Ok, Cards on the table

[santafe2]

Re: Ok, Cards on the table

Best meme on the Internet tonight: Doctor I can't possibly have COVID-19, I just bought 200 rolls of toilet paper.

[GRG55]

Re: Ok, Cards on the table

Best meme on the Internet tonight: Doctor I can't possibly have COVID-19, I just bought 200 rolls of toilet paper.

Someone sent me this today:

[EJ]

Re: Ok, Cards on the table

Someone sent me this today:

Wegmans Food Markets, a very well run, family owned national American supermarket chain headquartered in Rochester, New York and founded in 2016 has several stores in the area. All have TP in abundant supply. Huge stacks of packages of TP greet you at the door and a sign reading. “No need to hoard. There’s more where this came from.”

[Mega]

Re: Ok, Cards on the table

Returning the Virus for a mo......................it seems South Korea is turning out to be the Star's on dealing with this. THe Death rate there is down to 0.54% & falling. Over 80 yeara of age is the highest at 8.34%, but again falling

[thriftyandboringinohio]

Re: Ok, Cards on the table

Wegmans Food Markets, a very well run, family owned national American supermarket chain headquartered in Rochester, New York and founded in 2016 has several stores in the area. All have TP in abundant supply. Huge stacks of packages of TP greet you at the door and a sign reading. “No need to hoard. There’s more where this came from.”

[FrankL]

Re: Ok, Cards on the table

Returning the Virus for a mo......................it seems South Korea is turning out to be the Star's on dealing with this. THe Death rate there is down to 0.54% & falling. Over 80 yeara of age is the highest at 8.34%, but again falling

South Korea had a containment strategy with abundant tests available.

'We' in the west have decided that approach is not feasible because people here are more individualistic, governments can exert less control, and most importantly, epidemiologists believe that the virus will just come back in a new wave if it's contained.

Based on Chinese (doctored?) epidemilogical data, the chosen strategy was to let it 'simmer' until a 60-70% infection percentage of the total population would be reached, stopping community spread and any possible future wave.
A tiny problem with this approach is, that it seems that the speed of contagion of this virus was severely underestimated. It's not so much 'simmering' as it is in a pressure cooker (or at least it will be unless much more strict measures are implemented).

Also it wasn't just 60+ that get hit, in NL and FR half of the ICU beds for covid19 are used by under 60 now.
We're now heading into full blown disaster area. Northern Italy today is what north-western Europe will look like in 8-10 days.

It's obvious authorities in NL and FR are panicking, as Macron announced closure of all schools last Thursday. Only 2 day later followed by closure of all commerce not related to food, with a snide remark that previously announced measures had been 'imperfectly applied'. Which is a laughable remark as the average incubation time is something like 5-6 days...

Complete lockdown enforced by armed forces will be a next stage coming very soon where I live.

Governments have themselves to blame for the high propagation of the virus. Over and over again they reiterated that it was 'just like a bad flu', and this has stuck with most people. Nobody under 80 is afraid of flu, hence nobody has adjusted their social habits.

[Mega]

Re: Ok, Cards on the table

" the chosen strategy was to let it 'simmer' "

The Chosen strategy was to let it in............

[ProdigyofZen]

Re: Ok, Cards on the table

Said it before and it's worth repeating, if an economy is run by and for the finance, insurance, and real estate industries what kind of response to a pandemic could be expected? Besides endless dithering and delays, the "public-private partnership" that Trump presented as the US solution is consistent with FIRE Economy structure. Not that I think it's a terrible idea to have test drive-in centers at CVS, Walgreens, and Target, but I suspect there are many, many "devil's in the details" issues to be worked out before we see any actual test sites: Who will staff these sites? The insurance companies will want a piece of the action. How long will that take to arrange?

On a brighter note, here's how the Italian people are coping with their lockdown.

Much harder for the U.S. to come together in a time like this when we have both balkanized ethnic groups and balkanized radical political parties.

Japan, Italy, China are in much more envious positions when it comes to reacting to a national emergency.

[santafe2]

Re: Ok, Cards on the table

Much harder for the U.S. to come together in a time like this when we have both balkanized ethnic groups and balkanized radical political parties.

Japan, Italy, China are in much more envious positions when it comes to reacting to a national emergency.

Hi PoZ, I don't think that's true. We're coming together rather well in most of the US. I'm a lib living in the gun toting West and all of us are trying to help our neighbors, not mention the a*hole in chief and just work through this issue. All of us have a friend who had a good job 2 weeks ago and is now out of work. Americans are no more balkanized than we have been for 250 years. We work together when TSHTF. We'll settle our differences later. Witness the rise of uncle Joe. We really don't care who's president as long as he or she isn't an idiot because we got this. We got this. We don't need a genius in charge, just save us from an idiot in our way.

