Mean time in Spain

[Mega]

Re: Mean time in Spain

[kbird]

Re: Mean time in Spain

The arrogance and intellectual hubris of some folks here is simply astounding. Yesterday I was asked what I would do in response to this crisis were I a national leader. The question was posed, not to gain insight or out of any interest in understanding my point of view, but rather as a back-handed insult intended to put an ignorant rube in his place. I gave it the consideration it deserved at the time, so too for the person who posed it.

But it got me to thinking just how arrogant some of us here - not to mention those leading the various nation-states and the international public health agencies - are to imagine that they can reduce the complexity of this issue to a single set of answers and responses. And should anyone disagree with a proposal that threatens to seriously disrupt all the national economies everywhere at once, those here and elsewhere so filled with hubris inevitably throw out a line intended not to further debate or advance knowledge, but to shut down dissent:

They pose it in terms of "well, just how many people are you willing to see die in order to save the economy?"

I'm sure these interrogators feel a surge of satisfaction at uttering these words, exceeded only by their delight once it's clear to them that their target refuses to play along. "See, you have no plan and so therefore shut up." But what they fail to understand is that the global economy is a delicate ecosystem analogous to a rain forest. All the scientific genius of the world could not create one acre of rain forest, despite their vast experience and impressive credentials. There are billions of interactions by countless millions of actors most of whom we don't possess even the faintest knowledge of their existence. We could not hope to create such a complex system because we lack complete knowledge.

This is similarly true for the billions of interactions by countless millions of actors that make up the ecosystem of the global economy. In the same way dispensing with an otherwise insignificant microbe might lead to the inadvertent destruction of a biome, so too is the global economy similarly interconnected that rash decisions in one part of the world will have dire consequences in another. Those who ask "how many people would you sacrifice" arrogantly assume that the choices they advance are free from similar consequences. Shutting down whole economies might be just as likely to cause more deaths than the present virus stalking the world. It may lead to mass starvation or a longer term increase in mortality due to malnutrition or mental illness, which in turn might mean even more deaths due to decreased resilience against common and ordinary ailments or some other novel disease yet to arrive.

The myopia of those here and elsewhere who have convinced themselves that theirs is the only rational approach is staggering to witness. These are complex and dynamic systems with many multiple inputs, most of which we do not even recognize. To imagine that they can be reduced to simplistic formulas and simple cause and effect equations would be laughable if it were not for the tragedy it portends. The whole is greater than the sum of the parts. Of course what comes immediately to mind is the debate - if that is the proper term for it - regarding climate change. I won't rehash that here, but as is true with that controversy, there are no shortages of individuals here and elsewhere who simply are incapable of countenancing any debate or dissent. Anyone who dares is considered unserious at best and hopelessly ignorant at worst, never mind the social stigma and ostracizing.

We are told to stay home, distance ourselves socially, close our businesses, cease our activities, all to "flatten the curve." But there is a political element at work here, despite attempts by some to deny it. Those on the far and center left immediately use it as another cudgel against the dreaded, hated Trump. Those on the center and far right see it as another lever of power to wield toward their desired ends. All centers of power see this lockdown as aiding their power games. And clearly some imagine the benefit of keeping us locked down as long as possible for their election plans. But nobody seems interested in what comes after that.

What exactly will unfold when and if this quarantine is fully lifted? What other of our remaining liberties - with so many now long gone following 9/11 - will be demanded from us in the name of our safety. These viral events come in waves, generally. So what happens in the next wave, particularly if the hopes for a vaccine are not realized? Do we subject ourselves to another round of isolation and quarantine and the subsequent economic disruption? Do we submit to a genuine form of authoritarian government, particularly in response to civil unrest arising from economic and social dislocation? Then there are mutations of this virus that will inevitably come to the fore and start this process over again. What then?

We are told we must do this even if the effects of this virus are generally mild for the vast majority of sufferers so as to save the healthcare system from inevitable collapse. But what is to prevent us from expanding our system, building greater capacity, training more workers, applying creative solutions in technology, logistics, and management to keep the system resilient? Instead, we take the opposite approach as if that is the only solutions available to us. This makes no sense to me. Red China is only now starting to emerge from calamity after two months of lockdown. If we follow a similar path, must we contend with an economic cratering until June or later? What if the Chicoms experience a second wave? Will the authorities keep us locked down even longer?

