I fear for America

[Mega]

Re: I fear for America

Ok, Trump IS in for 2020..............the DNC need to drop the Loony left................

Perhaps if we had a "Brexit party" but fighting for America healthcare, make it a one issue party?....................then it can lend its streght to DNC ?
Mike

[Mega]

Re: I fear for America

The DNC must become bad

[dcarrigg]

Re: I fear for America

Last time we used it was a couple weeks ago for a tick bite. $120 for 5 minutes with a nurse practitioner at CVS to confirm it was in fact a deer tick and a script for exactly 2 pills of Doxycycline. It goes for 50¢ a pill for the dog at the vet. And that's with insurance. Without it it would have been $300 something. They're charging $40 per nurse-minute and $50 per pill.

The whole thing is framed wrong. It's a bubble.

We're spending almost $4 trillion per year on healthcare right now. We were spending $2.5 trillion 10 years ago and $1 trillion in 2000.
Compare that to corporate debt, $6.5 trillion now, $3.5 trillion 10 years ago, and $2.5 trillion in 2000.
Obamacare put a temporary dent in the curve. But it's ramping up again now.

Anyways, the Dems are in trouble because half of them don't want to fix the problem and are on the payroll of the healthcare industry. Pharma and insurance are the 2 biggest lobby groups in the country. Way bigger than the chamber and big oil. So they don't care. And the GOP cares even less. $4 billion in bribe money per year comes directly out of pharma. Another $3 billion comes out of insurance. And which insurance company spends the most on lobbying? The "non-profit" Blue Cross and Blue Shield. They actually spend more than Pfizer, who spends the most out of the Pharma companies. Because health insurance is big business.

It's pain now or worse pain later. The lobbyists will keep lobbying to make it more expensive. The companies will keep charging more every day. And eventually it'll collapse by their own doing if not by anything else. They're not gonna just wake up one day and think, "I've got enough revenue, this is good." And when people are really sick or injured, they're going to get to a point where they need to go to hospital. And hospitals can charge whatever they want at will without anyone's consent. They're charging $10,000 for an x-ray and a fiberglass cast. You can buy an x-ray imager for $500 and a 10-pack of cotton sleeves and casting tape for $50. There's plenty of youtube videos on how to do it.

If about an additional 2% of the country goes uninsured every year, which is what's happening, and a huge chunk of the rest pay more even with insurance by thousands per year, then I don't see how the status quo can continue without a major systemic failure.

And keep in mind, that 2% is a targeted group. It's nobody over 65, because they get Medicare. It's no combat veterans because they get VA. And it's nobody poor enough for Medicaid. So it's young people with jobs. They're the 30 million uninsured soon to be 35 million in a few months. And 50 million by the end of 2022. There's about 200 million people 18-64. So one out of 4 will have nothing. Right now it's 1 out of 6. And if you subtract the 30 million on Medicaid and the millions in the VA from that pool, suddenly the picture is even worse for young people with jobs.

Even if we leave it all to the market and Pfizer and Blue Cross get everything their little hearts desire, and we probably will, that's what we're looking at in the next administration.

And let's say you're right and Trump gets in. Now we're looking at minimum 2025 until anything at all could be done. By then it's the entire population of the UK uninsured.

5% more of the total 18-35 population went uninsured just now.

I don't think it's really sinking in how fast the trajectory is, because it has only been 2 years. But this is during an economic boom. With the lowest unemployment we've had since the 1960s. And millions are losing coverage every year. Imagine what happens in a downturn if you add in an additional 5% unemployment to the mix. We could easily see a 1-year 10 million person jump in this environment.

I mean, pretty good bet that by right now in 2019, 1 out of 4 kids under 35 has no healthcare when it was 1 out of 6 in 2016. What do you think it will be in 2022? 1 out of 3? 1 out of 2?



The same cast that was $2,000 in 2000 and $5,000 in 2010 is $10,000 now. But wages are flat. I don't know how they expect the math to work when it's $20,000 in 2030 and wages are still flat. Insulin prices doubled in the last 4 years. What happens when they double again by 2024? By 2028? They'll want $24k per year just for the minimum amount of vials at that point. It went from $3,000 to $6,000 already in the past 4 years. At what point is it worth just buying a plane ticket? It's already so bad that Canada's worried its supplies will run out due to Americans hopping the border to where it's $50.

So that's the bubble, right? I mean, it'll do what bubbles do. And the revenue of these companies will crash if they don't keep hiking prices. So they will. They have no incentive not to. Demand to not die is infinite. The efficient market price is all your money. Maybe it's bound a little by medical tourism. But only so much. Most people just pay the $6,000 and suffer. And I suspect most people will just pay the $12,000 when it doubles again. But by $24,000, they can't. They just have no way to earn $2,000 per month after taxes to feed the beast. $500 they can do. $1,000 maybe in a stretch. More than that, and it's blood from a stone.

Since the whole system is predicated on revenue growth, and population's not growing that fast, they have to raise prices every year or sell more volume of shit. The volume sales are how we got wonderful things like the opiate crisis. It wasn't all china. That fentanyl spray was manufactured by good old fashioned American small business entrepreneurs running games right here in my backyard.

