Look what Vlad got for Xmas

[Mega]

[thriftyandboringinohio]

Re: Look what Vlad got for Xmas

Maybe. Russia has a long track record of claiming new weapons that don't really exist, or only exist as a couple prototypes.
Look at top performance fighter jets. Russia gets a lot of press coverage of the SU-57 (sometimes called PAK FA) as a high technology marvel.
But the total number built is ten flyable prototypes.

Fall back one generation to the SU 37 and its cousin the SU 27M and there have been about 126 aircraft built.
The US equivalent fleet of latest generation fighters are the F-35 and F-22, the US has built something like 515 of them.

Russia has some truly great engineers and scientists and they build some highly capable gear. But not very much of it.
If the avangard does actually exist I doubt many will be built or deployed any time soon.

[dcarrigg]

Re: Look what Vlad got for Xmas

Sounds to me like Uncle Vova's telling Donny to ditch Johnny. Rest is noise.

[lakedaemonian]

Re: Look what Vlad got for Xmas

Maybe. Russia has a long track record of claiming new weapons that don't really exist, or only exist as a couple prototypes.
Look at top performance fighter jets. Russia gets a lot of press coverage of the SU-57 (sometimes called PAK FA) as a high technology marvel.
But the total number built is ten flyable prototypes.

Fall back one generation to the SU 37 and its cousin the SU 27M and there have been about 126 aircraft built.
The US equivalent fleet of latest generation fighters are the F-35 and F-22, the US has built something like 515 of them.

Russia has some truly great engineers and scientists and they build some highly capable gear. But not very much of it.
If the avangard does actually exist I doubt many will be built or deployed any time soon.

Russia simply can’t afford to purchase any of the next gen weapon systems it has in development.

SU-57 is still in development, it’s planned engines are 5-10 years away, and can’t afford them. They are nowhere near c9mbat ready. They are glorified prototypes with old engines.

Armata tank/IFV family, can’t afford them. Still in development.

S400/500 SAM systems seem solid(performance and export cashflow) but S300 which they are based on have been thoroughly compromised in the West.

Other modern Russian SAM systems have been reportedly overwhelmed and performed poorly against insurgent drone swarms.

Russian aircraft carrier Admiral Kuznetsov was seriously damaged when its dry dock ship just sank. That’s after it’s highly embarrassing deployment to Syria smoking like an 1800’s coal powered factory.

Russian ship and sub numbers have collapsed and not likely to recover, likely ever.

Russia’s military is a mess, exacerbated by its perpetual shift to a professional versus conscript force, economic malaise, rampant corruption/cronyism, and need to win both the propaganda and export arms sales wars.

It would be nice if everyone would invest money in national infrastructure instead of engaging in another round of Cold War 2.0 that is more fake than an Instagram influencer’s staged photos.

[GRG55]

Re: Look what Vlad got for Xmas

Russia simply can’t afford to purchase any of the next gen weapon systems it has in development.

SU-57 is still in development, it’s planned engines are 5-10 years away, and can’t afford them. They are nowhere near c9mbat ready. They are glorified prototypes with old engines.

Armata tank/IFV family, can’t afford them. Still in development.

S400/500 SAM systems seem solid(performance and export cashflow) but S300 which they are based on have been thoroughly compromised in the West.

Other modern Russian SAM systems have been reportedly overwhelmed and performed poorly against insurgent drone swarms.

Russian aircraft carrier Admiral Kuznetsov was seriously damaged when its dry dock ship just sank. That’s after it’s highly embarrassing deployment to Syria smoking like an 1800’s coal powered factory.

Russian ship and sub numbers have collapsed and not likely to recover, likely ever.

Russia’s military is a mess, exacerbated by its perpetual shift to a professional versus conscript force, economic malaise, rampant corruption/cronyism, and need to win both the propaganda and export arms sales wars.

It would be nice if everyone would invest money in national infrastructure instead of engaging in another round of Cold War 2.0 that is more fake than an Instagram influencer’s staged photos.

I've never been able to figure out why so many media types persist in crediting Russia with so much capability. Capability that is compared to be on par with, or superior to the USA in particular. The US might have its problems, but betting against its military and/or against its economy seems bloody lousy odds.

Maybe people are dazzled by Russia's remarkable abilities to lace tea with polonium in broad daylight in Piccadilly?

Russia today is a nation behaving in ways that are doing tremendous damage to global affairs. If the US can goad it into enough simultaneous foreign military adventures (like leaving it mired in Syria, while the Turks shoot down its jets) it'll be Phase III of its ongoing economic collapse. In this age any nation where life expectancy is declining is in serious trouble.

