The Virus is Racist?

[Mega]

https://www.france24.com/en/20200301...perts?ref=tw_i

Not racing though Africa, nor western Europe..........?

Mike

[shiny!]

Re: The Virus is Racist?

How many people have been tested? If no one has been tested, then no one can be confirmed to have it. I'm wondering about the same thing in India, heck, in the USA as well. Like Finster said, if you only run 10 tests and they come back positive, you can say there are only 10 cases. It means nothing.

[FrankL]

Re: The Virus is Racist?

https://www.france24.com/en/20200301...perts?ref=tw_i

Not racing though Africa, nor western Europe..........?

Mike

No idea about Africa (climate perhaps? Eg. What about indonesia?), but the virus is pretty much going exponential in France, Germany, Spain and the Netherlands now. Has been going exponential for 2-4 weeks before these countries in northern Italy.
Note that the genetics of northern Italians is very similar to north-west Europeans.

So no, the virus doesn't seem 'racist' so far. Speed of travel can better be explained by having uncontrolled spreaders arrive in certain areas before other areas.

As for Africa/India/Indonesia, I don't know. There are very few datapoints so far outside of China.

Wait and see?

[santafe2]

Re: The Virus is Racist?

How many people have been tested? If no one has been tested, then no one can be confirmed to have it. I'm wondering about the same thing in India, heck, in the USA as well. Like Finster said, if you only run 10 tests and they come back positive, you can say there are only 10 cases. It means nothing.

Now that we're finally paying attention, the US is beginning to test. Within 10 days there should be 1.5MM test kits available. Our state health department is comfortable with their inventory, bed count, training and will be managing all testing and coordinating with local and trained providers. I had a quick chat with them today and they seem well prepared. We're lucky to not be on the front line like the folks in Seattle.

As we've just begun testing in some reasonable quantity, the US case count has begun moving up quickly. Yesterday the case count jumped from a 15% increase to 33%. Today it moved up 47% to 230. It will continue to rise quickly until we identify the great majority of the infected individuals. What then? I'm not sure how Americans will react to quarantine. We'll see.

[jk]

Re: The Virus is Racist?

It will continue to rise quickly until we identify the great majority of the infected individuals. What then? I'm not sure how Americans will react to quarantine. We'll see.

i don't think we'll ever identify the majority of infected individuals. most or many will be asymptomatic and never see a medical provider. many will think they just have an ordinary cold, and never see a medical provider. even if we implement drive-thru testing, as in so. korea, we'll never know.

[FrankL]

Re: The Virus is Racist?

i don't think we'll ever identify the majority of infected individuals. most or many will be asymptomatic and never see a medical provider. many will think they just have an ordinary cold, and never see a medical provider. even if we implement drive-thru testing, as in so. korea, we'll never know.

Agreed.

Also note without a single party police state, it is much harder to implement and strictly enforce quaraintine. Not to mention the tracing back of all contacts of infected individuals using their 'social credit tracking system'.

Add up the lopsided demographics of old europe, and we're looking at a very serious slow-motion disaster in the making.

My estimation is that western governments will implement measures to selectively isolate the elderly and individuals with compromised immune systems or other underlying health problems from the general population.

They'll take the chances with the general population being able to deal with this virus by their immune response, and let it run its course.

[santafe2]

Re: The Virus is Racist?

i don't think we'll ever identify the majority of infected individuals. most or many will be asymptomatic and never see a medical provider. many will think they just have an ordinary cold, and never see a medical provider. even if we implement drive-thru testing, as in so. korea, we'll never know.

I believe I may have had a moment of blind faith when the administration announced they would disseminate 1.5MM test kits next week. It's going to be...maybe...75,000. Kansas City, for example, will get 5 kits. Without massive testing, there's no way to slow the expansion so either as a plan or simple incompetence, we're giving the virus a big head start.

Although Pence says everyone on the Grand Princess will be tested, only about 150 kits were delivered yesterday. A cruise ship is a Petri dish. The longer you stay aboard the more likely you are to contract the disease du jour. Nasty problem with cruise ships but it's not often so deadly.

What will get our attention will be recession. I'd ignore the February jobs numbers. I speak every few weeks at medical conferences. It looks like 2020 will be the year they disappear. Travel restrictions are now being implemented at large US healthcare organizations to ensure healthcare providers don't bring coronavirus back to their vulnerable population. Most, or all others will follow in the next few weeks.

Then schools will shut down from pre-K through college. Sporting events will be cancelled. Social distance will become the norm. As Trump said, "this came out of nowhere". Right, who could have seen it coming.

[jk]

Re: The Virus is Racist?