And then there are the politics. We can never be free of it. What if the more cynical in authority see this as their best and final chance to rid the world of the Trumpian scourge and choose to keep it going? What if those who are the beneficiaries of the current system see this as the solution to their diminishing effectiveness and influence (the Democrats, the GOP, the European neoliberal elite, the far right, the far left, the Remainers, the EU technocrats, the climate activists, the finance elite, name your devil)? Our mutual distrust of each other, stoked by the Democrats and Never Trumpers in the wake of Clinton's defeat has already strained the social fabric and put us all off balance and at each other's necks, all the better that we might be manipulated. Will not this social distancing exacerbate that even more? This seems to be what is happening, this time at the instigation of a venal and corrupt political leadership by a single-minded/linear thinking medical and scientific elite seemingly without interest or concern for the economic destruction they have triggered or the societal wounds that will remain after the virus subsides. To flatten the curve, it seems we must flatten our economy and the society which it enables. To flatten the curve we must undermine the authority of the current administration. To flatten it, the press must dispense with the last of its credibility and objectivity and make themselves cheerleaders for doom.

It is my opinion that a world wide economic depression has been set in motion by the response to this biological event. The rationale for it baffles me, for either the smartest minds in medicine and science are completely ignorant of economics and politics, or there is some god awful political agenda at play the details of which we are not able to determine as yet. Whichever of those or some other is the case, the effect of it is akin to yelling fire in a crowded theater. And yet those who raise such questions are asked by a cynical few, "how many lives would you sacrifice?" But they never ask themselves the same question. It doesn't occur to them that 30% unemployment, the destruction of retirement wealth and pensions, the loss of homes, and all the rest might lead to mass death. Death through despair, death through suicide, death through homicide, death through civil unrest, death through government overreach.

For the policy decisions forced on us without debate, without discussion, and presented as the singular and only viable approach will have in a few weeks wiped out more jobs, more businesses, more wealth - except of course the wealth of the favored few who somehow managed to go to cash in advance of the crisis - than any event surpassing war and the great depression. The longer we are locked down, the deeper the economic destruction, the greater the likelihood of massive civil unrest. Already in the larger cities, police have been told to let felons go with a citation, the jails are being emptied, and the courts are not in session. Soon predatory criminals will take this as a license for mayhem. And then there is the more quiet form of civil unrest that goes unreported but hand in hand with the despair these decisions have brought - the broken marriages, the domestic violence, the child abuse, the crushing loneliness of the elderly.

All those casualties are never considered by the arrogant few who cynically ask "how many would you sacrifice to save the economy?"

Well said, Woodsman.

I have seen so much analysis about Covid-19 death rates along with no analysis of the deaths that will inevitably caused by the malnutrition and mental health issues caused by the economic collapse that has now been set in motion. Without looking at both sides as objectively as possible and without moralizing, how do policymakers perform a useful cost/benefit analysis? I'm not saying that we should not take appropriate steps to combat Covid-19, but the situation is a lot more complex than many think and with no easy answers.

[geodrome]

Re: Mean time in Spain

Well said, Woodsman.


I have seen so much analysis about Covid-19 death rates along with no analysis of the deaths that will inevitably caused by the malnutrition and mental health issues caused by the economic collapse that has now been set in motion. Without looking at both sides as objectively as possible and without moralizing, how do policymakers perform a useful cost/benefit analysis? I'm not saying that we should not take appropriate steps to combat Covid-19, but the situation is a lot more complex than many think and with no easy answers.

Yeah, it's not "lives vs. the economy", it's "lives vs lives."


Covid-19 deaths are highly visible, publicized by the media, compressed in a short time period, directly attributable to the virus. Deaths due to economic hardship are diffuse, less visible, less publicized, distributed over longer time period, only indirectly attributable to economic hardship. So it's no surprise the politicians have responded the way they have.


