GRG 55 .........its a Bloodbath!

[Mega]

Re: GRG 55 .........its a Bloodbath!

Was flicking though a Car Mag in Walmart the other day, Top ex-o at VW said that the ICE has a long life ahead of it because "Green Fuels" made from Bio-mass & other "Green sources". I think they sussed what would be required to "Go Green" would cost......& Shit themselves.

The "Window" (Time) for Green projects is coming to an end.

Musk has with the Model 3 shown how close he is to answering Mega's questions.......but sadly I suspect its over.
"They" will decide to go back to Oil, dump the "Green Dream" & he suddenly find his "Jesus touch" gone.

Mike

[GRG55]

Re: GRG 55 .........its a Bloodbath!

Was flicking though a Car Mag in Walmart the other day, Top ex-o at VW said that the ICE has a long life ahead of it because "Green Fuels" made from Bio-mass & other "Green sources". I think they sussed what would be required to "Go Green" would cost......& Shit themselves.

The "Window" (Time) for Green projects is coming to an end.

Musk has with the Model 3 shown how close he is to answering Mega's questions.......but sadly I suspect its over.
"They" will decide to go back to Oil, dump the "Green Dream" & he suddenly find his "Jesus touch" gone.

Mike

Tesla is the only EV manufacturer that has been able to sell battery EVs in any quantity. Everyone else seems to have fallen well below forecast sales projections, most of which still needed cross-subsidies from the rest of the product line even at the optimistic volume forecasts. And that was before we headed into the coming recession.

Tesla's product clearly has great appeal, and that's a credit to Musk and his company - no small feat. But I still see no evidence the company is able to scale production enough to start earning its cost of capital. That works. Until it doesn't.

I continue to think battery EV is going to prove a dead-end technology leading to a broken business model. But the EV drivetrains may prove the foundation technology for hydrogen fuel cell propulsion.

[GRG55]

Re: GRG 55 .........its a Bloodbath!

The world is not going into an economic Depression.

The Doomer forecasts are so overdone.

[Mega]

Re: GRG 55 .........its a Bloodbath!

I beg to differ...........the limts of credit are here

[jk]

Re: GRG 55 .........its a Bloodbath!

The world is not going into an economic Depression.

The Doomer forecasts are so overdone.

it could be a very slow recovery. e.g. even those with financial reserves will run down their savings. as the economy picks up i would expect savings rates to be high. also caution about another wave of infections [absent a vaccine] will inhibit spending. this, in turn, will keep employment growth down.

[Mega]

Re: GRG 55 .........its a Bloodbath!

[Techdread]

Re: GRG 55 .........its a Bloodbath!

The world is not going into an economic Depression.

The Doomer forecasts are so overdone.

Not with the stimulus the central banks of the world are giving.

Also I would watch those science budgets rise, this Covid-19 crises is going to save a lot of lives in the long run.

[jk]

Re: GRG 55 .........its a Bloodbath!

Also I would watch those science budgets rise, this Covid-19 crises is going to save a lot of lives in the long run.

no, the money is all going to go to boeing and the airlines to replenish the $80billion they spent on stock buybacks, about 18% of which ended up in the pockets of management. it's the american way.

[thriftyandboringinohio]

Re: GRG 55 .........its a Bloodbath!

We had very good reasons to create the Chapter 11 bankruptcy laws.
This is a perfect textbook case for using them.

The airlines file chapter 11 and obtain protections from creditors to allow not paying what they owe.
Airlines continue to operate with employees who are getting emergency unemployment checks from the feds through the states.
As traffic comes back airlines work out terms with their creditors for emerging from chapter 11.

It's perfect. It was designed for situations like this.

The airlines need zero bailout money. Zero.

Any of their supply companies facing disaster because airlines can't pay for fuel or parts or services, it's the same.
They file chapter 11, their employees get emergency unemployment checks.

It's perfect. It was designed for situations like this.
The corporations need zero bailout money. Zero.

We people hunker down, buy food and medicine with emergency unemployment checks.
As the pandemic works through our population and we start going out and about, the businesses start up again one by one.

No corp needs a bailout. Really. Just checks to individuals. Instead widespread chapter 11 protections.
.
.
.

[jk]

Re: GRG 55 .........its a Bloodbath!

We had very good reasons to create the Chapter 11 bankruptcy laws.
This is a perfect textbook case for using them.

The airlines file chapter 11 and obtain protections from creditors to allow not paying what they owe.
Airlines continue to operate with employees who are getting emergency unemployment checks from the feds through the states.
As traffic comes back airlines work out terms with their creditors for emerging from chapter 11.

It's perfect. It was designed for situations like this.

The airlines need zero bailout money. Zero.

Any of their supply companies facing disaster because airlines can't pay for fuel or parts or services, it's the same.
They file chapter 11, their employees get emergency unemployment checks.

It's perfect. It was designed for situations like this.
The corporations need zero bailout money. Zero.

We people hunker down, buy food and medicine with emergency unemployment checks.
As the pandemic works through our population and we start going out and about, the businesses start up again one by one.

No corp needs a bailout. Really. Just checks to individuals. Instead widespread chapter 11 protections.
.
.
.

if only.
don't forget big corporations are big political donors. and they employ ex-congressmen as lobbyists. how can they not get a bailout?

[GRG55]

Re: GRG 55 .........its a Bloodbath!

I beg to differ...........the limts of credit are here

Sorry Mike, you are about to be proven wrong on this one.

[ST]

Re: GRG 55 .........its a Bloodbath!

The first of the cutbacks in production aren't coming from shale wells. The marginal "stripper" wells in the heritage fields (East Texas, Oklahoma, parts of New Mexico, Kansas, Montana, SD and so forth) are the first out. Much of that is (has) already coming off the market. That will be the first wave of the USA production declines reported.

posted some charts the other day lower in the thread the other day, saw this today as well, all from Goldman Sachs:

3/16 - US shale activity cuts have been swifter than expected..s highlighted from our Houston trip last week, E&P managements are moving more quickly to respond to OPEC/Russia's decision ...In 2019, US shale production was about 8 million bpd, which we believe would broadly decline by 3 million bpd in the absence of any drilling/completion activity.

3/18 chart:


question is how / when to play the long side, what proxies and when?

[ST]

Re: GRG 55 .........its a Bloodbath!

I beg to differ...........the limts of credit are here

while we'll probably exit this at 10% of debt to gdp in the US, vs. 5%, markets aren't particularly worried about limits of credit during times of world war and times like this pandemic, IMO. As far as the USD, it's a rush to liquidity and as always a relative beauty contest for currencies for duration. We'll look back at this episode as another massive buying opp - the only question is for which sectors and when... typically equity markets bottom ~3 months prior to recession exit (12-15 months from now?) after two waves of disappointing early entrants, then capitulation, as earnings catch down to prices. Oil proxies on the other hand amidst this steep decline perhaps much sooner.... and a couple other sectors which have been hit that usually defensive perhaps well before for buying opps.

I prefer to remain in long US bonds, some gold and cash at the moment, though it's time to do digging on the last oil crash (2014-16 and proxies reponse/timeliness, and line up others to keep an eye on through this recession).

[Chris Coles]

Re: GRG 55 .........its a Bloodbath!

That is quite a find Mega, a very detailed analysis of the overall problem. Well done.

[Mega]

Re: GRG 55 .........its a Bloodbath!

For me the Model 3 was a watershed, yes it weights more than a AMG/M/RS but not very much more!

Model 3 1.8 tons
A 45 AMG 1.65 tons

I small reduction in weight via new battery chem........& ZAP, its lighter!

Mike