AOC, Nixon would be shocked!

[dcarrigg]

Re: AOC, Nixon would be shocked!

I think you're gonna see more of this sort of thing, and not just in the US. Folks on the left are very tired that folks on the right can get up on stage and say they'll abolish 5 or 6 of the 14 federal departments with no plan of how to do it or even any good reason why and be applauded and taken seriously.

There's a growing group who recognizes that facts don't matter, and figures turn around is fair play. I seriously don't see the Green New Deal proposal she put out as any whackier than a run of the mill Rick Perry or Rand Paul presidential platform plank. That's not to say I don't think it's got some whacky ideas in it. But it's no crazier than proposing to abolish the department that handles the nukes with no plan for no reason in 2012, then being named secretary of that same department in 2016.

People are used to asymmetrical intensity of pie in the sky proposals. Mexico's paying for the wall. You can have a Brexit deal and supply and confidence from the DUP at the same time. You can be a neoliberal hero without a party, push a bunch of regressive policies, and not face Nationwide revolt. Seems to me pie in the sky ideas aren't localized to the left, nor even to the extremes of the left and right.

Speaking of centrists, how's old Tony Blair doing anyways? You think his affair with that Chinese spy wife was worth his relationship with Murdoch? Word is she's getting it on with Bad Vlad now too. And maybe Eric Schmidt. The CCP hit a gold mine with that one. Also looks possible Epstein's dirty laundry might get partially aired. Lots of centrists might be going down if those Lolita Express flight logs are any indication.

We live in increasingly interesting times, that's for certain. History is coming back, and in a big way.

[dcarrigg]

Re: AOC, Nixon would be shocked!

Anyways, Jeremy Grantham touched on this in a CNBC interview yesterday. I'm on mobile so I'm having trouble linking to it. Maybe someone on PC can post it for us. But his thinking aligns with my own to a fair degree, and I thought it was a good and interesting interview. Should check it out.

[jk]

Re: AOC, Nixon would be shocked!

Anyways, Jeremy Grantham touched on this in a CNBC interview yesterday. I'm on mobile so I'm having trouble linking to it. Maybe someone on PC can post it for us. But his thinking aligns with my own to a fair degree, and I thought it was a good and interesting interview. Should check it out.

https://www.cnbc.com/video/2019/03/0...-grantham.html

[vt]

Re: AOC, Nixon would be shocked!

DC, while AMZN may not add 25,000 jobs in New York they still are on track to add 25,000 in Virginia. And don't forget
the build out of these 25,000 will likely take 15 years or more.

The potential demographic growth boost starting in about 5 years of less may fill out the 25,000 that NY lost.
They may add 10,000 more in Virginia, add some in Tennessee. The other 15,000 may go to Atlanta or some other eastern
location. All this taking place over 15 plus years.

We may see Amazon Health added to all the things Amazon does now. There are a number of industries they can disrupt.
Plenty of places they can improve on.

[dcarrigg]

Re: AOC, Nixon would be shocked!

Vt, come on, the bid they put out was for a second HQ at over 50k jobs. Over 200 cities applied. Then it was this split deal at almost 25k each. Then they cut back office space and jobs on the west coast. Then they announced they weren't doing NYC.

GE said they'd move their HQ to Boston at the same time. After the winter market downturn, they reneged on their plans too. At least they didn't blame Warren or something. But it's not just AMZN. Job growth nationwide nearly ground to a halt in February. Lofty expansion plans hatched in 2017 and 2018 are being pared back across the board. I'm not saying that you should hate on AMZN. But I wouldn't count your chickens just yet if I were a Virginian.

[vt]

Re: AOC, Nixon would be shocked!

Come on DC. you said 50K jobs. I just said they would do 25K over 15 years plus. That's a long time, and a lot of economic growth can take place.

Will they still do 25K? NY and AOC has given Bezos time to relax and see which region really wants jobs and not some pie in the sky failed
economic engineering.

There's a millennial generation that wants jobs, and has the energy and tech skills to handle them. They won't put up with a crazy ex bartender
keeping them from growing their careers and families.

We all want a clean enviroment, social opportunity for all races, creeds, and both genders. We also want economic opportunity.

[Thailandnotes]

Re: AOC, Nixon would be shocked!

DC/VA/MD has some of the worst traffic in the US. At 3 AM you can get to Richmond in less than two hours. In the afternoon, it can take six or seven. Most of the people I know in northern VA. who opposed the AMZN plan were focused on the impact on infrastructure. That area is also one of the most expensive places to drive per mile. The EZ-pass toll roads fees can be exorbitant at times. The tax give aways to billionaire sports team owners are just to tip of the iceberg. Warren is way ahead of herself talking antitrust & AMZN, but the revolution is coming and it will be televised.

[vt]

Re: AOC, Nixon would be shocked!

I've lived in the Washington area all my life. No way anywhere close to 6 hours in rush hour.

