United IRELAND?

[Mega]

Nigel FarageVerified account @Nigel_Farage 3h3 hours ago More

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The Boris bravado has disappeared in Dublin, saying No Deal would be a “failure of statecraft”.He is now going all out for Mrs May’s “deal”, with Northern Ireland to be hived off from the rest of the UK. A clean break Brexit is the only way forward.

[GRG55]

Re: United IRELAND?

A good observation on the generally deplorable state of British governance and statecraft over the past three years since the Brexit vote.

I see Her Majesty has given Royal Assent to the "no deal Brexit" law, and Bercow has resigned effective Oct 31.

a no deal Brexit still seems the highest probability outcome at the moment.

[Mega]

Re: United IRELAND?

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/art...al-Brexit.html

Mike

[GRG55]

Re: United IRELAND?

Last week someone made the comment of the pro-Remain Daily Mail that 80% of its readers would rather be ruled by Berlin instead of governed by Westminster.

[Mega]

Re: United IRELAND?

Everything now up in the air

[GRG55]

Re: United IRELAND?

Everything now up in the air

Same as it was for three years under Prime Minister May. Only difference is there won't be multiple extensions before something has to happen.

Boris' best outcome is a negotiated Brexit one step better than either May's deal or a no-deal-Brexit, by mid-October, then put the Remainers and the hapless Labourites in a position where they have to support it, or the default is a no-deal on Oct 31. If he pulls it off he'll clean up in the November election.

He has 5 weeks, without the distraction of the House of Commons, to do it, and I think he and Dominic Cummings have been brilliant in how they have set him up for that now.

The Remainers claim to respect the referendum result but repeatedly block Brexit.
Labour is exposed as the hypocrites they are, claiming to want an election, but refusing to vote for one; and even worse, voting to force a negotiated deal while Shadow Cabinet members admit they will campaign against it in the election.
And the insufferable Bercow is shortly to be gone for good.
The voters aren't stupid.
Sometimes there's a need for some courage for brinkmanship in politics (no, not the Trump kind).

As for the EU, I cannot see they would have great desire to try to keep the UK in, knowing full well Brexit sentiment in Britain isn't going to go away, and they will have to keep dealing with it (and Farage) rearing its ugly head over and over again in the future.
The EU now has to pick its poison. Step away from its hard-line position and negotiate with a "reasonable" Boris Johnson, knowing he has now engineered the leverage for himself to get an acceptable deal through Parliament, face the prospect of a potentially chaotic no-deal Brexit, or something worse - a compromised Corbyn government where large numbers of Labour supporters voted for Brexit.

Boris is going to be feasting on a diet of M&Ms (Merkel and Macron) the next 5 weeks.

[jk]

Re: United IRELAND?

usually a parliamentary system won't be deadlocked, but i think the brexit mess reflects the genuine ambivalence of the uk, at least as expressed in the wildly over-simplified referendum of 3 years ago. and as varadkar said this week, there can't be a "clean" brexit - there will be years of negotiations on trade and border arrangements. i think the uk is as deadlocked as the divided u.s. gov't, and it appears realignments are unfolding on both sides of the pond. but if you crack open a chrysalis you don't get a baby butterfly, you get a mess.

[Mega]

Re: United IRELAND?

[GRG55]

Re: United IRELAND?

Same as it was for three years under Prime Minister May. Only difference is there won't be multiple extensions before something has to happen.

Boris' best outcome is a negotiated Brexit one step better than either May's deal or a no-deal-Brexit, by mid-October, then put the Remainers and the hapless Labourites in a position where they have to support it, or the default is a no-deal on Oct 31. If he pulls it off he'll clean up in the November election.

He has 5 weeks, without the distraction of the House of Commons, to do it, and I think he and Dominic Cummings have been brilliant in how they have set him up for that now.

The Remainers claim to respect the referendum result but repeatedly block Brexit.
Labour is exposed as the hypocrites they are, claiming to want an election, but refusing to vote for one; and even worse, voting to force a negotiated deal while Shadow Cabinet members admit they will campaign against it in the election.
And the insufferable Bercow is shortly to be gone for good.
The voters aren't stupid.
Sometimes there's a need for some courage for brinkmanship in politics (no, not the Trump kind).

As for the EU, I cannot see they would have great desire to try to keep the UK in, knowing full well Brexit sentiment in Britain isn't going to go away, and they will have to keep dealing with it (and Farage) rearing its ugly head over and over again in the future.
The EU now has to pick its poison. Step away from its hard-line position and negotiate with a "reasonable" Boris Johnson, knowing he has now engineered the leverage for himself to get an acceptable deal through Parliament, face the prospect of a potentially chaotic no-deal Brexit, or something worse - a compromised Corbyn government where large numbers of Labour supporters voted for Brexit.

Boris is going to be feasting on a diet of M&Ms (Merkel and Macron) the next 5 weeks.

Well, well. Imagine that...

Thursday 19 September 2019 18:17, UK

'Progress' as Britain shares partial plans with EU to break Brexit deadlock

Prime Minister Boris Johnson has said he thinks progress is being made, after Britain submitted written documents to the EU to try to break the Brexit deadlock.

