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Re: Saudi gets SLAPPED ! (Oil going to $100?)
Different view, of course, and appreciated. And yes, we armchair analysts have our biases. Unlike the pro's who are ever so objective.
I don't have any insider info. Just interested and have plenty of time to read and make inferences, one of which is that over the last several decades it's been plainly evident that Russia and Iran both needed to develop some means to protect themselves against the threat from the United States and its allies. Both found unique ways to build deterrence that fit their situation, and true to form, neither the U.S. nor its allies reacted to those developments by adapting their strategies or military means. It is only recently that the U.S. woke up to the real situation. Maybe the loss of half its oil export capacity will finally wake up Saudi Arabia? Most of our other allies are still asleep and dreaming.
When NATO extended into eastern Europe and the U.S. left the ABM Treaty, Russia announced that it would develop countermeasures to keep the U.S. deterred from attacking it. Ten years later, Russia delivered on its promise. It had developed a number of new weapons that can defeat the ballistic missile defense the U.S. installed. It also put emphasis on its own air and missile defense, as well as on radar and on electronic countermeasures that are so good that a U.S. general described them as "eye-watering". Stealth isn't really all that stealthy anymore.
Did you happen to see Putin troll Trump by offering him Russian hypersonic missiles a few days back? Well, just yesterday during a press conference in Ankara with his Turkish and Iranian colleagues, Putin trolled Saudi Arabia (@38:20) with a similar offer as he had made to Trump. Erdogan, Rouhani and Putin all laughed over this exchange.
U.S. allies, who have to buy U.S. weapons, have followed a similar defense investment strategy as the U.S. itself. They bought weapon systems that are most useful for wars of aggression but never felt the need to invest in defensive weapon systems that are needed when their enemies prove capable of hitting back. That's why Saudi Arabia has more than 350 modern fighter planes but only a relative few medium and long-range air defense systems and these root back to the days when I used to wear OD green and a ball cap one weekend a month and wide ties and bell bottoms the rest of the time.
The Saudi air defense is only able to protect certain economic and social centers. Most of its borders and its military bases are not covered. Moreover the protection it has in place is unidirectional. The PAC-2 and PAC-3 systems are sector defenses as their radars do not rotate. They can only see an arc of 120°. In the case of the Saudis those radars only look towards the east to Iran which they see as the most likely axis of attack. That left the crude oil processing plant in Abqaiq completely unprotected against attacks from any other direction. And my guess is neither Saudi Arabia nor the U.S. really know where the attack came from.
Maybe I overestimate the Russian kit, but their experience against the U.S. directed drone swarm attacks against its airbase in Hmeymim, Syria was impressive. They showed us that short range air defenses and electronic countermeasures are the best defense against mass drone and cruise missile attacks. And why is it that Saudi Arabia doesn't have short range air defenses against drones and cruise missiles? Because the U.S. doesn't have one worth a damn, that's why. It also doesn't have sophisticated electronic countermeasures because the U.S. can't sell them any decent ones, either. What they need are the Russian Pantsyr-S1 short range air defense, dozens of them, and the Krasukha-4 electronic warfare system. The Russians may well offer at least the first item, but the U.S. would never allow the Saudis to buy them. And it's too bad we can't buy them either, as it would save us a bundle in R&D (wink).
The pampered princes in Saudi Arabia, like our own planners, generals, and politicians, never took their opponents seriously. KSA bombed Yemen to smithereens and never really expected to be hit back. It long rallied the U.S. to wage war on Iran but took little measures to protect itself from an Iranian counter-reaction. And now the chickens are coming home to roost. After the long range attack from Yemen in August it knew that the Houthi's missile reach had increased, but it ignored the warning and took zero measures to protect the Abqaiq processing center which is a choke point for half its income.
Iran, in contrast, developed its weapons along an asymmetric strategy just as Russia did. Iran does not have a modern air force. It doesn't need one because it is not aggressive or expansive, and where they do go on the offense, they employ small, targeted, unconventional operations. It has long developed other means to deter the U.S., Saudi Arabia and other opponents in the Middle East. It has a large number of self-developed medium range ballistic missiles and a whole zoo of short to medium range drones and cruise missiles. It can hit any economic or military target within 2,000 kilometers.
It also makes its own air defenses and have a pretty good track record putting them to work, recently taking down an expensive U.S. drone. And they're getting pretty good at reverse engineering those trophies. They're also pretty good diplomats. Iran developed relations to friendly population groups in other countries and trained and equipped them with the necessary defensive means. These are Hizbullah in Lebanon, various groups in the Syria, the PMG/Hashd in Iraq, the Houthi in Yemen and Islamic Jihad in Gaza. Now none of these groups is a full proxy for Iran and they all have their own local politics and aren't shy about disagreeing with their partner. But when pressed or when interests align, they are willing to act on Iran's behalf.
Iran developed a number of weapons exclusively for its allies that differ from the ones it itself uses. It enables its partners to build those weapons themselves. The cruise missile and drones that the Houthi in Yemen use are different from the one Iran uses for its own forces. Iran thereby has plausible deniability when attacks like the recent one on Abquiq happen. And more importantly, if Iran supplied drones with 1,500 kilometer reach to its allies in Yemen, that means that its allies in Lebanon, Syria and Iraq and elsewhere have access to much the same.
The Saudis long failed to take Iran's counter strategy into considerations just like the U.S. failed to consider the Russian one. Both will have to change their aggressive strategies. Both will now have to re-develop real defensive means.
