Trump:- Looking good (Job numbers)

[Mega]

Wow, very good figs, meantime the DNC:-

[GRG55]

Re: Trump:- Looking good (Job numbers)

And to the North, in Canuckistan, the news is maybe not quite so rosy. The private sector took the biggest hit.

I was originally going to use this post as an excuse to reprise the "Tale of Two Economies" thread. But perhaps sleeping dogs...

After years of systematically chasing away capital investment, using the tax system to attack entrepreneurs and self-employed professionals, sacrificing the resource sectors on the altar of climate change, and focusing more on cartoon socks and Indian male bridal regalia instead of the welfare of his citizen voters, the sanctimonious narcissist that passes for our Prime Minister may finally begin to understand repeatedly incompetent policy choices ultimately result in negative consequences.

Imagine that.

Maybe his new Minister of Middle Class Prosperity (no, that is NOT from a Monty Python skit; it is, alas, all to real**) will create some "high paying green economy jobs" to fill the gaping void.

**From the National Post:
"...Then there’s Ottawa-Vanier MP Mona Fortier’s new job. I literally assumed people were joking about the Liberals’ obsessive branding, but it’s true: No word of a lie, she is an Associate Minister of Finance and, specifically, the Minister of Middle Class Prosperity.

Should a government need a minister whose job is to ensure Canadians are prospering? One might reasonably hope that’s the goal of pretty much any minister when she rolls out of bed in the morning. But they sure don’t always act that way, so maybe a Minister for Making People Richer isn’t such a bad thing..."

https://globalnews.ca/news/6262739/c...ancial-crisis/

Canadian economy shed 71K jobs in November — biggest loss since the financial crisis

December 6, 2019 8:44 am

The Canadian November labour market posted its biggest monthly job loss and largest unemployment upswing since the financial crisis over a decade ago, Statistics Canada data show. The economy shed 71,200 jobs last month, while the jobless rate jumped to 5.9 per cent, up from 5.5 per cent in October...

...The goods-producing sector lost 26,600 jobs in the month as the number of manufacturing jobs fell by 27,500 jobs and the natural resources sector shed 6,500...

...Regionally, Ontario and Prince Edward Island were the only provinces to see job growth in the month. Quebec lost 45,100 jobs in November due to a decline in manufacturing as well as accommodation and food services. Alberta and B.C. both lost 18,200 jobs.

[jk]

Re: Trump:- Looking good (Job numbers)

i bought some long dated puts on fxc recently.

[Mega]

Re: Trump:- Looking good (Job numbers)

GRG/JK
I been thinking that this might be a good time to go Long on oil.

Greta Thornberg/Musk etc......."we don't need no stinking oil"
Fracking boom now failing

As for our beloved Tree hugging politco's whom have mostly NEVER had a real job in their lives thus little grip on how the World fuctions.......
Pay backs a bitch!

Take Germany, That fat uglay ex Stasi bitch that runs it said proudly how there are days when Germany burns no Cole or Gas & is powered just by Green engery.
She "forgot" to say anything about the nuclear power imported from France Or the Cole minned in de Fatherland is shipped to Poland, where its burnt in power stations....the power is then exported BACK to Germany !!!!

I said it once, I say it again............once we have an DEPRESSION, this Green/electric car shit is over!

Mike

[jk]

Re: Trump:- Looking good (Job numbers)

fwiw i've been buying energy and oil stocks over the last few months, along with some other commodity related vehicles. it's early, though, probably quite early, barring geopolitical drama.

[GRG55]

Re: Trump:- Looking good (Job numbers)

i bought some long dated puts on fxc recently.

Have you changed your view about the eventual direction of the USD?

GRG/JK
I been thinking that this might be a good time to go Long on oil.

...

Oil looks cheap. I prefer a basket of the dividend paying multi-national majors however. Starting wtih Exxon.

[Mega]

Re: Trump:- Looking good (Job numbers)

Care to list them?

BP/TOTAL ?

It might be too soon, what if the World ecom crashes?
Cheers
Mike

[jk]

Re: Trump:- Looking good (Job numbers)

Have you changed your view about the eventual direction of the USD?

no, the dollar HAS to go down in the intermediate and long term. the only question is: against what? i'm not sure about how it will be relative to other currencies, as they are likely to lose value as well, so all i can say is "against stuff." but the loonie looks like it has to go down in the near term.

--------------

Oil looks cheap. I prefer a basket of the dividend paying multi-national majors however. Starting wtih Exxon.

