AOC, Nixon would be shocked!

[dcarrigg]

Re: AOC, Nixon would be shocked!

If I were a betting person, I’d bet Amazon’s headcount in Virginia exceed expectations.

Possibly far exceed expectations.

To reiterate, I worked at Amazon in the early days and retain good communication with many of my then peers.

Amazon Web Services(AWS) is the biggest single driver of profit/growth for the company.

CIA/DOD have approved AWS for secure cloud computing and broader government will follow.

If AWS converts 25% of government IT services to AWS, things could still go hockeystick on headcount.

Even if the greater economy slows down or contracts there is still growth to be found in contracted cost savings.

What may become an issue is if Amazon’s 3/1 job destruction to creation ratio continues and carries over into government as well.

On the one hand, smaller government advocates may be happy.

But on the other hand, where are the new jobs for out of work retail workers(Amazon), out of work government IT workers(Amazon), etc.?

These changes are happening and will continue to happen.

But if the change is too rapid, then we get OCS pandering to those with excessive student debt without a job to pay it back, nor cover healthcare or housing ownership.

You may be right. But history tells me to be suspicious of hockey sticks. Exponential trends tend to hit walls. I'm betting that we've already passed the point of no return. It's not something I wanted. And I'm not sure which way things will break. But there's just too many events transpiring that haven't in a hundred years. Record voter turnout. Wildcat teachers strikes in the south. A resurrection of socialism. Largest deficit since WWII. Greatest ecological crisis since the dust bowl. Basic infrastructure in dire need of repairs. You get the idea. And we're actively making the system more regressive and ratcheting up the tension.

Anyways, these sorts of things tend to have a momentum. I certainly didn't think anything like this going into the last downturn. Going into this one, I think we're going to see much more drastic change than before. And I don't suspect it'll come easy.

I don't doubt that you know the technology or the business better than I do. I just think the legal environment is about to change in a way more profound than most people's living memories are accustomed to. Good be an absolute boon for Amazon. Could be a rout. But if we're both kicking around 15 years from now, I doubt it'll look anything like projections today.

[lakedaemonian]

Re: AOC, Nixon would be shocked!

You may be right. But history tells me to be suspicious of hockey sticks. Exponential trends tend to hit walls. I'm betting that we've already passed the point of no return. It's not something I wanted. And I'm not sure which way things will break. But there's just too many events transpiring that haven't in a hundred years. Record voter turnout. Wildcat teachers strikes in the south. A resurrection of socialism. Largest deficit since WWII. Greatest ecological crisis since the dust bowl. Basic infrastructure in dire need of repairs. You get the idea. And we're actively making the system more regressive and ratcheting up the tension.

Anyways, these sorts of things tend to have a momentum. I certainly didn't think anything like this going into the last downturn. Going into this one, I think we're going to see much more drastic change than before. And I don't suspect it'll come easy.

I don't doubt that you know the technology or the business better than I do. I just think the legal environment is about to change in a way more profound than most people's living memories are accustomed to. Good be an absolute boon for Amazon. Could be a rout. But if we're both kicking around 15 years from now, I doubt it'll look anything like projections today.

I actually think we are on the same page in some respects.

There are a few high impact early stage Amazon employees(I don’t consider myself one) who now think of Amazon much the same as well as thought of WalMart circa 1998......bring down “The Man”.

In many more respects, Amazon is now “The Man”, heck 20 years ago WalMart had only just started to push hard outside of its core territory with limited presence in many major US markets.

I remember the breakup of Ma Bell as a kid.

It was necessary to bring in both innovation and end user cost reduction. Heck, I remember the telephone stores in the early 80’s where you could finally purchase something other than the standard phone that Josef Stalin and Mao would have approved.

But this time is different.

I view it as a binary choice where we may have to select the lesser of two evils.

Amazon is relentlessly increasing consumer value at the cost of 2 legacy economy jobs lost for every 1 Amazon hire.

What happens if Elizabeth Warren’s tech-buster narrative gains traction?

Break up FAANG+(Facebook, Amazon, Apple, Netflix, Google)?

What if FAANG+ are already like the commercial Army, Navy, Air Force, Marines, Coast Guard?

We live in a dystopian Rollerball(1975) world.

Run by oversimplistic hybrid corporate states(in Rollerball it was Energy Corp).

The two questions I have are:

1) Do we accept FAANG+ as our hybrid corporate overlords or do we allow Warren to bust them?

2) If we bust FAANG+, how do we stop BAT(Baidu, Alibaba, Tencent, Huewai) from backfilling the global void?

I’m increasingly of the belief that I’d rather control the dominant global platform, rather than the dominant global currency.

An argument can easily be made that busting globally dominant commercial platforms that are US domiciled might be detrimental to aggregate US influence, power, and wealth(acknowledging that it is far too unevenly distributed) in the future.

Break up Facebook into FB, WhatsApp, and Instagram.

Break up Amazon into Amazon, Marketplace, and AWS.

But the most dangerous course of action might look like BAT+H filling the void or just outcompeting deFAANGed in a commercial, diplomatic, economic, and political “combined arms” effort with the Chinese government.

And we perhaps wind up in 20 years with WeChat as a requirement for travel outside the North America.

Exhorbitant Network/Data > exhorbitant privilege

Lesser of two evils?

Or is there a high probability option C?

[dcarrigg]

Re: AOC, Nixon would be shocked!

Question is whether global is the medium term future, I think. Every major power bloc is deploying their own GPS systems and legislating around the internet differently. As the US declines in relative power and economic strength, which will continue so long as we keep up the status quo around enriching the wealthy and inheritors at the expense of workers and merit, I see no good reason why a fractured, multi-polar world with a multiple forked internet wouldn't arise.

More than that, I for one am awful sick of the model of west coast VC and internet dominance. I'd like to try having a competing local intranet, maybe at the state level, disconnected from the valley. I think exit is a good strategy given the realities of the last decade. Maybe I'm nuts. But if the big tech companies are gonna drop "don't be evil" as their motto and make people's lives worse, I don't see why they should expect cooperation.

Just like I use old forums and not Facebook or Instagram, I'd be happy to take any avenue out, were it presented to me. I think national leaders might well have similar thoughts. Even if the products are substandard, at least they're enriching locals. Even if both exist side by side to begin with, once you lose the monopoly and have redundant networks, you can start regulating the hell out of the foreign one without disruption.

I mean, they pull all our talent out of MIT and the Ivies, the invest next to nothing here, they hurt our local business and government, and Amazon just snubbed NY hard. If west coast folks think northeastern folk are gonna take it lying down, they haven't interacted with many of us. And that's just in the US. People are used to business without resistance. But the 90s and 00s are over. Disruption is gonna go from cool to dangerous, and fast. It didn't have to be this way. But now it is.

[dcarrigg]

Re: AOC, Nixon would be shocked!

Speaking of which, the college bribery scandal coming out the same day Manafort goes down because he literally couldn't buy enough mansions and ostrich feather coats is really an explar day for our times. I'm frankly kind of shocked they put Aunt Becky in bracelets, never mind the rest of the celebs and CEOs. You figure of all the kids, Eric Trump got into Georgetown on his own merit & SAT scores? I'm just kidding around a little. But it's just one more way the elite lie, cheat, and steal. Every slot that could have gone to a kid by merit that a less talented kid with wealthier parents takes by bribery just takes a sledgehammer to social mobility and meritocracy. And this ain't even the tip of the iceberg.