Renewables set to outprice oil by 2020?

[vt]

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2019-...as-2020-report

[Techdread]

Re: Renewables set to outprice oil by 2020?

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2019-...as-2020-report

Good news, Nearly all our energy came or comes from the sun (exceptions nuclear and geothermal) , we know that we would need to cover an area the size of Spain to power all the worlds energy lets just get it done.

We have liquid metal storage batteries to store excess energy, funded by Bill Gates.

None of the problems we have globally are intractable, Global Warming is baked in but put a small subset of our best minds in finding solutions and we can turn it back.

We will manage it probably because there will be lots of money to be made mitigating the flooding in rich countries.

Dutch Engineers are going to make a fortune.

[dcarrigg]

Re: Renewables set to outprice oil by 2020?

Good news, Nearly all our energy came or comes from the sun (exceptions nuclear and geothermal) , we know that we would need to cover an area the size of Spain to power all the worlds energy lets just get it done.

We have liquid metal storage batteries to store excess energy, funded by Bill Gates.

None of the problems we have globally are intractable, Global Warming is baked in but put a small subset of our best minds in finding solutions and we can turn it back.

We will manage it probably because there will be lots of money to be made mitigating the flooding in rich countries.

Dutch Engineers are going to make a fortune.

I'll die on the hill that batteries suck outside of niche applications. Molten salt is better energy storage. Nevertheless, more renewables will come into the mix. Inverter tech has really come a long way in the last decade. Batteries are a big waste if you ask me. Environmentally intensive, expensive, and heavy. But we can and will add a lot more solar and wind into the mix regardless. Get a lot more watts out of a panel now. If you need a chunk of lng for load balancing for a few decades, it's not the end of the world. We really have made a lot of headway, and we will make more. But it won't be celebrity billionaires making the most important strides. It will be quiet policies, blue collar insulation blowers, local solar contractors, and the rest that do the yeomen's work.

[thriftyandboringinohio]

Re: Renewables set to outprice oil by 2020?

I'll die on the hill that batteries suck outside of niche applications...

I used to stand on that hill with you. But batteries and reversible fuel cells just keep getting better incrementally.
Stationary installations are so much different than vehicles - the batteries never jostle around, and weight and size don't matter at all - fifty tons and big as a barn are perfectly acceptable.
Solar and wind seem to have achieved a clear marketplace victory over oil and coal for power generation, and are running neck-and-neck with natural gas.
The last hurdle is grid scale storage, and it seems destined to fall.
As you say, we can run LNG or pipeline natural gas at night.

That video is bit too optimistic claiming 37 kWhr/sq ft of solar energy available. I would use half that as the theoretical maximum, and maybe a third of that as a realistic goal.
But their point holds none the less, there is a huge amount of solar power available and solar cells are getting dirt cheap.
Add wind turbines to the mix and we get just about there. There have been huge advances in energy conservation that go mostly unnoticed and underappreciated, but they might as well be power plants. A megawatt hour saved is every bit as useful as a megawatt hour generated.

You like molten salt for grid storage. Me, I like pumped storage hydro because a thirty foot diameter Francis turbine runner has a certain undeniable charm.
But the world is manufacturing so many millions of lithium batteries for electronics and vehicles they will undoubtedly play a big role.

[GRG55]

Re: Renewables set to outprice oil by 2020?

...But it won't be celebrity billionaires making the most important strides. It will be quiet policies, blue collar insulation blowers, local solar contractors, and the rest that do the yeomen's work.

I believe that. But I also believe it will be the wealthy and not the local solar contractor or insulation blower that will gain the lions share of the proceeds.

I'll begin with my obligatory cynic warning. Read on at your own risk.

From what I can see, so far, renewable energy may outstrip every previous effort to efficiently transfer wealth from the masses to the few. I'm not talking about the small business owner that comes around and layers some of those mythical "equal-in-cost-to-fossil-fuel" solar panels on your house, or the electrician you hire to wire up the Tesla not-so-supercharger in your garage. They will at least take the funds and use them to pay their suppliers and feed their families (one hopes).

I'm referring to the large scale commercial wind and solar farms. Heretofore these have mostly been funded by private equity and institutional fund managers that are absolutely in love with the government backstops, subsidies and long term incentive contracts the "new green economy" has created for them. In the USA, Canada, Australia, much of Europe and Japan, in particular.