Never compare the US to Japan, Italy or China and suspect we should envy their position. We F* up as much as any country, probably more than most but our system allows us to *elect* a clown and recover. We may suffer more than some with this outbreak but we'll learn from our mistakes and move forward. It's not great today but I'd rather suffer this idiot F*tard than live under another system.

What we see locally is so many folks in the service community losing their jobs. The rent doesn't stop, the kids need to eat, the utilities have to be paid. This is the issue. This is our focus.

[bpr]

Re: Ok, Cards on the table

In the spirit of the thread, "Cards on the Table," Market Neutral Long-Short healthcare: Equal exposure to potential COVID winners and RXD (Proshares ultrashort Healthcare). Keep in mind that RXD is 2x short, so it's more like 66% long 33% RXD, but I expect to be re-allocating regularly.


US Healthcare companies are tracking the S&P, and I think the sector is getting a free pass because they’re contract-based. But if we’re looking at even 1/5 of the unemployment claims the Treasury Secretary hinted at, then it’s time to go long ACA (Obamacare).


A little-known clause of the ACA is that 80% of premiums must be spent on actual care, or else the balance needs to be refunded to the enrollees. It's calculated per state per carrier.

I’ve been on an ACA plan, and because our carrier overestimated the cost of care (only 66% of premiums in our state were used on care, so 14% — a whopping $50 million in our state from our carrier alone), enrollees got a refund check.

With the number of pink slips coming the health insurers are going to be squeezed.

EDIT: This is not investment advice, and I am not a financial professional. It's just what I'm doing with my play money. If you choose to do so, then you should see it accordingly.

EDIT2: I might be way early on this because of the reporting delay between ACA premiums collected and ACA compliance achieved (through refunds), but I thought I'd throw it out there. I've been too early before, and keeping adequate cash is paramount.

[jk]

Re: Ok, Cards on the table

i recommend avoiding both inverse and leveraged etf's except for very short term trades. they meet their target on a DAILY basis, not long term. if you do the math on a round trip to nowhere, i.e. have the market gain or lose x, then reverse that move, you'll see that inverse and leveraged etf's lose money unless there is a strong directional move maintained over your holding period.

[Woodsman]

Re: Ok, Cards on the table

When was the last time Americans faced massive economic dislocation through no fault of their own? When was the last time a massive number of Americans faced unemployment, foreclosures, bankruptcy, and a life of precarity? It wasn't too long ago? Anyone remember?

Of course it was in the aftermath of the global financial crisis. And who was president at the time? You remember his name?



His name was Barack Obama, Democrat (IL).

Do you remember Obama's response to the crisis? Remember how he and his Treasury Secretary went to the White House Press Room and announced that they were passing the first of several $1 trillion economic stimulus programs and that $1000 checks would be going to Americans within a couple of weeks?

Remember how Obama ordered the suspension of all evictions and foreclosures? How Obama put a moratorium on student loan interest? Remember how amazing it was when he abandoned all ideological pretexts and went all in because of the seriousness of the emergency?

No, you don't remember because it NEVER HAPPENED.

Obama, when faced with the collapse of the economy bailed out the banks and left the rest of us to twist in the wind. That's what the "socialist" Obama did in the face of crisis. He gave socialism for the banks and hardscrabble individualism for the rest of us.

No, it's Trump. It's the a*hole in chief, the clown, the wretched bad orange man who went all in on socialism, who sends Americans checks for merely having a pulse, who keeps little old ladies and single mothers out eviction from their FHA and HUD homes, who does all the things that Barack Obama never did, never dreamed of doing.

Trump is out-lefting the Left. He's out-democrating the Democratic Party.

Obama, God bless him, he could feel your pain and show genuine compassion, oh yes. He could look you in the eyes and you could see the tears well up in his and you knew, you just knew in your heart that he cared about you, he really connected with your suffering.

But then the cameras turned off, he took off, and left you suffering.

And man, things were bad and people were ready for huge structural change. Remember after Obama's election how there was even talk of getting him into office before the official inauguration? That's how desperate things were. That's how desperate people were. That's how much hope they had in his promise for change. They would have supported anything Obama proposed, any program, any expenditure, any radical re-altering of the status quo. He could have done anything he wanted. He could have lived up to the Time Magazine cover.

But Barack Obama did nothing.