You can drive 25 miles in from Loudoun to Tysons in 45 minutes in rush hour. Most employees will live in work in Virginia.

The subway and buses in Arlington where Amazon will be work effectively. The area they are building in has been under utilized for years.

[Mega]

Re: AOC, Nixon would be shocked!

Getting back to AOC, her job was to do her best for the people she reps...................she blew it!
She came up with zip & can't deal............now it looks like she been up to no good...............just how bad the damage is is tough to call right now...........but if she found with more crap than she toast.

Mike

[dcarrigg]

Re: AOC, Nixon would be shocked!

Come on DC. you said 50K jobs. I just said they would do 25K over 15 years plus. That's a long time, and a lot of economic growth can take place.

Will they still do 25K? NY and AOC has given Bezos time to relax and see which region really wants jobs and not some pie in the sky failed
economic engineering.

There's a millennial generation that wants jobs, and has the energy and tech skills to handle them. They won't put up with a crazy ex bartender
keeping them from growing their careers and families.

We all want a clean enviroment, social opportunity for all races, creeds, and both genders. We also want economic opportunity.

The deal was $5 bn on construction for over 50k jobs by 2025 just a few months ago in 2018. Now it's down to $1.5 bn on construction for 25k jobs by 2034.

Pray they don't alter it further...

[dcarrigg]

Re: AOC, Nixon would be shocked!

Last thing on this is about Schultz. He did an sxsw interview. He has no ideas. The neoliberal dream of the 1990s was real. Everyone an entrepreneur. Borderless transfers of capital and ideas. It sounded great. But we tried it. It didn't work. Despite all the tax cuts for the rich, growth has slowed. Slowest sustained pace in American history. Meanwhile hope shrunk. To a large extent the socialist revival you're so concerned about is built off desperation, not aspiration. People are stressed they cannot hold a secure job nor a house nor healthcare nor provide school for their kids. Wanting those things is not about envy. It's about the fact the basics have become unaffordable. Homes people born in the 60s could afford are totally out of the question unaffordable for people born in the 80s. Regards of how hard they work. And the chickens are coming home to roost. Meanwhile "centrists" think there is no problem.

[Thailandnotes]

Re: AOC, Nixon would be shocked!

I've lived in the Washington area all my life. No way anywhere close to 6 hours in rush hour.

You can drive 25 miles in from Loudoun to Tysons in 45 minutes in rush hour. Most employees will live in work in Virginia.

The subway and buses in Arlington where Amazon will be work effectively. The area they are building in has been under utilized for years.

Maybe it's been awhile. Parents lived in a retirement in Woodbridge. The trip from Alexandria which google maps says is 20 minutes could often take 90 minutes, another 90 minutes to get Fredricksburg, another 60 to Richmond. This is what we planned on leaving in the afternoon. Average speed...about 20 mph.

[Mega]

Re: AOC, Nixon would be shocked!

............they will be the last to understand that things have changed

[vt]

Re: AOC, Nixon would be shocked!

Interstate 95 is a total zoo during rush hour. Avoid that area at all costs when an incident causes a major blockage.
You must have hit it at a bad time.

A younger friend drives into my office from there every day. Rarely takes more than an hour, most times as good as 45 minutes.

Self driving vehicles will take a huge amount of traffic off the road and save us a lot of money.

[lakedaemonian]

Re: AOC, Nixon would be shocked!

Vt, come on, the bid they put out was for a second HQ at over 50k jobs. Over 200 cities applied. Then it was this split deal at almost 25k each. Then they cut back office space and jobs on the west coast. Then they announced they weren't doing NYC.

GE said they'd move their HQ to Boston at the same time. After the winter market downturn, they reneged on their plans too. At least they didn't blame Warren or something. But it's not just AMZN. Job growth nationwide nearly ground to a halt in February. Lofty expansion plans hatched in 2017 and 2018 are being pared back across the board. I'm not saying that you should hate on AMZN. But I wouldn't count your chickens just yet if I were a Virginian.

If I were a betting person, I’d bet Amazon’s headcount in Virginia exceed expectations.

Possibly far exceed expectations.

To reiterate, I worked at Amazon in the early days and retain good communication with many of my then peers.

Amazon Web Services(AWS) is the biggest single driver of profit/growth for the company.

CIA/DOD have approved AWS for secure cloud computing and broader government will follow.

If AWS converts 25% of government IT services to AWS, things could still go hockeystick on headcount.

Even if the greater economy slows down or contracts there is still growth to be found in contracted cost savings.

What may become an issue is if Amazon’s 3/1 job destruction to creation ratio continues and carries over into government as well.

On the one hand, smaller government advocates may be happy.

But on the other hand, where are the new jobs for out of work retail workers(Amazon), out of work government IT workers(Amazon), etc.?

These changes are happening and will continue to happen.

But if the change is too rapid, then we get OCS pandering to those with excessive student debt without a job to pay it back, nor cover healthcare or housing ownership.