Show me a jurisdiction anywhere in the world that has materially embraced renewable energy where the cost of power to the consumer did not go up. Show me a jurisdiction anywhere in the world where the consumer has benefited in the form of lower utility power costs from this trend (from the linked article): "solar energy costs have continued to come down precipitously for decades--without exception." Really? For whom?

Quoting from the article (while trying not to be irritated by its breathless promotional tone): "The funny thing is, growth of solar has been consistently underestimated over the past decade, with actual installations outstripping projections. This means there’s a fair chance that even the most optimistic current projections might still fall short of reality a decade or two from now."

And: "According to data by the Solar Energy Industries Association (SEIA), U.S.’ cumulative operating solar PV capacity stood at 62.4 GW by the end of 2018--about 75 times the installed capacity just a decade ago--supplying 1 percent of the country’s electricity needs."

I'm not sure if I should laugh, or if that would be considered deliberately impertinent.

Wind and solar power are not available on demand. Nor are they available on a predictable, intermittent schedule either (this is far from a 12 hours on, 12 hours off, day/night problem). And therein lies a very large part of the problem, that goes beyond the technology issues of batteries, brine, pumped hydro storage or hydrogen. It is one of economics (and appropriate for consideration in this forum ).

The intermittent nature of the supply, and the equally intermittent nature of the need to supply from storage means if we are to become dependent on wind and solar energy, and desire reliable on-demand power, the storage generally needs to be quite massive, perhaps multiples of the installed renewable generating supply it is backing. And that, in my view, will be completely impractical capital investment. It will take already expensive renewable energy and make it impossibly so. An energy policy based on electricity storage from wind and solar is doomed to failure (literally, "lights out").

As I get older I am becoming less optimistic about the future of mankind on this planet. Climate change has nothing to do with this pessimism. The ability of our social media technology to so rapidly create wide-spread and durable belief systems based on utter falsehoods, at the expense of critical thinking, is at the root of it.

If I was a betting man, when it comes to renewable energy I would expect the following:

• Energy consumers are going to increasingly pay through the nose to save the planet; there is zero chance power prices for the masses are ever going to decline on a secular basis no matter what the mix between fossil and green. But we will continue to be fed a diet of hopeful stories of how the cost of renewable power is superior to hydrocarbons, and we are but one (more) technology breakthrough away from the ultimate nirvana of a cheap(er)-energy, zero-carbon world.
• Whether it is carbon taxes, or other levies, governments will continue to use the noble cause of saving the planet to justify increasing this source of revenues; they don't have a choice if we continue with our apparently irrational expectation that governments provide essential public services. And one day the planet will wonder why it wasn't saved (sarc off).
• The private funders of renewable power projects have been making out like bandits on the back of rising consumer prices to pay for government green subsidies and utility offtake contract backstops. If you want to find "high paying, new green economy jobs", look there. Governments are complicit as more of them require utilities to buy the output to meet mandated %'age renewable targets on their grids. BP Capital Partners is but one entity riding this Waimea-sized wave (in this case BP is Boone Pickens, not the oft quoted UK-headquartered BP with the helios sunflower logo). I think the transfer of wealth from utility customers (that's most of us) to the large capital providers is just starting. In due course two-thirds of our power bill will be going to fund the 10% or 15% renewable portion on the grid.
• Most people will never figure out that the installed capacity figures for renewable power being touted in the percentage statistics do not come close to representing the actual available, usable output from these investments. It doesn't further the renewable energy argument, nor the IRRs of the funds providers, to use actual output. A properly operated natural gas turbine generator will have more than 99% up-time. No solar or wind source can come anywhere close to competing with that. In places where wind power output averages at least 50% of installed nameplate capacity, the generators are wildly economic as there is no energy input cost. 50% is regularly achievable in places like Oklahoma, parts of Texas and Kansas. Unfortunately these places are the exception. The part of the planet where I live the long term actual output is ~15% of installed nameplate capacity for the growing number of wind turbine farms. The rest of the time the wind velocities are either too low or too high (see my comment about sizing storage above). But every single statistic I see uses installed nameplate capacity to describe how "green" our grid is.
• Most jurisdictions that prematurely eliminate their fossil backup (coal or gas) will almost certainly experience supply reliability issues. Our "green" politicians will tell us it is virtuous to live this way. Those inclined to disagree will be shouted down as "racist climate change deniers".
• The same wealthy folks that benefit financially from all this will also be the most able to shield or shelter themselves from the negative effects. The rest of us will have to be satisfied with a few renewable-energy ETF units in our meager retirement investment accounts.

