medicine is a placebo-controlled double-blind study. But there is no time for that. The technocrats at the top are getting this wrong. Do the studies, make the vaccines, but allow doctors to have what they feel is working now. Don’t take tools or drugs out of the treating doctors’ hands. Trump should use the Defense Production Act more liberally in this area.”

“A more nuanced approach would be for at risk groups — the obese, old and already-sick — to shelter in place, to execute widespread mandatory testing, and to ID and track as necessary while allowing society to function. Again, Trump should get the massive contract manufacturers like Flextronics to make testing machines.”

Japan’s Response
“I believe Prime Minister Shinzo Abe is trying his best to manage through the situation without shuttering the economy. He sees what it has done to the U.S., and would rather not force a shut in, but instead asks for common sense. Japan has certain features — such as a largely lawful and well-educated society — that make this more possible. As do Taiwan, Singapore, Korea.”

Business Recovery
“Economically speaking, we have to realize the policy-driven demand shock will be resolved by 2021. But Japan and the U.S. are putting more than 20% of the GDP into new fiscal stimulus, and easy money will be the rule. Those things will all bring stock and debt markets back.”

“Countries will also look to bring supply chains home, and many employees will need retraining with higher cost. When we start working and playing again, inflation may be in store. The other big point is that consumers have learned new behaviors, which will drive business churn.”

[Woodsman]

Re: Dr. Michael Burry Blasts Covid-19 Response

https://www.zerohedge.com/health/mic...economic-force

excerpts from the excerpts:

This is no justication for sweeping government policies, lacking any and all nuance, that destroy the lives, jobs, and businesses of the other 99.8%. ...

Prudent plan:1) Standardize on chloroquine and azithromycin -cheap and available
2) Sick and elderly voluntarily shelter in place.
3) Americans lead their normal lives with extra hand washing and special care if around elderly.
Saving the economy means life, not murder.

Additionally, in an email to Bloomberg News, Burry wrote that "universal stay-at-home is the most devastating economic force in modern history... And it is man-made. It very suddenly reverses the gains of underprivileged groups, kills and creates drug addicts, beats and terrorizes women and children in violent now-jobless households, and more. It bleeds deep anguish and suicide." ...

Bu...bu...but muh models, muh rational analysis?



How many would you sacrifice?

[jk]

Re: Dr. Michael Burry Blasts Covid-19 Response

local hosp standard algorithm includes plaquinil, but not azithromycin. instead adds an anti-retroviral drug. who knows what's best? we need better data. but it's not the case that anybody's hands are tied from prescribing plaquinil.

[Woodsman]

Re: Dr. Michael Burry Blasts Covid-19 Response

How many would you sacrifice?


Early yet, but domestic violence on rise


New York City sees surge in major crime

[lakedaemonian]

Re: Dr. Michael Burry Blasts Covid-19 Response

How many would you sacrifice?


Early yet, but domestic violence on rise


New York City sees surge in major crime

Define the sacrifice of “who, what, when, where, why, how”

Sacrifice some people with existing comorbidities likely to die from them anyway?

Sure.

Sacrifice some companies and jobs with existing comorbidities likely to die from then anyway?

Sure.

Those are super easy for leadership when the cameras and microphones are off.

Where the math gets fuzzy is in communicating the conversion between X number of old/sick people for Y number of extra months everyone has to work to recover the socioeconomic output gap lost.

That’s a THX1138 like algorithm to determine......

....when society will support turning the old/sick into Soylent Green and gladly eat them.

[jk]

Re: Mean time in Spain

major regional hospital

3/27 8 patients on vents
3/30 34 patients on vents
4/2 46 patients on vents
4/4 56 patients on vents

4/9 65 on vents - still rising but more slowly

[shiny!]

Re: Mean time in Spain

My friend and boss (age 56) just reminded me of when he was sick the first week of January. I remember him telling me how his lungs felt like they were on fire. He's had both viral and bacterial pneumonia before; he said with those his lungs felt "wet" but this felt like there were needles in his lungs. When he coughed he said it was the most painful thing he'd ever experienced. He kept telling me, "my lungs have never hurt like this before."

He had a low-grade fever of around 100, but his normal temp is usually around 97 so 100 is fairly high for him.

He went to Urgent Care where they gave him Zithromax (half of the "magic combo"). Other than missing a few days of work he got better with no lingering complications. Neither his wife nor son who live with him got sick. No one else in our office has gotten sick, except for one elderly woman who got the flu (confirmed test).

He had not recently travelled or knowingly associated with anyone who had recently travelled. He wants to get tested to see if he's had it.

[FrankL]

Re: Mean time in Spain

My friend and boss (age 56) just reminded me of when he was sick the first week of January. I remember him telling me how his lungs felt like they were on fire. He's had both viral and bacterial pneumonia before; he said with those his lungs felt "wet" but this felt like there were needles in his lungs. When he coughed he said it was the most painful thing he'd ever experienced. He kept telling me, "my lungs have never hurt like this before."

He had a low-grade fever of around 100, but his normal temp is usually around 97 so 100 is fairly high for him.

He went to Urgent Care where they gave him Zithromax (half of the "magic combo"). Other than missing a few days of work he got better with no lingering complications. Neither his wife nor son who live with him got sick. No one else in our office has gotten sick, except for one elderly woman who got the flu (confirmed test).

He had not recently travelled or knowingly associated with anyone who had recently travelled. He wants to get tested to see if he's had it.

It's extremely unlikely he's had Covid-19 if he hadn't travelled to Wuhan right before his symptoms.
Considering the exponential growth in infections that goes with community spread, the area where he lived would have been a hotspot of covid19 hospitizations by mid February.