What bothers me far more is not the measures themselves, but the "get with the program" crowd who think all the data is in and this one is a no brainer. The debate is settled. "We" give up our civil liberties too easily have far too much trust in the powers that shouldn't be.


We desperately need anti-body testing of representative samples of the population to get a clearer picture of how many people have been infected to date. And mass anti-body testing so that those who have had it can return to work (if they can get it at this point).


The quarantine orders would be a whole lot easier to swallow if our governments a) had been prepared to begin with, b) didn't block efforts of firms to produce masks, tests, and other necessities (command and control mindset), c) didn't take advantage of the crisis to distribute untold billions upon trillions to their buddies.


I hope when we emerge from this crisis we remember what major fuck ups our rulers are from the CPP to the CDC. (Pardon my french and feel free to edit if cursing is against itulip policy). But I'm afraid post-crisis we'll be treated to editorials like this oldie but goodie: BEN BERNANKE: THE MAN WHO SAVED THE ECONOMY.

[Mega]

Re: Mean time in Spain

The British have just changed how they count the dead.
I suspect that if the DEAD count comes up short (we were told 250,000, then 20,000 or as few as 5,000) Boris will chase Body count like General Westmoreland in Vietnam.

Mike

[globaleconomicollaps]

Re: Mean time in Spain

All those casualties are never considered by the arrogant few who cynically ask "how many would you sacrifice to save the economy?"

Yes, I'm needling you Dr. Woodsman. Don't take it too hard. I actually agree with you about the the abuse of power and I might even agree about the starvation, suicides and poverty.

[Mega]

Re: Mean time in Spain

Meantime in Sweden:-
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/a...tastrophe.html

[jk]

Re: Mean time in Spain

i think it's worth separating several issues:

1. how severe is this pandemic? how many have already had it and [presumably] have some immunity?

2. what steps are possible to mitigate its effects in terms of both lives lost and degradation of our general healthcare systems?

3. what is the cost of each of the mitigation strategies, both economically and in terms of other health effects? what are the costs socially, psychologically and politically? [e.g. one political and economic outcome of recent u.s. gov't actions is to increase enormously the presence and power of the federal gov't in the national economy. which companies will be bailed out? which will get loans? which will be allowed to fail? how many individuals will come to rely on their federal funding- as direct checks, subsidies, or via expanded unemployment benefits?]

4. with what means and to what ends are various factions and individuals manipulating this problem?

separating these issues in our discussions might make analysis more tractable.


btw, let's not forget that "flattening the curve," or delaying illness, allows for the trial and production of treatments. a vaccine is likely 8-12 mos away, i expect to see some treatments proven and mass production begun within a few months.

[shiny!]

Re: Mean time in Spain

i think it's worth separating several issues:

as do I.

which will be allowed to fail?

The ones without deep pockets for strong congressional lobbies and campaign contributions. Like my employer. Our commercial tenants are not paying rent. We'll see this week how many of our residential tenants (11 mobile home communities and 2 apartment buildings) are going to pay rent.

how many individuals will come to rely on their federal funding- as direct checks, subsidies, or via expanded unemployment benefits?

The crumbs they're sending down to the hoi polloi are not nearly enough to sustain life, homes and health. $1200? That doesn't even cover a month of rent for most households. Certainly not enough for rent, utilities, food, medicine. Expanded unemployment benefits are a joke.

Had a long talk with my next-door neighbors yesterday. They're a typical low-income, working class young couple with two small children. The wife lost her sales clerk job. Last month the husband graduated from being a minimum wage landscaper to qualifying as a truck driver. He was so proud of his accomplishment. He got a job making local deliveries. His employer has him working 7 days a week. Sounds great, except now their household income is "too high" to qualify for Medicaid and they can't afford health insurance. He needs to buy medicine for his wife but can't afford it. They have no reserves. The poor guy is trying as hard as he can and feels like he's failing. He's in despair.

People can't become dependent on subsidies and handouts that aren't there. They're in distress NOW, and the help coming isn't nearly enough. Once people's antidepressants run out, things will quickly escalate to violence.