In the meantime the world's apparently insatiable appetite for oil shows no signs of abating. Attached a picture I took in the Permian Basin of West Texas last week. It is an example of what is underway. There are six diesel/electric triples (the upper end of the size range for land based drilling rigs) operating simultaneously on a single pad. Each rig will drill three or four long horizontal shale wells, for a total of 18 to 24 wells on the pad. Across the road, on the pad these same six rigs just finished drilling are four complete frac spreads working. Each frac spread has between 14 and 18 pumpers, with 3000 hp per pumper. In my 42 year career in energy I have never seen anything on this scale before. Anywhere. The technologies to do this were developed mostly in the USA, and are as disruptive as anything that has ever come out of Silicon Valley. It has turned the economics and politics of global oil completely on its head. No other place on earth, only the USA, could have pulled off something so unexpected and audacious (forgive my breathless, promotional tone).

Maybe I will be proved completely wrong, and something equally audacious will occur with wind and solar power generation.

[Mega]

Re: Renewables set to outprice oil by 2020?

ER............. we have a problem.......
https://www.autoexpress.co.uk/car-ne...pply-of-cobalt

I think their (wet) dream was we no longer have to buy oil from nation's that might be rude enough to demand payment in non-$ format...............or God forbid GOLD
Sadly the REAL World is catching up with them
Mike

[dcarrigg]

Re: Renewables set to outprice oil by 2020?

I believe that. But I also believe it will be the wealthy and not the local solar contractor or insulation blower that will gain the lions share of the proceeds.

I'll begin with my obligatory cynic warning. Read on at your own risk.

From what I can see, so far, renewable energy may outstrip every previous effort to efficiently transfer wealth from the masses to the few. I'm not talking about the small business owner that comes around and layers some of those mythical "equal-in-cost-to-fossil-fuel" solar panels on your house, or the electrician you hire to wire up the Tesla not-so-supercharger in your garage. They will at least take the funds and use them to pay their suppliers and feed their families (one hopes).

I'm referring to the large scale commercial wind and solar farms. Heretofore these have mostly been funded by private equity and institutional fund managers that are absolutely in love with the government backstops, subsidies and long term incentive contracts the "new green economy" has created for them. In the USA, Canada, Australia, much of Europe and Japan, in particular.

Show me a jurisdiction anywhere in the world that has materially embraced renewable energy where the cost of power to the consumer did not go up. Show me a jurisdiction anywhere in the world where the consumer has benefited in the form of lower utility power costs from this trend (from the linked article): "solar energy costs have continued to come down precipitously for decades--without exception." Really? For whom?

Quoting from the article (while trying not to be irritated by its breathless promotional tone): "The funny thing is, growth of solar has been consistently underestimated over the past decade, with actual installations outstripping projections. This means there’s a fair chance that even the most optimistic current projections might still fall short of reality a decade or two from now."

And: "According to data by the Solar Energy Industries Association (SEIA), U.S.’ cumulative operating solar PV capacity stood at 62.4 GW by the end of 2018--about 75 times the installed capacity just a decade ago--supplying 1 percent of the country’s electricity needs."

I'm not sure if I should laugh, or if that would be considered deliberately impertinent.

Wind and solar power are not available on demand. Nor are they available on a predictable, intermittent schedule either (this is far from a 12 hours on, 12 hours off, day/night problem). And therein lies a very large part of the problem, that goes beyond the technology issues of batteries, brine, pumped hydro storage or hydrogen. It is one of economics (and appropriate for consideration in this forum ).

The intermittent nature of the supply, and the equally intermittent nature of the need to supply from storage means if we are to become dependent on wind and solar energy, and desire reliable on-demand power, the storage generally needs to be quite massive, perhaps multiples of the installed renewable generating supply it is backing. And that, in my view, will be completely impractical capital investment. It will take already expensive renewable energy and make it impossibly so. An energy policy based on electricity storage from wind and solar is doomed to failure (literally, "lights out").

