Once Again, Ultimately a Bad Bet

[jk]

Re: Once Again, Ultimately a Bad Bet

came across this comment:

Soleimani dead, his closest advisors arrested or missing, 56 IRGC elite detained.... political power will always work to decimate perceived threats to its rule.


also there are less specific, but generally consistent comments from harald malmgren. [not the source of above comment]

[lakedaemonian]

Re: Once Again, Ultimately a Bad Bet

reuters

Iran believed to have deliberately missed U.S. forces in Iraq strikes: sources https://reut.rs/2T7Kg18

It’s actually quite hard to say for sure.

Iran and their Houthi/Yemeni buddies are decent at throwing ballistic missiles around.

But unlike the Iranian cruise missiles that targeted Saudi energy production or the Russian supplied Houthi SS21’s that sniped Saudi/Emirati headquarters in Yemen, Iranian Scud variants have rather large CEPs(Circular Error of Probability).

CEP is the likely radius of impact from the actual aim point.

A US Trident Missile has a CEP that could hit your house.

Iranian Scud variants would be a grid square(1km by 1km).

So a claim to have deliberately missed is quite risky due to the relative inaccuracy of the missiles used.

It is certainly possible this was an Iranian “come on”.

A “come on” is a deliberate attempt to draw in adversary engagement/response for a complex ambush.

The US choosing not to accept the bait or a failed attack was a smart move.

The Iranians shooting down an airliner with everyone dead onboard certainly is an “own goal” by the Iranians.

Iran has certainly lost global public support after that disaster.

I certainly hope this Iranian shoot down doesn’t devolve into the same embarrassing mess as we had with MH17 proven to have been shot down by the Russian.

Now we just have to wait for the inevitable wave of conspiracy theories blaming Israel or CIA for hacking the poor Persians Russian built SAM unit and making them slaughter everyone.