[thriftyandboringinohio]

Re: Look what Vlad got for Xmas

I've never been able to figure out why so many media types persist in crediting Russia with so much capability. ....

Nothing new about that. In 1954 the American public was fed the idea of the "bomber gap" . First lots of newspapers were sold to a worried public, then fleets of expensive aircraft were purchased.
In 1958 we had the "missile gap". More newspapers were sold, school children performed duck-and-cover drills, and fleets of expensive ICBMs were purchased.

In 1936 Marine Corps Major General Smedley Butler told us:

"War is a racket. It always has been. It is possibly the oldest, easily the most profitable, surely the most vicious. It is the only one international in scope. It is the only one in which the profits are reckoned in dollars and the losses in lives. A racket is best described, I believe, as something that is not what it seems to the majority of the people. Only a small 'inside' group knows what it is about. It is conducted for the benefit of the very few, at the expense of the very many. Out of war a few people make huge fortunes."

[jk]

Re: Look what Vlad got for Xmas

In this age any nation where life expectancy is declining is in serious trouble.

so that includes russia and the unitied states [latest decline is 3rd in a row]. anywhere else?

[Southernguy]

Re: Look what Vlad got for Xmas

so that includes russia and the unitied states [latest decline is 3rd in a row]. anywhere else?

Argenzuela?

[dcarrigg]

Re: Look what Vlad got for Xmas

so that includes russia and the unitied states [latest decline is 3rd in a row]. anywhere else?

Behold, the fruits of accelerating economic inequality:

[jk]

Re: Look what Vlad got for Xmas

netherlands and germany are the most surprising. what year are these numbers, dc? i'm wondering about the effect of all the new immigrants possibly skewing the data.

[dcarrigg]

Re: Look what Vlad got for Xmas

netherlands and germany are the most surprising. what year are these numbers, dc? i'm wondering about the effect of all the new immigrants possibly skewing the data.

Study was published Aug 2018 based on calendar year 2014-2015 data from official national statistical sources (e.g. HHS in the US or Stats Portugal in Portugal, etc).

Most high income countries in our sample experienced declines in life expectancy during 2014-15. Of the 18 countries, 12 experienced a decline at birth for women, and 11 experienced a decline for men. These declines were fairly large in magnitude, amounting to 0.21 years on average for women and 0.18 years on average for men. The declines ranged from 0.03 years (Sweden) to 0.55 years (Italy) for women and from 0.003 years (Belgium) to 0.43 years (Italy) for men. In most of the countries that experienced declines, these declines were actually larger than those observed in the USA

They tried to get at the cause. But it's not all opiates and flu.

[lakedaemonian]

Re: Look what Vlad got for Xmas

Behold, the fruits of accelerating economic inequality:

Wait until we see the benefits of genomic medicine.

Veritas Genomics broke the $999 genome sequencing number 2 years ago.

They just ran a $199 Xmas special that sold out in 6 hours.

In 5 years it will cost $99.

Personalised genomic medicine, CRISPR chemical scalpel, stem cell therapy, etc has the potential to add 10-20 years in the next 10-20 years, for those who can afford it.

How much will it cost? Everything!

Back in the days of the robber barrons, they may have had all the money, but they died just like the poor.

Now we are seeing death pushed back bit by bit, and 70’s as the new 40’s for the 1%.

A whole portfolio of incremental life style, nutrition, exercise science, and pharmacological improvements adding up to a gap more important than wealth, life expectancy.

[dcarrigg]

Re: Look what Vlad got for Xmas

Wait until we see the benefits of genomic medicine.

Veritas Genomics broke the $999 genome sequencing number 2 years ago.

They just ran a $199 Xmas special that sold out in 6 hours.

In 5 years it will cost $99.

Personalised genomic medicine, CRISPR chemical scalpel, stem cell therapy, etc has the potential to add 10-20 years in the next 10-20 years, for those who can afford it.

How much will it cost? Everything!

Back in the days of the robber barrons, they may have had all the money, but they died just like the poor.

Now we are seeing death pushed back bit by bit, and 70’s as the new 40’s for the 1%.

A whole portfolio of incremental life style, nutrition, exercise science, and pharmacological improvements adding up to a gap more important than wealth, life expectancy.

Yeah, I suspect it'll be a little slower and a little less steep, but I agree on the same general trend and direction. Already, the wealthy and powerful fool the plebs with cosmetic surgery like they never had before. This is partly why we're getting so many 70-something politicians and 50-or-so "young entrepreneurs." Because they can pretty well with cosmetics and a little surgery make people look about 10 or 20 years younger, if a little weird. I mean, this was about 20 years ago when they were ~30. If these guys weren't rich, they wouldn't look like they do today...