[globaleconomicollaps]

Re: Mean time in Spain

btw, let's not forget that "flattening the curve," or delaying illness, allows for the trial and production of treatments. a vaccine is likely 8-12 mos away, i expect to see some treatments proven and mass production begun within a few months.

That would be a world record for vaccine production and approval. Do you get the impression that the authorities are working like well oiled machines?

[globaleconomicollaps]

Re: Mean time in Spain

Duplicate deleted.

[jk]

Re: Mean time in Spain

That would be a world record for vaccine production and approval. Do you get the impression that the authorities are working like well oiled machines?

just happened across something about this. who knows if their candidate vaccine will a. be safe and b. work?

Johnson & Johnson today announced the selection of a lead COVID-19 vaccine candidate from constructs it had been working on since January 2020, with expected initiation of human clinical studies by September 2020 at the latest.
The company expects the first batches of a COVID-19 vaccine for emergency use authorization in early 2021, an accelerated timeframe in comparison with the typical vaccine development process. The company has scaled its manufacturing capacity with the goal of providing a billion doses of a vaccine globally, according to a company press release.

Efforts to research potential vaccine candidates began in January 2020 as soon as the COVID-19 sequence became available. Through this research, Johnson & Johnson identified a lead COVID-19 vaccine candidate and two backups, which will progress into the first manufacturing steps. The company aims to initiate a phase 1 clinical study in September 2020 and have clinical data on safety and efficacy available by the end of the year. This could possibly allow emergency use authorization of the vaccine by early 2021. Through an expansion of an existing partnership between the Janssen Pharmaceutical Companies of Johnson & Johnson and the Biomedical Advanced Research and Development Authority (BARDA), a $1 billion investment has been made to co-fund vaccine research, development and clinical testing. Johnson & Johnson will use it validated vaccine platform and will allocate resources, including personnel and global infrastructure, to focus on these efforts. BARDA has provided additional funding to expand ongoing work to identify potential antiviral treatment against the novel coronavirus.
In addition to vaccine development, BARDA and Johnson & Johnson have expanded their partnership to accelerate Janssen’s ongoing work in screening compound libraries. The company aims to identify potential treatments against the novel coronavirus and both Johnson & Johnson and BARDA are providing funding as part of this partnership.

[jk]

Re: Mean time in Spain

major regional hospital

3/27 8 patients on vents
3/30 34 patients on vents
4/2 46 patients on vents

[Mega]

Re: Mean time in Spain

JK
No one is saying this is NOT an Outbreak, not even Alex Jones
What would be helpful is if you could post stats from other years, other years when there was also a flu outbreak.
Allow us to see a bigger picture, for example 35,000 people die of "Flu" in the uk every year, that's about 673 a week.
Not every week as the numbers change with the weather...
Cheers
Mike

[jk]

Re: Mean time in Spain

JK
No one is saying this is NOT an Outbreak, not even Alex Jones
What would be helpful is if you could post stats from other years, other years when there was also a flu outbreak.
Allow us to see a bigger picture, for example 35,000 people die of "Flu" in the uk every year, that's about 673 a week.
Not every week as the numbers change with the weather...
Cheers
Mike

no numbers handy, mike, but we know that covid-19 has a far higher cfr, a far higher Ro, no established treatments, and no vaccine.

the flu washes through the population every year and kills some proportion of vulnerable people, but it doesn't rise exponentially and it doesnt overwhelm icu and ventilator availability. in light of our vaccines it also doesn't cause as much morbidity as covid-19 is capable of producing, let alone as many deaths.

as i've said, it is my hope that by the end of the summer we will have some established treatments available, which will help in coping with a possible 2nd wave in the fall, assuming covid abates at all in the summer. with treatments available fewer icu beds and vents will be needed, so the whole thing can be better controlled. maybe we'll have a vaccine in 10-12 months. that would help the best.

the website below, produced by the institute for health metrics at the university of washington, originally at the request of u. of washington medicine when things were at their worst in seattle, demonstrates the problems for the u.s. as a whole, and for individual u.s. states. it's worth a look.

http://covid19.healthdata.org/

[Mega]

Re: Mean time in Spain

That's the good Hard Data I was looking for, Thank You