Originally posted by lakedaemonian
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I don't have any insider info. Just interested and have plenty of time to read and make inferences, one of which is that over the last several decades it's been plainly evident that Russia and Iran both needed to develop some means to protect themselves against the threat from the United States and its allies. Both found unique ways to build deterrence that fit their situation, and true to form, neither the U.S. nor its allies reacted to those developments by adapting their strategies or military means. It is only recently that the U.S. woke up to the real situation. Maybe the loss of half its oil export capacity will finally wake up Saudi Arabia? Most of our other allies are still asleep and dreaming.
When NATO extended into eastern Europe and the U.S. left the ABM Treaty, Russia announced that it would develop countermeasures to keep the U.S. deterred from attacking it. Ten years later, Russia delivered on its promise. It had developed a number of new weapons that can defeat the ballistic missile defense the U.S. installed. It also put emphasis on its own air and missile defense, as well as on radar and on electronic countermeasures that are so good that a U.S. general described them as "eye-watering". Stealth isn't really all that stealthy anymore.
Did you happen to see Putin troll Trump by offering him Russian hypersonic missiles a few days back? Well, just yesterday during a press conference in Ankara with his Turkish and Iranian colleagues, Putin trolled Saudi Arabia (@38:20) with a similar offer as he had made to Trump. Erdogan, Rouhani and Putin all laughed over this exchange.
U.S. allies, who have to buy U.S. weapons, have followed a similar defense investment strategy as the U.S. itself. They bought weapon systems that are most useful for wars of aggression but never felt the need to invest in defensive weapon systems that are needed when their enemies prove capable of hitting back. That's why Saudi Arabia has more than 350 modern fighter planes but only a relative few medium and long-range air defense systems and these root back to the days when I used to wear OD green and a ball cap one weekend a month and wide ties and bell bottoms the rest of the time.
The Saudi air defense is only able to protect certain economic and social centers. Most of its borders and its military bases are not covered. Moreover the protection it has in place is unidirectional. The PAC-2 and PAC-3 systems are sector defenses as their radars do not rotate. They can only see an arc of 120°. In the case of the Saudis those radars only look towards the east to Iran which they see as the most likely axis of attack. That left the crude oil processing plant in Abqaiq completely unprotected against attacks from any other direction. And my guess is neither Saudi Arabia nor the U.S. really know where the attack came from.
Maybe I overestimate the Russian kit, but their experience against the U.S. directed drone swarm attacks against its airbase in Hmeymim, Syria was impressive. They showed us that short range air defenses and electronic countermeasures are the best defense against mass drone and cruise missile attacks. And why is it that Saudi Arabia doesn't have short range air defenses against drones and cruise missiles? Because the U.S. doesn't have one worth a damn, that's why. It also doesn't have sophisticated electronic countermeasures because the U.S. can't sell them any decent ones, either. What they need are the Russian Pantsyr-S1 short range air defense, dozens of them, and the Krasukha-4 electronic warfare system. The Russians may well offer at least the first item, but the U.S. would never allow the Saudis to buy them. And it's too bad we can't buy them either, as it would save us a bundle in R&D (wink).
The pampered princes in Saudi Arabia, like our own planners, generals, and politicians, never took their opponents seriously. KSA bombed Yemen to smithereens and never really expected to be hit back. It long rallied the U.S. to wage war on Iran but took little measures to protect itself from an Iranian counter-reaction. And now the chickens are coming home to roost. After the long range attack from Yemen in August it knew that the Houthi's missile reach had increased, but it ignored the warning and took zero measures to protect the Abqaiq processing center which is a choke point for half its income.
Iran, in contrast, developed its weapons along an asymmetric strategy just as Russia did. Iran does not have a modern air force. It doesn't need one because it is not aggressive or expansive, and where they do go on the offense, they employ small, targeted, unconventional operations. It has long developed other means to deter the U.S., Saudi Arabia and other opponents in the Middle East. It has a large number of self-developed medium range ballistic missiles and a whole zoo of short to medium range drones and cruise missiles. It can hit any economic or military target within 2,000 kilometers.
It also makes its own air defenses and have a pretty good track record putting them to work, recently taking down an expensive U.S. drone. And they're getting pretty good at reverse engineering those trophies. They're also pretty good diplomats. Iran developed relations to friendly population groups in other countries and trained and equipped them with the necessary defensive means. These are Hizbullah in Lebanon, various groups in the Syria, the PMG/Hashd in Iraq, the Houthi in Yemen and Islamic Jihad in Gaza. Now none of these groups is a full proxy for Iran and they all have their own local politics and aren't shy about disagreeing with their partner. But when pressed or when interests align, they are willing to act on Iran's behalf.
Iran developed a number of weapons exclusively for its allies that differ from the ones it itself uses. It enables its partners to build those weapons themselves. The cruise missile and drones that the Houthi in Yemen use are different from the one Iran uses for its own forces. Iran thereby has plausible deniability when attacks like the recent one on Abquiq happen. And more importantly, if Iran supplied drones with 1,500 kilometer reach to its allies in Yemen, that means that its allies in Lebanon, Syria and Iraq and elsewhere have access to much the same.
The Saudis long failed to take Iran's counter strategy into considerations just like the U.S. failed to consider the Russian one. Both will have to change their aggressive strategies. Both will now have to re-develop real defensive means.
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