Trump V AOC

[dcarrigg]

Re: Trump V AOC

Sure. They're feeding into it. I've just been of the mind this whole time that it's largely not going to matter. The House alone has very little power other than to say 'no' to legislation. Presidents will make the politics. And by the time there's a nominee, that's where the focus will be, not on the House. It's there that the policy platform is gonna matter, not what bills they sponsor now that get no hearing in the Senate. The EC math doesn't much care how moderate (read: wealthy) women in Orange County vote, even if they are permanently turned off by this move, which I doubt anyways.

I suppose my point was simply this: Right now it's Nancy Pelosi's party. This time next year it's gonna be somebody else's. Meanwhile the GOP will remain the party of Trump. I doubt much of what happens today will be very salient come November 2020.

[jk]

Re: Trump V AOC

yes, i agree. i'm counting on a bad recession becoming really obvious by about a year from now, latest. [i think it's already begun but equities are in denial.]

[dcarrigg]

Re: Trump V AOC

Saw this this morning: https://deloitte.wsj.com/cfo/2019/07...ignals-survey/

[Mega]

Re: Trump V AOC

Trump played them!
They look like totally a war with each other!
The Recession IS going to catch up with him, he knows this!...........so he playing another game.

Here is another one he playing
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/...otage-surfaces
Who has "leaked" this?...................TRUMP !!!!!!!

Sure he likes hot women, but Women NOT young girls!........The DNC (+ Media) will go off after this like a heat seeking missle, but it will NOT lead to Trump, more likely DNC contected people.............Trump knows this.

Mike

[jk]

Re: Trump V AOC

Saw this this morning: https://deloitte.wsj.com/cfo/2019/07...ignals-survey/

i think the "mild slowdown" scenario ignores the potential depth charge embodied in the 50% of ig which are bbb in the corporate bond market. and a corporate bond crash could easily spread to other markets, with repercussions in the real economy.

i'm always looking for buried positive feedback loops, like portfolio insurance in 1987. i think the bbb's which will be downgraded and FORCE sales by etf's and pensions with ig mandates may provide such an amplifying loop.

[Mega]

Re: Trump V AOC

THe other thing that I can't suss out is WHY you guys assume a recession = End of Trump?
I left school early 1980's....MASSIVE Recession, Tory party totally hated......Thatcher days were numbered........then "surprize" the Falklands are invaded.
With little to lose she goes all out with a massive gamble............& WINS!

On the back of that she wins the next election & few after that!

She was VERY unpopular.......everyone hated her.......but she kept WINNING elections........because the Labour party was totally crap & would have been a far worse choice than even her.

Trump is setting the ground work, fighting China, fighting for US Jobs, building the wall, ..............& the DNC?...............most of any good work will be drowned out by AOC & the Gang!

Given a choice between Creepy Old Joe & AOC...............Trump looks GOOD !!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Personal thoughts
Mike

[Mega]

Re: Trump V AOC

....and in English?

[dcarrigg]

Re: Trump V AOC

a shitload of corporate bonds are rated just barely over junk. pensions and endowments and other institutional funds often times aren't allowed to hold junk. so you get a minor slowdown and company's debts get downgraded one level, and suddenly big players have to dump them. takes a mild downturn and turns it into a bigger crash.

[dcarrigg]

Re: Trump V AOC

I don't assume that actually. I don't even know who the competition will be. I think it's gonna be a wipe out one way or the other. Don't think the direction is predetermined. Recessions generally work against the incumbent, sure. But I've never been sure which way it will go. I think Trump really didn't help himself by blowing his political capital on Paul Ryan's giant corporate tax cut. Had he insisted on giving the bulk of it to the little guy, he might have been nearly impossible to beat. But he did the opposite. So now we'll see.

One thing's for sure: That 4%+ growth is never gonna materialize. We can't even crack 3%. And the tax cuts once again were no panacea.

[vt]

Re: Trump V AOC

The same 4 members should who are very anti-semitic, which the house should have condemned.

[Mega]

Re: Trump V AOC

Ah.................Got you
Thanks

[Mega]

Re: Trump V AOC

Meantime, back in Blighty
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/money/mo...hs-market.html