GRG 55 might be on to something

[Mega]

https://news.sky.com/story/plunging-...itory-11951154

""Shares of Royal Dutch Shell 'B', the class most commonly held by UK investors, have fallen by nearly 38% since the end of July last year while shares of BP have fallen by 27% during the same period."

"This is extremely damaging for UK pension funds in particular since many of them hold both Shell and BP shares in significant quantities".

When to buy?
Mike

[GRG55]

Re: GRG 55 might be on to something

At some point the airlines and the cruise ship operators are also going to be screaming buys.

COVID-19 is small beans compared to 9/11 when it comes to the airlines.

[jk]

Re: GRG 55 might be on to something

At some point the airlines and the cruise ship operators are also going to be screaming buys.

COVID-19 is small beans compared to 9/11 when it comes to the airlines.

"at some point"- hard to know when. i'd been accumulating commodity related stocks in february, thinking they were pretty washed out. turned out i caught a falling knife.

i'm thinking i'm going to do what i did with gold. i didn't buy before or at the bottom, but in late 2003, when it appeared that the bottom had been passed.

re 9/11 and the size of beans - it remains to be seen. 9/11 was a one-off event. of course people were scared more such events would happen, but they didn't, though we still are left with legacy of practically having to disrobe when we go through security at american airports. air passenger travel reached its pre-9/11/01 peak in july '04.

we don't know, we don't even have a clue, about how long covid-19 will be suppressing travel. conferences and such are being cancelled every day. "non-essential" business travel is being banned by more companies every day. the beans may appear small at the moment, but we don't know how much or how long they will grow.

-------------
got an email yesterday sent to all staff associated with the local behemoth hospital. i imagine it is not unlike communications being sent to employees of many companies and organizations. it included the following [emphasis added]

In order to preserve the health of our employees and to minimize any unnecessary risks to exposure of COVID-19 for the immediate and foreseeable future, all work-related international travel must be suspended until further notice. We also highly recommend that you not travel internationally for personal reasons as you may not be able to re-enter the U.S. or youmay need to self-isolate when you return, using substantial PTO. Regarding domestic travel, we highly recommend you reevaluate both your personal and professional plans, and cancel any non-essential travel that involves large gatherings of individuals. Please do not schedule any travel for any future conference or other work-related tripsduring the next eight weeks.

[GRG55]

Re: GRG 55 might be on to something

"at some point"- hard to know when...

That is always the challenge. I think those much better versed in technical analysis than I may have some advantage - what with ability to read tea leaves so to speak.

I tend to be early and therefore always "nibble" to start. The OPEC results yesterday, followed by the news today of Saudi once again "opening the taps" (what else could they do, LOL) means the final downleg of this cycle, which started in the spring of 2008) is now in play for oil.

But admittedly that still does not definitively answer the question "when".

[jk]

Re: GRG 55 might be on to something

on when to buy: [highly recommend this brief and amusing post]

https://adventuresincapitalism.com/2...y-goes-no-bid/

[Mega]

Re: GRG 55 might be on to something

Back in 2006-09 ish I watched a website called "Adultwork.com"
Its a site for (mostly) woman selling their "Services".....most where shipped in from Eastern Europe, some very good looking ones as well.

I began to "Chart" their "Price".....I had no interest hiring any of them but It was a "Snap shot" on what was going on under the Radar.

Their collective cost was pre crash £900 a night........which fell quickly to £300 as Men re-discovered that their wife & a light switch would have to suffice!

Mike

[Mega]

Re: GRG 55 might be on to something

Shit
OIL just gone to $30!
Goldman expects Oil to fall well into the $20's

Mike

[jk]

Re: GRG 55 might be on to something

That is always the challenge. I think those much better versed in technical analysis than I may have some advantage - what with ability to read tea leaves so to speak.

I tend to be early and therefore always "nibble" to start. The OPEC results yesterday, followed by the news today of Saudi once again "opening the taps" (what else could they do, LOL) means the final downleg of this cycle, which started in the spring of 2008) is now in play for oil.

But admittedly that still does not definitively answer the question "when".

in spite of my intentions of self-restraint, i'm going to be tempted to buy some energy stocks tomorrow. the futures currently have wtic below 33.

[Mega]

Re: GRG 55 might be on to something

I see no hurry, this will run to June at lest...................Looks like Greta is the lest of their worries

[ProdigyofZen]

Re: GRG 55 might be on to something

Many many energy stocks I am being told are in bankruptcy filing.

This includes penny stock now Cheasepeak Energy. Also LPI and CDEV, going into bankruptcy. SM, MGY, WLL, OVV all going to zero. It is total annihilation across the energy space.

There will be no public market appetite for Permian names or most energy names outside the majors. It will all be private market going forward at depressed valuations.

The energy market was foretelling this Saudi production hike event, as most energy names had sold off by 50% YTD before this March 6/7/8 event.

[ProdigyofZen]

Re: GRG 55 might be on to something

in spite of my intentions of self-restraint, i'm going to be tempted to buy some energy stocks tomorrow. the futures currently have wtic below 33.

Oil is going into the teens. It will stay there as long as Saudi wants it to.

[thriftyandboringinohio]

Re: GRG 55 might be on to something

Many many energy stocks I am being told are in bankruptcy filing....

Bankruptcy can rid a corporation of onerous contracts.

Columbia Gas Systems inc filed chapter 11 in 1991, and came through it pretty well.

[jk]

Re: GRG 55 might be on to something

Oil is going into the teens. It will stay there as long as Saudi wants it to.

as much as i was tempted, i restrained myself. i agree we've got farther to go, [not just for oil.]

[ProdigyofZen]

Re: GRG 55 might be on to something

as much as i was tempted, i restrained myself. i agree we've got farther to go, [not just for oil.]

I have been accumulating a position in WORK ticker, aka Slack. If Visa (V) gets cheap enough, its a screaming buy due to its acquisition of Plaid. Also like Square (SQ), Zoom (ZM) and Uber.

[Southernguy]

Re: GRG 55 might be on to something

XLE at about 33 is around half its 5 years average (very rough estimate) and you avoid the bankruptcy risks.

Bankruptcy can rid a corporation of onerous contracts.

Columbia Gas Systems inc filed chapter 11 in 1991, and came through it prettell.