As I get older I am becoming less optimistic about the future of mankind on this planet. Climate change has nothing to do with this pessimism. The ability of our social media technology to so rapidly create wide-spread and durable belief systems based on utter falsehoods, at the expense of critical thinking, is at the root of it.

If I was a betting man, when it comes to renewable energy I would expect the following:

• Energy consumers are going to increasingly pay through the nose to save the planet; there is zero chance power prices for the masses are ever going to decline on a secular basis no matter what the mix between fossil and green. But we will continue to be fed a diet of hopeful stories of how the cost of renewable power is superior to hydrocarbons, and we are but one (more) technology breakthrough away from the ultimate nirvana of a cheap(er)-energy, zero-carbon world.
• Whether it is carbon taxes, or other levies, governments will continue to use the noble cause of saving the planet to justify increasing this source of revenues; they don't have a choice if we continue with our apparently irrational expectation that governments provide essential public services. And one day the planet will wonder why it wasn't saved (sarc off).
• The private funders of renewable power projects have been making out like bandits on the back of rising consumer prices to pay for government green subsidies and utility offtake contract backstops. If you want to find "high paying, new green economy jobs", look there. Governments are complicit as more of them require utilities to buy the output to meet mandated %'age renewable targets on their grids. BP Capital Partners is but one entity riding this Waimea-sized wave (in this case BP is Boone Pickens, not the oft quoted UK-headquartered BP with the helios sunflower logo). I think the transfer of wealth from utility customers (that's most of us) to the large capital providers is just starting. In due course two-thirds of our power bill will be going to fund the 10% or 15% renewable portion on the grid.
• Most people will never figure out that the installed capacity figures for renewable power being touted in the percentage statistics do not come close to representing the actual available, usable output from these investments. It doesn't further the renewable energy argument, nor the IRRs of the funds providers, to use actual output. A properly operated natural gas turbine generator will have more than 99% up-time. No solar or wind source can come anywhere close to competing with that. In places where wind power output averages at least 50% of installed nameplate capacity, the generators are wildly economic as there is no energy input cost. 50% is regularly achievable in places like Oklahoma, parts of Texas and Kansas. Unfortunately these places are the exception. The part of the planet where I live the long term actual output is ~15% of installed nameplate capacity for the growing number of wind turbine farms. The rest of the time the wind velocities are either too low or too high (see my comment about sizing storage above). But every single statistic I see uses installed nameplate capacity to describe how "green" our grid is.
• Most jurisdictions that prematurely eliminate their fossil backup (coal or gas) will almost certainly experience supply reliability issues. Our "green" politicians will tell us it is virtuous to live this way. Those inclined to disagree will be shouted down as "racist climate change deniers".
• The same wealthy folks that benefit financially from all this will also be the most able to shield or shelter themselves from the negative effects. The rest of us will have to be satisfied with a few renewable-energy ETF units in our meager retirement investment accounts.

In the meantime the world's apparently insatiable appetite for oil shows no signs of abating. Attached a picture I took in the Permian Basin of West Texas last week. It is an example of what is underway. There are six diesel/electric triples (the upper end of the size range for land based drilling rigs) operating simultaneously on a single pad. Each rig will drill three or four long horizontal shale wells, for a total of 18 to 24 wells on the pad. Across the road, on the pad these same six rigs just finished drilling are four complete frac spreads working. Each frac spread has between 14 and 18 pumpers, with 3000 hp per pumper. In my 42 year career in energy I have never seen anything on this scale before. Anywhere. The technologies to do this were developed mostly in the USA, and are as disruptive as anything that has ever come out of Silicon Valley. It has turned the economics and politics of global oil completely on its head. No other place on earth, only the USA, could have pulled off something so unexpected and audacious (forgive my breathless, promotional tone).

Maybe I will be proved completely wrong, and something equally audacious will occur with wind and solar power generation.

I have more to say about this. I'll try to get a proper response in later in the week. Pressed for time now. Just know that I agree with a lot of what you wrote...because it's factually true. And there are more methods of regressive wealth transfer than you listed. I'll write back more thoughtfully soon.

[Mega]

Re: Renewables set to outprice oil by 2020?

On with the WET dream
https://www.autocar.co.uk/car-news/i...ast-ev-charger