He disbanded his movement. Got rid of his mailing list. Told everybody to stay home. And in the face of crisis not seen since the darkest days of the Great Depression, what did he do? After bailing out Citibank and Goldman Sachs, he left it to the Democrats to pass a tepid "Economic Recovery and Reinvestment Act" that recovered no one except insiders benefiting from Democrat pork projects.

He did nothing while 5.1 million families were kicked out of their homes.

But Trump, the buffoonish, clumsy, mooky, insincere, impossible to connect with vulgarian, he's run circles around Obama. I doubt Trump can feel much of anything, much less your pain, but goddamn he's making it happen, right now and in real time.

He's out-lefting Barack Obama all over this crisis. He's out-democrating the Democrats.

This is how he's handling the crisis. Stopping foreclosures, giving everybody UBI, making companies give the feds part ownership in their enterprises conditional on getting a bailout - nationalizing private corporations. Next thing will be Medicare for all suffering from the virus.

And what do the Democrats have? What does the party of FDR have? What does the party of competence and expertise have?

You got Nancy Pelosi shopping a plan to give 20% of the workforce sick leave, and only those unemployed because of the virus, and then only those with children. She and Chuck Schumer aren't too sure soon to be unemployed Americans should get their thousand dollar check, either, at least not until they fill out the FASFA or some such crap. To show that they really need it. How do you think that's going to play in Paducah? What do you think old Ma and Pa Kettle are going to think of that sitting around the dinner table?

Oh, and you got Joe Biden, too. He beat Bernie, apparently. You look at Joe, with his obvious bodily strength and sharpness of mind, and of course the first thing that comes to your head when you think of an existential crisis involving a killer virus and financial devastation, is boy I sure am glad we have Joe Biden in the big chair. Only keep him away from crowds, because if he gets this corona thing, he'd have to govern under an oxygen tent at Bethesda Naval Hospital.

Jesus, to be a leftie now! To be a Democrat. To be a Trump-hating member of "the resistance" now.

My God, what sort of torture must that be like? What sort of amped-up cognitive dissonance must these poor addled folks be feeling right now? They gotta be ignoring it and convincing themselves its not really happening, gotta be. Just like they did with their self-delusion on Russiagate and impeachment. Otherwise, they'd be pulling their teeth out in frustration. Call him names, I guess. That always soothes their tortured souls, like a mantra.

Bad orange man...oohhmm...a-hole in chief...oohhm...clown...ohm

And if you have an ounce of humanity in you, you just gotta feel for these poor folks. Their party and leadership is so calcified, so ossified, such a sclerotic gerontocracy that they're incapable of responding to this crisis. They're left with complaining that Trump is using the wrong name for the virus. That's all they got.

They put it all on the line for the Democratic Party, for Hillary Clinton, for Nancy Pelosi, for Tom Perez; they went apeshit for three years over illegal immigration, fine people, Russia, Saint Mueller, Stormy Daniels, Avenetti, impeachment. They shut out old friends, alienated family members, neighbors and colleagues at work.

And what do they have to show for it? Joe Biden and a handful of ashes, that's what the Democratic Party gave them. That and a baked in the cake Trump second term.

I do feel sorry for them. They got played by the worst sort of people. You can tell when you read their posts and hear them speak, just how livid they are, just how fuming, burning mad they are. And they don't know who to blame. They're still in denial.

But I bet my last dollar, the Democratic Party leadership will rally their hopes for one last charge at the ramparts. And they'll let themselves get played again. Sure, they'll eat it up, go along with it, and feel entirely righteous and justified, because the Democratic Party apparatus tells they are righteous and justified and they want to believe it so badly. They need to believe it. They need to think that they're smarter, wiser, more rational, more just, and just better people. And while they're feeling it, events will pass them by yet again and leave them behind. As they have all along.

They got out-lefted by the a-hole in chief, the clown, the Bad Orange Man. They got out-compassioned by Donald J. Trump.

The G-O-FRIKIN-P are more able to implement the highest aspirations of the Democratic Party base than their own Democratic Party.

[Woodsman]

Re: Ok, Cards on the table

"While Nancy Pelosi blocks Emergency UBI and Demntia Joe stands agaings M4A, Trump suspends foreclosures and evictions and wants to send direct payments to desperate Americans. Trump is going to be the most progressive candidate on the ballot...Pelosi won't send direct payments during your foreclosure because Pelosi is getting direct payments from those foreclosing on you. If Trump is so bad, why are Democrats worse? Sometimes it takes a racist, sexist, xenophobe to out-progressive the Democratic Party."

[jk]

Re: Ok, Cards on the table

i thought this thread was to discuss finance, economics and investing. maybe the politics should go in "rant and rave." or start a new thread for politics.

[Mega]

Re: Ok, Cards on the table