Care to list them?

re basket of dividend paying energy stocks
an easy way to participate is the cef bgr. it distributes 8.4% currently, but part of that is a return of capital. it is actually paying about 6.4%

https://www.cefconnect.com/fund/BGR

alternately ixc is a global, cap-weighted etf, much more diversified than the purely american ones, paying about 4%

https://www.etf.com/IXC#overview

[Mega]

Re: Trump:- Looking good (Job numbers)

Ah................the Good old days, God bless Jimmy

[touchring]

Re: Trump:- Looking good (Job numbers)

Have you changed your view about the eventual direction of the USD?

Oil looks cheap. I prefer a basket of the dividend paying multi-national majors however. Starting wtih Exxon.

Not suncor?

[GRG55]

Re: Trump:- Looking good (Job numbers)

Not suncor?

My criteria for buying and selling Suncor is well documented in past postings. Buy it when it falls below CAN $28 on the Toronto Exchange. Start selling when it breaks above $40. You should be out of the stock entirely when it hits $45.

At this time I can't come up with any good reason to own any Canadian energy stocks whatsoever.

no, the dollar HAS to go down in the intermediate and long term. the only question is: against what? i'm not sure about how it will be relative to other currencies, as they are likely to lose value as well, so all i can say is "against stuff." but the loonie looks like it has to go down in the near term...

I've been quite negative on the Loonie for some years now, limiting my investment portfolio to a maximum 5% Canadian economy exposure for at least the past 5 years. If anything my pessimism about the Canadian economy and the exchange value of the Loonie is increasing; I agree with your view. Unless the Federal Government comes to its senses rather quickly, and there is no evidence of that at the moment, a 61 cent CAN $ is well within the realm of the possible.

The one thing that might derail it is the US Federal Reserve deciding to aggressively cut rates in quick succession, while the Bank of Canada deliberately trails as it tries to hold up the currency over fear of inflation.


Last Update: 8 Dec 2019 21:15 GMT+0
The Canada 10Y Government Bond has a 1.584% yield.
10 Years vs 2 Years bond spread is -7.4 bp.
Yield Curve is inverted in Long-Term vs Short-Term Maturities.

	2Y vs 1Y	-2.8 bp		Yield Curve is inverted in Short-Term Maturities
	5Y vs 2Y	-6.4 bp		Yield Curve is inverted in Mid-Term vs Short-Term Maturities
	10Y vs 2Y	-7.4 bp		Yield Curve is inverted in Long-Term vs Short-Term Maturities

[Mega]

Re: Trump:- Looking good (Job numbers)

Just think it might be a GREAT time to go long Oil..............

[jk]

Re: Trump:- Looking good (Job numbers)

grg? would canadian energy companies be a good way to hold oil? their prices will be set globally, while their costs are in loonies.

[GRG55]

Re: Trump:- Looking good (Job numbers)

grg? would canadian energy companies be a good way to hold oil? their prices will be set globally, while their costs are in loonies.

The concern I have about Canadian hydrocarbon energy companies is the enormously hostile governments, both Provincial (primarily B.C. and Quebec) and Federal. I am quite certain these governments will continue to obstruct investment in this sector in Canada, and increase both direct and indirect taxation on the companies. That makes it very difficult as the oil & gas industry is among the most capital intensive on earth.

It is difficult to describe how incompetent our Federal Government has become, and the long term damage and declining living standards that will result from the policy implementations of the past few years and currently being contemplated. The people in charge, particularly the Prime Minister and the Finance Minister, are individually so wealthy none of the fallout will be of any consequence to them or their families.

I am preferring the large multi-national oil companies that have significant exposure to the best assets in the US domestic shale plays.

[jk]

Re: Trump:- Looking good (Job numbers)

The concern I have about Canadian hydrocarbon energy companies is the enormously hostile governments, both Provincial (primarily B.C. and Quebec) and Federal. I am quite certain these governments will continue to obstruct investment in this sector in Canada, and increase both direct and indirect taxation on the companies. That makes it very difficult as the oil & gas industry is among the most capital intensive on earth.

It is difficult to describe how incompetent our Federal Government has become, and the long term damage and declining living standards that will result from the policy implementations of the past few years and currently being contemplated.
.

wasn't the goose that laid golden eggs dissected in the end?

and to add to your point- it's also interesting that the canadian gov't thinks it's preferable to ship oil in railroad cars rather than pipelines.