It's Martin Skrelis all the way down.

I really mean it. It's a dirtier industry than investment banking. Corrupt and rotten to the core. And all the valuations are based on the premise of future revenue growth. So of course it becomes a bubble and prices spiral out of control.

Bubbles can last a long time. And they can re-inflate. But they're not robust.

So the question is: How many uninsured and underinsured the system can take before revenues decline?

Of course, if revenues go up, we will get more uninsured and underinsured because people cannot afford higher prices.

But the industry doesn't want revenue growth to slow down. And the politicians get their lobby money to keep the party going. So temperance ain't likely to take root.

The cost is now $15,000 per employee on average. That's not counting all the bills and fees. Just the coverage. If it's $30,000 in 2030, will any employer offer it? Certainly not for any lower-level employees.

As it is, even for people whose employers do offer insurance, deductibles have quadrupled in the last 12 years. And people are getting pissed off. So what happens if they quadruple again in the next 12 years? That $6,000 you gotta pay before the insurance kicks in becomes $24,000. What then?

I mean, this isn't just idle frustration. At some point either all those healthcare stocks and pharma stocks have to have a serious downward revision in their growth projections. Or else they need to sink their teeth into another big country and suck it dry as they bleed Americans. Because there's just not enough money in the majority of the country to let them keep growing at this rate for 10 more years.

Bacteria double in a petri dish. And they double. And double. Until they hit the wall, exhaust all the agar, and die.

We've been doubling for decades. But we got maybe one more double left before the wall. We're right there.

[Mega]

Re: I fear for America

You got to get The People + Bussiness V Big Drug..............its the only way

Mike

[Mega]

Re: I fear for America

Meantime
https://news.sky.com/story/texas-pol...-rope-11778903

What sort of "skills" are required to be a Police officer

[dcarrigg]

Re: I fear for America

Business is big drug. Healthcare is nearly a quarter of our economy. Government's minus gov healthcare is another quarter. Half is everything else, and shrinking.

[Mega]

Re: I fear for America

Eh...................become British ?
Just a thought
Mike

[Mega]

Re: I fear for America

A leson in Free market Eco-matics
https://news.sky.com/story/pension-r...ister-11778994

[Woodsman]

Re: I fear for America

Business is big drug. Healthcare is nearly a quarter of our economy. Government's minus gov healthcare is another quarter. Half is everything else, and shrinking.

Somehow I'm less than convinced that government can do healthcare better and cheaper, considering their track record. But I'll work to keep an open mind as it's obvious you've spent much time in the weeds here. So which candidate is closest to your vision of this great new government healthcare system, DC?

[dcarrigg]

Re: I fear for America

Ok. You're living your dream. You already got your way. This is the system you want. We're living it. If God sees fit to give us each 10 more years on this rock, talk to me then about how great Crassus' for profit healthcare was for the republic. And we know how you and yours have always loved the republic.

[Woodsman]

Re: I fear for America

Ok. You're living your dream. You already got your way. This is the system you want. We're living it. If God sees fit to give us each 10 more years on this rock, talk to me then about how great Crassus' for profit healthcare was for the republic. And we know how you and yours have always loved the republic.

I sure as hell am. Loving every minute I have left. Grateful for every little thing. Pretty damn proud of myself, my ancestors, my posterity, too. I don't worry about the future, because I know my crew has the stones to weather any storm. They got here before the United States was even a thing. Then they went ahead and built it, after defeating the world's most powerful empire. Cut open a path across the continent, served with distinction and had the confidence of great men, made some money, lost some too. Put a lot of sons and daughters in the ground way too early. Lost everything in the last civil war, built it all back up again. And set things up real nice for your crew when they got off the boat. Gave them a prosperous and growing country for your people to take part in. I'm living the dream because the folks before me lived theirs. So, yeah, me and mine always loved the republic, particularly because we built it, helped it grow, defended it with our lives, and were trusted enough to manage some big chunks of it. I'd say until the wheels came off in the early 60s, all and all, we did a pretty good job. You're welcome, by the way.

But back to you, fella. You sound like a real pissed off guy with a big chip on your shoulder. So maybe it's justified, maybe you got some real grievances, maybe life cut you a raw deal. Or maybe you just don't like me. I'm real sorry about that. Real sorry that things haven't fallen your way and I'm rooting for you. You're a real smart guy and maybe things would be better if you were in charge, or if folks would just listen to you for once. I get it. But here we are, you and me, clacking away on the keyboard. And I'm listening now. So you think you can put that anger and envy aside for a hot second and maybe give an old man the benefit of your intellect and wisdom?

I'm asking. Which candidate is closest to your dream? Who should we be looking at for leadership on this? Who's going to give us this great, government health plan?

[dcarrigg]

Re: I fear for America

I'm touched. Yet still thinking maybe you'd choose the bars over the stripes given the option. I'm happy to name names. Only request that you spill your plan first. Mine is extending Medicare, one way or the other. If you have a better one, me and the rest of the unpure are all ears.