A UK government spokesperson confirmed the "confidential technical non-papers which reflect the ideas the UK has been putting forward" were shared with Brussels.

They added: "We will table formal written solutions when we are ready, not according to an artificial deadline, and when the EU is clear that it will engage constructively on them as a replacement for the backstop."

https://news.sky.com/story/britain-r...to-eu-11813824

Friday 20 September 2019 07:23, UK

Jean-Claude Juncker: 'We can have a deal' and 'Brexit will happen'

The European Commission President said a no-deal Brexit would be "catastrophic" and he was doing "everything to get a deal".

...But Mr Juncker did confirm to Sky News that he was now prepared to get rid of the controversial backstop plan, designed to prevent the return of a hard border between Ireland and Northern Ireland, but only on condition that "alternative arrangements [are put in place] allowing us and Britain to achieve the main objectives of the backstop."

The backstop has been widely criticised as having the potential to tie Britain to European Union rules for an indefinite amount of time...



https://news.sky.com/story/jean-clau...appen-11814207

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=l3uyjXJl2Fw&app=desktop

[jk]

Re: United IRELAND?

interesting to try to imagine what a simplified deal might look like. i would imagine the only real solution to the backstop problem is to make the customs border be the irish sea, i.e. to keep northern ireland in the eu customs union while politically still part of the uk. the dup strongly opposes this, but boris has already lost his nominal majority, and probably figures he won't need the dup after the coming election.

this would produce what i have seen called "schroedinger's northern ireland."

[GRG55]

Re: United IRELAND?

interesting to try to imagine what a simplified deal might look like. i would imagine the only real solution to the backstop problem is to make the customs border be the irish sea, i.e. to keep northern ireland in the eu customs union while politically still part of the uk. the dup strongly opposes this, but boris has already lost his nominal majority, and probably figures he won't need the dup after the coming election.

this would produce what i have seen called "schroedinger's northern ireland."

That appears to be where this is headed.

The DUP is now on board, and publicly criticizing the Irish government for being obstructionist.
The DUP is reading the public sentiment and perhaps sees a chance, with the Johnson Tories, to bury Labour in the next election.

As I posted a couple of weeks ago, above, Johnson's best outcome is a deal one step better than either "no-deal" Brexit or May's deal that was repeatedly rejected by Parliament.

Johnson in Parliament yesterday:

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=35jdA6...tjReb78WWkgr4Q

[Mega]

Re: United IRELAND?

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/art...extension.html

I can only say very LITTLE work going on to "prep" for leaving..........

[GRG55]

Re: United IRELAND?

https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitic...arage-brussels


"...Last night, the plan won the backing of former PM David Cameron who told an audience that Johnson had a "good chance" of winning a deal with the EU..."



Pressure is all on the EU now. An extension may be agreed, but only if the EU is actively engaged in good faith negotiations around the Johnson proposal. The Remainers in the UK and the EU are dreaming if they think they can stop Brexit now.

[jk]

Re: United IRELAND?

https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitic...arage-brussels


"...Last night, the plan won the backing of former PM David Cameron who told an audience that Johnson had a "good chance" of winning a deal with the EU..."



Pressure is all on the EU now. An extension may be agreed, but only if the EU is actively engaged in good faith negotiations around the Johnson proposal. The Remainers in the UK and the EU are dreaming if they think they can stop Brexit now.

that IS hardball. threatening to veto the eu budget and to send farage as the uk's eu commissioner is like 2 nuclear warheads. either one would be threat enough. i wonder which outcome farage would prefer: as much as he wants brexit, i can imagine him taking great joy in creating a huge fuss at such a high level in brussels.

[GRG55]

Re: United IRELAND?

that IS hardball. threatening to veto the eu budget and to send farage as the uk's eu commissioner is like 2 nuclear warheads. either one would be threat enough. i wonder which outcome farage would prefer: as much as he wants brexit, i can imagine him taking great joy in creating a huge fuss at such a high level in brussels.

I don't agree with everything in Mike Shedlock's analysis below, but I did find the excerpts from Eurointelligence were interesting.

https://moneymaven.io/mishtalk/econo...UKsE-q85a-JIA/

The EU 's diffuse decision making processes increase the probability of a no-deal Brexit.

Unless the Remainers can find a way for the UK Courts to permanently invalidate the results of the referendum on some obscure technical legal argument, in due course Brexit is going to happen, one way or another. The longer it drags on, the more damage to both the UK economy, and to the reputation and confidence in Parliament.The Remainers are being tagged with the greatest portion of the responsibility for this situation now.

#10 Downing continues to play a better game than the opposition.

The Lib Dems and outcast Conservatives won't support Corbyn for PM. Labour won't support anyone except Corbyn for PM. The ball is in the EU court to respond to Johnson's deal proposals. But time is short given the looming EU summit starting on Oct 17.

Highly likely Johnson will have to request the extension he is now legally required to seek. If the EU grants it in the absence of solid progress towards a negotiated Brexit around the Johnson proposals it will be a nightmare for the EU. Not quite check + mate yet, but the Johnson & Cummings are slowly closing off the room left to move on the board.

As an aside, I find it humorous that Macron is concerned that Brexit might allow the UK a competitive economic advantage over France, and the increasingly sclerotic and disfunctional EU. Doh!