I speak every few weeks at medical conferences. It looks like 2020 will be the year they disappear. Travel restrictions are now being implemented at large US healthcare organizations to ensure healthcare providers don't bring coronavirus back to their vulnerable population. Most, or all others will follow in the next few weeks.
.

i was scheduled to spend today in nyc at a medical conference. earlier in the week i received an email that the conference was being converted to a web event. i think if this kind of thing persists for a few months these kinds of events will never again occur in meat-space; in the future such events will mostly be web-only, i.e. the virus will trigger a cultural transititon in this, and likely other, ways.



also here's an excerpt from an email from the chief medical officer of the local huge academic medical center:

In order to preserve the health of our employees and to minimize any unnecessary risks to exposure of COVID-19 for the immediate and foreseeable future, all work-related international travel must be suspended until further notice. We also highly recommend that you not travel internationally for personal reasons as you may not be able to re-enter the U.S. or you may need to self-isolate when you return, using substantial PTO. Regarding domestic travel, we highly recommend you reevaluate both your personal and professional plans, and cancel any non-essential travel that involves large gatherings of individuals. Please do not schedule any travel for any future conference or other work-related trips during the next eight weeks.

[GRG55]

Re: The Virus is Racist?

i was scheduled to spend today in nyc at a medical conference. earlier in the week i received an email that the conference was being converted to a web event. i think if this kind of thing persists for a few months these kinds of events will never again occur in meat-space; in the future such events will mostly be web-only, i.e. the virus will trigger a cultural transititon in this, and likely other, ways...

You may be correct, but I'll offer a counter argument.

We humans are largely social animals. Despite the amazing advances in remote collaboration technologies over the past few decades, conferences, trade shows, political rallies and other excuses to gather haven't gone away. They've actually proliferated. Even networked computer gamers seem to feel the need to congregate under the same roof periodically. (How long before the first Peloton conference, so the designer bike owners can meet their celebrity trainers in person, LOL?)

Most technical or professional conferences consist of more than sessions of dry lectures. And increasing numbers of people seem to identify as strongly with their work/profession colleagues as with their families - perhaps a byproduct of the growing number of single-person and single-parent households.

If we get a series of these these sorts of viruses in relatively quick succession I can imagine some permanent changes in behaviour. But if COVID-19 comes and goes and there's a SARS like interval before the next viral drama I would bet most of us are going to fall back on familiar patterns.

[jk]

Re: The Virus is Racist?

You may be correct, but I'll offer a counter argument.

We humans are largely social animals. Despite the amazing advances in remote collaboration technologies over the past few decades, conferences, trade shows, political rallies and other excuses to gather haven't gone away. They've actually proliferated. Even networked computer gamers seem to feel the need to congregate under the same roof periodically. (How long before the first Peloton conference, so the designer bike owners can meet their celebrity trainers in person, LOL?)

Most technical or professional conferences consist of more than sessions of dry lectures. And increasing numbers of people seem to identify as strongly with their work/profession colleagues as with their families - perhaps a byproduct of the growing number of single-person and single-parent households.

If we get a series of these these sorts of viruses in relatively quick succession I can imagine some permanent changes in behaviour. But if COVID-19 comes and goes and there's a SARS like interval before the next viral drama I would bet most of us are going to fall back on familiar patterns.

i think there will be differentiation between shorter/limited conferences and longer ones. for example, a multi-day conference is often an excuse to travel to some desirable destination, a way for people with common interests to get together [e.g. subgroup specialist sessions at a general neuroscience conference], social activities. i agree with your argument about such get-togethers.

otoh, my conference today is a 1 day affair, most likely attended by people residing in the local geography - for me it was to be a 2 hr train ride and a 15min taxi ride. that's probably around the max distance for the vast majority of attendees. such conferences will tend to migrate to the web.

[santafe2]

Re: The Virus is Racist?

i think there will be differentiation between shorter/limited conferences and longer ones.

And there is the conference as a requirement, (the vendors pay for it), and the conference as an award, (we pay for it). Hawaii wins, Houston and Chicago lose.

[Woodsman]

Re: The Virus is Racist?

i was scheduled to spend today in nyc at a medical conference. earlier in the week i received an email that the conference was being converted to a web event...

Catching up with an old friend still with Uncle Sugar, I learned her agency has cancelled several of their flagship conferences and training events. The kicker was the ban on all non-essential domestic and international travel, with all trips requiring approval at the divisional-level. Her agency is in the news every day of late and it struck me as a pretty big deal. And if her agency is doing it, odds are all or most of the rest are doing likewise.

I hear the same from other folks, even those in the sales organizations who are usually on the road two weeks out of every month. Kibosh on travel, switching to WebEx meetings, etc. One guy says his company is keeping all staff home next week for a three-day remote work trial - every last employee - as a way to shakedown their connectivity, identify weak areas that need shoring up, and put their contingency planning to the test.

[LazyBoy]

Re: The Virus is Racist?

Mobile World Congress in Barcelona was cancelled a few weeks ago. This conference (typical attendance ~100,000) is a really big deal in the telecom industry, where the equipment providers show their latest and future stuff to the service providers, to help land some of the big network upgrades.

[Mega]

Re: The Virus is Racist?

[Mega]

Re: The Virus is Racist?