[Woodsman]

Re: I fear for America

I'm touched. Yet still thinking maybe you'd choose the bars over the stripes given the option. I'm happy to name names. Only request that you spill your plan first. Mine is extending Medicare, one way or the other. If you have a better one, me and the rest of the unpure are all ears.

Now you know better than that. We played both sides of the fence. Blue and Gray. Now the Dixie wing of the family, I must admit, covered themselves in far more glory than the Yankee faction. Seems like all those people thought about was making hay before the sun went down. And timing is everything, right? Turns out they did better in the end. Then again, they had less ground to make up.

My plan is to stay healthy and then die. I'm the sorta guy who doesn't feel right telling others what they should do or what they shouldn't. I trust they can figure things out on their own, and if it turns out they can't, well then can't. We do what can for them, but there's a lot mouths to feed under our own roof, too. And they get priority, I must admit.

I would like to see a radical experiment, since we're dreaming out loud now. Something way out there that hasn't been tried in, what, 70 years? A real free market, no government intervention, no picking winners and losers, no subsidies, no federal intervention, save for public health and some basic regulatory work. At the very least, it would be nice to know the price of something so important before I bought it. Now I know that's crazy talk and I'm sure in those many thousands of words you've shared on the matter you no doubt told us why it's so. But we're just dreaming here and that never hurt nobody.

In terms of people, I really do want to see how the Trump show ends, seeing how I've enjoyed this first season so much. I especially like the audience participation part and how he's brought out of the woodwork just so many interesting and entertaining folks with some real peculiar ideas about what it means to be an American, how to behave in public, who's a friend and who's not. Seems like some of them weren't exactly ready to come out into the sunshine so soon, but then that's another thing to like about Trump.

But say he wasn't around, who would it be? You know how contrary I am and how I like to rub against the grain. So with that in mind, I might just pick old Bern again. Sure, the shine has worn off since the last go around and I expect he'll get the kids all riled up again only to let them down gently like last time. But we're dreaming out loud, right? And that Tulsi lady, she seems like someone we could be proud of. Makes more sense than just about any of the bunch. Gutsy, too, and doesn't seem afraid to scrap. And easy on the eyes. That Williamson woman, she's nice too. Well spoken and seems to be sincere. Not sure why she'd think politics would be a good place to practice her art, but stranger things have happened. And like you always say, it's time for new thinking. So what could be newer?

Like I said, you know how contrary I am. Whoever the media tells me I should avoid, whoever they say is most unreliable, un-electable, undesirable, we'll that's probably who I'd go with.

[dcarrigg]

Re: I fear for America

Ok. Well you're lucky. You got plenty of free market choices. In both parties. Enjoy them with as much glee as you enjoy the Trump show. You got your way then, and you're likely to again. If you sense a chip on my shoulder, it's only that same one that has been part of my inferior genetics for a thousand years. The plantation dream doesn't account for such things, no matter how pale we may be. And I don't suspect it ever will. But time keeps on ticking. You've got your LBJcare now. But keep it from the rest of us, and all those tough bastards you leave in posterity may just have to prove it. I'd rather they didn't. But us genetic inferiors have little impact on history in peacetime.

[Woodsman]

Re: I fear for America

... But us genetic inferiors have little impact on history in peacetime.

Inferior genetics? Son, you ought to wade in our gene pool and take a gander. Just be sure to lather and rinse thoroughly once you get out. Let's just say Williams and Faulkner weren't writing fiction, so much as transcribing family lore.

Don't be so hard on yourself, DC. The Good Lord gives us all kinds of blessings even if they are hard to recognize as such in the thick of it. And it's true, human biodiversity is a remarkable thing. So many distinct and separate types bequeathed with many traits and adaptations and a fair amount of maladaptations, too. But among the facts of life is the sometimes upsetting reality that some traits are superior than others. And when it comes to picking a dance partner or a law partner, we all want the best we can find, don't we? So we make selections and exclusions, that's hardly controversial. And Lord help us, the disasters that we court if we fail to select wisely. Only fallen as we are, some can't help themselves and succumb to the Devil's bargain thinking somehow the luck of birth and wise choices entitles them to more than what's theirs or that they can earn by their own hands. And don't that always come to ruin, as every Devil's bargain will.

But sin is a debt that's always paid and it's the son's and daughters of the sinner who get the bill. Seems like that penance requires generations to carry the stain, and several more to be reminded of it. The past isn't even the past and we're blessed to have folks like you, DC, to remind us of our failures. Even if you had no skin in the game at the time or long after the fact. That's your blessing.

Insofar as inferior genetics go, I'm not equipped to say. All I can see is a lack of self confidence and a fair amount of envy manifesting as anger and hate. Fortunately attitude is more important that aptitude and so much easier to change. As for peace and making an impact on history, well you did mention that you and you're pals are anticipating an opportunity to rectify that soon, didn't you? Maybe a Devil's bargain of your own? Well that's all on you. My boys have too much to lose if the peace breaks. And God forbid it ever does. I tremble, knowing enough to expect no mercy from our cousins. Forgive us Lord, if we fail to show it ourselves.