Red alert

[santafe2]

Re: Red alert

The 7 day build time for the Wuhan hospitals is truly epic.

They are not being built to last, they are being built to win.....

It doesn’t need to be perfect, it needs to be just good enough to join the fight and hopefully turn the tide.

Like the Yorktown, the Wuhan hospitals will soon be irrelevant, but they might be the platforms that help win the battle and then the tide of the war.

This is an important point. There are roughly 20,000 cases, ~13,500 are in Hubei province. As would any location, they were over-run and completely caught off guard. Of the 400+ deaths globally, all but 12 have been here. Their medical system is well beyond even palliative capacity and many sufferers have been sent home to self quarantine and apparently it's often a death sentence. This response will save lives and may keep this virus from becoming the externality that, for a time, topples our global economic house of cards. Because this wound was self inflicted, I don't expect world governments to applaud but it does look like they're using their unique political structure to all our advantage. See the Fukushima disaster to understand how a government can completely F* something up and throw a global sporting party to celebrate their fake victory. If one wants to despise a government, there are more than enough candidates from which to choose.

[Mega]

Re: Red alert

[Mega]

Re: Red alert

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/health/a...-outbreak.html

A SUDDEN turn of events, ......now all we have to do is stash 30,000 people

[Mega]

Re: Red alert

[Mega]

Re: Red alert

Ah, it seems that Western peoples have a LOT more resitance to this virus.

Mike

[santafe2]

Re: Red alert

Ah, it seems that Western peoples have a LOT more resitance to this virus.

While still a small number, (45), cases in Japan have doubled in the last few days giving them a solid, and unenviable, #2 position. Hopefully this is not a trend. If radioactive Japan does not keep Olympic goers away Coronavirus Japan certainly will. In China, cases have more than tripled in the last week reaching almost 31,000. At the current rate, there will be 100,000 cases next week and 1,000,000 cases 2 weeks after that.

[lakedaemonian]

Re: Red alert

While still a small number, (45), cases in Japan have doubled in the last few days giving them a solid, and unenviable, #2 position. Hopefully this is not a trend. If radioactive Japan does not keep Olympic goers away Coronavirus Japan certainly will. In China, cases have more than tripled in the last week reaching almost 31,000. At the current rate, there will be 100,000 cases next week and 1,000,000 cases 2 weeks after that.

Known Infection growth rate & known mortality growth rate have cut in half in the last 2 days, assuming accurate aggregate data.

If the previous growth rates(approx 22% daily compounding) had held we were looking at 3 million infected, 60k dead by March 1st.

If the big & fast drop in the growth rate continues, it may be only 30k, or only 6k, or only ?

For wave 1.

Strong possibility, perhaps probability, that there will be a wave 2.

[FrankL]

Re: Red alert

Known Infection growth rate & known mortality growth rate have cut in half in the last 2 days, assuming accurate aggregate data.

If the previous growth rates(approx 22% daily compounding) had held we were looking at 3 million infected, 60k dead by March 1st.

If the big & fast drop in the growth rate continues, it may be only 30k, or only 6k, or only ?

For wave 1.

Strong possibility, perhaps probability, that there will be a wave 2.

I'd like to see total current death rate vs. seasonal average for China.
The figures given just for 2019-nCOV sound like classification issues, for example due to people dying at home in quarantine without ever having been tested.

[lakedaemonian]

Re: Red alert

I'd like to see total current death rate vs. seasonal average for China.
The figures given just for 2019-nCOV sound like classification issues, for example due to people dying at home in quarantine without ever having been tested.

I’m basing it entirely on the following:

https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/a...23467b48e9ecf6

It assumes 2019-nCOV counts are clean.

If I had to guess, there is greater risk of undercounting from:

1)Uncounted infected/dead at home.
2)Undercounting by authorities to reduce panic

If there is a classification error with overcounting due to infection/death from common flu/other then I would think that’s a good thing and reduce the growth rate of infection/mortality.

[Mega]

Re: Red alert

[Mega]

Re: Red alert

[santafe2]

Re: Red alert

The most likely place to catch Novel Corona? China? Nope. Wuhan? Not even close. It's a cruise ship. Happy sailing.

[santafe2]

Re: Red alert

The most likely place to catch Novel Corona? China? Nope. Wuhan? Not even close. It's a cruise ship. Happy sailing.

The infection rate more than doubled in the last 24 hours. Now one in 27 passengers are confirmed to be infected. This is the Coronavirus Petri dish. Princess Cruises will throw all of their resources at this problem to ensure their brand will not be tarnished any more than it has so far. Possibly, if everyone survives or almost everyone survives, they look like heros for their effort to protect their customers in an extremely unfortunate circumstance. While I do feel sorry for these folks, for me, this is the most interesting scenario. Is Corona just a very bad flu, that with proper treatment, can be managed or is it deadly? It's difficult to judge government reactions and management but it's never difficult to judge a company's reaction to a problem that may bankrupt them. I don't subscribe to or watch the US MSM but this should be the biggest story they're covering.

[shiny!]

Re: Red alert

Certainly a number of people under quarantine must have it, and if they have it, how severe are their symptoms? Why am I not seeing cellphone videos from sick people saying, "I have it. It feels like a cold," or "it feels like the flu," or "I think I'm dying," or "I don't have any symptoms."

I think I saw one woman saying the latter, but with so many thousands of cases, that's awfully scant first-hand reporting. The silence is NOT normal.

[Mega]

Re: Red alert

Its not the Black Death!
Frankly I can't see it being much more powerful than flu we have in the west.

My Father died of something very like this & these people have my thoughts at this time...........bur people in 3rd world nations are getting & recovering from this

Mike